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Daniel S. Markey, Senior Research Professor in International Relations, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s incoming administration has shown little interest in the shifting tectonic plates of great power politics in Asia. There are good reasons to expect, however, that President-Elect Trump will double down on closer relations with India, carrying forward a bipartisan tradition that started during the Clinton administration. In the process, the United States is also likely to pursue a tougher line with Pakistan and a counterterrorism-first agenda in Afghanistan.
Trump’s business ties with Indian real estate developers, political links to right-wing Indian-American groups, and passion for Twitter set the stage for a close personal bond with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump’s desire to tone down U.S. differences with Russia is also welcome in India, given that New Delhi continues to do business, including big defense deals, with Moscow. Trump’s tough talk about China’s trade practices also resonates in India, where similar concerns buttress India’s own protectionist trade practices. One area of possible U.S.-India tension will be Trump’s anti-immigration stance, as Indian nationals are top recipients of H1-B visas and India’s Muslim community is among the three largest in the world. Visa matters aside, Trump’s affinity for India will be reinforced by his perception that the country is a fellow victim of “radical Islamic terrorism,” which Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Flynn, sees as the singular, overarching threat facing the United States.
“A continuing U.S. tilt toward India will come at Pakistan’s expense.”
A continuing U.S. tilt toward India will come at Pakistan’s expense. Indo-Pakistani hostilities date to both nations’ independence from British rule in 1947, and Islamabad has long cultivated anti-Indian terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba. Flynn’s firsthand experience fighting Pakistan-based terrorists like the Haqqani network in Afghanistan make it even more likely that the Trump administration will take a more coercive, less patient approach with Pakistan. That could mean slashing military assistance and taking more direct action against Pakistan-based terrorists via drone, cross-border raids, and other covert activities.
At the same time, Trump is no fan of “nation building,” so Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to see sharp reductions in U.S. civilian development aid. In 2015, Pakistan received over $500 million in economic-related assistance, and under the Obama administration USAID has been active in a range of programs (PDF) related to energy, economic growth, stabilization, education, and health. In Afghanistan, a sharper focus on fighting terrorism could mean a further reduction and reshaping of the U.S. military presence there, one more devoted to killing militants of the self-proclaimed Islamic State and al-Qaeda than to building the capacity of Afghanistan’s armed forces.
It is at least conceivable that the Trump administration could translate a pro-India, counterterrorism-first agenda into effective leverage in negotiations with Islamabad, as well as with leaders of Afghanistan’s Taliban insurgency. But this would be a challenging assignment, and one that would also run the risk of exacerbating regional tensions that have already spawned acts of international terrorism and regional war.
source: http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/future-asia-pivot-under-trump/p38581
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about author: Daniel appeared on Pakistani tv right after OBL attack in Pakistani territory.
President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s incoming administration has shown little interest in the shifting tectonic plates of great power politics in Asia. There are good reasons to expect, however, that President-Elect Trump will double down on closer relations with India, carrying forward a bipartisan tradition that started during the Clinton administration. In the process, the United States is also likely to pursue a tougher line with Pakistan and a counterterrorism-first agenda in Afghanistan.
Trump’s business ties with Indian real estate developers, political links to right-wing Indian-American groups, and passion for Twitter set the stage for a close personal bond with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump’s desire to tone down U.S. differences with Russia is also welcome in India, given that New Delhi continues to do business, including big defense deals, with Moscow. Trump’s tough talk about China’s trade practices also resonates in India, where similar concerns buttress India’s own protectionist trade practices. One area of possible U.S.-India tension will be Trump’s anti-immigration stance, as Indian nationals are top recipients of H1-B visas and India’s Muslim community is among the three largest in the world. Visa matters aside, Trump’s affinity for India will be reinforced by his perception that the country is a fellow victim of “radical Islamic terrorism,” which Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Flynn, sees as the singular, overarching threat facing the United States.
“A continuing U.S. tilt toward India will come at Pakistan’s expense.”
A continuing U.S. tilt toward India will come at Pakistan’s expense. Indo-Pakistani hostilities date to both nations’ independence from British rule in 1947, and Islamabad has long cultivated anti-Indian terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba. Flynn’s firsthand experience fighting Pakistan-based terrorists like the Haqqani network in Afghanistan make it even more likely that the Trump administration will take a more coercive, less patient approach with Pakistan. That could mean slashing military assistance and taking more direct action against Pakistan-based terrorists via drone, cross-border raids, and other covert activities.
At the same time, Trump is no fan of “nation building,” so Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to see sharp reductions in U.S. civilian development aid. In 2015, Pakistan received over $500 million in economic-related assistance, and under the Obama administration USAID has been active in a range of programs (PDF) related to energy, economic growth, stabilization, education, and health. In Afghanistan, a sharper focus on fighting terrorism could mean a further reduction and reshaping of the U.S. military presence there, one more devoted to killing militants of the self-proclaimed Islamic State and al-Qaeda than to building the capacity of Afghanistan’s armed forces.
It is at least conceivable that the Trump administration could translate a pro-India, counterterrorism-first agenda into effective leverage in negotiations with Islamabad, as well as with leaders of Afghanistan’s Taliban insurgency. But this would be a challenging assignment, and one that would also run the risk of exacerbating regional tensions that have already spawned acts of international terrorism and regional war.
source: http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/future-asia-pivot-under-trump/p38581
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about author: Daniel appeared on Pakistani tv right after OBL attack in Pakistani territory.
