Tracking Variables of Security

[fatman17]

Pakistan Index

Tracking Variables of Security.



Number of Monthly Attacks by Type, October 2008 – present. The incidence of monthly terrorists attacks remain at the same level (~130/m) from October -2008 to January 2012. Militant attacks reached a high point of ~275/m during the period December – April – 2008. Attacks on security forces by militants remain at less than 25/m. The period between December – 2008 and 2009 saw some of the heaviest attacks by the militants on the security forces (50/m). Operational attacks by security forces have come down considerably since a high of 75/m in 2008 – 09 to as low as 25/m at the end of January – 2012.

Monthly Fatalities as a Result of Attacks by Group, October 2008 – present. Civilian deaths have come down considerably from a monthly high of 400/m during June – 2008 to June – 2009 to less than 50/m at the end of January – 2012. Militant deaths reached a high of ~1,400/m during April – June 2008 but now average ~400/m as of January – 2012. Security Forces casualties have remained less than 100/m during the period October – 2008 to January – 2012.

Monthly Attacks by Province, January 2006- present. KPK came under heavy militant attacks (~180/m) during September – 2008 to July – 2009 followed by FATA. The worst month for militant attacks in FATA was July – 2009. Average militant attacks in FATA remain at ~70/m. attacks in Sindh & Punjab remain low in comparison averaging less than 5/m. in Baluchistan militant attacks targeting infrastructure remain high at ~70/m.

Annual Number of Suicide Attacks by Province, 2002-2010. From nearly NIL suicide attacks in 2002, the country was ravaged by the menace of suicide attacks starting in 2006 (KPK-35, Punjab – 10, FATA-10, Baluchistan – 5 and Sindh – 5) to a peak in 2009 ( KPK -55, Punjab – 25, FATA – 7, Baluchistan – 3 and Sindh – 3).

Estimated Number of Insurgent Forces in Pakistan
TOTAL TALIBAN FORCES
Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban) Forces
20,000-25,000
High End 100,000
Low End 10,000

Possible Additional Assets
Punjabi Militants 2,000
Afghan Taliban 32,000-40,000
Uzbek Militants 1,000-2,000
al Qaeda's "Shadow Army" 8,000-12,000
Maximum Potential Forces 156,000
Minimum Potential Forces 30,000-40,000



Estimated Number of Al Qaeda Leaders and Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan
..................Summer 2011………………………………………………………….Summer 2010
Afghanistan....50-80…………………………………………………………………..50-100
Pakistan..........N/A…………………………………………………………………….~300

NOTE: Over half of Al Qaeda’s leadership has been killed or captured through mid-2011.



Pakistani Forces Deployed to the Afghanistan Border – 2001 – 2011.

Year….. Pakistani Army……………………………………Frontier Corps
2001-3…2,000………………………………………………55,000
2004……10,000…………………………………………….55,000
2005……30,000…………………………………………….55,000
2006……46,000…………………………………………….55,000
2007-8…65,000……………………………………………..55,000
2009……90,000…………………………………………….55,000
2010……45,000…………………………………………….55,000
2011……95,000…………………………………………….55,000


*As of first quarter 2011. Army forces were redeployed in the region during late 2010 to respond to Monsoon flooding during that summer.


Annual Number of Unmanned Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2012. The first recorded predator strike occurred in Pakistan in June – 2004.
9 in 2007,
35 in 2008,
53 in 2009,
117 in 2010 and
3 until Jan – 2012.

The highest number of drone strikes occurred in the month of October – 2010 with 21.

The location of drone strikes is as follows;

North Waziristan – 193 (68%)
South Waziristan – 74 (26%)
Khyber – 5, Bajaur – 3, Bannu – 3, kurram – 4, and Orakzai – 1.

NOTE: Figures are cumulative from 2004-2012 (through publication date). All districts with the exception of Bannu (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) are located in FATA.



Estimated Total Deaths from U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2006-2011

Year……………….DEATHS (low)……DEATHS (high)

2011…..All………...378………………536
Militants…..362………………500
2010…..All………...607………………993
Militants…..581………………939
2009…..All………...368………………724
Militants…..265………………501
2008…..All………...273………………313
Militants…..133………………164
2004-7…..All………..89………………112
Militants….. 81………………103
Total……..All………..1,717…………..2,860
Militants….. .1,424…………..2,209

Through November 16, 2011


Operations Conducted by the Pakistani Army, 2001 – 2010.

2002 – 25 – minor ops
2003 – 20 – minor ops
2004 – 40 – minor ops
2005 – 40 – mainly major ops
2006 – 15 – minor ops (1 major op)
2007 – 150 – 100 minor & 50 major ops
2008 – 220 = 175 minor & 45 major ops
2009 – 725 – 510 minor & 215 major ops
2010 – 15 – minor ops.

NOTE: Roughly 89% of all operations during the period were conducted from 2007-2009. *2010 numbers are through mid-February.


Number of Military Posts along the Afghanistan/Pakistan Border.
Date………………………………………………..Number of posts
2010……………………………………………….821.


Pakistani Army Casualties, 2001-2011.

Year……….Total……..Injured………Killed
2004………475………325………....150.
2005………250………200…………50
2006………490………315…………75
2007………2,050…….1,500………550
2008………1,600…….1,100………500
2009………3,750…….3,000………750
2010………1,900…….1,350………550
2011………2,500…….1,800………700

Numbers from 2001-2009 are from the Pakistani military. 2010-11 numbers are via The Pak Institute for Peace Studies and are through the month prior to current index.


Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Attacks and Deaths in Pakistan, 2006-2009.

Year…………IED Attacks………….Deaths

2006………….646………………..222
2007…………1,046………………376
2008…………912…………………814
2009…………1,308……………….1,104




Logistical Supply Support to ISAF Provided through Pakistan, through 2009.

Support type…….Percentage of overall………………………….. total
Container cargo….84% (less than .1% loss)
57,823 containers over the period

Fuel……………….40%
NOTE: Numbers are cumulative for the period in which ISAF has required logistical support for its mission.


data taken from Brookings Institute.