How soon? Never bro. Turkey is a member of NATO and is protected by nuclear shield. No country now will become a nuclear weapons state. The negatives i.e. sanctions etc are far too high of a price to pay.
@cabatli_53
Not quite. The
‘Nuclear Threshol’ is a more subtle way but equally effective.
A “screwdriver's turn” it’s good enough…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program#De_facto_nuclear_state
Ankara ‘adds’ uranium clause in nuclear deal with Tokyo (January/08/2014)
Turkey wants technology of ‘Zenit’ launch vehicle ?
Quote :
Nuclear Power in Turkey (2016 World Nuclear Association, London, United Kingdom)
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Akkuyu
TETAS called for tenders in March 2008, inviting bids for the first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, near the port of Mersin in Mersin province on the eastern Mediterranean coast. TAEK issued specifications, allowing for PWR, BWR or PHWR types of at least 600 MWe and with 40-year service life. Design certification in country of origin was acceptable, allowing TAEK to concentrate on site-specific aspects of the 4800 MWe project. In the event, only one bid was received from 14 interested parties, this being from Atomstroyexport in conjunction with Inter RAO (both from Russia) and Park Teknik (Turkey), for an AES-2006 power plant with four 1200 MWe reactors. After some deliberation, TAEK found that it met technical criteria. (It was later reported that TAEK required foreign vendors to take back used fuel, and none except ASE were prepared to do so.)
Following commercial advice from TETAS, a government decision was expected in April 2009, but in fact only a series of statements resulted, regarding the cost of power over the first 15 years being too high. Then in August 2009 two agreements between TAEK and Rosatom were signed with much fanfare. One was a nuclear cooperation agreement, the other was a standard one on the early notification on a nuclear accident and the exchange of information on nuclear facilities. These progressed the possibility of a Russian nuclear project at Akkuyu, probably with 25% government equity to dampen the likely electricity price rise. The first reactor was expected to come on line in 2016, and others in 2017, 2018 and 2019. However, following a ruling by the country's top legal body, TETAS canceled the Atomstroyexport proposal and said that a new tender would be launched soon. In fact, the parties proceeded to a direct high-level agreement instead.
In May 2010 Russian and Turkish heads of state signed an intergovernmental agreement for Rosatom to build, own and operate (BOO) the Akkuyu nuclear power plant of four 1200 MWe AES-2006 units as a US$ 20 billion project. This will be its first foreign plant on that BOO basis. Rosatom, through Atomstroyexport and Inter RAO UES, will finance the project and start off with 100% equity in the Turkish Akkuyu project company (APC) set up to build, own, operate and decommission the plant. The project company became Akkuyu NPP JSC (Akkuyu Nukleer Santral/ NGS Elektrik Uretim AS) in 2011. Longer-term, Rosatom entities intend to retain at least 51% of the company. The Turkish firm Park Teknik and state generation company Elektrik Uretim AS (EUAS) are expected to take up significant shares. In May 2013 Rosatom invited EdF to become an equity partner in the project. Meanwhile, EUAS transferred the site to the project company.
In July 2010 parliament ratified the May agreement for 4800 MWe at Akkuyu, and in November the Russian parliament ratified it. The project company was registered in December 2011, and by mid 2012 the equity position was Rosenergoatom concern 92.85%, InterRAO UES 3.47%*, Atomstroyexport 3.47%, and 0.1% each for Atomenergoremont and Atomtechenergo. In October 2013 Rusatom Overseas was made responsible for the main Russian involvement in the project, as majority owner and manager, apparently taking over Rosenergoatom and Atomstroyexport equity. InterRAO UES reduced its holding to 0.8% in April 2014. A 49% non-Russian strategic investor was being sought, and early in 2014 this was still on offer. Late in 2012 JSC Akkuyu NPP quoted the cost as $18.7 billion, and in December Russia's President announced that Russia would fully finance the project to more than $20 billion. Turkey's prime minister said that the equity capital of the JSC Akkuyu NPP would be increased to $2.4 billion, and the overall investment in the project would total $22 billion. Rusatom will supply the fuel.
* In February 2015 Russia's Inter RAO said it would not participate in an authorized capital share issue of JSC Akkuyu Nuclear and would decrease its shares in the company from 1.15% to 0.5%. The equity position then was: Rusatom Overseas (64.96%), Rosenergoatom (30.66%), AtomStroyExport (3.17%), Atomenergoremont (0.03%) and Atomtechenergo (0.03%).
TETAS will buy a fixed proportion of the power at a fixed price of US$ 12.35 cents/kWh for 15 years, or to 2030. The proportion will be 70% of the output of the first two units and 30% of that from units 3&4 over 15 years from commercial operation of each. The remainder of the power will be sold by the project company on the open market. After 15 years, when the plant is expected to be paid off, the project company will pay 20% of the profits to the Turkish government. (These sovereign guarantees are not on offer for the Sinop plant.)
The project company was to apply for all licences within 12 months, and the first reactor is to be on line within seven years of receiving these, with the others to follow at one-year intervals. By mid-2012 Rosatom said that the cost could be $25 billion. In December 2011 the project company had filed applications for construction permits and a power generation licence. In mid-2012 the company had received a site licence, and it let the first major contract for site works in February 2013. Another site licence was received in January 2014. A revised environmental impact assessment (EIS) was re-submitted in July 2014 – the fourth time, and approved at the end of November. The Energy Market Regulatory Authority granted a 36-month pre-licence for the project in June 2015, allowing some preparatory activities and permits pending the production licence. Atomstroyexport is general contractor for construction.
The company expected to commission the first unit in 2021, though in March 2015 the energy minister suggested 2022 as the earliest possible date. In April 2015 at the site inauguration ceremony he said construction would begin at the end of 2016. Some $1.3 billion expenditure on the project was budgeted by Rosatom for 2013.
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Uranium and fuel cycle
Turkey has modest uranium resources. The Temrezli deposit in the central Anatolian region 220 km east of Ankara was discovered by the Department of Energy, Raw Material and Exploration (MTA) in the early 1980s. MTA continued to explore the region for the next 10 years. Regional towns of Yozgat and Sorgun are nearby.
US-based Uranium Resources Inc. (URI) is planning to develop the Temrezli ISL mine. Australian-based Anatolia Energy Ltd* had a 100% interest in 18 exploration licences which included the Temrezli project. Project activities were undertaken by A Dur Madencilik Ltd (Adur), a wholly-owned subsidiary. In June 2015 URI took over Anatolia Energy Ltd.**
* Anatolia Uranium Pty Ltd (AUL) had 65% ownership of the Temrezli project, with parent company Anatolia Energy directly holding 35%. AUL was an incorporated JV but ownership was rationalised in 2012-13. In February 2014 Azarga Resources, parent company of Powertech Uranium, increased its holding to a 15% share in Anatolia Energy.
** In June 2015 Anatolia announced a merger with Colorado-based URI, with uranium projects in Texas. It is technically a takeover, so that the Turkish projects will be under URI, which will contribute experienced staff and a treatment plant.
A preliminary economic assessment of the Temrezli ISL uranium project was published in June 2013 and updated in May 2014, based on NI 43-101 figures. It found that costs would compare favourably with other (US) ISL projects. Measured resources at Temrezli are 2351 tU, indicated resources are 2004 tU, and inferred resources 732 tU, at 0.117%U, 0.092%U, and 0.075%U respectively at the end of 2013. The Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources has awarded a production licence for the project, and a pre-feasibility study was completed in February 2015. With initial capital cost of $41 million, 3800 tU could be recovered over 12 years at $16.89/lb U3O8, giving project payback in less than one year. Subject to finance, a development decision is expected, with prospective production start late in 2016.
URI commenced a pre-feasibility optimization study of the Temrezli ISL project in 2015, and expects to complete this late in 2016. It is also pushing forward on permitting-related issues, and preparing to move the Rosita treatment plant from Texas to Temrezli. The company expects project approvals from the government by mid-2017, so that an investment decision can be made and construction can then begin.
URI’s Sefaatli uranium project has significant uranium mineralisation discovered in the 1980s, and an intensive drilling program on the Delier prospect is defining resources. Tulu Tepe is also prospective in that project area, 5 km southwest of Delier. A third prospect is Akcami, 2 km west of Tulu Tepe. The three cover 15 sq km. Sefaatli may be operated as a satellite of Temrezli (35 km away). The company also has a tenement holding in the West Sorgun area.
The Rosatom agreement for Akkuyu provides for setting up a fuel fabrication plant in Turkey.
Wastes
Though originally TAEK (Turkish Atomic Energy Authority) required reactor vendors to take back used fuel, the question of whether used fuel for Akkuyu will remain in Turkey or be repatriated to Russia in line with normal practice for Russian plants in non-weapons states had not been settled.
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Turkey’s Nuclear Power Plans and Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options (PDF)
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