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Trump Putin meeting: what hurdles will they have to address?
Global Village Space |
The Durdan |
With all the fuss over Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting later this week at the G20 summit, many have conspicuously failed to grasp that the monumental task ahead of both leaders has little to do with their own period in government and even less to do with their personalities. These things of course do matter, but their importance is dwarfed by larger historical and present economic and geo-strategic concerns.
With that in mind, here are the giant obstacles that both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will be faced with when they meet.
Spheres of Influence
The modern day struggle between Washington and Moscow is an ideological conflict which masks an even more sinister competition for global influence. The fact of the matter is Donald Trump like many Americans, respects Russia’s Orthodox traditions and Russia as a satisfied Orthodox power does not seek to impose its culture or social system on anyone else.
But when it comes to economic and geo-strategic spheres of influence, both countries are in direct competition. This is largely due to America’s hegemonic view that the entire planet is it’s literal sphere of influence.
Read more: Detente 2.0’ between Russia and the US: an unconvincing idea under Trump
Russia would be all too happy for America to present Russia with an agreement whereby Russia is entitled to exercise economic, geo-political and commercial influence in its natural spheres of influence while allowing America to exert power over hers.
Russia’s natural sphere of influence is Eurasia including the Caucuses, central Asia, the Turkic world and much of the Arab world. Insofar as this is the case, Russia would have to and is willing and able to cooperate with Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and India, countries which are all key regional powers themselves, though not superpowers as the US, Russia and China are.
America would not be asked to forfeit many of its existing goals in these regions, but America would have to go back to the drawing board and accept a commercial relationship rather than an overt political relationship with these regions.
This is of course nearly an impossible task given the geo-strategic thinking of American big business and the deep state. That being said, Donald Trump’s commercial sense means he is more ideally suited to at least discuss this reality than any other realistic would-be US President at this time in history or in the foreseeable future.
Asia
Russia’s extremely important alliance with China is a major stumbling block to good US-Russia relations.
Read more: Trump’s travails may spill over to Euphrates valley
It could well be a permanent stumbling block for reasons which predate the existence of the United States and the British Empire from which the US seceded on the 4th of July.
China and Russia will always be neighbours and the overall historical trajectory of this relationship indicates that China and Russia have generally served as complimentary rather than adversarial neighbours.
With the exceptions of what in hindsight were minor periods of disquiet in the 17th century and 20th century, Russia and China have always had a good relationship. China and Russia will always be neighbours and the overall historical trajectory of this relationship indicates that China and Russia have generally served as complimentary rather than adversarial neighbours.
It is wise to remember that since the end of the Mongolian Golden Horde, Russia has generally had far better relations with the Asian powers than with any other powers of the world. Russia is largely an Asian/oriental power after all.
The fact that Russia and China have so completely patched up the disputes of the 20th century is a testament to the fact that the Sino-Soviet split was a period of aberrational rather than archetypal relations between the two great powers.
Between Russia and China, two of the three world super-powers dominate the geo-politics and economics of Eurasia and East Asia.
In this sense, the US is both outnumbered and geographically outmatched.
Russia’s relationship with India remains strong in spite of India’s ability as a post-non-aligned power to play China, Russia and America against each other.
Read more: US and Russia: A meeting of two giants during G20 summit!
While India will doubtlessly continue to do this for short or even medium term historical gain, India’s geography and her economic strengths dictate that in the longer term future, it will be necessary for New Delhi to economically cooperate with Beijing. Russia is, of course, the glue that could hold this marriage of convenience and also of necessity together.
Turning to the Middle Eastern edge of Asia, Russia has had an on-again-off-again relationship with Iran. It’s past wars, particularly those of the 18th and early 19th century were territorial disputes which have long been put to bed. For this reason alone, let alone many other more pressing current matters, Iran and Russia’s partnership looks set to last.
Turkey, by contrast, has been Russia’s historic Eurasian enemy, one which often bound Iran and Russia together against a common foe.
Turkey’s position in NATO means that Turkey has the ability to play both sides against one another, but unlike India which has economic interests with China, Russia and the American led west, Turkey is increasingly finding its economic interests to be squarely in line with Russia and with Russian partners.
While Turkey is a key Eurasian power, ultimately she still needs to choose to be allied with one of the super-powers. Just as sure as America has pushed Turkey away, Turkey has learned that its economic future is more closely linked with Russia than with any of the other superpowers.
Read more: A possible new makeover for US and Russia?
The conclusion of this is a ‘New Silk Road’ by default. The fact that China with Russia’s support is building such a project by design, the One Belt–One Road project, is simply a manifestation of how each of the aforementioned countries are aware of the inevitability of a new silk road as something necessary for the prosperity of each nation. While getting all the powers with their own histories of disputes to cooperate in respect of building the New Silk Road is no easy task, it is actually an easier task than getting Russia and China to submit themselves to America. It is no longer 1989, such an idea is fantasy in 2017.
Read full article:
Trump Putin meeting: what hurdles will they have to address?
Global Village Space |
The Durdan |
With all the fuss over Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting later this week at the G20 summit, many have conspicuously failed to grasp that the monumental task ahead of both leaders has little to do with their own period in government and even less to do with their personalities. These things of course do matter, but their importance is dwarfed by larger historical and present economic and geo-strategic concerns.
With that in mind, here are the giant obstacles that both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will be faced with when they meet.
Spheres of Influence
The modern day struggle between Washington and Moscow is an ideological conflict which masks an even more sinister competition for global influence. The fact of the matter is Donald Trump like many Americans, respects Russia’s Orthodox traditions and Russia as a satisfied Orthodox power does not seek to impose its culture or social system on anyone else.
But when it comes to economic and geo-strategic spheres of influence, both countries are in direct competition. This is largely due to America’s hegemonic view that the entire planet is it’s literal sphere of influence.
Read more: Detente 2.0’ between Russia and the US: an unconvincing idea under Trump
Russia would be all too happy for America to present Russia with an agreement whereby Russia is entitled to exercise economic, geo-political and commercial influence in its natural spheres of influence while allowing America to exert power over hers.
Russia’s natural sphere of influence is Eurasia including the Caucuses, central Asia, the Turkic world and much of the Arab world. Insofar as this is the case, Russia would have to and is willing and able to cooperate with Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and India, countries which are all key regional powers themselves, though not superpowers as the US, Russia and China are.
America would not be asked to forfeit many of its existing goals in these regions, but America would have to go back to the drawing board and accept a commercial relationship rather than an overt political relationship with these regions.
This is of course nearly an impossible task given the geo-strategic thinking of American big business and the deep state. That being said, Donald Trump’s commercial sense means he is more ideally suited to at least discuss this reality than any other realistic would-be US President at this time in history or in the foreseeable future.
Asia
Russia’s extremely important alliance with China is a major stumbling block to good US-Russia relations.
Read more: Trump’s travails may spill over to Euphrates valley
It could well be a permanent stumbling block for reasons which predate the existence of the United States and the British Empire from which the US seceded on the 4th of July.
China and Russia will always be neighbours and the overall historical trajectory of this relationship indicates that China and Russia have generally served as complimentary rather than adversarial neighbours.
With the exceptions of what in hindsight were minor periods of disquiet in the 17th century and 20th century, Russia and China have always had a good relationship. China and Russia will always be neighbours and the overall historical trajectory of this relationship indicates that China and Russia have generally served as complimentary rather than adversarial neighbours.
It is wise to remember that since the end of the Mongolian Golden Horde, Russia has generally had far better relations with the Asian powers than with any other powers of the world. Russia is largely an Asian/oriental power after all.
The fact that Russia and China have so completely patched up the disputes of the 20th century is a testament to the fact that the Sino-Soviet split was a period of aberrational rather than archetypal relations between the two great powers.
Between Russia and China, two of the three world super-powers dominate the geo-politics and economics of Eurasia and East Asia.
In this sense, the US is both outnumbered and geographically outmatched.
Russia’s relationship with India remains strong in spite of India’s ability as a post-non-aligned power to play China, Russia and America against each other.
Read more: US and Russia: A meeting of two giants during G20 summit!
While India will doubtlessly continue to do this for short or even medium term historical gain, India’s geography and her economic strengths dictate that in the longer term future, it will be necessary for New Delhi to economically cooperate with Beijing. Russia is, of course, the glue that could hold this marriage of convenience and also of necessity together.
Turning to the Middle Eastern edge of Asia, Russia has had an on-again-off-again relationship with Iran. It’s past wars, particularly those of the 18th and early 19th century were territorial disputes which have long been put to bed. For this reason alone, let alone many other more pressing current matters, Iran and Russia’s partnership looks set to last.
Turkey, by contrast, has been Russia’s historic Eurasian enemy, one which often bound Iran and Russia together against a common foe.
Turkey’s position in NATO means that Turkey has the ability to play both sides against one another, but unlike India which has economic interests with China, Russia and the American led west, Turkey is increasingly finding its economic interests to be squarely in line with Russia and with Russian partners.
While Turkey is a key Eurasian power, ultimately she still needs to choose to be allied with one of the super-powers. Just as sure as America has pushed Turkey away, Turkey has learned that its economic future is more closely linked with Russia than with any of the other superpowers.
Read more: A possible new makeover for US and Russia?
The conclusion of this is a ‘New Silk Road’ by default. The fact that China with Russia’s support is building such a project by design, the One Belt–One Road project, is simply a manifestation of how each of the aforementioned countries are aware of the inevitability of a new silk road as something necessary for the prosperity of each nation. While getting all the powers with their own histories of disputes to cooperate in respect of building the New Silk Road is no easy task, it is actually an easier task than getting Russia and China to submit themselves to America. It is no longer 1989, such an idea is fantasy in 2017.
Read full article:
Trump Putin meeting: what hurdles will they have to address?
