To curb India's clout, Pak eyes Afghan role

[TechLahore]

With every passing day more confirmation of this phenomenon. Indian influence in Afghanistan will likely not withstand the changes for which the writing is on the wall...



To curb India's clout, Pak eyes Afghan role
Jane Perlez, NYT News Service, 11 February 2010, 01:01am IST

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has told the US it wants a central role in resolving the Afghan war and has offered to mediate with Taliban factions who use its territory and have long served as its allies, American and Pakistani officials said.

The offer, aimed at preserving Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan once the Americans leave, could both help and hurt American interests as Washington debates reconciling with the Taliban.

Pakistan's army chief, Gen Ashfaq Kayani, made clear Pakistan's willingness to mediate at a meeting late last month at Nato headquarters with top American military officials, a senior American military official familiar with the meeting said.

It is a departure from Pakistan's previous reluctance to approach the Taliban."The Pakistanis want to be part of discussions that could involve reconciliation," the official, who requested anonymity, said.

Pakistani officials familiar with General Kayani's thinking said that even as the US adds troops to Afghanistan, he has determined that the Americans are looking for a fast exit. The impression, they said, was reinforced by President Barack Obama's scant mention of the war in his State of the Union address.

What the Pakistanis can offer is their influence over the Taliban network of Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani, whose forces American commanders say are the most lethal battling American and Nato soldiers in Afghanistan.

In return for trying to rein in the Haqqanis, Pakistan will be looking for a friendly Afghanistan and for ways to stem the growing Indian presence there, Pakistani and US officials said.

 

[SMC]

The india-afghan honeymoon is temporary. Indians will be disappointed within a year or two when they are kicked out of Afghanistan.

 

[f**p**]

where is the money for pakistan to run show in afghan?

India will keep pakistan busy for long time with its domestic freedom struggle for pretty long period.

 

[TechLahore]

nice correlation but
lol we have better brains on this side

Let's not get ridiculous please. There is no need to derail this thread. The article stands on its own and points to reality... India is getting sidelined in Afghanistan. The $1.5B is gone, the consulates and the activities therein are at risk and the northern alliance cronies in Kabul have another thing coming.

"Better brains" would have understood that betting on the horse you bet on could not possibly have resulted in a victory. But oh well. The next couple of years will provide plenty of action and adventure for your "better brains" to deal with. Good luck with that.

 

[TechLahore]

Unfortunetly Afghan need good road, food. They don't need pakistan brain. They had enough of it(taliban).

I wish pakistan uses its brain on constractive work which help poor pakistan

Mods please ban this guy and delete his account. His nick cannot be allowed on this forum.

 

[masijames]

Hey man, whats wrong with you?

i mean seriously dude this is pakistani fourm you need to remove your nick name that u have its F**I how is that sound i mean u know what i m talking about ya so change your nick name pretty girl dont hate to much of beautiful pakistan since you dont like her existent

 

[HAIDER]

Indian can't match the drug money in Afghanistan and all routes pass through Pakistan. Its dirty war and India is naive in the whole scenario. Plus Saudis are not ready to accept any role of India in Afghanistan.

 

[ramu]

With every passing day more confirmation of this phenomenon. Indian influence in Afghanistan will likely not withstand the changes for which the writing is on the wall...

To curb India's clout, Pak eyes Afghan role
Jane Perlez, NYT News Service, 11 February 2010, 01:01am IST

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has told the US it wants a central role in resolving the Afghan war and has offered to mediate with Taliban factions who use its territory and have long served as its allies, American and Pakistani officials said.

The offer, aimed at preserving Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan once the Americans leave, could both help and hurt American interests as Washington debates reconciling with the Taliban.

Pakistan's army chief, Gen Ashfaq Kayani, made clear Pakistan's willingness to mediate at a meeting late last month at Nato headquarters with top American military officials, a senior American military official familiar with the meeting said.

It is a departure from Pakistan's previous reluctance to approach the Taliban."The Pakistanis want to be part of discussions that could involve reconciliation," the official, who requested anonymity, said.

I can understand the unrest in Pakistan's establishment if India has a strong presence in Afghan. But leave wishful thinking aside (Indian as well) and consider the possible options for Afghan (not for Pakistan).

The President of Afghan in his speech in London with the Prime minister of England stressed the need for rebuilding Afghan. His focus was to take control of the security apparatus by doubling the police and army numbers.

Afghan people are tired of war and want to live a peaceful life and rightly so. Some of the Afghan people have started tasting the city life that we as Indians and Pakistanis are accustomed to. The Taliban today has a considerable support base both in Pakistan and in Afghanistan. However, the outdated, twisted ideology of sharia law and oppression of women will find few takers as the people come out of poverty and ignorance.

Taliban can have a considerable influence on Afghan for a long time to come but the possibility of Taliban ruling Afghan is negligible. I have good reason why. The NATO forces have not spent billions of dollars on the war on terror just to let things slip and go back to square one. US will have a long but stern handle on Afghan politics for decades to come and this is not good news for the Taliban. Even domestic elections in America is influenced by events in Afghan and lets not forget that we have other countries like UK which has considerable investment at stake.

Lets consider the situation in which Taliban has a role in Afghan but is not influential enough. Taliban will continue to create trouble for the ruling group but with the internal security set for 100% reinforcement, we can expect a battle at hand.

Pakistan is present at a position of strength locking Afghan from India and the sea routes. The geographic position of Pakistan is too important for Afghan to ignore. Oil lines have to go through Pakistan and Afghan will rely on Pakistan for this. Pakistan will be able to play its cards to get things done but it should be careful not to push too hard. Pakistan should and must use this opportunity to mediate to gain ground.

Iran can provide Afghan what it wants in terms of sea access, technology, ... This will reduce the influence of Pakistan as the roads from Afghan can now reach the ports in Iran. Iran recently announced that it is a nuclear state and Afghan wants to ally with a state that it thinks will help in all spheres. Again Iran has its limits in terms of its influence because of US.

India wants a partnership with Afghan as much as Afghan wants a partnership with India. The president of Afghan studied in India and understands the economic incentives he can get given that he has to hire 140,000 security personnel. India has the advantage of local population support for the development work done in the past few years which can at times be the critical difference in the choice of partners. Trade is an important way to bridge people and so are the Indian channels and Bollywood.

Pakistan will need considerable leverage and wealth to shut India out of the equation. Mediation is a transient issue and will not shape the politics of the decade. India will lose a billion dollars if thrown out of Afghan but Pakistan has a lot to lose and Afghan has a lot to gain if India stays put.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Full NYT article here:

Pakistan Is Said to Pursue Role in U.S.-Afghan Talks - NYTimes.com

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The india-afghan honeymoon is temporary. Indians will be disappointed within a year or two when they are kicked out of Afghanistan.

I don't think that is necessarily what Pakistan wants. You are approaching the issue from a 'zero sum' stand point. Pakistani officials have said on the record that they appreciate Indian investment in reconstruction in Afghanistan, and that India would have a major role to play in that respect.

Remember that having an Afghan government that exists peacefully with Pakistan and respects our borders and sovereignty is only one aspect of Pakistan's 'strategic depth'.

We also desire an Afghanistan that is stable and prosperous, because in the absence of stability and prosperity, Afghanistan will continue to be a haven for criminals, drugs and illegal weapons that will impact Pakistan. Plus the refugees who escape the lawlessness of such an Afghanistan that Pakistan will have to deal with.

India, through her economic investment, has a role to play in terms of helping Afghans find economic opportunities through employment in India funded projects, and Pakistan has no reason to begrudge that. I would in fact say that the Indian commitment to invest up to $1.2 billion pales in comparison to what she is capable of, given that Pakistan has already invested up to $500 million in Afghan reconstruction (not just committed), despite the disparity in economic size between the two nations.

I would argue that the Afghan's, in being reluctant to accept Pakistani assistance in security training, are in fact solidifying the impression that they wish to play the role of antagonist to Pakistan. I was under the impression that training Afghan security forces was one of the major goals for the ISAF and GoA. Training the required amount of security forces is deemed a huge task, both in terms of time and resources, so the hesitance to accept the Pakistani offer does not reflect well on Afghan intentions.

IMO, that is really what Pakistan is looking to change through the US - getting the Afghans to cooperate more with Pakistan, especially in terms of building Pak-Afghan military and intelligence relationships.

Unless the Afghans think that every one of their soldiers trained by Pakistan is going to be brainwashed by us (which reflects very poorly on their citizens, and if I may interject, the same applies to those Pakistanis suspicious of US training programs for Pakistani security forces), there is little to lose, and a lot to be gained, by establishing such relationships.

 

[death]

india is helping afganistan as other nation are doing

 

[SMC]

I have no problems with indians being in Afghanistan, as long as they are there for peaceful purposes. Their main interests there are not peaceful. They are heavily supporting insurgency across Pakistan - TTP, Baloch insurgents, etc. This is to divert attention from eastern border and possibly denuclearize Pakistan. If indian state can stop supporting mass terrorism, I really couldn't care less what they do in Afghanistan.

 

[death]

I have no problems with indians being in Afghanistan, as long as they are there for peaceful purposes. Their main interests there are not peaceful. They are heavily supporting insurgency across Pakistan - TTP, Baloch insurgents, etc. This is to divert attention from eastern border and possibly denuclearize Pakistan. If indian state can stop supporting mass terrorism, I really couldn't care less what they do in Afghanistan.

well sir what are you doing from last of years in kashmir

well we are helping afganistan

 

[S-2]

"Unless the Afghans think that every one of their soldiers trained by Pakistan is going to be brainwashed by us (which reflects very poorly on their citizens, and if I may interject, the same applies to those Pakistanis suspicious of US training programs for Pakistani security forces), there is little to lose, and a lot to be gained, by establishing such relationships."

A beautifully reasoned reply until here. Even here, though, there's no cause that prevents Pakistan, ISAF, and Afghanistan from coming to an agreement that mitigates those concerns-unreasonable in your view or not. Frankly, it's important that Pakistan acknowledge the climate of distrust which exists and stands to prevent the closer relationship needed to bridge the gap of misunderstanding.

Finally, as a technical matter, I've been intrigued by the difficulties America has faced in reconciling training programs between various entitities involved in raising forth Afghan security forces and the overarching doctrinal publishing necessary to provide appropriate guidance at all command levels of the Afghan military. This, of course, is exacerbated by the crippling levels of literacy currently prevailing among Afghan soldiers and policemen.

There's lots of room for assistance. How Pakistan approaches offering such and the care exhibited by recognizing the realities of distrust there now will go far to determining what degree of success is achieved.

Thanks.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I have no problems with indians being in Afghanistan, as long as they are there for peaceful purposes. Their main interests there are not peaceful. They are heavily supporting insurgency across Pakistan - TTP, Baloch insurgents, etc. This is to divert attention from eastern border and possibly denuclearize Pakistan. If indians state can stop supporting mass terrorism, I really couldn't care less what they do in Afghanistan.

I agree, and how does one ensure that the Indians do not use Afghanistan as a launching pad for clandestine operations in Pakistan?

Either you boot them out completely by having a faction completely loyal to you take over - ala the proxy war between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance fought post Soviet Withdrawal - or you build up enough of a relationship with the Afghan government that ensures that the Afghans will not allow the Indians to run clandestine operations in Pakistan from Afghan soil.

If the reports of Pakistan offering to play a mediating role in rapprochement between the Taliban are true, and the attempt will be to get the major Taliban groups to renounce violence and participate in the Afghan political process in some form, then Pakistan would appear to be looking to build relationships with the GoA both through collaborative programs in training Afghan security forces and attempting to integrate Taliban leaders perceived as 'loyal' to Pakistan into the Afghan government.