Trump has all but decided to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal: sources

[TheImmortal]

https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/new...our-sanctions-waivers-on-iran-nuclear-program

The Trump administration will extend sanctions waivers allowing limited work on Iran’s civil nuclear program for another 60 days, two people familiar with the matter said.

At the same time, the administration will announce sanctions on the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and its chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a decision that hasn’t been publicly announced.

The decision to extend the waivers follows an internal disagreement between Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who had advocated ending the waivers, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who wanted them extended.

The sanctions are meant to punish Iran for what the U.S. says is Tehran’s recent nuclear proliferation efforts, one of the people said.

Iran had earlier announced it would no longer be bound by uranium enrichment limits imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal President Donald Trump quit in 2018.

Trump has since imposed a raft of sanctions on Iran’s economy but had held off ending the four waivers that allowed other participants in the deal, including China, Russia and the U.K., to cooperate on limited nonproliferation work with Iran.

The decision to extend the waivers for now avoids a confrontation with European nations who argue that the nonproliferation work allows them and the U.S. to keep an eye on Iran’s nuclear program.

Whats the bet one of these bullsh~t waivers is for the redesign of the arak reactor?.Iran should be working on getting the chinese to pull out of the redesign effort just like the russians pulled out of the fordow isotope production plan,as this will both allow fordow to remain as a uranium enrichment facility and arak to be built to its original non enriched design.

uhh yeah of course one of the sanctions waiver is for Arak. it’s too late for Arak, Iran wants a modern design. And it’s getting to work side by side on the project so it’s basically get a form of ToT as well in building modern designs.

Russians pulled out of Fordow because they were converting into medical isotope then Iran injected uranium gas into the centrifuges which basically made it pointless For Russia firm to continue operating.

 

[Sineva]

Now here is a very,very interesting idea indeed.....

One idea making the rounds in Iran is to preempt the European effort to snap back the UN sanctions by hitting the United Nations with a conditional notice of withdrawal from the NPT, stipulating that it will withhold its decision to quit the treaty only if the other signatories to the nuclear agreement uphold their commitments. The advantage of such a conditional notice of withdrawal is that, unlike North Korea’s exit, Iran’s move would not be automatically connected to a pernicious nuclear weapons drive, but rather to Iran’s legitimate demand for fair play and the end of Western double standards exacting a heavy toll on Iran’s economy and the well-being of its population.
https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/irans-impending-exit-from-the-npt-a-new-nuclear-crisis/

 

[Sineva]

uhh yeah of course one of the sanctions waiver is for Arak. it’s too late for Arak, Iran wants a modern design. And it’s getting to work side by side on the project so it’s basically get a form of ToT as well in building modern designs.

Russians pulled out of Fordow because they were converting into medical isotope then Iran injected uranium gas into the centrifuges which basically made it pointless For Russia firm to continue operating.

I dont really know what you`re on about with regards to arak and iran certainly isnt going to be given any forms of tot especially with regards to anything nuclear.Arak will be modified to use low enriched fuel,which basically defeats the whole purpose of a heavy water moderated reactor,but then this was about politics not nuclear engineering sadly.Effectively the role of the chinese and british is to oversee irans redesign of the reactor and to provide technical advice if needed ie they are nothing more than consultants.
Iran did not inject uranium hexafluoride into the centrifuges that were to be used for isotope production,these were kept quite separate from the uranium enrichment cascades.

 

[Navigator]

Iran did not inject uranium hexafluoride into the centrifuges that were to be used for isotope production,these were kept quite separate from the uranium enrichment cascades.

There in Fordow all 1044 centrifuges have been maintained in one wing, so called Unit 2 acc to IAEA reports. Russians suspended work in Fordow because centrifuges for producing medical isotopes must be isolated from centrifuges that now again used for uranium enrichements according to safety rules.

 

[TheImmortal]

I dont really know what you`re on about with regards to arak and iran certainly isnt going to be given any forms of tot especially with regards to anything nuclear.Arak will be modified to use low enriched fuel,which basically defeats the whole purpose of a heavy water moderated reactor,but then this was about politics not nuclear engineering sadly.Effectively the role of the chinese and british is to oversee irans redesign of the reactor and to provide technical advice if needed ie they are nothing more than consultants.
Iran did not inject uranium hexafluoride into the centrifuges that were to be used for isotope production,these were kept quite separate from the uranium enrichment cascades.

Are you dense or something? Both Iranian and Chinese nuclear engineers are working on implementing the design. Or do you think that Iran is going to allow Chinese/Western spies to install equipment without any oversight into what there installing? Seriously laughable.

IR-40 is going to be a prototype test bed for a larger Darkhovin Nuclear Power Plant.

Arak was never going to be brought online in its old design it was merely a bargaining chip, hence why Iran dragged its feet with bringing the site online from 2006-2012. Same as Fordow, another bargaining chip.

Issue with Iran is they burned through their bargains chips and now have none. Reverting the Arak design is too cumbersome at this point irregardless what that bafoon Salehi says. He got duped by the Americans hard.

Once IR-6’s and IR-4’s get mass produced it all becomes irrelevant and Iran’s breakout time becomes a mere weeks or a couple months.

Iran will stay a latent nuclear power till either Rahbar passes away and geopolitics give rise for Iran to become a nuclear weapons power or Saudi Arabia/Turkey detonate nuclear bomb.

Iran needs to expand its economy and join 1T GDP economy club. It doesn’t matter how many nukes you have when your GDP is less than 400B that’s a joke.

 

[yavar]

Are you dense or something? Both Iranian and Chinese nuclear engineers are working on implementing the design. Or do you think that Iran is going to allow Chinese/Western spies to install equipment without any oversight into what there installing? Seriously laughable.
.

the Chinese have not honor the agreement under JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) and they are in full violating their commitment economically ( by not paying oil money which they are purchasing and add to their debt) and in nuclear.


so in these video you can clearly see there is no chinese presence in Arak and it been reversed upgraded to prior nuclear deal

 

[Sineva]

Are you dense or something? Both Iranian and Chinese nuclear engineers are working on implementing the design. Or do you think that Iran is going to allow Chinese/Western spies to install equipment without any oversight into what there installing? Seriously laughable.

No,the redesign work is iranian with the chinese acting purely as consultants,you were the one claiming that iran was "getting to work side by side on the project so it’s basically get a form of ToT as well in building modern designs." not me.

IR-40 is going to be a prototype test bed for a larger Darkhovin Nuclear Power Plant.

That might have been the original plan for the original natural uranium fueled heavy water reactor design long,long ago before iran had mastered the fuel cycle,tho other sources claim that the reactor was in fact to be a new light water design constructed using experience gained on the heavy water project,but that makes no sense whatsoever within the context of the jcpoa agreement for a redesigned reactor which uses both heavy water AND enriched fuel and was carried out purely as an anti proliferation measure.This makes absolutely no sense as a prototype for a larger commercial reactor design.

Arak was never going to be brought online in its old design it was merely a bargaining chip, hence why Iran dragged its feet with bringing the site online from 2006-2012. Same as Fordow, another bargaining chip.

Yeah...either that or maybe because iran had never built a reactor of any kind before,so I guess we`ll just have to agree to disagree on that score,altho if it was merely a bargaining chip then why not just agree to scrap it or accept a foreign light water research reactor as a replacement?
As for fordow you dont spend the kind of time,effort and money iran did just to create a bargaining chip when you already have natanz,also if it was just a bargaining chip then why on earth did they bother coming up with the idiotic idea of turning it into a research center and isotope production facility......80m underground!?.Fordow was there for a very real reason and that was the very real fear that natanz could be destroyed.

Reverting the Arak design is too cumbersome at this point irregardless what that bafoon Salehi says. He got duped by the Americans hard.

Not necessarily,it was claimed that enough materiel was imported for the construction of a second core and with the experience gained constructing the first one,a second core could be constructed far more quickly.
As for the iranians getting "duped",up to a point I would agree,it was foolish to destroy the original core before the new modified one had been constructed and emplaced in the reactor.

Once IR-6’s and IR-4’s get mass produced it all becomes irrelevant and Iran’s breakout time becomes a mere weeks or a couple months.

On that score I can agree,provided of course that the cascades are in a well protected location like fordow obviously.

Iran will stay a latent nuclear power till either Rahbar passes away and geopolitics give rise for Iran to become a nuclear weapons power or Saudi Arabia/Turkey detonate nuclear bomb.

Quite likely,tho there are many different degrees of nuclear latency.One thing that will not change however is the threat that the us poses to iran and its interests,the only real question is whether trump and his brand of neo fascism is simply a temporary aberration or the new normal.

Iran needs to expand its economy and join 1T GDP economy club. It doesn’t matter how many nukes you have when your GDP is less than 400B that’s a joke.

I agree,tho it is not the easiest thing to do when you have a neo fascist gangster regime trying to strangle the economic life out of you,especially when you have a government that practices "strategic patience" ie does little to nothing in retaliation.Ultimately we will just have to wait and see what policies rouhanis successor regime comes up with to deal with the threat,be they economic,political or other.....

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1222909612032233472

 

[Sineva]

The IAEA appears to be back to its old tricks under its new chief.

https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/new...mands-clarifications-on-irans-nuclear-program

IAEA Chief Demands 'Clarifications' on Iran's Nuclear Program

The head of the UN's atomic watchdog on Tuesday sounded the alarm at Iran's cooperation with the agency and demanded "clarifications" over an undeclared site in Tehran where uranium particles were found late last year.

It comes on the same day as the IAEA issued two reports, one on Iran's current nuclear program and the other detailing its denial of access to two sites the agency wanted to visit.

Rafael Grossi, the new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who was in Paris to meet President Emmanuel Macron, told AFP: "Iran must decide to cooperate in a clearer manner with the agency to give the necessary clarifications."

"The fact that we found traces (of uranium) is very important. That means there is the possibility of nuclear activities and material that are not under international supervision and about which we know not the origin or the intent.

"That worries me," Grossi added.

The IAEA has for months been pressing Tehran for information about the kind of activities being carried out at the undeclared site where the uranium particles were found.

While the IAEA has not identified the site in question, diplomatic sources told AFP the agency asked Iran about a site in the Turquzabad district of Tehran, where Israel has alleged secret atomic activity in the past.

In addition, according to a report issued by the IAEA on Tuesday, "the Agency identified a number of questions related to possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three locations in Iran".

At one of them the report said the IAEA had from early July 2019 observed "activities... consistent with effort to sanitize part of the location".

A diplomatic source said that the three locations were separate to Turquzabad.

The source also said that the agency's queries were thought to relate to Iran's historic nuclear activities and not to its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

The IAEA report says the agency first raised questions about the sites last year and that Iran refused access to two of them that the agency wished to visit in late January.

Iran then sent the IAEA a letter saying it did "not recognize any allegation on past activities and does not consider itself obliged to respond to such allegations".

Deal in Danger

The second report from the agency detailed Iran's current breaches of several parts of a landmark 2015 international deal on scaling back its nuclear programme.

The report showed Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium now stands at more than five times the limit fixed under the accord.

It said that as of February 19, 2020 the Iranian stockpile stood at the equivalent of 1,510 kilogrammes, as opposed to the 300 kg limit set under the agreement.

Some experts consider this amount to provide sufficient material to produce a nuclear weapon, depending on its exact level of purity.

However, it would still need several more steps, including further enrichment, to make it suitable for use in a weapon.

The report says that Iran has not been enriching uranium above 4.5 percent.

An enrichment level of around 90 percent would be needed for weapons use.

Richard Nephew, a former lead US sanctions expert during the negotiations for the 2015 deal, pointed out that while the latest figures were "a problem (that)... needs to be addressed", Iran's uranium stockpile remains a fraction of what it was before the deal actually came into force.

"This remains not yet a crisis and we have time to fix it diplomatically, if anyone in Washington or Tehran is still so inclined," he said on Twitter.

The 2015 deal has been hanging by a thread since the US withdrew from it in May 2018 and went on to impose stinging sanctions on Iran, in particular targeting its vital oil sector.

The latest IAEA reports come just days after a meeting in Vienna of the remaining parties to the deal ended without a clear plan to keep the accord alive.

The 2015 agreement promised Iran an easing of very damaging economic and other sanctions in return for scaling back its nuclear programme.

Tehran has been progressively reducing its commitments to the accord in retaliation for the US move.

By Didier Lauras and Jastinder Khera

 

[OldTwilight]

https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/13...دسیسه-ای-برای-کشاندن-ایران-به-شورای-امنیت-است

 

[Sineva]

I guess if you were generous then you could call this the american version of "strategic patience",tho when one considers the wests previous history both with iran and the wider mena region it really just looks like more good old bad old western self delusion and wishful thinking.

Intel: Biden adviser downplays role of upcoming Iran elections in fate of nuclear deal
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...n-election-nuclear-deal-sullivan-rouhani.html

A foreign policy adviser to former Vice President and current presidential candidate Joe Biden downplayed the role that Iran’s presidential elections next year will have on Tehran’s potential willingness to revive the flailing nuclear deal.

“The election of [President Hassan Rouhani] was not irrelevant toward the outcome of nuclear diplomacy, but it’s also not dispositive,” Jake Sullivan, an informal adviser to the Biden campaign, said in a virtual Center for Strategic and International Studies interview today. “At the end of the day, the Iranian calculus is going to be driven more out of a combination of where the Supreme Leader and the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the Supreme Council on National Security are than where the president’s office is,” he added.

Sullivan acknowledged that a conservative hard-liner replacing Rouhani would “have an impact, but I don’t think it’s going to be the key,” noting that there’s “a diversity of opinion within the Iranian leadership.”

Why it matters: Biden has vowed to re-renter the nuclear deal and lift Washington’s crippling sanctions on Iran if he wins the US elections in November and if Tehran returns to compliance with the accord.

“The key question for Iran is whether if offered basically a choice between continuing substantial economic pressure and some mode of agreement with other actors in the region, whether they find a way to get to the table,” said Sullivan, adding, “My view is that the United States should be putting a lot more chips down at the table to sort of generate the start of that kind of conversation than has happened under the Trump administration over the last three years.”

What’s next: Rouhani will not be eligible to run for re-election next year after having served two terms. This opens the field for a variety of conservatives, moderates and Reformists to articulate their competing visions for the future of Iranian foreign policy.

 

[Sineva]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-gone-through-swiss-government-idUSKCN24S0MV

Wow!,this is almost as successful as instex......[VOMITS]
Iran should be literally pulling out all of the stops to develop both its own indigenous pharmaceutical industries and its medical equipment manufacturers.It is the height of utter folly to depend upon the west for vital strategic necessities such as these.

 

[Sineva]

☢BBC HARDtalk Interview - Rafael Grossi, - Director General, IAEA☢

A very interesting interview with Rafael Grossi.
Naturally most of it is about iran,but grossi actually comes off looking a lot more impartial,or at least trying to for appearance sake,than I would`ve expected especially since the interviewer is for most of the interview pushing the typical anti-iran/pro western line as much as he can.
Definitely worth a look.