New Delhi: Modi's three-day maiden trip to China as prime minister, between May 14th to 16th, within a year of him being sworn, is indicative of the affinity and ties he has nurtured, particularly with the political class in that country, for quite a long time now.
As chief minister, when most countries treated him as a persona non-grata for his alleged role in the Gujarat riots in 2002, China had laid down a red carpet welcome for him. Clearly, Modi hasn't forgotten the heavy courting by the Chinese. After all, in the last 12 years, an Indian prime minister had visited China just thrice (Vajpayee in 2003 and Dr. Singh in 2008 and 2013) and in his avataar as Gujarat CM, Narendra Modi by himself, had equalled the number of visits! The Chinese not only endorsed the Gujarat Model but were instrumental in building up Modi's image as a global figure at a time when the US government denied him a visa! The Chinese leadership studied Modi closely and invested their might behind him in the hope that someday, as leader of a democratic India, they could use him as a strategic pawn on their global chessboard. Modi should be extremely weary and circumspect of those harbouring such intentions.
In China, the current ruling elite, which had essentially hatched the plan of cultivating ties with Modi the CM, while they themselves were second rung leaders, today see him as one of their own - 'a leader who they can do business with.' During the election campaign, Modi expressed admiration for the Chinese model and prescribed that India should replicate it! Modi's 'Make in India' plan to boost manufacturing reveals where he draws his inspiration from. His subsequent moves that aim at centralizing decision making powers with the PMO, seems to be yet another import from authoritarian China.
Time for Statesman Modi to replace Showman Modi in China
As chief minister, when most countries treated him as a persona non-grata for his alleged role in the Gujarat riots in 2002, China had laid down a red carpet welcome for him.
Days before his visit to China, Modi has made a debut on the Chinese social media platform Weibo - a cross between Twitter and Facebook! Given Modi's own track record on censorship and curtailment of freedoms- his government advocating the continuation of section 66A of the IT Act (struck down by the Supreme Court), banning the BBC documentary film on Nirbhaya, imposing restrictions on environmental activists, banning beef, calling the free media as 'bazaru' , nobody was expecting the otherwise Twitter-happy PM to discuss the issue of internet censorship with China which blocks facebook, twitter and other websites! But it does show a willingness on the part of Modi to speak in Chinese whispers, if that's what the dragon orders!
But has this chronic fixation with China really paid off? Not really. The images of Modi's 'swing diplomacy' with Chinese President Xi Jinping along the Sabarmati river front in September 2014, even amidst the Chinese troops' brazen incursion into Demchok and Chumar in Ladakh, are still etched in our memories. Despite all the tough talking by Modi while he was in opposition, the reality is that his government does not even acknowledge that the Chinese troops made incursions into Indian territory while answering a question on the subject in our own Parliament on 27th February 2015!
Faced with an aggressive China, the Manmohan Singh led UPA government had cleared construction of 73 strategic roads along the Indo-China border. A Mountain Strike Corps- XVII Corps, specially designed to fight in the mountainous Indo-China border has also been raised. But due to the slow speed of construction of these roads, the hope of a quick reaction time to counter Chinese hostility is becoming increasingly distant and given the fact that PLA troops have the ability to reach the border in 48 hours and have several airfields in Tibet too this does not bode well.
What would be expected of PM Modi on this trip to China is that he holds his ground on the border related issues and asserts India's right to defend its territory. There have been repeated provocations by the Chinese side through incursions and cartographic depictions, where Arunachal Pradesh is shown as a part of Chinese territory! In fact, as soon as Modi logged on to Weibo he was greeted with messages of how Arunachal Pradesh which is referred to as 'South Tibet' in China belonged to them! Modi government's meek 'meows' before 'the dragon' hardly give a sense of the lion-hearted approach Modi promised he would be adopting with the Chinese.
While China continues to dump cheaply priced products that flood the Indian markets, the trade deficit, in favour of China, has now crossed an all time high of USD 37.85 billion up from USD 29 billion! While the Chinese pledged a 20 billion dollar investment over the next five years and the setting up of industrial parks, there has been no progress on the ground on any of the agreements signed between Modi and Xi in September 2014. There has been little to show on the joint smart city project to be undertaken in India by China. Chinese investors are still weary of the investment climate under their friend Modi.
Modi's primary focus will have to be the domestic economy. We are a long way away from catching up with China. Assuming that India grows at an annual growth rate of 9 percent for the next 15 years, India's GDP will be nearly $8 trillion in 2030. China's GDP, at an annual estimated growth rate of six percent, would by then have leapt to around $24 trillion. The gap between India's and China's economies would have closed from today's ratio of 5:1 to 3:1 but apart from catching a few headlines over having a faster growth rate, China will still be much ahead of us as an economic power by 2030.
China's advantage over India in the past few decades has been its human capital. Better literacy rates, better health care and women's participation in workforce. All these helped in catalysing China's faster growth rates at an average of 10% per annum for 30years between 1980-2010. Modi's economic model has to be one that focuses on jobs and better investment in developing human resources. It cannot be one driven by prosperity of a few handful of people amidst an ocean of poverty, that ends up widening disparities.
On the military and strategic front, China has significantly increased its defence budget at USD 136.3 billion which is more than three times that of India at USD 38.2 billion! China has, in addition to this, begun exporting arms to Pakistan, making it its top importer. A long discussed plan to sell eight Chinese submarines to Pakistan is now on the cards. Just recently, the China-Pakistan friendship has become USD 46 billion stronger with a network of roads, railways and energy projects being planned under a Pakistan-China Economic corridor. Recent intelligence reports also suggest that China's People's Liberation Army is not only training Pakistani soldiers close to the border but also helping them build state of the art bunkers from where Indian soldiers can be targeted and is providing technical expertise to the Pak Army that can be detrimental to our long term interests.
India and China are both seen as strategic rivals - both have fast growing economies that are driven by a billion plus populations on either side, both aspire to assert themselves as a dominant power in Asia and the world and both are engaged in careful geo-political manoeuvring to increase their influence. Modi must realise that gratefulness and personal affinity towards the Chinese leadership will not achieve anything for India. Co-operation is one thing, capitulation is quite another.
Most of PM Modi's 16 foreign trips in his first year of office have been oriented and centred around his domestic positioning. Nothing substantial has emerged from them if you minus the elaborate light and sound show put on display whilst on foreign soil be it at Madison Square Garden or at Allphones Arena. It must be borne in mind that photo-ops cannot replace the art of skilful diplomacy. This time, let's hope that showman Modi gives way to statesman Modi, who sits across the table with the Chinese leadership and asserts our positions strongly rather than sitting on a swing that the Chinese control.
(Shehzad Poonawalla is a Congress supporter and lawyer. Views expressed here are his personal and not that of CNN-IBN/IBNLIVE)
Time for Statesman Modi to replace Showman Modi in China - IBNLive
As chief minister, when most countries treated him as a persona non-grata for his alleged role in the Gujarat riots in 2002, China had laid down a red carpet welcome for him. Clearly, Modi hasn't forgotten the heavy courting by the Chinese. After all, in the last 12 years, an Indian prime minister had visited China just thrice (Vajpayee in 2003 and Dr. Singh in 2008 and 2013) and in his avataar as Gujarat CM, Narendra Modi by himself, had equalled the number of visits! The Chinese not only endorsed the Gujarat Model but were instrumental in building up Modi's image as a global figure at a time when the US government denied him a visa! The Chinese leadership studied Modi closely and invested their might behind him in the hope that someday, as leader of a democratic India, they could use him as a strategic pawn on their global chessboard. Modi should be extremely weary and circumspect of those harbouring such intentions.
In China, the current ruling elite, which had essentially hatched the plan of cultivating ties with Modi the CM, while they themselves were second rung leaders, today see him as one of their own - 'a leader who they can do business with.' During the election campaign, Modi expressed admiration for the Chinese model and prescribed that India should replicate it! Modi's 'Make in India' plan to boost manufacturing reveals where he draws his inspiration from. His subsequent moves that aim at centralizing decision making powers with the PMO, seems to be yet another import from authoritarian China.
Time for Statesman Modi to replace Showman Modi in China
As chief minister, when most countries treated him as a persona non-grata for his alleged role in the Gujarat riots in 2002, China had laid down a red carpet welcome for him.
Days before his visit to China, Modi has made a debut on the Chinese social media platform Weibo - a cross between Twitter and Facebook! Given Modi's own track record on censorship and curtailment of freedoms- his government advocating the continuation of section 66A of the IT Act (struck down by the Supreme Court), banning the BBC documentary film on Nirbhaya, imposing restrictions on environmental activists, banning beef, calling the free media as 'bazaru' , nobody was expecting the otherwise Twitter-happy PM to discuss the issue of internet censorship with China which blocks facebook, twitter and other websites! But it does show a willingness on the part of Modi to speak in Chinese whispers, if that's what the dragon orders!
But has this chronic fixation with China really paid off? Not really. The images of Modi's 'swing diplomacy' with Chinese President Xi Jinping along the Sabarmati river front in September 2014, even amidst the Chinese troops' brazen incursion into Demchok and Chumar in Ladakh, are still etched in our memories. Despite all the tough talking by Modi while he was in opposition, the reality is that his government does not even acknowledge that the Chinese troops made incursions into Indian territory while answering a question on the subject in our own Parliament on 27th February 2015!
Faced with an aggressive China, the Manmohan Singh led UPA government had cleared construction of 73 strategic roads along the Indo-China border. A Mountain Strike Corps- XVII Corps, specially designed to fight in the mountainous Indo-China border has also been raised. But due to the slow speed of construction of these roads, the hope of a quick reaction time to counter Chinese hostility is becoming increasingly distant and given the fact that PLA troops have the ability to reach the border in 48 hours and have several airfields in Tibet too this does not bode well.
What would be expected of PM Modi on this trip to China is that he holds his ground on the border related issues and asserts India's right to defend its territory. There have been repeated provocations by the Chinese side through incursions and cartographic depictions, where Arunachal Pradesh is shown as a part of Chinese territory! In fact, as soon as Modi logged on to Weibo he was greeted with messages of how Arunachal Pradesh which is referred to as 'South Tibet' in China belonged to them! Modi government's meek 'meows' before 'the dragon' hardly give a sense of the lion-hearted approach Modi promised he would be adopting with the Chinese.
While China continues to dump cheaply priced products that flood the Indian markets, the trade deficit, in favour of China, has now crossed an all time high of USD 37.85 billion up from USD 29 billion! While the Chinese pledged a 20 billion dollar investment over the next five years and the setting up of industrial parks, there has been no progress on the ground on any of the agreements signed between Modi and Xi in September 2014. There has been little to show on the joint smart city project to be undertaken in India by China. Chinese investors are still weary of the investment climate under their friend Modi.
Modi's primary focus will have to be the domestic economy. We are a long way away from catching up with China. Assuming that India grows at an annual growth rate of 9 percent for the next 15 years, India's GDP will be nearly $8 trillion in 2030. China's GDP, at an annual estimated growth rate of six percent, would by then have leapt to around $24 trillion. The gap between India's and China's economies would have closed from today's ratio of 5:1 to 3:1 but apart from catching a few headlines over having a faster growth rate, China will still be much ahead of us as an economic power by 2030.
China's advantage over India in the past few decades has been its human capital. Better literacy rates, better health care and women's participation in workforce. All these helped in catalysing China's faster growth rates at an average of 10% per annum for 30years between 1980-2010. Modi's economic model has to be one that focuses on jobs and better investment in developing human resources. It cannot be one driven by prosperity of a few handful of people amidst an ocean of poverty, that ends up widening disparities.
On the military and strategic front, China has significantly increased its defence budget at USD 136.3 billion which is more than three times that of India at USD 38.2 billion! China has, in addition to this, begun exporting arms to Pakistan, making it its top importer. A long discussed plan to sell eight Chinese submarines to Pakistan is now on the cards. Just recently, the China-Pakistan friendship has become USD 46 billion stronger with a network of roads, railways and energy projects being planned under a Pakistan-China Economic corridor. Recent intelligence reports also suggest that China's People's Liberation Army is not only training Pakistani soldiers close to the border but also helping them build state of the art bunkers from where Indian soldiers can be targeted and is providing technical expertise to the Pak Army that can be detrimental to our long term interests.
India and China are both seen as strategic rivals - both have fast growing economies that are driven by a billion plus populations on either side, both aspire to assert themselves as a dominant power in Asia and the world and both are engaged in careful geo-political manoeuvring to increase their influence. Modi must realise that gratefulness and personal affinity towards the Chinese leadership will not achieve anything for India. Co-operation is one thing, capitulation is quite another.
Most of PM Modi's 16 foreign trips in his first year of office have been oriented and centred around his domestic positioning. Nothing substantial has emerged from them if you minus the elaborate light and sound show put on display whilst on foreign soil be it at Madison Square Garden or at Allphones Arena. It must be borne in mind that photo-ops cannot replace the art of skilful diplomacy. This time, let's hope that showman Modi gives way to statesman Modi, who sits across the table with the Chinese leadership and asserts our positions strongly rather than sitting on a swing that the Chinese control.
(Shehzad Poonawalla is a Congress supporter and lawyer. Views expressed here are his personal and not that of CNN-IBN/IBNLIVE)
Time for Statesman Modi to replace Showman Modi in China - IBNLive
