Mangus Ortus Novem
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2008
- Messages
- 2,984
- Reaction score
- 186
- Country
- Location
War is the most horrible, darkest of human expression.
War is Stupid.
Only stupid want war.
The Idea of this thread is both an exposition of the nature and consequences of war... and... developing an understanding of dealing with it.
Of course, it is not intended as a Critique of HumanCondition.
It is about Framing the TotalWar in Pakistan's context.
Turning 75 this year. Pakistan is.
25 more years to go. 100!!!
What is Our GrandPlan? Any?
Milestones?
Roadmap?
A long journey it is going to be... beset with huge challenges of correcting the course of the PakState .. in governance and economy.. and most importantly improving the CollectiveLife of all Paks. Education, education, education.. and some more.
Our biggest challenge is going to be shaping the PakNational Character from present Escapismo to that of Inquiry, ScientificMethod and its Application ... and again.. education, education... education. @Reddington
PakState has made public its current thinking in the form of Pak National Security Policy. It is a good start. But it is that.. a start.
Of course, it needs to go through a lot of iterations to have clarity in goals and a Plan to achieve them.
In its current form it is more like an agenda item for discussion than an End Product.
Regardless, this the nature of such documents... and certainly in the case of a country like Pakistan... it is a good start.
It is instructive to read and reflect on the excellent critique of this NSP done by Gen. (rtd) Trariq Khan.
A brilliant analysis and clarity of questions is refreshing... giving impetus to hope that there are a lot of PakBrains which are active and alive to both National and International challenges and can frame their thinking to PakPositive outcomes. One tends to believe that there are more 'end-products' like the esteemed Gen. Khan coming out of our instituitions.
On to TotalWar then....
TotalWar on Pakistan:
The purpose of any conflict is to impose one's will on the other party. Be it tribal or national effort.
Subduing the enemy and imposing one's will is the Only Outcome that matters. If it is not achieved then the 'Cost n Benefit' Ratio of Conflict remains unbalanced... prolonging the it further... costing more.. time, material and lives. More so for the Weaker side.
It is the Cost-Benefit Analysis which is the foundation of actions, semi-actions or non-actions by the SaneStates.
Absence of such Extreme Rationality, states, like peopel, are prone to make massive errors and pay the price for it.
Paks need to understand, especially YoungPaks, that Pakistan, as InheritorState, is in Recovery and requires time still to become a Great Regional Power.
Our Decline started some two plus centuries ago.
And when Decline sets in... it follows its course. It does extract its pounds of Flesh. We should know.. we are still paying in PakBlood and so are PakKashmiris. Long road to Freedom.
It is also imperative to understand that Pakistan at 75 has taken a very long time to be here... being a Weaker and Smaller State than the Enemy and its Friends/Backers... we had to join alliances out of Weakness and need to Survive!
Easy it is for some to criticise on internet about Pak's Choices of the Past and Present... but all those choices have been Choices of Survival. @peagle
Hindsight is a privilge for commentators and critics... but decisions are made in the moments if there is No Long Term Plan of a State. It is what it is ... and this Fact doesn't bother about Morality or Honesty or Ethics.
Neither does it care for lamentations.
The Ugly Truth is that we are a Defeated Order in the Subcontinent and Pakistan is a Miracle to behold...
The Very Creation of Pakistan was the First Step in OurRecovery.
Having a State of our own has enabled us to protect OurTehzeeb and OurIdentity.
Yes, we have a lot of demons in our garden or front yard... but we are a State nevertheless... just have a look at the 'Indian' muslims. Nothing further to add here.
We need to visit and revisit, again and again, the Original, Natural... purposed Map of Pakistan.
And when the Meaning sets in .. it becomes abandently clear that why the British could not allow for such a State to come into being.
Please, YoungPaks, do remember that Quaid e Azam R.A. was against the devisions of Bengal and Punjab on the basis of religion..but the Congress of the good Indians wanted it.
They needed MassGenocide as first step their Recovery. Without the blood of million plus muslims their Order couldn't begin... and it was War.
The TotalWar for the Creation of Pakistan costed Million+ Pak lives ... but the Benefit is Pakistan at 75... giving us OurLand so that we can have The Privilge to criticise Pakistan and PakState...because it is Ours!!!
From our Day 1 till today we are under attack.
Our existence is a threat to the IndianOrder simply because we represent and inherit the Old Order of 1000yrs.
The HybridWar on Pakistan is not new.. it started even before Pakistan came into being @N.Siddiqui @Ace of Spades @M. Sarmad the Cleansing of Muslims from Jammu to Utrakand is yesterdays news.
So this Non-Kinetic Indian Doctorine is not a new thing @PanzerKiel @Signalian @HRK
Even now there is a thread on 10 PakArmy men killed by the Indians via their terrorist pets.
This is just daily addition to 80k PakLives and more billions to the incurring Costs for the PakState i.e Paks who pay for it. APS.
The day Paks or PakState forgets to repay the Debt of APS ... will be day Pakistan has accepted the IndianOrder.
And let us abuse any naivete here... even if Pakistan accepts the IndianOrder like BD it is not going to be enough. Rather it would be an inducement for the good Indians to impose their will more harshpy.
And frankly, why not? Isn't it the purpose of Vicotry?
Till today Pakistan has fought and won all Battles against the IndianOrder in the ArmedConflict Vector.
71 was a fluke and result of insanity and vulgarities of Pak politicos and drunk generals... we had decided long before to part ways with the BDs... lethargy has consequences.
So let the BDs and the good Indians claim that as victory. It has ZERO impact on Pakistan.
Since, 1948 till the current agreement on CeaseFireLine all ArmedConflicts have resulted in nothing that could change the status quo on this FrozenWar between the Two Orders.
There has been No War between Indias and Pakistan. One if fully aware of the implications of such a statement. Nevertheless!
Indians have been unable to impose their Order on us and we are NOT in a position to impose OurOrder on them. The UglyTruth.
But the FrozenWar can not always remain frozen ... A TotalWar on all Vectors is as real as Pakistan. Neither Pakistan nor India can escape it.
The longer it takes for this War to Unfreez the Desructive it shall be. Piling up weapons for what?
Peace is only won when one Order can become pervailant.
That is Essence of Peace. Anyhting else is Rainbows and unicorns... @StormBreaker
This brings us to identifying the Vectors of Destruction imposed on Pakistan.
Please, consider that Quantification of Accumlated Destruction is a challenge in itself and requires a Substative Framework to start compilying data as @SQ8 knows far too well. However, Quantification of Destruction is imperative. Without it understanding the Consequences/Cost of TotalWar is impossible. It should be Quantified in Gold!
The Economist's estimation $200+Bln as Cost of Pak's War on Indian Terrorism in OurLand was a snapshot of that moment i.e. till that date. It failed to factor in the ensuing and subsequent costs, including impact and quantification of loss of life of bread-winner on left-behind widows and orphans... @SIPRA
It might appear dark, apathetic or insensitive...but human life is perfectly quantifiable.. just look at the insurance modelling... will rob anyone of their vague notions... not all humans are equal in quantifications... Woke or Not to Woke is irrellevant as it is fake @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ
Now the Vectors of Destruction then... (these Vectors will be explored later in detail with welcome contribution of the ThinkingHeads of Paks on PDF)
1. Identity Vector
The Idea of Pakistan is based on the Inheritence of PakCivilisation i.e. Two Nation Fact presented by the Original MuslimLeague and successfully championed by Quaid e Azam R.A. in accordance with the Vision of Allama Iqbal R.A.
Both the Great Muslims of their time.. and nemesis of FazoolMullahMafia.
The good Indians attacked this Civilisation/Identity Vector long before Pakistan came into being...
Ghandi's visit to KPK and him being stoned by OurPashtoons there is still great memory.
But lets not forget that the then KabulRegime tried to stir EthnoNationalism in OurPashtoonBelt.... and we can still see their remenants..though greatly reduced now.
PTM came and went... and a new PTM shall come and go as well. TTP is not a religious outfit but an armed variant of the PTM as we all know.
Talibans on OurFence. Reality check??
Similarly the BalochEthnoNationalism was/is financed by the good Indians and some borthers... during the Soviet times and recently during the American times... and of course, still financing them.
And there are the waderas... sain te sain.. sain da kutta vi sain.
Oh those glorious years of SindhuDesh... JaiSindh was all the rage. Money talks. Pay to Play EthnoNationalists. Just wonderful.
Even the all-to-blame-for Punjabis of NarcoTerroristLeague came up with slogans to wake up the Punjabis...jab Punjabi jab.. terri pag te lag gaya dagh. Fun never stops here.
Of course, how to forget the legendary Kalia of Londonistan. LingoFacists to add to the mix.
Now it is easy to play the Victim here. And Playing Victim shall Add Cost to Pakistan in this TotalWar. We don't have the luxury to do that.
That the good Indians wish to exploit and hire for-rent-terror-outfits or invest in political families/dynasties is FairGame as it is TotalWar.
Why wouldn't an Enemy exploit our internal fissures?
It is to be expected and all we can do is not offer Opportunities.
How halirous this is that a major Dam got undammed because some ethnofacist party member had a factory or something there... Ridiculous but true.
And why wouldn't the good Indians pay such people?
Isn't it Cost Effective for them?
Regardless of the above high level description... Paks remain Paks and the Idea of Pakistan has a Pull that is subliminal... even spiritual.
Yes, cynic has the right to see things through his/her lens. And it is valuable to have such views.
Now when we come to the Real meat of this Vector we need to Quantify the Loss to Pakistan when all the above are accumlated.
Just have a look at Karachi that should form the TrueBaseline in Quantification of Loss to Pakistan.
When we see Karachi as a Battleground ... then my dear Paks, have we won or lost?
Yes, we need to factor in the PPP's facist policies of quotaz and ChinaCutting by all the card-bearing memebers of the CriminalEnterprise. Surely, PDF has enough TTz to Quantify the Net Loss using Karachi as Baseline. Waiting for it.
And since Pakistan neither has the Resources nor do we have the inclination to affect similar courtesy to the good Indians in the Identity Vector... our Benefits have been none!
PakKashmiris are in Struggle on their own despite the sold-out IOK politicos... and Mushy proved to be 'good guy' and fenced the CeaseFireLine... it is Stupid to call it LoC.
Fleatingly one would draw attention to the glorious SecterianFunk. Loyalists of Persians and Saudis... and that is that. Not going further than this. This too needs to be quantified in terms of Loss to Pakistan.
2. Economic Vector
When OurLand came up as a map on the atals we had No Money to run the nascent PakState. The good Indians withheld OurMoney to kill our statehood in infancy, courtesy Nehru!
YoungPaks must recall that it was Paks who left their homes for OurLand gave money to treasury to run the state.
We had NOTHING. Just land. IMF is our phraand!
Yes, we have had and still do... so many challenges that running the PakState and providing BasicServices to Paks is a Huge Challenge... but again we don't have the luxury to play the Victim.
It is instructive to note that China was far poorer and hungerier back then and all the way to the early 80s. They had a National Plan and we don't. That is why China is Doing the CPEC and not us. Something to ponder about. @vi-va @Shotgunner51
True that the Two AfghanWars have costed us an arm and a leg... and true too that we had No Choice in the matter but to live with the Costs and Consequences the best way we can.
But neither the IMF nor the WorldBank Forced us to NOT have an Economic/Industrial GamePlan i.e. LongTerm Plan divided into FiveYearPlans... eating an elphant with a spoon. And we hear slogans about the ChinaModel of Development. Stupid to say the least.
Once again let us thoroughly abuse this notion. Only China can/could have ChinaDevelopmentModel. None else can.
If someone suggests so then they lack both information and knowledge about the Nature of China. Even in the last years of QingDynasty the imperical court was sending the Chinese to study the American railways. And now if they have the most miles of railtracks of highspeed railways.. it is because they are studious and goal oriented. Call it ConfucianEthics.. call it genetics... it is what it is.
Frankly, most of our loss in this Vector is our own lack of long term planning and defining OurPlace in the World. How do we percieve ourselves?
That the good Indians and Phraandz have kept us in FATF greyzone.. is totally understandable. Again why would an enemy allow you to breath??
The suggestion or oration about we cann't go to war because of poor economy is laughable at best and criminal at worst. @ps3linux
And then there are lumanaries talking about pacifism because of economic realities... Is it acceptance of the IndianOrder? If so then come out a play... why eschew... Funk!
The UglyReality is that to be truly Viable PakState needs to have $1Bln per million Paks in the Reserve. This is MinimumRequirement! And it is so bloody doable that current state of affairs, though understandable as legacy effect, is scary!
So if India is apparently winning in EconomicVector of TotalWar on Pakistan... can we blame them? All we can do now is have an EconomicPlan... choose a DevelopmentModel and stick with it. SouthEastAsia is not descended from Heavens... same brown mass as us.
We need to win this ... we have no other Choice!
3. Diplomatic Vector
60s Pakistan is Gone. The sooner we accept it the better it is for us. Pakistan then was an Economic and Industrial Power compared to our 'brotherly countries'. And that gave us Diplomatic Leverage ... of course, the alliance with the Yanks did help a bit too. But let us not forget 1962, 1965, 1971 and all the way to Kargil. Let us not forget the IndianBias in the CombinedWest.
Once again... YoungPaks need to revisit the history of the dismanteling of the Ottomans and why Paks Original Map was a no-no for the GlobalEmpire. Has anything changed in that equation?
The Rise of China is benefitial to the Chinese first and farmost. It does give us breathing space.. considering that China has used its VetoPower to shield us in the UNSC and helped us with FATF along with Turkiye and Malaysia.
But it does show us our DiplmaticStrength... lack thereof actually.
And if India has leveraged its position/existence as a power to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out in the Subcontinet for the GlobalEmpire... then can we blame them. Enemy is expected to utilise everything to its advantage.
There is NO IslamicWorld. There are countries/states which happens to bear the name muslim... but there is no such thing as IslamicWorld. Yes, there is OilRichArabWorld and then there is Mughreb i.e NorthAfrica and some African countries with muslim majority.
Muslims of SouthEastAsia are nationalists first. A Reality we need to absorb.
The outcome of the SecondAfghanWar is not there yet. It would be diplomatic blunder of highest order to conclude that India is out of Afghanistan or CentralAsia. They are in SCO and have a deal with Russia and Iran to build a corridor through Iran and CaspianSea.
The Monkey was working in Chabhar should we forget ... and Persians fashion themselves after their ancient ancestors!
Therefore, let us accept OurWeakness and Baseline OurCondition so that we can have a Clear DiplomaticBattle Plan.
In case of ArmedWar no brother or friend is coming to our aid... and everyone will side with India even when they commit WarCrimes... as in IoJK so would be in Actual TotalWar.
Starting from such point is imperative in planning WarScenarios.
Just as Reality Check: Why would China want to help us in OurWar?
4. Armed Forces Vector
Of all branches of PakArmedForces PNS' coming of Age is the most welcome sight. OurFleet is shapping up nicely. Still a long way to go to become a RealNavalPower in AfroAsianRegion...but good development all around.
In terms of ArmedConflict the Reality is we are a DefensiveForce. Yes, there are Offensive-Defence elements within OurCapabilities but we are NOT in position to wage an OffensiveWar or War of Conquest against the Enemy. It is UglyTruth. We better accept it.
SwiftRetort was magnificent display of the above. And that is that. We need to forget it and move on.
The Purpose of OurArmedForces is to Deny the good Indians from imposing IndianOrder on Pakistan.
Liberation of IoJK is a complex affair where China is the DecidingFactor. From GHQ to any analyst worth a read knows this. Political slogans are cheap and easy.
PakArmedForces are the Tip of Spear where body of the Spear is PakNation.
This is vitally important that YoungPaks understand this.
PakArmedForces is us and not some alien entity...even though none of this person's chacha, mama or dada was/is in the PakArmedForces... despite this the Ownership is claimed and cherrished.. hence, the desire/demand of Excellence from OurForces!
Till date the good Indians have FAILEd to break the Tip of OurSpear and that comes from the Idea of Pakistan and its Life and Resilience. Something to ponder upon by uniformed and un-uniformed alike!
Yes, OurArmedForces have made tons of mistakes and blunders... and many of decisions are frankly stupid... but overall we are NOT in bad shape.
Of many expectations is one that we NEED to become self-reliant and this has to be One of OurStrategicGoals...
Frankly, there needs to come a stop soon for buying complete systems from even China.. regardless, how helpful they have been or friendly terms of purchases.
It is deliberate attempt from this person to avoid the technical aspects or asset quality/ratio whence compared to the good Indians... simply, because one lacks knowledge and deems essential to take a student posture here.
Surely, we have Paks here who can offer excellent Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Strengths and Weakness of PakArmedForces.
For now we can be assured that the good Indians are not in a position to impose their Order on Pakistan. How long will it last depends on us Paks and NOT the good Indians!!!
Two Scenarios:
If the Observation is correct and there is a FrozenWar between India and Pakistan then it becomes obvious to frame WarScenarios in which such an Unfreezing can happen.
For the sake of discussion and exploration its evident that extremes positions in WarGaming take first row. Everything else is variation of these two. One doesn't have to be a general to understand this simple FACT.
Scenario 1:
Pakistan fails to course correct in Socio-Economic Vectors resulting in fragile Diplomatic Strength and less developed ArmedForces.
The Political Families further destablise OurLand and demand that Pakistan become a Confederation which essentially Pakistan has become since the 18th Amendment. Having no Financial stake in Pakistan the CompradorElite starts bagging the money.
No MarshalLaw can be imposed neither there is a clear PoliticalAthourity to affect an National Emergency.
Also, the CombinedWest has imposed massive SanctionsRegime as Punishment for Pakistan joining fully the BRI. HyperInflation and all that jazz.
India does a FalseFlag and blames it on Pakistan. The CombinedWest already primed to the 'defanging' of Pakistan... starts a media campaign.
NATO moblises all its naval strength in the AfroAsianOcean with the USN in the lead... threatening with NuclearStrikes if PakArmedForces were to use StrategicAssets. Green signal to India to move in.
This time, however, India doesn't amass troops on the border but goes for DecapitationStrike with Brahmos and the lot. The Indian strike is so massive that it not only destroys military instillations but also the civilian i.e. State Infrastructure. The goal being destroying the Functioning of the PakState on every level.
India doesn't move in to capture territory. But keeps the pressure for the disintegration of Pakistan into smaller units. The good old BloodBorder dreams!
Scenario 2:
Pakistan has course corrected and has built both the civilian and military strength. Also, Pakistan possesses ICBMs and has strategic assets above 200 with varrying yields.
The CriminalEnterprise is defanged and made impotent. A new, PanPakistan, political force has matured and enjoys human resources of professional quality to manage the economy and industerialisation. Overall Socio-Economic Indicators are condusive for Pakistan to be a Factor in the ThirdActorDynamics of the ME and Capabilites of Deterence in AfroAsianOceanRegion.
In this Scenario Pakistan does the same as India but only focusing on the BufferZone Destruction i.e. areas bordering Pakistan/HindiBelt and Bombay.
After the First Massive Strike Pakistan is already positioned for the SecondStrike with strategic assets primed and ready.
Pakistan pervails without massive capturing of IndianTerritory. The goal of destroying economic and military capabilities is achieved. IoJK is liberated.
Pakistan does incur damages too but nothing fatal.
The Strategic Objective of Creating BufferZone states is achieved with Sikhs given a choice of freedom.
In both senarios Pakistan depends on its own Zoray e Bazoo and neither on brothers nor on friends.
The outcomes of both scenarios will determine which Order pervails in the subcontinent and another war doesn't happen for a long long time.
Its instructive to note that Pakistan CanNOT afford to loose the TotalWar. Simply because if we loose we cease to exist. Both Afghanistan and Persia will have their pound of flesh from our body in case of defeat.
Pakistan is Tounge Leaving among Teeth for the past 75 years.
Our StrategicGoal has to be to change this equation to our benefit.
Mangus
After Thoughts:
It is quite true that the Vectors are not fully detailed and are generic. However, that is the intention to start a discussion. It is also true that the TwoScenarios appear to be too simplistic and don't involve the overall GlobalStruggle in the MulitpolarDynamics.
This is necessary to StressTest Pakistan's Ability to Pervail. Again we do NOT have the luxury to loose a war. India can loose all the BufferZone and still remain functional as a state. We can not.
Furthermore, one is fully aware that the Vectors of War are lightly touched and are more like place holders at first sight. It is understood that the each Vector has its Siblings and all have Qualities... and each Quality have its Atributes and each Atribute has different Aspects.
Modelling a TotalWar is long and expansive excercise. Hopefully, thinkers on PDF will contribute and remdy this.
Drawing Conclusions already is a great temptation but one should avoid it in the early stages of WarGaming and let the Scenario play out first.
It is Clear as PakSun what Pakistan needs to do.
@jaibi @The Eagle dear Paks, kindly, let this thread remain in this section... given the subject matter one expects it to die a quick death! Thankyou!!!
War is Stupid.
Only stupid want war.
The Idea of this thread is both an exposition of the nature and consequences of war... and... developing an understanding of dealing with it.
Of course, it is not intended as a Critique of HumanCondition.
It is about Framing the TotalWar in Pakistan's context.
Turning 75 this year. Pakistan is.
25 more years to go. 100!!!
What is Our GrandPlan? Any?
Milestones?
Roadmap?
A long journey it is going to be... beset with huge challenges of correcting the course of the PakState .. in governance and economy.. and most importantly improving the CollectiveLife of all Paks. Education, education, education.. and some more.
Our biggest challenge is going to be shaping the PakNational Character from present Escapismo to that of Inquiry, ScientificMethod and its Application ... and again.. education, education... education. @Reddington
PakState has made public its current thinking in the form of Pak National Security Policy. It is a good start. But it is that.. a start.
Of course, it needs to go through a lot of iterations to have clarity in goals and a Plan to achieve them.
In its current form it is more like an agenda item for discussion than an End Product.
Regardless, this the nature of such documents... and certainly in the case of a country like Pakistan... it is a good start.
It is instructive to read and reflect on the excellent critique of this NSP done by Gen. (rtd) Trariq Khan.
A brilliant analysis and clarity of questions is refreshing... giving impetus to hope that there are a lot of PakBrains which are active and alive to both National and International challenges and can frame their thinking to PakPositive outcomes. One tends to believe that there are more 'end-products' like the esteemed Gen. Khan coming out of our instituitions.
On to TotalWar then....
TotalWar on Pakistan:
The purpose of any conflict is to impose one's will on the other party. Be it tribal or national effort.
Subduing the enemy and imposing one's will is the Only Outcome that matters. If it is not achieved then the 'Cost n Benefit' Ratio of Conflict remains unbalanced... prolonging the it further... costing more.. time, material and lives. More so for the Weaker side.
It is the Cost-Benefit Analysis which is the foundation of actions, semi-actions or non-actions by the SaneStates.
Absence of such Extreme Rationality, states, like peopel, are prone to make massive errors and pay the price for it.
Paks need to understand, especially YoungPaks, that Pakistan, as InheritorState, is in Recovery and requires time still to become a Great Regional Power.
Our Decline started some two plus centuries ago.
And when Decline sets in... it follows its course. It does extract its pounds of Flesh. We should know.. we are still paying in PakBlood and so are PakKashmiris. Long road to Freedom.
It is also imperative to understand that Pakistan at 75 has taken a very long time to be here... being a Weaker and Smaller State than the Enemy and its Friends/Backers... we had to join alliances out of Weakness and need to Survive!
Easy it is for some to criticise on internet about Pak's Choices of the Past and Present... but all those choices have been Choices of Survival. @peagle
Hindsight is a privilge for commentators and critics... but decisions are made in the moments if there is No Long Term Plan of a State. It is what it is ... and this Fact doesn't bother about Morality or Honesty or Ethics.
Neither does it care for lamentations.
The Ugly Truth is that we are a Defeated Order in the Subcontinent and Pakistan is a Miracle to behold...
The Very Creation of Pakistan was the First Step in OurRecovery.
Having a State of our own has enabled us to protect OurTehzeeb and OurIdentity.
Yes, we have a lot of demons in our garden or front yard... but we are a State nevertheless... just have a look at the 'Indian' muslims. Nothing further to add here.
We need to visit and revisit, again and again, the Original, Natural... purposed Map of Pakistan.
And when the Meaning sets in .. it becomes abandently clear that why the British could not allow for such a State to come into being.
Please, YoungPaks, do remember that Quaid e Azam R.A. was against the devisions of Bengal and Punjab on the basis of religion..but the Congress of the good Indians wanted it.
They needed MassGenocide as first step their Recovery. Without the blood of million plus muslims their Order couldn't begin... and it was War.
The TotalWar for the Creation of Pakistan costed Million+ Pak lives ... but the Benefit is Pakistan at 75... giving us OurLand so that we can have The Privilge to criticise Pakistan and PakState...because it is Ours!!!
From our Day 1 till today we are under attack.
Our existence is a threat to the IndianOrder simply because we represent and inherit the Old Order of 1000yrs.
The HybridWar on Pakistan is not new.. it started even before Pakistan came into being @N.Siddiqui @Ace of Spades @M. Sarmad the Cleansing of Muslims from Jammu to Utrakand is yesterdays news.
So this Non-Kinetic Indian Doctorine is not a new thing @PanzerKiel @Signalian @HRK
Even now there is a thread on 10 PakArmy men killed by the Indians via their terrorist pets.
This is just daily addition to 80k PakLives and more billions to the incurring Costs for the PakState i.e Paks who pay for it. APS.
The day Paks or PakState forgets to repay the Debt of APS ... will be day Pakistan has accepted the IndianOrder.
And let us abuse any naivete here... even if Pakistan accepts the IndianOrder like BD it is not going to be enough. Rather it would be an inducement for the good Indians to impose their will more harshpy.
And frankly, why not? Isn't it the purpose of Vicotry?
Till today Pakistan has fought and won all Battles against the IndianOrder in the ArmedConflict Vector.
71 was a fluke and result of insanity and vulgarities of Pak politicos and drunk generals... we had decided long before to part ways with the BDs... lethargy has consequences.
So let the BDs and the good Indians claim that as victory. It has ZERO impact on Pakistan.
Since, 1948 till the current agreement on CeaseFireLine all ArmedConflicts have resulted in nothing that could change the status quo on this FrozenWar between the Two Orders.
There has been No War between Indias and Pakistan. One if fully aware of the implications of such a statement. Nevertheless!
Indians have been unable to impose their Order on us and we are NOT in a position to impose OurOrder on them. The UglyTruth.
But the FrozenWar can not always remain frozen ... A TotalWar on all Vectors is as real as Pakistan. Neither Pakistan nor India can escape it.
The longer it takes for this War to Unfreez the Desructive it shall be. Piling up weapons for what?
Peace is only won when one Order can become pervailant.
That is Essence of Peace. Anyhting else is Rainbows and unicorns... @StormBreaker
This brings us to identifying the Vectors of Destruction imposed on Pakistan.
Please, consider that Quantification of Accumlated Destruction is a challenge in itself and requires a Substative Framework to start compilying data as @SQ8 knows far too well. However, Quantification of Destruction is imperative. Without it understanding the Consequences/Cost of TotalWar is impossible. It should be Quantified in Gold!
The Economist's estimation $200+Bln as Cost of Pak's War on Indian Terrorism in OurLand was a snapshot of that moment i.e. till that date. It failed to factor in the ensuing and subsequent costs, including impact and quantification of loss of life of bread-winner on left-behind widows and orphans... @SIPRA
It might appear dark, apathetic or insensitive...but human life is perfectly quantifiable.. just look at the insurance modelling... will rob anyone of their vague notions... not all humans are equal in quantifications... Woke or Not to Woke is irrellevant as it is fake @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ
Now the Vectors of Destruction then... (these Vectors will be explored later in detail with welcome contribution of the ThinkingHeads of Paks on PDF)
1. Identity Vector
The Idea of Pakistan is based on the Inheritence of PakCivilisation i.e. Two Nation Fact presented by the Original MuslimLeague and successfully championed by Quaid e Azam R.A. in accordance with the Vision of Allama Iqbal R.A.
Both the Great Muslims of their time.. and nemesis of FazoolMullahMafia.
The good Indians attacked this Civilisation/Identity Vector long before Pakistan came into being...
Ghandi's visit to KPK and him being stoned by OurPashtoons there is still great memory.
But lets not forget that the then KabulRegime tried to stir EthnoNationalism in OurPashtoonBelt.... and we can still see their remenants..though greatly reduced now.
PTM came and went... and a new PTM shall come and go as well. TTP is not a religious outfit but an armed variant of the PTM as we all know.
Talibans on OurFence. Reality check??
Similarly the BalochEthnoNationalism was/is financed by the good Indians and some borthers... during the Soviet times and recently during the American times... and of course, still financing them.
And there are the waderas... sain te sain.. sain da kutta vi sain.
Oh those glorious years of SindhuDesh... JaiSindh was all the rage. Money talks. Pay to Play EthnoNationalists. Just wonderful.
Even the all-to-blame-for Punjabis of NarcoTerroristLeague came up with slogans to wake up the Punjabis...jab Punjabi jab.. terri pag te lag gaya dagh. Fun never stops here.
Of course, how to forget the legendary Kalia of Londonistan. LingoFacists to add to the mix.
Now it is easy to play the Victim here. And Playing Victim shall Add Cost to Pakistan in this TotalWar. We don't have the luxury to do that.
That the good Indians wish to exploit and hire for-rent-terror-outfits or invest in political families/dynasties is FairGame as it is TotalWar.
Why wouldn't an Enemy exploit our internal fissures?
It is to be expected and all we can do is not offer Opportunities.
How halirous this is that a major Dam got undammed because some ethnofacist party member had a factory or something there... Ridiculous but true.
And why wouldn't the good Indians pay such people?
Isn't it Cost Effective for them?
Regardless of the above high level description... Paks remain Paks and the Idea of Pakistan has a Pull that is subliminal... even spiritual.
Yes, cynic has the right to see things through his/her lens. And it is valuable to have such views.
Now when we come to the Real meat of this Vector we need to Quantify the Loss to Pakistan when all the above are accumlated.
Just have a look at Karachi that should form the TrueBaseline in Quantification of Loss to Pakistan.
When we see Karachi as a Battleground ... then my dear Paks, have we won or lost?
Yes, we need to factor in the PPP's facist policies of quotaz and ChinaCutting by all the card-bearing memebers of the CriminalEnterprise. Surely, PDF has enough TTz to Quantify the Net Loss using Karachi as Baseline. Waiting for it.
And since Pakistan neither has the Resources nor do we have the inclination to affect similar courtesy to the good Indians in the Identity Vector... our Benefits have been none!
PakKashmiris are in Struggle on their own despite the sold-out IOK politicos... and Mushy proved to be 'good guy' and fenced the CeaseFireLine... it is Stupid to call it LoC.
Fleatingly one would draw attention to the glorious SecterianFunk. Loyalists of Persians and Saudis... and that is that. Not going further than this. This too needs to be quantified in terms of Loss to Pakistan.
2. Economic Vector
When OurLand came up as a map on the atals we had No Money to run the nascent PakState. The good Indians withheld OurMoney to kill our statehood in infancy, courtesy Nehru!
YoungPaks must recall that it was Paks who left their homes for OurLand gave money to treasury to run the state.
We had NOTHING. Just land. IMF is our phraand!
Yes, we have had and still do... so many challenges that running the PakState and providing BasicServices to Paks is a Huge Challenge... but again we don't have the luxury to play the Victim.
It is instructive to note that China was far poorer and hungerier back then and all the way to the early 80s. They had a National Plan and we don't. That is why China is Doing the CPEC and not us. Something to ponder about. @vi-va @Shotgunner51
True that the Two AfghanWars have costed us an arm and a leg... and true too that we had No Choice in the matter but to live with the Costs and Consequences the best way we can.
But neither the IMF nor the WorldBank Forced us to NOT have an Economic/Industrial GamePlan i.e. LongTerm Plan divided into FiveYearPlans... eating an elphant with a spoon. And we hear slogans about the ChinaModel of Development. Stupid to say the least.
Once again let us thoroughly abuse this notion. Only China can/could have ChinaDevelopmentModel. None else can.
If someone suggests so then they lack both information and knowledge about the Nature of China. Even in the last years of QingDynasty the imperical court was sending the Chinese to study the American railways. And now if they have the most miles of railtracks of highspeed railways.. it is because they are studious and goal oriented. Call it ConfucianEthics.. call it genetics... it is what it is.
Frankly, most of our loss in this Vector is our own lack of long term planning and defining OurPlace in the World. How do we percieve ourselves?
That the good Indians and Phraandz have kept us in FATF greyzone.. is totally understandable. Again why would an enemy allow you to breath??
The suggestion or oration about we cann't go to war because of poor economy is laughable at best and criminal at worst. @ps3linux
And then there are lumanaries talking about pacifism because of economic realities... Is it acceptance of the IndianOrder? If so then come out a play... why eschew... Funk!
The UglyReality is that to be truly Viable PakState needs to have $1Bln per million Paks in the Reserve. This is MinimumRequirement! And it is so bloody doable that current state of affairs, though understandable as legacy effect, is scary!
So if India is apparently winning in EconomicVector of TotalWar on Pakistan... can we blame them? All we can do now is have an EconomicPlan... choose a DevelopmentModel and stick with it. SouthEastAsia is not descended from Heavens... same brown mass as us.
We need to win this ... we have no other Choice!
3. Diplomatic Vector
60s Pakistan is Gone. The sooner we accept it the better it is for us. Pakistan then was an Economic and Industrial Power compared to our 'brotherly countries'. And that gave us Diplomatic Leverage ... of course, the alliance with the Yanks did help a bit too. But let us not forget 1962, 1965, 1971 and all the way to Kargil. Let us not forget the IndianBias in the CombinedWest.
Once again... YoungPaks need to revisit the history of the dismanteling of the Ottomans and why Paks Original Map was a no-no for the GlobalEmpire. Has anything changed in that equation?
The Rise of China is benefitial to the Chinese first and farmost. It does give us breathing space.. considering that China has used its VetoPower to shield us in the UNSC and helped us with FATF along with Turkiye and Malaysia.
But it does show us our DiplmaticStrength... lack thereof actually.
And if India has leveraged its position/existence as a power to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out in the Subcontinet for the GlobalEmpire... then can we blame them. Enemy is expected to utilise everything to its advantage.
There is NO IslamicWorld. There are countries/states which happens to bear the name muslim... but there is no such thing as IslamicWorld. Yes, there is OilRichArabWorld and then there is Mughreb i.e NorthAfrica and some African countries with muslim majority.
Muslims of SouthEastAsia are nationalists first. A Reality we need to absorb.
The outcome of the SecondAfghanWar is not there yet. It would be diplomatic blunder of highest order to conclude that India is out of Afghanistan or CentralAsia. They are in SCO and have a deal with Russia and Iran to build a corridor through Iran and CaspianSea.
The Monkey was working in Chabhar should we forget ... and Persians fashion themselves after their ancient ancestors!
Therefore, let us accept OurWeakness and Baseline OurCondition so that we can have a Clear DiplomaticBattle Plan.
In case of ArmedWar no brother or friend is coming to our aid... and everyone will side with India even when they commit WarCrimes... as in IoJK so would be in Actual TotalWar.
Starting from such point is imperative in planning WarScenarios.
Just as Reality Check: Why would China want to help us in OurWar?
4. Armed Forces Vector
Of all branches of PakArmedForces PNS' coming of Age is the most welcome sight. OurFleet is shapping up nicely. Still a long way to go to become a RealNavalPower in AfroAsianRegion...but good development all around.
In terms of ArmedConflict the Reality is we are a DefensiveForce. Yes, there are Offensive-Defence elements within OurCapabilities but we are NOT in position to wage an OffensiveWar or War of Conquest against the Enemy. It is UglyTruth. We better accept it.
SwiftRetort was magnificent display of the above. And that is that. We need to forget it and move on.
The Purpose of OurArmedForces is to Deny the good Indians from imposing IndianOrder on Pakistan.
Liberation of IoJK is a complex affair where China is the DecidingFactor. From GHQ to any analyst worth a read knows this. Political slogans are cheap and easy.
PakArmedForces are the Tip of Spear where body of the Spear is PakNation.
This is vitally important that YoungPaks understand this.
PakArmedForces is us and not some alien entity...even though none of this person's chacha, mama or dada was/is in the PakArmedForces... despite this the Ownership is claimed and cherrished.. hence, the desire/demand of Excellence from OurForces!
Till date the good Indians have FAILEd to break the Tip of OurSpear and that comes from the Idea of Pakistan and its Life and Resilience. Something to ponder upon by uniformed and un-uniformed alike!
Yes, OurArmedForces have made tons of mistakes and blunders... and many of decisions are frankly stupid... but overall we are NOT in bad shape.
Of many expectations is one that we NEED to become self-reliant and this has to be One of OurStrategicGoals...
Frankly, there needs to come a stop soon for buying complete systems from even China.. regardless, how helpful they have been or friendly terms of purchases.
It is deliberate attempt from this person to avoid the technical aspects or asset quality/ratio whence compared to the good Indians... simply, because one lacks knowledge and deems essential to take a student posture here.
Surely, we have Paks here who can offer excellent Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Strengths and Weakness of PakArmedForces.
For now we can be assured that the good Indians are not in a position to impose their Order on Pakistan. How long will it last depends on us Paks and NOT the good Indians!!!
Two Scenarios:
If the Observation is correct and there is a FrozenWar between India and Pakistan then it becomes obvious to frame WarScenarios in which such an Unfreezing can happen.
For the sake of discussion and exploration its evident that extremes positions in WarGaming take first row. Everything else is variation of these two. One doesn't have to be a general to understand this simple FACT.
Scenario 1:
Pakistan fails to course correct in Socio-Economic Vectors resulting in fragile Diplomatic Strength and less developed ArmedForces.
The Political Families further destablise OurLand and demand that Pakistan become a Confederation which essentially Pakistan has become since the 18th Amendment. Having no Financial stake in Pakistan the CompradorElite starts bagging the money.
No MarshalLaw can be imposed neither there is a clear PoliticalAthourity to affect an National Emergency.
Also, the CombinedWest has imposed massive SanctionsRegime as Punishment for Pakistan joining fully the BRI. HyperInflation and all that jazz.
India does a FalseFlag and blames it on Pakistan. The CombinedWest already primed to the 'defanging' of Pakistan... starts a media campaign.
NATO moblises all its naval strength in the AfroAsianOcean with the USN in the lead... threatening with NuclearStrikes if PakArmedForces were to use StrategicAssets. Green signal to India to move in.
This time, however, India doesn't amass troops on the border but goes for DecapitationStrike with Brahmos and the lot. The Indian strike is so massive that it not only destroys military instillations but also the civilian i.e. State Infrastructure. The goal being destroying the Functioning of the PakState on every level.
India doesn't move in to capture territory. But keeps the pressure for the disintegration of Pakistan into smaller units. The good old BloodBorder dreams!
Scenario 2:
Pakistan has course corrected and has built both the civilian and military strength. Also, Pakistan possesses ICBMs and has strategic assets above 200 with varrying yields.
The CriminalEnterprise is defanged and made impotent. A new, PanPakistan, political force has matured and enjoys human resources of professional quality to manage the economy and industerialisation. Overall Socio-Economic Indicators are condusive for Pakistan to be a Factor in the ThirdActorDynamics of the ME and Capabilites of Deterence in AfroAsianOceanRegion.
In this Scenario Pakistan does the same as India but only focusing on the BufferZone Destruction i.e. areas bordering Pakistan/HindiBelt and Bombay.
After the First Massive Strike Pakistan is already positioned for the SecondStrike with strategic assets primed and ready.
Pakistan pervails without massive capturing of IndianTerritory. The goal of destroying economic and military capabilities is achieved. IoJK is liberated.
Pakistan does incur damages too but nothing fatal.
The Strategic Objective of Creating BufferZone states is achieved with Sikhs given a choice of freedom.
In both senarios Pakistan depends on its own Zoray e Bazoo and neither on brothers nor on friends.
The outcomes of both scenarios will determine which Order pervails in the subcontinent and another war doesn't happen for a long long time.
Its instructive to note that Pakistan CanNOT afford to loose the TotalWar. Simply because if we loose we cease to exist. Both Afghanistan and Persia will have their pound of flesh from our body in case of defeat.
Pakistan is Tounge Leaving among Teeth for the past 75 years.
Our StrategicGoal has to be to change this equation to our benefit.
Mangus
After Thoughts:
It is quite true that the Vectors are not fully detailed and are generic. However, that is the intention to start a discussion. It is also true that the TwoScenarios appear to be too simplistic and don't involve the overall GlobalStruggle in the MulitpolarDynamics.
This is necessary to StressTest Pakistan's Ability to Pervail. Again we do NOT have the luxury to loose a war. India can loose all the BufferZone and still remain functional as a state. We can not.
Furthermore, one is fully aware that the Vectors of War are lightly touched and are more like place holders at first sight. It is understood that the each Vector has its Siblings and all have Qualities... and each Quality have its Atributes and each Atribute has different Aspects.
Modelling a TotalWar is long and expansive excercise. Hopefully, thinkers on PDF will contribute and remdy this.
Drawing Conclusions already is a great temptation but one should avoid it in the early stages of WarGaming and let the Scenario play out first.
It is Clear as PakSun what Pakistan needs to do.
@jaibi @The Eagle dear Paks, kindly, let this thread remain in this section... given the subject matter one expects it to die a quick death! Thankyou!!!
