Trade leverage can halt Vietnam’s turn to US

[TaiShang]

Trade leverage can halt Vietnam’s turn to US
Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-25

The new round of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations begins on Monday. When Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung shook hands with US Ambassador to Vietnam Ted Osius on January 7, Osius told him that the White House would be more flexible so that talks could be wrapped up in March for approval by Congress in May.

The marathon negotiations, which started more than five years ago, seem to have entered the last phase as the US makes some compromises. Hanoi hopes this economic treaty will boost Vietnam's economic growth, and most importantly, relieve itself from long-term reliance on imports from China. What's more, growing tensions in the South China Sea have been pushing Vietnam to seek a patron to counterbalance China's influence. The US is its best option.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the normalized relations between Vietnam and the US. Regardless of enduring antagonism, the occasion offers a critical impetus for both sides to come closer. Washington's compromise in the TPP negotiations is a gift to Hanoi, but the gift is given at a price.

History has proven millions of times that the US will never give in for no reason in negotiations, particularly when it has gained the upper hand. In this case, Washington's concession is not a tactical one made to support petty interests but a strategic one that might impact the entire regional political landscape.

2015 will also be a politically intense year for Vietnam, as the Communist Party's 12th Congress will renew its leadership in January 2016. Dung, the incumbent prime minister of Vietnam, is probably already aiming for the top post, general secretary of the ruling party. In the divided Vietnamese political arena, Dung, a representative of the pro-American faction, will probably dramatically change Vietnam's national strategy and foreign policy to welcome more US engagement.

Washington has realized Dung's potential as an effective proxy. Knowing the 12th Congress might be the only chance for Dung to take supreme power, the US intends to praise the accomplishments of the TPP talks as one of Dung's major achievements. In this case, Washington is attempting its old color revolution tricks in Vietnam in an attempt to solicit Vietnam as a Philippines-like pawn to constrain China's rise.

Therefore, 2015 is a critical year for the tripartite game between China, the US and Vietnam. Although Beijing and Hanoi quickly restored ties late last year after a year-long face-off, Washington's attempt to rope in Hanoi will easily break the vulnerable regional security framework, posing hazards to the integrity of China's territorial sovereignty.

Thus, what China will face with its neighbor in the south will probably be a situation even more intense than what it experienced in 2014.

Unlike the US, which brazenly intervenes in other countries' domestic affairs, China could employ more acceptable means to help Vietnam benefit from a positive bilateral relationship. If Vietnam sides with the US to counter China,however, Beijing is also likely to take punitive measures.

In order to prevent Hanoi from continuing to tilt toward Washington, Beijing needs to take a slightly softer stance on some issues to ease the tense situation in the South China Sea. Otherwise, in growing tensions, the odds that Vietnam will be discomfited and become an ally of the US will greatly increase.

China should give full play to its traditional advantages as a major trader with Vietnam and employ various economic measures, particularly investment, to boost Vietnamese infrastructure and economic strength. China should redouble its efforts to promote interconnection between both countries, such as taking advantage of the 21st Century Silk Road project. Real benefits will make Vietnam stay clear-headed enough to weigh the pros and cons when making decisions that involve China and the US.

• 
  

 

[bolo]

Trade leverage can halt Vietnam’s turn to US
Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-25

The new round of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations begins on Monday. When Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung shook hands with US Ambassador to Vietnam Ted Osius on January 7, Osius told him that the White House would be more flexible so that talks could be wrapped up in March for approval by Congress in May.

The marathon negotiations, which started more than five years ago, seem to have entered the last phase as the US makes some compromises. Hanoi hopes this economic treaty will boost Vietnam's economic growth, and most importantly, relieve itself from long-term reliance on imports from China. What's more, growing tensions in the South China Sea have been pushing Vietnam to seek a patron to counterbalance China's influence. The US is its best option.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the normalized relations between Vietnam and the US. Regardless of enduring antagonism, the occasion offers a critical impetus for both sides to come closer. Washington's compromise in the TPP negotiations is a gift to Hanoi, but the gift is given at a price.

History has proven millions of times that the US will never give in for no reason in negotiations, particularly when it has gained the upper hand. In this case, Washington's concession is not a tactical one made to support petty interests but a strategic one that might impact the entire regional political landscape.

2015 will also be a politically intense year for Vietnam, as the Communist Party's 12th Congress will renew its leadership in January 2016. Dung, the incumbent prime minister of Vietnam, is probably already aiming for the top post, general secretary of the ruling party. In the divided Vietnamese political arena, Dung, a representative of the pro-American faction, will probably dramatically change Vietnam's national strategy and foreign policy to welcome more US engagement.

Washington has realized Dung's potential as an effective proxy. Knowing the 12th Congress might be the only chance for Dung to take supreme power, the US intends to praise the accomplishments of the TPP talks as one of Dung's major achievements. In this case, Washington is attempting its old color revolution tricks in Vietnam in an attempt to solicit Vietnam as a Philippines-like pawn to constrain China's rise.

Therefore, 2015 is a critical year for the tripartite game between China, the US and Vietnam. Although Beijing and Hanoi quickly restored ties late last year after a year-long face-off, Washington's attempt to rope in Hanoi will easily break the vulnerable regional security framework, posing hazards to the integrity of China's territorial sovereignty.

Thus, what China will face with its neighbor in the south will probably be a situation even more intense than what it experienced in 2014.

Unlike the US, which brazenly intervenes in other countries' domestic affairs, China could employ more acceptable means to help Vietnam benefit from a positive bilateral relationship. If Vietnam sides with the US to counter China,however, Beijing is also likely to take punitive measures.

In order to prevent Hanoi from continuing to tilt toward Washington, Beijing needs to take a slightly softer stance on some issues to ease the tense situation in the South China Sea. Otherwise, in growing tensions, the odds that Vietnam will be discomfited and become an ally of the US will greatly increase.

China should give full play to its traditional advantages as a major trader with Vietnam and employ various economic measures, particularly investment, to boost Vietnamese infrastructure and economic strength. China should redouble its efforts to promote interconnection between both countries, such as taking advantage of the 21st Century Silk Road project. Real benefits will make Vietnam stay clear-headed enough to weigh the pros and cons when making decisions that involve China and the US.

Vietnam is not an important market for China. People are still very poor and cannot afford much..what's worse is
Global Times got the cartoon all wrong. The carrot should be replace with fish head.

 

[fadine]

Vietnam turn America revolves mainly due to China accounted for two Paracels and Spratlys of Vietnam. If not look at the basics of the problem, do not say so much.

 

[hans]

It is just a balancing game. Vietnam just want to balance the Chinese influence with US.
Yet China is a super power nearby while US is a bit of too far away, Vietnam may further rely on China..

Vietnam turn America revolves mainly due to China accounted for two Paracels and Spratlys of Vietnam. If not look at the basics of the problem, do not say so much.

 

[fadine]

It is just a balancing game. Vietnam just want to balance the Chinese influence with US.
Yet China is a super power nearby while US is a bit of too far away, Vietnam may further rely on China..

When the Vietnamese are unanimously together, the "super power" is buffalo shit only.

 

[biendong]

Trade leverage can halt Vietnam’s turn to US
Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-25

The new round of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations begins on Monday. When Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung shook hands with US Ambassador to Vietnam Ted Osius on January 7, Osius told him that the White House would be more flexible so that talks could be wrapped up in March for approval by Congress in May.

The marathon negotiations, which started more than five years ago, seem to have entered the last phase as the US makes some compromises. Hanoi hopes this economic treaty will boost Vietnam's economic growth, and most importantly, relieve itself from long-term reliance on imports from China. What's more, growing tensions in the South China Sea have been pushing Vietnam to seek a patron to counterbalance China's influence. The US is its best option.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the normalized relations between Vietnam and the US. Regardless of enduring antagonism, the occasion offers a critical impetus for both sides to come closer. Washington's compromise in the TPP negotiations is a gift to Hanoi, but the gift is given at a price.

History has proven millions of times that the US will never give in for no reason in negotiations, particularly when it has gained the upper hand. In this case, Washington's concession is not a tactical one made to support petty interests but a strategic one that might impact the entire regional political landscape.

2015 will also be a politically intense year for Vietnam, as the Communist Party's 12th Congress will renew its leadership in January 2016. Dung, the incumbent prime minister of Vietnam, is probably already aiming for the top post, general secretary of the ruling party. In the divided Vietnamese political arena, Dung, a representative of the pro-American faction, will probably dramatically change Vietnam's national strategy and foreign policy to welcome more US engagement.

Washington has realized Dung's potential as an effective proxy. Knowing the 12th Congress might be the only chance for Dung to take supreme power, the US intends to praise the accomplishments of the TPP talks as one of Dung's major achievements. In this case, Washington is attempting its old color revolution tricks in Vietnam in an attempt to solicit Vietnam as a Philippines-like pawn to constrain China's rise.

Therefore, 2015 is a critical year for the tripartite game between China, the US and Vietnam. Although Beijing and Hanoi quickly restored ties late last year after a year-long face-off, Washington's attempt to rope in Hanoi will easily break the vulnerable regional security framework, posing hazards to the integrity of China's territorial sovereignty.

Thus, what China will face with its neighbor in the south will probably be a situation even more intense than what it experienced in 2014.

Unlike the US, which brazenly intervenes in other countries' domestic affairs, China could employ more acceptable means to help Vietnam benefit from a positive bilateral relationship. If Vietnam sides with the US to counter China,however, Beijing is also likely to take punitive measures.

In order to prevent Hanoi from continuing to tilt toward Washington, Beijing needs to take a slightly softer stance on some issues to ease the tense situation in the South China Sea. Otherwise, in growing tensions, the odds that Vietnam will be discomfited and become an ally of the US will greatly increase.

China should give full play to its traditional advantages as a major trader with Vietnam and employ various economic measures, particularly investment, to boost Vietnamese infrastructure and economic strength. China should redouble its efforts to promote interconnection between both countries, such as taking advantage of the 21st Century Silk Road project. Real benefits will make Vietnam stay clear-headed enough to weigh the pros and cons when making decisions that involve China and the US.

 

[hans]

Hey guys, we are all adults..
Be practical and realistic.
If you cannot change the great gap between China and Vietnam, why challenge China?
Why not join China and share the great development.
It will bring your people good life..

When the Vietnamese are unanimously together, the "super power" is buffalo shit only.

 

[biendong]

Vietnam is not an important market for China. People are still very poor and cannot afford much..what's worse is
Global Times got the cartoon all wrong. The carrot should be replace with fish head.

without rice of Viet, this Hua Qiu does not existed to troll here.

 

[Viet]

Vietnam is not an important market for China. People are still very poor and cannot afford much..what's worse is
Global Times got the cartoon all wrong. The carrot should be replace with fish head.

what´s wrong with fish head? I like fish head soup.
oh yes, you are rich, I know, you usually take a yuan note, and mas... on it.

yes conkhi brother i know that too

oui, tu es un chien.

 

[dichoi]

Trade leverage can halt Vietnam’s turn to US
Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-25

The new round of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations begins on Monday. When Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung shook hands with US Ambassador to Vietnam Ted Osius on January 7, Osius told him that the White House would be more flexible so that talks could be wrapped up in March for approval by Congress in May.

The marathon negotiations, which started more than five years ago, seem to have entered the last phase as the US makes some compromises. Hanoi hopes this economic treaty will boost Vietnam's economic growth, and most importantly, relieve itself from long-term reliance on imports from China. What's more, growing tensions in the South China Sea have been pushing Vietnam to seek a patron to counterbalance China's influence. The US is its best option.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the normalized relations between Vietnam and the US. Regardless of enduring antagonism, the occasion offers a critical impetus for both sides to come closer. Washington's compromise in the TPP negotiations is a gift to Hanoi, but the gift is given at a price.

History has proven millions of times that the US will never give in for no reason in negotiations, particularly when it has gained the upper hand. In this case, Washington's concession is not a tactical one made to support petty interests but a strategic one that might impact the entire regional political landscape.

2015 will also be a politically intense year for Vietnam, as the Communist Party's 12th Congress will renew its leadership in January 2016. Dung, the incumbent prime minister of Vietnam, is probably already aiming for the top post, general secretary of the ruling party. In the divided Vietnamese political arena, Dung, a representative of the pro-American faction, will probably dramatically change Vietnam's national strategy and foreign policy to welcome more US engagement.

Washington has realized Dung's potential as an effective proxy. Knowing the 12th Congress might be the only chance for Dung to take supreme power, the US intends to praise the accomplishments of the TPP talks as one of Dung's major achievements. In this case, Washington is attempting its old color revolution tricks in Vietnam in an attempt to solicit Vietnam as a Philippines-like pawn to constrain China's rise.

Therefore, 2015 is a critical year for the tripartite game between China, the US and Vietnam. Although Beijing and Hanoi quickly restored ties late last year after a year-long face-off, Washington's attempt to rope in Hanoi will easily break the vulnerable regional security framework, posing hazards to the integrity of China's territorial sovereignty.

Thus, what China will face with its neighbor in the south will probably be a situation even more intense than what it experienced in 2014.

Unlike the US, which brazenly intervenes in other countries' domestic affairs, China could employ more acceptable means to help Vietnam benefit from a positive bilateral relationship. If Vietnam sides with the US to counter China,however, Beijing is also likely to take punitive measures.

In order to prevent Hanoi from continuing to tilt toward Washington, Beijing needs to take a slightly softer stance on some issues to ease the tense situation in the South China Sea. Otherwise, in growing tensions, the odds that Vietnam will be discomfited and become an ally of the US will greatly increase.

China should give full play to its traditional advantages as a major trader with Vietnam and employ various economic measures, particularly investment, to boost Vietnamese infrastructure and economic strength. China should redouble its efforts to promote interconnection between both countries, such as taking advantage of the 21st Century Silk Road project. Real benefits will make Vietnam stay clear-headed enough to weigh the pros and cons when making decisions that involve China and the US.

Vietnam – a reliable long-term partner of Russia
During a recent interview granted to a reporter from VOV, Vadim Bublikov, Russian chargé d’affaires to Vietnam, affirmed that the Southeast Asian nation has always been a reliable long-term partner.
Following are key excerpts from the interview:
On January 30, Vietnam and Russia will mark the 65th anniversary of diplomatic ties. Could you elaborate on what you consider to be the major achievements in the Vietnam-Russia relationship?

Vadim Bublikov:On January 30, Russia and Vietnam will celebrate the 65th anniversary of diplomatic ties and it offers us the occasion to review our two nations’ glorious history. The glorious victory of Vietnamese people in their struggle for independence and freedom is the most unforgettable achievement.
Russia is very proud that it contributed to the Vietnamese people’s victory and its support for the Vietnamese people during the difficult period in the nation’s history. These traditional relations have helped both nations resolve urgent issues in the current context.
Recently, Vietnam-Russia relations have been upgraded to that of a comprehensive strategic partnership. This elevation of Vietnam-Russia relations is attributed to the regular exchange of high-level visits by top leaders.
For example, Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s official visit to Russia took place in November 2014 was very productive and successful. During the visit, Party leader Trong held talks with high-ranking leaders from Russia.
Later, in early December 2014, Russian State Duman Speaker E. Naryshkin visited Vietnam and held talks with Vietnamese top leaders. In 2014, Vietnam successfully concluded FTA negotiations with the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
I want to stress that Vietnam is the first nation for which the Customs Union has signed FTA. The most important cooperative field is oil and gas sector. At present, the oil and gas joint venture Vietsovpetro has operated effectively in Vietnam.
In addition, several major Vietnamese-Russian projects with the participation of leading oil and gas companies Rosneft and Gazprom have been thriving.
Another important cooperative area is the development of nuclear power. The current nuclear power plant in Vietnam was built and operated with the participation of Russia’s State Nuclear Energy Corporation or Rosatom. This might be the largest-scale and most prosperous project in Russia-Vietnam relations
In the science and technology field, Vietnam-Russia Tropical Research and Technological Centre took shape, which also offered cooperative opportunities in the research field.
In the education and training field, thousands of Vietnamese students and post graduates have been studying in Russia due to its high quality and highly-accredited educational institutions. Moreover, the Russian Government has granted scholarships to Vietnamese citizens regularly with the number of scholarships amounting to more than 600.
Currently, both nations have formulated a project to construct a Vietnam-Russia University of Technology in Vietnam. The project will bring the Russian education system closer to Vietnamese students when Russian leading lecturers will come to Vietnam and teach at the University.
Tourism is also a cooperative field which has greatly contributed to the development of other areas. Last year, Vietnam welcomed more than 300,000 Russian tourists.
Both nations have exerted great efforts to strengthen cooperation in the field of research and use of outer space for peaceful purposes. Recently, both countries have signed an inter-governmental agreement on cooperation in the space field. Russia is now bent on enhancing and improving cooperation in this area.
What is Vietnam’s status in Russia’s foreign policies at present?
Vadim Bublikov:Vietnam is one of Russia’s most important partners and has played a greater role in the Asia-Pacific region. Especially, cooperation with Vietnam is one of highest priorities of Russia’s foreign policies in the region. These policies have been reflected in Russian leaders’ official documents such as the President’s decrees dated February 11, 2014 and May 7, 2014 on the implementation of foreign guidelines. The decrees emphasized Vietnam is one of the most important strategic partners and a reliable and long-term partner of Russia thanks to time-honoured relationship.
Could you elaborate on development orientations in Vietnam-Russia relationship in 2015 and the following years?
Vadim Bublikov:For future cooperation, we hoped that the FTA between the Customs Union and Vietnam will open up new opportunities for Vietnamese partners. We will make every effort to increase Russia’s investment in Vietnam as both nations have not fully tapped their potential.
Russia has always welcomed Vietnamese investors to the field of wood processing and seafood in the Far East and Siberia regions.
We will grant more scholarships to Vietnamese students in the future and exert greater efforts to put the Vietnam-Russia University of Technology into operation soon. Moreover, we will continue to enhance cooperation in other fields.
VOV

 

[bolo]

without rice of Viet, this Hua Qiu does not existed to troll here.

Fantasizing again? Southern China is not Viet territory.

 

[Viet]

Hey guys, we are all adults..
Be practical and realistic.
If you cannot change the great gap between China and Vietnam, why challenge China?
Why not join China and share the great development.
It will bring your people good life..

the article recommends the right direction:
"investment, to boost Vietnamese infrastructure and economic strength. China should redouble its efforts to promote interconnection between both countries, such as taking advantage of the 21st Century Silk Road project."

But what are you waiting for? how much more time is going to take before you do the right move? since normalisation, there is not much seen from China. Moreover, I believe you think days and nights how to harm Vietnam.

No, I´m afraid it is too late. the ball is rolling.

 

[Raphael]

It seems the US really is unsatisfied with the current Viet regime - I think they expected an obedient client state that was a clone of the Philippines, but instead found a regime that was more hesitant towards antagonizing China.

Therefore, the only solution they must see is color revolution. Agitate the pro-American faction to launch a rebellion and attempt a coup. I foresee a lot of turmoil in Vietnam's future. Maybe the country will split in two again. And during this turmoil, other SCS claimants (e.g. PRC, RoC, Malaysia, Philippines) might take the opportunity to seize Viet-occupied Spratlys.

 

[frequency]

It seems the US really is unsatisfied with the current Viet regime - I think they expected an obedient client state that was a clone of the Philippines, but instead found a regime that was more hesitant towards antagonizing China.

Therefore, the only solution they must see is color revolution. Agitate the pro-American faction to launch a rebellion and attempt a coup. I foresee a lot of turmoil in Vietnam's future. Maybe the country will split in two again. And during this turmoil, other SCS claimants (e.g. PRC, RoC, Malaysia, Philippines) might take the opportunity to seize Viet-occupied Spratlys.

It wont split into two. Maybe it's regime could collapse due to outside pressure. But who knows, they can be a silent superpower like Germany once used to be.

 

[Raphael]

It wont split into two. Maybe it's regime could collapse due to outside pressure. But who knows, they can be a silent superpower like Germany once used to be.

I don't think you understand the severity of the problem. There are lots of Vietnamese refugees in the West. They never integrate with their adopted homeland, their English (or French or German, etc.) is very poor, they are obsessed with Vietnamese politics, and they still haven't accepted the result of the Vietnam War 40 years after its conclusion. They survive on a diet of fish heads and manicure and scrub white people's feet (as "nail technicians") for a living. Then they send the money they save up (often it is quite substantial) back to Vietnam, to support anti-government agitation groups. I have seen this with my own eyes in the USA, and I'm sure it happens in Canada too. Maybe @AgentOrange can confirm.

Anyway, to summarize, there is a lot of pressure from overseas Vietnamese against the communist Viet government. But at the same time, the current regime has had 40 years to consolidate their rule. So if overseas Viets get their foot in the door in Vietnam, the result won't be a clean regime collapse/change. It will be Syrian-style civil war.