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TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in two months

F-22Raptor

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TAIPEI -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on Thursday confirmed it has suspended processing new orders from key customer Huawei to comply with U.S. export regulations, but said it can still achieve more than 20% revenue growth this year thanks to strong demand for 5G smartphones, infrastructure and high-performance computing applications.

The world's biggest contract chipmaker also said it is ramping up its capital spending for 2020, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

"We are complying fully with the new [U.S.] regulations. We did not take any new orders [from Huawei] since May 15," TSMC Chairman Mark Liu told an investors conference, confirming an earlier report by the Nikkei Asian Review. "Although the regulation just finished its public comment period, the BIS [Bureau of Industry and Security] did not make a final ruling change. Under this circumstance, we do not plan to ship wafers [to Huawei] after Sept. 14."


Under the tightened export control rule, non-U.S. chip companies must apply for licenses to use American technology and tools to supply to Huawei, the biggest Chinese tech company. TSMC and other chipmakers were not allowed to process new orders from Huawei or its chip design arm Hisilicon after May 15 without a license and must ship any orders already in the pipeline before Sept 14.

Liu did not say if TSMC plans to apply for licenses to ship to Huawei. A TSMC spokesperson said the chairman's comment is based on current rules and it is not clear whether there will be any further regulation changes from the U.S. government, given that the comment period just ended a few days ago.

Liu said TSMC is working closely with other clients to make full use of the company's capacity. "We are progressing relatively well in our capacity that has been left open."

TSMC forecast its revenue for July-September could reach $11.2 billion to $11.5 billion, up more than 20.7% at the midpoint from a year ago, exceeding the market consensus of around NT$ 315.67 billion ($10.7 billion). The Taiwanese chip titan raised its revenue growth target to over 20% for all of 2020 and said it will further increase its capital expenditure to up to $17 billion this year, from the previously planned $15 billion to $16 billion.

The industry bellwether said its financial performance has proved resilient amid the coronavirus pandemic and the U.S. clampdown on Huawei thanks to its diverse customer portfolio and tech leadership.

TSMC's revenue for April-June was 310.69 billion New Taiwan dollars ($10.38 billion), up 28.9% from a year ago, on the higher end of its forecast of up to $10.4 billion driven by the ongoing rollouts of 5G-related products and high-performance computers. The company's net profit surged 81% on the year to NT$120.82 billion, as the tech industry went through a rough 2019 that included weak iPhone demand in the first half and a normally slow second quarter.

Looking ahead, TSMC foresees the overall smartphone market declining more than 10% by units shipped in 2020, but CEO and Vice Chairman C.C. Wei said his company now expects the 5G smartphone penetration rate to reach the "high-teens" thanks to a "promising" demand outlook. Apple is slated to introduce its first 5G flagship iPhone lineups later this year, and is preparing up to 80 million units of new iPhones, Nikkei earlier reported. TSMC is not only the sole producer of iPhone mobile processor chips, it also supplies almost all the world's leading chip developers, including Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, ADI, Mediatek and NXP.

But TSMC also warned of uncertainties ahead.

"We see our customers having high anticipations and are preparing for 5G smartphone product launches. ... We cannot rule out the possibilities of inventory corrections in the future," TSMC's CFO Wendell Huang said. "We will have to wait to see how the sell-through goes."

TSMC has also been caught between the escalating U.S.-China tensions. The Taiwanese chip titan, which also makes military-grade semiconductors for American chip developer Xilinx for use in F-35 jets, in May announced its intention to build a $12 billion advanced chip facility in Arizona in the U.S.

"The resilience in the chip supply chain so far could be attributed to Huawei building more inventories out of fear it could not have key components later because of the U.S. ban... while other companies are also building inventories a bit more as they anticipate gaining market share from Huawei later," said Mark Li, a veteran analyst with Bernstein Research. "Apple, meanwhile, according to our supply chain checks, did not lower its orders because of COVID-19."

"The uncertainties ahead would be starting from the latter part of the fourth quarter or next year, as people have to see whether the overall macroeconomic climate and the demand for electronic devices can continue to be robust."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/H...to-halt-chip-supplies-to-Huawei-in-two-months
 
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I bet US will allow TSMC to sell Huawei in the Jan-June windows and then ban it again, so on and so forth.
 
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I bet US will allow TSMC to sell Huawei in the Jan-June windows and then ban it again, so on and so forth.
Don't think so.
The ban is a bargaining chip which US want to use for negotiation. China rejected.
China won't bow under pressure. That's India, not China.
China will an eye for an eye a tooth for a tooth.
 
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Taiwanese products are crap. Good riddance. I'd buy something made in Japan before I buy something from Taiwan even if it was outsourced from/by a Mainland company.

My home has a Linksys (Taiwanese company) wireless router with so-called beam forming technology. Fukin piece of shite. Signal keeps "beam forming" everywhere which is y I never get a stable signal from any device. Makes me so angry I gonna go Huawei when WiFi6 devices r massed produced everywhere.

In short I rather trust a Japanese engineer than a Taiwanese one, but Mainland engineers r the best. Wished Dotard made the ban sooner so more excellent SMIC products got released on the market sooner...

Worst thing that will happen is Huawei smartphone division gonna die when they start using MediaTek CPUs becoz of the ban coz like I said, Taiwanese products r mostly crap.
 
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TSMC is not crap. Let's not let nationalism blind us to reality. TSMC is the best foundry currently in the world, and it's something SMIC is trying to emulate.

With that said, Huawei will be fine. This will force semiconductor industry in China to be self-sufficient in order to compete. It will take at least a decade to reach parity with the West, but China will be better off for it.
 
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TSMC is not crap. Let's not let nationalism blind us to reality. TSMC is the best foundry currently in the world, and it's something SMIC is trying to emulate.

With that said, Huawei will be fine. This will force semiconductor industry in China to be self-sufficient in order to compete. It will take at least a decade to reach parity with the West, but China will be better off for it.

You mean the US/SK/TW. Western Europe in general is essentially unimportant in semiconductors. STMicro if placed in China would be a mid-tier supplier of 28 nm products (which is still a very important node and is good enough for FPGA, automotive, and a even alot of processor work) - at the level of Huahong, not SMIC. People sometimes forget SMIC is still the 5th biggest foundry in the world.

Even in the US, only Intel and GloFo are anywhere near the leading edge, and GloFo is no longer chasing the leading edge. They cancelled their 7 nm program and sold their EUV lithography tools. GloFo also didn't independently develop its 14 nm process, they licensed it from Samsung.

Even in Japan, they still don't have a 14 nm supplier. They're also stuck at 28 nm. They do have lithography tools, but their flagship supplier TEL is in a vulnerable market segment - the chemistry side (etch, deposition). They're now facing competition from AMEC whose 5 nm etch tool was approved by TSMC years ago and is aggressively expanding into additional etch and deposition markets.

The importance of 7 nm is mostly in power consumption and mobility uses. If you are not constrained by power, 14-28 nm is not so bad. That's why Balong modems are made on 14-28 nm which is comfortably within SMIC capabilities.

The only trump card that Western Europe and Japan hold right now is really lithography (which even US doesn't have) but its essentially totally monopolized by ASML, with Canon and Nikon being secondary suppliers. Once SMEE commercializes its 28 nm immersion lithography offering, it'll essentially be on parity with Canon and Nikon. Even with their current 90 nm dry lithography tools, it is good enough for ASIC, microcontroller, packaging, etc.

The dominance of TSMC is both good and bad. For better or worse, TSMC makes others look bad and can even put pressure on Samsung, not just SMIC. And even TSMC is not independent - it still has to buy its tools, and none of them are made in Taiwan.
 
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You mean the US/SK/TW. Western Europe in general is essentially unimportant in semiconductors. STMicro if placed in China would be a mid-tier supplier of 28 nm products (which is still a very important node and is good enough for FPGA, automotive, and a even alot of processor work) - at the level of Huahong, not SMIC. People sometimes forget SMIC is still the 5th biggest foundry in the world.

Even in the US, only Intel and GloFo are anywhere near the leading edge, and GloFo is no longer chasing the leading edge. They cancelled their 7 nm program and sold their EUV lithography tools. GloFo also didn't independently develop its 14 nm process, they licensed it from Samsung.

Even in Japan, they still don't have a 14 nm supplier. They're also stuck at 28 nm. They do have lithography tools, but their flagship supplier TEL is in a vulnerable market segment - the chemistry side (etch, deposition). They're now facing competition from AMEC whose 5 nm etch tool was approved by TSMC years ago and is aggressively expanding into additional etch and deposition markets.

The importance of 7 nm is mostly in power consumption and mobility uses. If you are not constrained by power, 14-28 nm is not so bad. That's why Balong modems are made on 14-28 nm which is comfortably within SMIC capabilities.

The only trump card that Western Europe and Japan hold right now is really lithography (which even US doesn't have) but its essentially totally monopolized by ASML, with Canon and Nikon being secondary suppliers. Once SMEE commercializes its 28 nm immersion lithography offering, it'll essentially be on parity with Canon and Nikon. Even with their current 90 nm dry lithography tools, it is good enough for ASIC, microcontroller, packaging, etc.

The dominance of TSMC is both good and bad. For better or worse, TSMC makes others look bad and can even put pressure on Samsung, not just SMIC. And even TSMC is not independent - it still has to buy its tools, and none of them are made in Taiwan.
China is the only player with full supply chain investment on this little planet.
https://www.eet-china.com/news/202005271157.html
39211bdcf45b5caeccb3c1b994b94d7c.jpg
 
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China is the only player with full supply chain investment on this little planet.

saw this chart a while back. 北方华创 (Naura) and 中微 (AMEC) are pretty big on the chemistry (etch and deposition) side. There is definitely potential for them to put a little pressure on Applied Materials and Lam Research.

Applied Materials and Lam Research (US) are also on the chemistry side. The chemistry side is also not easy - there is a reason each reactor costs millions USD. But the chemistry side is something that there are least have competitors in, and by competitors, I don't mean just a lower tier supplier, but competing with them for top tier customers. This is totally different than having nothing. And even with Naura and AMEC in the market, fundamentally it still means that instead of 3 big companies (AMAT, Lam, TEL) being an oligopoly it's an oligopoly of 5... still an extraordinarily hard market.

中微 also makes CVD equipment, just not for IC market. It can potentially expand into the IC market in the future.
 
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saw this chart a while back. 北方华创 (Naura) and 中微 (AMEC) are pretty big on the chemistry (etch and deposition) side. There is definitely potential for them to put a little pressure on Applied Materials and Lam Research.

Applied Materials and Lam Research (US) are also on the chemistry side. The chemistry side is also not easy - there is a reason each reactor costs millions USD. But the chemistry side is something that there are least have competitors in, and by competitors, I don't mean just a lower tier supplier, but competing with them for top tier customers. This is totally different than having nothing. And even with Naura and AMEC in the market, fundamentally it still means that instead of 3 big companies (AMAT, Lam, TEL) being an oligopoly it's an oligopoly of 5... still an extraordinarily hard market.

中微 also makes CVD equipment, just not for IC market. It can potentially expand into the IC market in the future.
https://www.eet-china.com/news/202005271157.html
我们主要看看前道各环节需要用到的主要设备,以及对应设备供应商有哪些(标红的是本土厂商,标蓝的是美国厂商)

氧化/RTP/激光退火:氧化炉
应用材料,日本日立,东京电子,英国Thermco,北方华创,屹唐半导体

涂胶:涂胶显影设备
东京电子,迪恩士,德国SUSS,奥地利EVG,沈阳芯源微

光刻:光刻机
ASML,日本尼康,日本佳能,东京电子,应用材料,泛林集团,韩国SEMES,上海微电子

刻蚀:等离子体刻蚀机
泛林集团,维利安半导体,东京电子,应用材料,日本日立,韩国JuSung,韩国TES,中微公司,北方华创

离子注入:离子注入机
应用材料,美国Axcelies,德国Ingun,美国QA,美国MicroXcat,韩国Leeno,凯世通,中科信,中电科电子装备

物理气相沉积:PVD设备
应用材料,日本Evatec,日本Ulvac,美国Vaportech,英国Teer,瑞士Platit,德国Cemecon,北方微电子,沈阳中科仪器,成都南光,中国电子科技集团第48所,科睿设备

化学气相沉积:CVD设备
应用材料,泛林集团,美国GT,Soitec,美国ProtoFlex,法国Semco,ASML,东京电子,日本尼康,日本佳能,北方华创,沈阳拓荆

抛光:CMP设备
应用材料,美国Rtec,日本Evatec,华海清科,电科装备45所,盛美半导体

晶圆检测:电学检测设备、质量检测设备
泰瑞达,爱德万,东京电子,科磊半导体,应用材料,日本日立

长川科技,华峰测控,上海中艺,上海睿励,上海微电子,上海精测

多次清洗:清洗设备
日本迪恩士,东京电子,泛林集团,韩国SEMES,北方华创,盛美半导体,至纯科技,捷佳伟创
 
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