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By: M.K. Bhadrakumar
A week after the racist remark by US President Donald Trump about African countries (“shitholes”), it will be delicate moment when he receives Kazakhstan President Nurusultan Nazarbayev later today in the White House. Nazarbayev comes from not only a non-European country but a Muslim country to boot. Trump had telephoned Nazarbayev in September to invite him to visit the US. He will be Trump’s first visitor from the Central Asian steppes.
Epictetus, the ancient Greek Stoic philosopher, once said, “Circumstances don’t maketh the man, they only reveal him to himself.” Trump’s conversation with Nazarbayev is unlikely to change his mindset but it will surely reveal to him his own inadequacies. For, Nazarbayev is a great statesman, vastly experienced in statecraft. Mikhail Gorbachev had wanted him to shift to Moscow as the Soviet Prime Minister when the coup took place and spoiled the party.
The White House announcement regarding Nazarbayev’s visit stated that the two presidents “will discuss ways to strengthen and enhance our strategic partnership on regional security issues and economic cooperation. The presidents will also discuss Kazakhstan’s leadership on several international challenges, particularly Afghanistan, during its presidency of the United Nations Security Council, and the legacy of bilateral partnership between our countries regarding weapons of mass destruction and non-proliferation issues.”
Trump is reaching out to Nazarbayev with two things on his mind – oil and Afghanistan – apart from sundry other topics. The Big Oil has invested heavily in Kazakhstan. To illustrate the point, in the Tengiz field alone, Chevron and ExxonMobil decided to make a huge investment of US$36.8 billion to boost production to 39 million tons a year (850,000 barrels per day) by 2022 from 27 million tons currently. Tengiz is one of the world’s biggest oil fields and it already accounts for more than a third of total crude output in Kazakhstan. Chevron owns 50 percent stake in the venture and Exxon Mobil has 25 percent with Kazakh oil and gas firm KazMunayGaz 20 percent. (Don’t ask why Dick Cheney and Condoleeza Rice paid such high attention to Kazakhstan.)
Unsurprisingly, Kazakhstan has all along been the centre stage of the great game in the post-Cold War Central Asian region. If geopolitics of energy was at the core of the great game in the nineties, it acquired new dimensions against the backdrop of US occupation of Afghanistan, China’s rise (Belt and Road Initiative in particular) and the New Cold War with Russia.
Nazarbayev deftly balanced Kazakhstan’s relations with the big powers, while maintaining a ‘Russia first’ policy. But the country is entering transition and Washington hopes to encourage a surge of Kazakh nationalism leading to a ‘regime change’ in Astana, which would roll back Russian influence and present China with a prickly neighbour.
Russia has a 6846-kilometer border with Kazakhstan, while China shares a 1782-kilometre border. Moscow and Beijing will be horrified if the CIA were to set up base camp in Astana or if Pentagon were to deploy the ABM system. The US diplomacy is gearing up for the post-Nazarbayev era.
However, in immediate terms, Trump’s main concern will be what Nazarbayev can do to help the Pentagon win the war in Afghanistan. Kazakhstan can make a difference. Like in the past, it can depute Kazakh contingents to fight in Afghanistan; it can support the Afghan economy; it can make vital intelligence inputs; and, it can play a useful role when it chairs the UN Security Council in 2018. Most important, Kazakhstan can provide a transit route (especially air corridor) via the Northern Distribution Network, which will allow Trump to exercise the option to punish Pakistan, even at the cost of closure of the two transit routes through Pakistan.
Will Nazarbayev play ball? It’s unlikely if Moscow were to frown upon the idea. Trump would know that discussing Afghanistan with Nazarbayev is almost as good as having a conversation with President Putin. So, the next big question is: Can Nazarbayev mediate a US-Russia congruence over Afghan situation?
Without doubt, Nazarbayev would have discussed the forthcoming visit to Washington with Putin. The two statesmen frequently talk on the phone. They met in Moscow recently. The superb quality of the relationship and the mutual trust and confidence between the two leaderships come out in the Kremlin transcript of that meeting on December 27.
This is going to be a high-stakes meeting for regional security in South and Central Asia. Nazarbayev is an old war-horse and very unlike Trump in personality and temperament. But then, both are realists. To be sure, the great game in the steppes is awakening from its slumber and slouching toward activism.
A week after the racist remark by US President Donald Trump about African countries (“shitholes”), it will be delicate moment when he receives Kazakhstan President Nurusultan Nazarbayev later today in the White House. Nazarbayev comes from not only a non-European country but a Muslim country to boot. Trump had telephoned Nazarbayev in September to invite him to visit the US. He will be Trump’s first visitor from the Central Asian steppes.
Epictetus, the ancient Greek Stoic philosopher, once said, “Circumstances don’t maketh the man, they only reveal him to himself.” Trump’s conversation with Nazarbayev is unlikely to change his mindset but it will surely reveal to him his own inadequacies. For, Nazarbayev is a great statesman, vastly experienced in statecraft. Mikhail Gorbachev had wanted him to shift to Moscow as the Soviet Prime Minister when the coup took place and spoiled the party.
The White House announcement regarding Nazarbayev’s visit stated that the two presidents “will discuss ways to strengthen and enhance our strategic partnership on regional security issues and economic cooperation. The presidents will also discuss Kazakhstan’s leadership on several international challenges, particularly Afghanistan, during its presidency of the United Nations Security Council, and the legacy of bilateral partnership between our countries regarding weapons of mass destruction and non-proliferation issues.”
Trump is reaching out to Nazarbayev with two things on his mind – oil and Afghanistan – apart from sundry other topics. The Big Oil has invested heavily in Kazakhstan. To illustrate the point, in the Tengiz field alone, Chevron and ExxonMobil decided to make a huge investment of US$36.8 billion to boost production to 39 million tons a year (850,000 barrels per day) by 2022 from 27 million tons currently. Tengiz is one of the world’s biggest oil fields and it already accounts for more than a third of total crude output in Kazakhstan. Chevron owns 50 percent stake in the venture and Exxon Mobil has 25 percent with Kazakh oil and gas firm KazMunayGaz 20 percent. (Don’t ask why Dick Cheney and Condoleeza Rice paid such high attention to Kazakhstan.)
Unsurprisingly, Kazakhstan has all along been the centre stage of the great game in the post-Cold War Central Asian region. If geopolitics of energy was at the core of the great game in the nineties, it acquired new dimensions against the backdrop of US occupation of Afghanistan, China’s rise (Belt and Road Initiative in particular) and the New Cold War with Russia.
Nazarbayev deftly balanced Kazakhstan’s relations with the big powers, while maintaining a ‘Russia first’ policy. But the country is entering transition and Washington hopes to encourage a surge of Kazakh nationalism leading to a ‘regime change’ in Astana, which would roll back Russian influence and present China with a prickly neighbour.
Russia has a 6846-kilometer border with Kazakhstan, while China shares a 1782-kilometre border. Moscow and Beijing will be horrified if the CIA were to set up base camp in Astana or if Pentagon were to deploy the ABM system. The US diplomacy is gearing up for the post-Nazarbayev era.
However, in immediate terms, Trump’s main concern will be what Nazarbayev can do to help the Pentagon win the war in Afghanistan. Kazakhstan can make a difference. Like in the past, it can depute Kazakh contingents to fight in Afghanistan; it can support the Afghan economy; it can make vital intelligence inputs; and, it can play a useful role when it chairs the UN Security Council in 2018. Most important, Kazakhstan can provide a transit route (especially air corridor) via the Northern Distribution Network, which will allow Trump to exercise the option to punish Pakistan, even at the cost of closure of the two transit routes through Pakistan.
Will Nazarbayev play ball? It’s unlikely if Moscow were to frown upon the idea. Trump would know that discussing Afghanistan with Nazarbayev is almost as good as having a conversation with President Putin. So, the next big question is: Can Nazarbayev mediate a US-Russia congruence over Afghan situation?
Without doubt, Nazarbayev would have discussed the forthcoming visit to Washington with Putin. The two statesmen frequently talk on the phone. They met in Moscow recently. The superb quality of the relationship and the mutual trust and confidence between the two leaderships come out in the Kremlin transcript of that meeting on December 27.
This is going to be a high-stakes meeting for regional security in South and Central Asia. Nazarbayev is an old war-horse and very unlike Trump in personality and temperament. But then, both are realists. To be sure, the great game in the steppes is awakening from its slumber and slouching toward activism.
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