Tsai Ing-wen 2016: Taiwan Faces the Future

[Aepsilons]

Dr. Tsai Ing-wen is the Chair of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the party's candidate in Taiwan's 2016 Presidential elections. Before entering public service, Dr. Tsai was a lawyer and university professor. During the 1990's she was one of the key negotiators for Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization.

She subsequently served on the National Security Council of Taiwan as a National Security Advisor to former President Lee Teng-hui. Dr. Tsai served as Chair of the Mainland Affairs Council from 2000-2004, DPP Legislator 2004-2005 and Vice Premier in 2005. Following the DPP's election defeat in 2008, party members urged Dr. Tsai to carry on the challenging task of re-building the party and elected her as the first woman leader of a major political party in Taiwan.

She served as Chair from 2008 to 2012, and was the party's presidential candidate in 2012. Dr. Tsai holds a Ph.D. in Law from the London School of Economics, a Master of Laws from Cornell University Law School, and a Bachelor of Laws from National Taiwan University.




@LeveragedBuyout @Peter C @SvenSvensonov @F-22Raptor @AMDR @Gabriel92 @mike2000 is back @yoshi.oda et al.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I'm watching...but at 56 minutes other people are going to cry "tl;dw"
Maybe you can give some hints as to what we can look forward to.

Edit:
Hmm...sounds like she wants to go back to the days of "Made in Taiwan" vs "Made in China".
Uh oh..she want to put money into the military...with US help...oh wow I sense bases in the future. Definitely...democracy..democracy..democracy...and say "no" to China.

 

[Aepsilons]

I'm watching...but at 56 minutes other people are going to cry "tl;dw"
Maybe you can give some hints as to what we can look forward to.

I will give my write up in a bit.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

They cant change the trend that Taiwan and China are integrating. Plenty of Taiwanese now are moving to Mainland to make money and working. Since Taiwan does not have a big domestic market and job opportunities.

 

[opruh]

She will not win because she is pro-US, Taiwanese are pro-China. Japanese here can remain delusional.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

@Nihonjin1051

An excellent video, thanks for posting. Dr. Tsai is most impressive. Some highlights that seemed salient to me:

• Her discussion of Taiwan's struggle to transition from its status as "factory of the world" and efficiency-driven growth to an innovation-based economy that would encourage employment, distribution of wealth, and enable a strong social safety net was quite interesting, especially because Taiwan's present struggle with this issue is China's future. Taiwan is not the only manufacturing-based economy looking to transition to an innovation-based economy, so it bears watching how Taiwan deals with this issue. It was nice that Dr. Tsai provided examples of how this might be done, including changing the business culture to embrace the virtue of failure and changing the outdated legal structure that has been manufacturing-centric.
• It was interesting to me to hear Dr. Tsai talk about the need for Taiwan to make legislative changes in an attempt to join TPP. I wasn't aware that Taiwan's participation was on the table, or that Taiwan was looking to join.
• It was interesting to hear her talk about deepening security and political ties with the US and Japan, and try to expand relations with ASEAN--although I suppose this is to be expected from the leader of the DPP.
• Her repeated emphasis on how deeply entrenched democracy is in Taiwan, her emphasis on the need to strengthen civil society through NGOs, and her call for greater openness, transparency, and civil participating was fascinating. I know that Taiwan is still a young democracy, but I wondered if there was an underlying message there for China, or if I'm reading too much into this.
• I realize that her comments on Xi should not necessarily be taken at face value given the sensitivity of the subject, but I was still surprised at her optimism that Xi would have a better understanding of Taiwan and show more flexibility than previous CCP leaders.
• The paranoia from the Shenzhen News plants over the 1992 Consensus and the One-China policy was amusing. At least they were self-aware enough to treat the situation with good humor.

Listening to this, it's difficult not to conclude that the HK model can never be applied to Taiwan. HK aspires to democracy, but Taiwan has already had it for a generation, and it's well-entrenched.

Furthermore, the Taiwan question is an interesting demonstration of how brittle the CCP is. In making Taiwan, the SCS, the ECS, the HK political system, etc. its red lines, the CCP has boxed itself into an unsustainable corner. If the CCP backs down after publicly staking its reputation on these matters, it will face humiliation and possible collapse. Alternatively, if it finds it necessary to carry out its threats against Taiwan/Japan/the US/ASEAN, it will be plunging a dagger into its own heart, economically speaking (these are among China's most important trading partners). Even if the CCP just maintains the status quo (threaten, but stop short of military recourse), it will simply alienate Taiwan and ASEAN, forcing them further away from the Sinosphere and into the arms of benevolent and distant America.

Dr. Tsai mentioned that Angela Merkel is one of her role models. Why hasn't China learned the lessons of history from Germany, and followed its model? War never accomplished what Germany desired, but Germany's founding of the European Union created the attractive soft power that enabled it to dominate the European continent. Shouldn't China be pursuing its own Asian Union, and use soft power to attract its neighbors into its orbit, instead of trying to force them in through threats?

Human nature will always revolt against force, so it's unclear what China is trying to accomplish. The AIIB and RCEP simply aren't enough. China should be aiming higher, but it's increasingly hard to believe that Xi has the vision necessary to make it happen. Xi's emergence as a strongman instead of a statesman has proven to be one of the greatest disappointments of this decade. We'll have to wait for the next generation of CCP leadership to see if China can once again assume the mantle of cultural superpower that made it the foundational civilization of Asia to begin with.

---

On a side note, I probably won't respond in depth on PDF anymore. Nothing personal, but whatever I saw in PDF that caused me to join last year is no longer present, and after taking a break in December and January, it's just gotten worse. If you find another site or forum that's more conducive to critical analysis, I'll be happy to take a look, but at this point, I give up on PDF. The hysteria, racism, lack of self-awareness, and downright trolling from the newest members to the highest site staff is just too much to waste time on.

 

[hans]

It is always easier to say than to do.
There will be more economy challenge to Taiwan than political.
Taiwan is facing fierce competition from mainland China, Korea.
There are millions of Taiwanese people working in mainland China, which is the most creative and productive generation of Taiwan.
Also the entire east Asia economy is integrating with China as leader.
Trying to avoid China like joining TPP, ally with other countries will not work.

Also DDP is very practical. I will not be surprised if DPP will cooperate with CCP in future.
Actually they did when DPP started and both CCP and DPP target at KMT..

@Nihonjin1051

An excellent video, thanks for posting. Dr. Tsai is most impressive. Some highlights that seemed salient to me:

• Her discussion of Taiwan's struggle to transition from its status as "factory of the world" and efficiency-driven growth to an innovation-based economy that would encourage employment, distribution of wealth, and enable a strong social safety net was quite interesting, especially because Taiwan's present struggle with this issue is China's future. Taiwan is not the only manufacturing-based economy looking to transition to an innovation-based economy, so it bears watching how Taiwan deals with this issue. It was nice that Dr. Tsai provided examples of how this might be done, including changing the business culture to embrace the virtue of failure and changing the outdated legal structure that has been manufacturing-centric.
• It was interesting to me to hear Dr. Tsai talk about the need for Taiwan to make legislative changes in an attempt to join TPP. I wasn't aware that Taiwan's participation was on the table, or that Taiwan was looking to join.
• It was interesting to hear her talk about deepening security and political ties with the US and Japan, and try to expand relations with ASEAN--although I suppose this is to be expected from the leader of the DPP.
• Her repeated emphasis on how deeply entrenched democracy is in Taiwan, her emphasis on the need to strengthen civil society through NGOs, and her call for greater openness, transparency, and civil participating was fascinating. I know that Taiwan is still a young democracy, but I wondered if there was an underlying message there for China, or if I'm reading too much into this.
• I realize that her comments on Xi should not necessarily be taken at face value given the sensitivity of the subject, but I was still surprised at her optimism that Xi would have a better understanding of Taiwan than previous CCP leaders.
• The paranoia from the Shenzhen News plants over the 1992 Consensus and the One-China policy was amusing. At least they were self-aware enough to treat the situation with good humor.

Listening to this, it's difficult not to conclude that the HK model can never be applied to Taiwan. HK aspires to democracy, but Taiwan has already had it for a generation, and it's well-entrenched.

Furthermore, the Taiwan question is an interesting demonstration of how brittle the CCP is. In making Taiwan, the SCS, the ECS, the HK political system, etc. its red lines, the CCP has boxed itself into an unsustainable corner. If the CCP backs down after publicly staking its reputation on these matters, it will face humiliation and possible collapse. Alternatively, if it finds it necessary to carry out its threats against Taiwan/Japan/the US/ASEAN, it will be plunging a dagger into its own heart, economically (these are among China's most important trading partners). Even if the CCP just maintains the status quo (threaten, but stop short of military recourse), it will simply alienate Taiwan and ASEAN, forcing them further away from the Sinosphere and into the arms of benevolent and distant America.

Dr. Tsai mentioned that Angela Merkel is one of her role models. Why hasn't China learned the lessons of history from Germany, and followed its model? War never accomplished what Germany desired, but Germany's founding of the European Union create the attractive soft power that enabled it to dominate the European continent. Shouldn't China be pursuing its own Asian Union, and use soft power to attract its neighbors into its orbit, instead of trying to force them in through threats?

Human nature will always revolt against force, so it's unclear what China is trying to accomplish. The AIIB and RCEP simply aren't enough. China should be aiming higher, but it's increasingly hard to believe that Xi has the vision necessary to make it happen. Xi's emergence as a strongman instead of a statesman has proven to be one of the greatest disappointments of this decade. We'll have to wait for the next generation of CCP leadership to see if China can once again assume the mantle of cultural superpower that made it the foundational civilization of Asia to begin with.

---

On a side note, I probably won't respond in depth on PDF anymore. Nothing personal, but whatever I saw in PDF that caused me to join last year is no longer present, and after taking a break in December and January, it's just gotten worse. If you find another site or forum that's more conducive to critical analysis, I'll be happy to take a look, but at this point, I give up on PDF. The hysteria, racism, lack of self-awareness, and downright trolling from the newest members to the highest site staff is just too much to waste time on.

 

[Aepsilons]

@Nihonjin1051

An excellent video, thanks for posting. Dr. Tsai is most impressive. Some highlights that seemed salient to me:

• Her discussion of Taiwan's struggle to transition from its status as "factory of the world" and efficiency-driven growth to an innovation-based economy that would encourage employment, distribution of wealth, and enable a strong social safety net was quite interesting, especially because Taiwan's present struggle with this issue is China's future. Taiwan is not the only manufacturing-based economy looking to transition to an innovation-based economy, so it bears watching how Taiwan deals with this issue. It was nice that Dr. Tsai provided examples of how this might be done, including changing the business culture to embrace the virtue of failure and changing the outdated legal structure that has been manufacturing-centric.
• It was interesting to me to hear Dr. Tsai talk about the need for Taiwan to make legislative changes in an attempt to join TPP. I wasn't aware that Taiwan's participation was on the table, or that Taiwan was looking to join.
• It was interesting to hear her talk about deepening security and political ties with the US and Japan, and try to expand relations with ASEAN--although I suppose this is to be expected from the leader of the DPP.
• Her repeated emphasis on how deeply entrenched democracy is in Taiwan, her emphasis on the need to strengthen civil society through NGOs, and her call for greater openness, transparency, and civil participating was fascinating. I know that Taiwan is still a young democracy, but I wondered if there was an underlying message there for China, or if I'm reading too much into this.
• I realize that her comments on Xi should not necessarily be taken at face value given the sensitivity of the subject, but I was still surprised at her optimism that Xi would have a better understanding of Taiwan than previous CCP leaders.
• The paranoia from the Shenzhen News plants over the 1992 Consensus and the One-China policy was amusing. At least they were self-aware enough to treat the situation with good humor.

Listening to this, it's difficult not to conclude that the HK model can never be applied to Taiwan. HK aspires to democracy, but Taiwan has already had it for a generation, and it's well-entrenched.

Furthermore, the Taiwan question is an interesting demonstration of how brittle the CCP is. In making Taiwan, the SCS, the ECS, the HK political system, etc. its red lines, the CCP has boxed itself into an unsustainable corner. If the CCP backs down after publicly staking its reputation on these matters, it will face humiliation and possible collapse. Alternatively, if it finds it necessary to carry out its threats against Taiwan/Japan/the US/ASEAN, it will be plunging a dagger into its own heart, economically (these are among China's most important trading partners). Even if the CCP just maintains the status quo (threaten, but stop short of military recourse), it will simply alienate Taiwan and ASEAN, forcing them further away from the Sinosphere and into the arms of benevolent and distant America.

Dr. Tsai mentioned that Angela Merkel is one of her role models. Why hasn't China learned the lessons of history from Germany, and followed its model? War never accomplished what Germany desired, but Germany's founding of the European Union create the attractive soft power that enabled it to dominate the European continent. Shouldn't China be pursuing its own Asian Union, and use soft power to attract its neighbors into its orbit, instead of trying to force them in through threats?

Human nature will always revolt against force, so it's unclear what China is trying to accomplish. The AIIB and RCEP simply aren't enough. China should be aiming higher, but it's increasingly hard to believe that Xi has the vision necessary to make it happen. Xi's emergence as a strongman instead of a statesman has proven to be one of the greatest disappointments of this decade. We'll have to wait for the next generation of CCP leadership to see if China can once again assume the mantle of cultural superpower that made it the foundational civilization of Asia to begin with.

---

On a side note, I probably won't respond in depth on PDF anymore. Nothing personal, but whatever I saw in PDF that caused me to join last year is no longer present, and after taking a break in December and January, it's just gotten worse. If you find another site or forum that's more conducive to critical analysis, I'll be happy to take a look, but at this point, I give up on PDF. The hysteria, racism, lack of self-awareness, and downright trolling from the newest members to the highest site staff is just too much to waste time on.

The good news about Taipei's evolution from one-party rule to democracy, however, could have dark consequences for Beijing and Washington. Both the Republic of China--the name that Taiwan's government gave itself--and the Beijing-based People's Republic of China on the Chinese mainland agree in principle that Taiwan is part of China. But Taiwan has managed its own affairs since 1949. In 1991, it dropped its comic policy of trying to overthrow the Beijing government. Now, many of the native-born Taiwanese, who make up an 85 percent majority over the Chinese mainlanders who fled Mao's Marxist takeover, are advocating a declared status totally independent of China.

Ducking that very issue has been a cornerstone of relations between America and China ever since President Nixon recognized Beijing in 1972. While never retreating from its territorial claim to Taiwan, Beijing has pragmatically accepted the status quo in which the United States continues to maintain strong economic and military ties to Taipei while officially recognizing Beijing as the government of "one China." Washington has also favored the ambiguous status quo. At the same time America encourages Taiwan's democracy, it cautions it against taking any provocative steps toward official, legally declared independence. Such a move, Chinese leaders have warned, would trigger a military attack on Taiwan. America could easily be dragged into such a conflict.

Taiwan's ferment for independence is driven by not only the rise of democracy but also a sense of separate cultural and social identity. In polls, the Taiwanese say China is hostile to Taiwan. Most reject ultimate reunification and prefer either official independence or an indefinite continuation of de facto independence. "People feel comfortable living in Taiwan," says Andrew Yang, head of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies. "The younger generation is becoming more nationalistic, and the culture gap [with China] is widening. I see no basis for reconciliation." Direct Taipei-Beijing talks should resume soon, but little progress is likely. Recent shows of conciliation on both sides, Yang argues, are merely attempts to impress Washington.

Whether Taiwan can survive independently may ultimately depend on its ability to pursue its goals while not embarrassing Beijing's moderates or giving its hard-liners a reason to go to war. But a free-speech democracy with an independent and assertive populace is not a fertile ground for subtle diplomacy. Taiwan's strongest card is the enormous cost to China, economic and political, that a military conquest of the island would involve. Still, wars have been started for lesser causes than national reunification.

 

[PLANZubr]

How cute. She is smiling because she will go down in history as the last president of "ROC" just like Puyi was the last emperor.

 

[Spectre]

Taiwan's strongest card is the enormous cost to China, economic and political, that a military conquest of the island would involve. Still, wars have been started for lesser causes than national reunification.

I guess more than cost extracted by Taiwan, it is the backing of powers like US which counts.

China is a very assertive country and had it not been for US support both passive and overt, they would have long ago assimilated Taiwan militarily. As things stand they are playing the long game and bidding their time until the eventual and dare I say inevitable withdrawal of US from the Global stage. After that all bets are off and we will see lots of consolidation happening. Of-course Uncle Sam could leave a couple of nukes as a partying gift and that would again establish a deterrent.

 

[Aepsilons]

I guess more than cost extracted by Taiwan, it is the backing of powers like US which counts.

China is a very assertive country and had it not been for US support both passive and overt, they would have long ago assimilated Taiwan militarily. As things stand they are playing the long game and bidding their time until the eventual and dare I say inevitable withdrawal of US from the Global stage. After that all bets are off and we will see lots of consolidation happening. Of-course Uncle Sam could leave a couple of nukes as a partying gift and that would again establish a deterrent.

Therein lies the flaw in many Chinese apologists in regards to US foreign policy in the region. There is this belief that the United States will retreat from the Pacific , Asia. When that simply is not the case. The United States, by her shear national territory in Guam, the Marianas, Hawaii, and other major islands in the Pacific Ocean, is inherently a Pacific Power. The United States has learned full well of what happens when her guard is let down in the Pacific; she will be struck by an assymetric force; that force last time was Imperial Japan.

It is this very reason why to this day there are various contingencies the Americans have prepared for from any threat in the East. And that threat has long been focused on Russia, but recently has been the Chinese. United States Foreign Policy in Asia depends on her forward deployed forces in South Korea, in Japan, in the Philippines, in Thailand, in Malaysia, as well as in Diego Garcia, in Guam, in the Marianas, in Hawaii et al.

The United States will not, in the near to long term future, retreat from the Pacific. Unless one can effectively dislodge her power presence from the region, which would require a military force projection, and anything short of that would never influence American Power on the reverse. And quite frankly, my friend, the Americans are not the type that would retreat from an actual war or an actual combat operation when its national interests were threatened.

Quite frankly, despite the Chinese national growth, they have largely been untested, whereas the United States has been battle tested, have a culture of reacting pragmatially to any threats on an extrahemispherical basis. So the argument of America 'retreating' from Asia-Pacific is inherently flawed to begin with.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Of-course Uncle Sam could leave a couple of nukes as a partying gift and that would again establish a deterrent.

Not going to happen.

The U.S. wants to portray to the world that Taiwan is a successful and important country in world economics. It poses no threat to its neighbors and is only interested in a peaceful coexistence (sort of like Kuwait before Saddam invaded in Gulf War 1). The U.S. even closed bases on Taiwan to make them come across as more harmless.

China can invade them but they will need a very good reason without raising world scorn with the U.S. leadng the finger pointing. So China isn't going to step into that trap.

The U.S. of course is going to pressure Taiwan not to declare independence as that might be able to be spun by China as a legit reason causing a fracturing of world opinion.

 

[Aepsilons]

Not going to happen.

The U.S. wants to portray to the world that Taiwan is a successful and important country in world economics. It poses no threat to its neighbors and is only interested in a peaceful coexistence (sort of like Kuwait before Saddam invaded in Gulf War 1). The U.S. even closed bases on Taiwan to make them come across as more harmless.

China can invade them but they will need a very good reason without raising world scorn with the U.S. leadng the finger pointing. So China isn't going to step into that trap.

The U.S. of course is going to pressure Taiwan not to declare independence as that might be able to be spun by China as a legit reason causing a fracturing of world opinion.

Taiwan has been a democracy since its formation as an independent , autonomous nation since the end of the Pacific War. Most Taiwanese that I know (and I know a lot) are very adamant about the importance of democracy and the participatory representative nature of their government. They value trade with China, but mind you the Taiwanese Nationalists that I know do not like the notion of being under the thumb of a communist pseudo capitalist nation state. For that very reason, the complex national character of Taiwan will lead to its independence and separate state from the Mainland for the near to long distant future. The more time passes on and the more strengthened the Taiwanese Democracy becomes engrained in the very minds of Taiwanese Citizens, the likelihood of integration with the mainland seems even distant.

Economic trade and political economy are two very different animals. Japan and China are the largest traders in the Asian region, however, differ on various political and geopolitical sectors. The realm of economy and politics overlap, sure, but they are totally different entities and should be analyzed independently in context to the Taiwan issue.

It is not as infantilistically simple as some apologists in this forum would have it.

 

[Spectre]

And quite frankly, my friend, the Americans are not the type that would retreat from an actual war or an actual combat operation when its national interests were threatened.

Very well argued. However I have a differing view

History can be a great teacher, if you see the past empires be it Greeks, Persians, Romans or British every one retreats. There is an excellent book - Decay and Fall of Roman Civilization by Edward Gibbon which I think should be made standard reading for all national security analysts. It is a six volume magnum opus and can be quite a heavy read. The book outlines how invincible Romans were at peak of their empire and factors which led to their decline, Pax- Romana is something even Americans today can only dream of.

I am going off topic probably but kindly indulge me in what is going to be a long post:

There are seven stages in life-cycles of great powers:

1. The age of outburst (or pioneers)
2. The age of conquests.
3. The age of commerce.
4. The age of affluence.
5. The age of intellect.
6. The age of decadence.
7. The age of decline and collapse.

I will skip the early stages in America as they are well documented and come right down to stage 6 and stage 7

Age of decadence - This matches perfectly with populist policies of President Clinton and leads upto period 2007-2008. The American Dream was achieved. The people enjoyed unprecedented of levels of materialistic comfort in form of abundance of food, housing and social security in form of health care and pensions. The waste was prevalent in Wall Street, America launched two Trillion Dollar wars without batting an eyelid.

Age of Decline and Collapse - Post 2008 period.

a. Internal Stablity- There is a widespread feeling of betrayal and pessimism among common populace. Income Gap is increasing and is quite unsustainable. Public is disillusioned with Govt and it's policies. The Great Hope which was Obama has barely been passable. There are major fault lines developing in American society b/w haves and have not, b/w Blacks, Browns and Whites. Talibanized American Tea Party has more & more public support then ever and that has led to nutjobs like Trump, Cruz and company appearing and vying for top posts more frequently and what's more people have begun to take them seriously. They probably won't come to power this coming elections but what about 2020 one?

The Draconian Patriot Act and Universal Surveillance in America and rise of power of Deep State in form of NSA and other alphabetic soup of Agencies has bought America ever closer to Police State. War on Drugs has been given up. There are two million people in Jail that is 1 in 100 adults. The cases of listless youth suffering from depression has reached alarming numbers.

b. External Influence - American influence in Global Affairs is at an all time low. We see China and Russia openly challenging US supremacy and we see them getting away without any consequence. The public appetite for another war or skirmish is at an all time low, even worse then post Vietnam Period. We see Americans leaving Afganishtan in an hurry and basically handing it over in platter to Taliban. Less said about Iraq the better. We have seen America basically start to give up or compromise on it's long held positions like on Iran. They basically told Ukrainians tough luck on Crimea. ISIS is knocking at Baghdad and there is no consensus on stopping what is basically an American Frankenstein monster. We see pacifist countries like Germany and Japan increasingly relying less on US and diversifying their interests and adopting more assertive doctrine to better protect their interests. American Govt has officially gone on record and has said people have to fight their own wars thus giving up their role of Global Policeman.

c. Investment in Future - NASA budget is being decreased year on year. Education system is in shambles, yes they retain the edge in higher education but standardized testing has made primary education a joke where focus is solely on grades and incentives. Infrastructure Projects have almost come to hault with only a few big ticket projects happening.

Now of-course many of my statements individually can be dismissed as irrelevant or conspiracy theory but when you combine them you begin to see a pattern.

P.S. No references as most of it is from the top of my head. I would probably make a formalized thread on this with proper references and credit in coming days.

 

[Aepsilons]

Very well argued. However I have a differing view

History can be a great teacher, if you see the past empires be it Greeks, Persians, Romans or British every one retreats. There is an excellent book - Decay and Fall of Roman Civilization by Edward Gibbon which I think should be made standard reading for all national security analysts. It is a six volume magnum opus and can be quite a heavy read. The book outlines how invincible Romans were at peak of their empire, Pax- Romana is something even Americans today can only dream of.

I am going off topic probably but kindly indulge me in what is going to be a long post:

There are seven stages in life-cycles of great powers:

1. The age of outburst (or pioneers)
2. The age of conquests.
3. The age of commerce.
4. The age of affluence.
5. The age of intellect.
6. The age of decadence.
7. The age of decline and collapse.

I will skip the early stages in America as they are well documented and come right down to stage 6 and stage 7

Age of decadence - This matches perfectly with populist policies of President Clinton and leads upto period 2007-2008. The American Dream was achieved. The people enjoyed unprecedented of levels of materialistic comfort in form of abundance of food, housing and social security in form of health care and pensions. The waste was prevalent in Wall Street, America launched two Trillion Dollar wars without batting an eyelid.

Age of Decline and Collapse - Post 2008 period.

a. Internal Stablity- There is a widespread feeling of betrayal and pessimism among common populace. Income Gap is increasing and is quite unsustainable. Public is disillusioned with Govt and it's policies. The Great Hope which was Obama has barely been passable. There are major fault lines developing in American society b/w haves and have not, b/w Blacks, Browns and Whites. Talibanized American Tea Party has more more public support then ever and that has led to nutjobs like Trump, Cruz and company appearing and vying for top posts more frequently and what's more people have begun to take them seriously. They probably won't come to power this coming elections but what about 2020 one?
The Draconian Patriot Act and Universal Surveillance is America and rise of power of Deep State in form of NSA and other alphabetic soup of Agencies has bought America ever closer to Police State. War on Drugs has been given up. There are two million people in Jail that is 1 in 100 adults. The cases of listless youth suffering from depression has reached alarming numbers.

b. External Influence - American influence in Global Affairs is at an all time low. We see China and Russia openly challenging US supremacy and we see them getting away without any consequence. The public appetite for another war or skirmish is at an all time low, even worse then post Vietnam Period. We see Americans leaving Afganishtan in an hurry and basically handing it over in platter to Taliban. Less said about Iraq the better. We have seen America basically start to give up or compromise on it's long held positions like on Iran. They basically told Ukrainians tough luck on Crimea. ISIS is knocking at Baghdad and there is no consensus on stopping what is basically an American Frankenstein monster. We see pacifist countries like Germany and Japan increasingly relying less on US.

c. Investment in Future - NASA budget is being decreased year on year. Education system is in shambles, yes they retain the edge in higher education but standardized testing has made primary education a joke where focus is solely on grades and incentives. Infrastructure Projects have almost come to hault with only a few big ticket projects happening.

Now of-course many of my statements individually can be dismissed as irrelevant or unimportant but when you combine them you begin to see a pattern.

P.S. No references as most of it is from the top of my head. I would probably make a formalized thread on this with proper references and credit in coming days.

@Spectre --- What an impressive and well written analyses on the United States of America; all very valid and pertinent points, mon ami. I will respond to your points, but on the mean time, I would love to read the views of Americans themselves -- so thus I will invite @LeveragedBuyout @Peter C @AMDR @KAL-EL @SvenSvensonov and @F-22Raptor to give their learned input.


Again, please accept my adulation and appreciation of your point(s).