Trump President and its meaning for the EU

[flamer84]

Well folks,we had "what in means for India ?,for Israel,for Pakistan,for Turkey,for Russia ?" ,but who cares,right ? The important thing is what it means for the EU. ( I joke,I joke ofc )

Seriously though,I see this as an opportunity and I'm pretty sure EU politicians think alike .Despite all the rhetoric most important EU states didn't cave into populists,after BREXIT ,polls in France,Germany,Denmark etc showed a growing support for the EU but the masses also sent an important message...Change !

Also after Brexit,Germany and France pushed for the EU Army and ,for the first time,suggested EU funds being diverted to the defence industry.Now,I don't believe,despite the fact that they want to work with Russia ,that Fra,Ger,Italy would hand over EE to Russia.They have businesses in the hundreds of billions in here ,a interwined market of some 120 million people and after bringing Russia that close who is safe anymore.Nor will European states pay a protection racket to the US.That was paid with dead citizens of ours in A'stan,Irak.

My take that calls for increased cooperation,more defence funds and stronger European integration will arrive.I see Europe picking a destiny for itself ,separated from the US.It's about time ,I say.

@Vergennes @Penguin @SMS Derfflinger @waz @MarkusS @mike2000 is back @Blue Marlin @Nilgiri @Taygibay @Technogaianist @AP Richelieu , @GiannKall (I was just messing around,you're not actually welcomed to this discussion as you're not Greek) , @Louiq XIV @bobo6661 and others

 

[Fenrir]

I have no idea how a Trump presidency will play out for Europe in real terms, but do have some thoughts on the matter regardless. Trump needs to present actual policies beyond saying NATO needs to do more or comparing his election to Brexit. So far we've seen rhetoric, but nothing concrete in terms of how he'll deal with the EU as a bloc or how he'll approach individual European nations. While awaiting his policies, it's worth noting Europe does not trust Trump:

I do believe that this uncertainty will help to galvanize European nations into taking some responsibility for their own defense, or further cooperation within the Common Security and Defence Policy - or form a new variation of it as has been discussed with an EU Defense Force - but in real terms it's wait and see. Trump has said a lot during his campaign, some of it wasn't true, some of it was taken back or flip-flopped on, and some will turn out to be actual policies, but at this point, before he takes office in January, we simply don't know enough about how a Trump presidency will look or act to make an informed opinion or stance on his relations with Europe. He's been too inconsistent during the campaign to get an accurate read on.

Irrespective, Europe needs to the get the anchors out of its pants and step up. The more we do the less we have to rely on the Americans and the less uncertainty in US politics will effect us going forward, especially in defense terms. No matter what the Americans will cooperate with us in defense, it's in their best interest and even Trump recognizes this, will trade with us, we'll invest in their country and them in ours, but there's a lot that we need to do for ourselves, to put of best foot forward, and to take some responsibility for our own nations. We can't rely on the Americans for defense forever, but we're always willing to take their money.

I was disappointed with both candidates this year. Neither Hillary nor Donald really looked like good choices, but it's their decision and we need to respect it and learn to live with it, and live despite it. We need to take responsibility for ourselves while maintaining good relations with global powers, America included.

One interesting thing to watch would be a US-Russia rapprochement. If they come together moreso under Trump, would that signal a thaw between European and Russia too? Many European nations have been reluctant to continue this standoff against Russia over Syria and Ukraine since it harms European business, but we can't be sure any US-Russia rapprochement would be real either or lasting, so Europe needs to watch with caution.

Also to watch for is whether or not Trump actually "rips up" the Iran Nuclear Deal. Personally I think his advisors and world powers will talk him down and explain the benefits of it, but it's something to watch. European powers lobbied hard and I doubt they'd support the US if it chose to exit and would likely be unwilling to reapply sanctions to Iran or support further US punitive actions.

And finally, how does his stance on energy evolve. Trump is noted for being against renewable energy and favoring coal and oil power generation, and noted for saying global warming is a Chinese hoax, so his reticence to support clean energy initiatives is something to watch too, as US energy policy will effect Europe as the two sides, and the world at large, attempt to negotiate a path towards an increase in renewable energy going forward.

There's some good and some bad for Europe, and some potential for disaster or a paradigm shift in global relations in the region, but we need to do our best to ensure the Americans can't screw things up for our continent by taking action to better our own position and taking responsibility for ourselves in greater terms.

...

Anyway, those are my thoughts on the matter. Right or wrong.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

German newspapers: The European Union is the sole democratic and Western power in this world after Trump's election. Germans hate Trump and they are extremely in favor of Clinton/Obama. Some journalists suggest that Merkel is now the "leader of the free world". Some judge even that America is not a part of the Western world anymore.

 

[Steve781]

We're at the front of the queue for the US now, which will strengthen our hand in negotiations.
Also, nobody is now going to discount a victory for Marine Le Pen or Geert Wilders.

 

[Nilgiri]

Well folks,we had "what in means for India ?,for Israel,for Pakistan,for Turkey,for Russia ?" ,but who cares,right ? The important thing is what it means for the EU. ( I joke,I joke ofc )

Seriously though,I see this as an opportunity and I'm pretty sure EU politicians think alike .Despite all the rhetoric most important EU states didn't cave into populists,after BREXIT ,polls in France,Germany,Denmark etc showed a growing support for the EU but the masses also sent an important message...Change !

Also after Brexit,Germany and France pushed for the EU Army and ,for the first time,suggested EU funds being diverted to the defence industry.Now,I don't believe,despite the fact that they want to work with Russia ,that Fra,Ger,Italy would hand over EE to Russia.They have businesses in the hundreds of billions in here ,a interwined market of some 120 million people and after bringing Russia that close who is safe anymore.Nor will European states pay a protection racket to the US.That was paid with dead citizens of ours in A'stan,Irak.

My take that calls for increased cooperation,more defence funds and stronger European integration will arrive.I see Europe picking a destiny for itself ,separated from the US.It's about time ,I say.

@Vergennes @Penguin @SMS Derfflinger @waz @MarkusS @mike2000 is back @Blue Marlin @Nilgiri @Taygibay @Technogaianist @AP Richelieu , @GiannKall (I was just messing around,you're not actually welcomed to this discussion as you're not Greek) , @Louiq XIV @bobo6661 and others

Time for the reclamation to start. You in Europe will take the best of the Trump wave and implement it in Europe I feel. Leftism is going to get crushed in a big way finally....the conditions are ripe given the unfettered immigration thats happening.

 

[flamer84]

German newspapers: The European Union is the sole democratic and Western power in this world after Trump's election. Germans hate Trump and they are extremely in favor of Clinton/Obama. Some journalists suggest that Merkel is now the "leader of the free world". Some judge even that America is not a part of the Western world anymore.

Yes,that's the ideea that comes to me to,Europe is now the leader of the democratic world but it has to bank on it,and not only with soft power.There's an oportunity here and I believe Europe will take it.

Time for the reclamation to start. You in Europe will take the best of the Trump wave and implement it in Europe I feel. Leftism is going to get crushed in a big way finally....the conditions are ripe given the unfettered immigration thats happening.

That's the ideea,ride the wave in Europe's favour.It's time to shine.

We're at the front of the queue for the US now, which will strengthen our hand in negotiations.
Also, nobody is now going to discount a victory for Marine Le Pen or Geert Wilders.

You're in no man's land right now....out of the EU and watching a Trump led US leaning towards isolationism.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Yes,that's the ideea that comes to me to,Europe is now the leader of the democratic world but it has to bank on it,and not only with soft power.There's an oportunity here and I believe Europe will take it.

It all depends on France. If the French electorate chooses Le Pen as their next leader in the coming election, EU is definitely going to dissolve. You cannot deny this risk.

 

[Steve781]

Yes,that's the ideea that comes to me to,Europe is now the leader of the democratic world but it has to bank on it,and not only with soft power.There's an oportunity here and I believe Europe will take it.




That's the ideea,ride the wave in Europe's favour.It's time to shine.




You're in no man's land right now....out of the EU and watching a Trump led US leaning towards isolationism.

Trump will be more favourably disposed to us than Obama or Hilary. Plus, a Marine Le Pen victory, which can't be discounted now, is going to finish the EU for good.

 

[flamer84]

It all depends on France. If the French electorate chooses Le Pen as their next leader in the coming election, EU is definitely going to dissolve. You cannot deny this risk.

No risk,it's not going to happen.0% for LePen...frame this.The EU will come together after this,just like it did after Brexit.All these shocks strenghtened the EU,they did not weakened it.

Trump will be more favourably disposed to us than Obama or Hilary. Plus, a Marine Le Pen victory, which can't be discounted now, is going to finish the EU for good.

No Le Pen win.I guarantee it.

This is your ally today.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

No risk,it's not going to happen.0% for LePen...frame this.The EU will come together after this,just like it did after Brexit.All these shocks strenghtened the EU,they did not weakened it.

Brexit? Trump? Your are way to uncritical.

 

[Steve781]

No risk,it's not going to happen.0% for LePen...frame this.The EU will come together after this,just like it did after Brexit.All these shocks strenghtened the EU,they did not weakened it.



No Le Pen win.I guarantee it.

This is your ally today.

Well Hollande certainly won't win. The only other option is Sarkozy, who, along with Obama and Cameron, created the refugee crisis by bombing Libya and could be in jail within a year.

 

[xenon54 out]

German newspapers: The European Union is the sole democratic and Western power in this world after Trump's election. Germans hate Trump and they are extremely in favor of Clinton/Obama. Some journalists suggest that Merkel is now the "leader of the free world". Some judge even that America is not a part of the Western world anymore.

Everyone i have talked to was shocked about the election results, most common joke was, ''this guy has the red button now''

To be honest, im not sure if Hillary would be any better, she just didnt seem honest to me, at least Trump spoke what he is thinking.

 

[Vergennes]

Seriously though,I see this as an opportunity and I'm pretty sure EU politicians think alike .Despite all the rhetoric most important EU states didn't cave into populists,after BREXIT ,polls in France,Germany,Denmark etc showed a growing support for the EU but the masses also sent an important message...Change !

The problem,even with the Brexit,is that the EU doesn't still want to change,remains a brueaucratic hellhole,where nobody knows who elects those at the top,with crazy immigration policies and no border controls.
No countries actually want to start an initiative for a new european treaty,there doesn't seem to be any will to do so,and if we continue this way,this will fuel the euro cepticism and see Le Pen &co skyrocketing and probably winning elections.
Nobody is taking lessons of the british referendum and that's frustrating.
If there's a referendum tomorrow,the majority of the french people would want to leave the EU,and I would probably be one of them... (the french being among the most eurosceptics in EU..) @Nilgiri

Well Hollande certainly won't win. The only other option is Sarkozy, who, along with Obama and Cameron, created the refugee crisis by bombing Libya and could be in jail within a year.

The favorite of the presidential election is the one who will win the Republican party primary. I expect to see Marine vs the winner of the primary in the secound round. Then all leftists whatsoever will vote for the Republican candidate. I expect Marine to see her scores skyrocket and see her party gaining many seats in the parliamentary elections. You shouldn't underestimate Sarkozy and his fanclub,Libya or not..

 

[Nilgiri]

The problem,even with the Brexit,is that the EU doesn't still want to change,remains a brueaucratic hellhole,where nobody knows who elects those at the top,with crazy immigration policies and no border controls.

This is the biggest problem brother. I have so many French friends who say the exact same thing without the polite language

When the EU stopped being something purely economic and first took on the apparel of a political beast and then became one over time (I think there is a Hungarian proverb that says you become what you wear over time)....then it set up its own failure long term.....because it stops becoming a union for the people to improve....but rather a union for politicians to "improve" through having even more bureaucracy and vested crony wells of power and money to tap into and expand.

After all its one of the major reasons Roman Empire collapsed. Govt got too big, bureaucrats fed into never-ending dens of corruption and could not deal with the hordes and barbarians when they showed up.

If there's a referendum tomorrow,the majority of the french people would want to leave the EU,and I would probably be one of them... (the french being among the most eurosceptics in EU..)

Has there been a good non-mainstream poll done on this?

 

[Blue Marlin]

I have no idea how a Trump presidency will play out for Europe in real terms, but do have some thoughts on the matter regardless. Trump needs to present actual policies beyond saying NATO needs to do more or comparing his election to Brexit. So far we've seen rhetoric, but nothing concrete in terms of how he'll deal with the EU as a bloc or how he'll approach individual European nations. While awaiting his policies, it's worth noting Europe does not trust Trump:

I do believe that this uncertainty will help to galvanize European nations into taking some responsibility for their own defense, or further cooperation within the Common Security and Defence Policy - or form a new variation of it as has been discussed with an EU Defense Force - but in real terms it's wait and see. Trump has said a lot during his campaign, some of it wasn't true, some of it was taken back or flip-flopped on, and some will turn out to be actual policies, but at this point, before he takes office in January, we simply don't know enough about how a Trump presidency will look or act to make an informed opinion or stance on his relations with Europe. He's been too inconsistent during the campaign to get an accurate read on.

Irrespective, Europe needs to the get the anchors out of its pants and step up. The more we do the less we have to rely on the Americans and the less uncertainty in US politics will effect us going forward, especially in defense terms. No matter what the Americans will cooperate with us in defense, it's in their best interest and even Trump recognizes this, will trade with us, we'll invest in their country and them in ours, but there's a lot that we need to do for ourselves, to put of best foot forward, and to take some responsibility for our own nations. We can't rely on the Americans for defense forever, but we're always willing to take their money.

I was disappointed with both candidates this year. Neither Hillary nor Donald really looked like good choices, but it's their decision and we need to respect it and learn to live with it, and live despite it. We need to take responsibility for ourselves while maintaining good relations with global powers, America included.

One interesting thing to watch would be a US-Russia rapprochement. If they come together moreso under Trump, would that signal a thaw between European and Russia too? Many European nations have been reluctant to continue this standoff against Russia over Syria and Ukraine since it harms European business, but we can't be sure any US-Russia rapprochement would be real either or lasting, so Europe needs to watch with caution.

Also to watch for is whether or not Trump actually "rips up" the Iran Nuclear Deal. Personally I think his advisors and world powers will talk him down and explain the benefits of it, but it's something to watch. European powers lobbied hard and I doubt they'd support the US if it chose to exit and would likely be unwilling to reapply sanctions to Iran or support further US punitive actions.

And finally, how does his stance on energy evolve. Trump is noted for being against renewable energy and favoring coal and oil power generation, and noted for saying global warming is a Chinese hoax, so his reticence to support clean energy initiatives is something to watch too, as US energy policy will effect Europe as the two sides, and the world at large, attempt to negotiate a path towards an increase in renewable energy going forward.

There's some good and some bad for Europe, and some potential for disaster or a paradigm shift in global relations in the region, but we need to do our best to ensure the Americans can't screw things up for our continent by taking action to better our own position and taking responsibility for ourselves in greater terms.

...

Anyway, those are my thoughts on the matter. Right or wrong.

of all the presidential candidates who would you have liked to see as president and why?