Three Waves of Industrialization

[Yizhi]

"Flying-Geese Model"

....the English translation is hilarious.

5th wave "???": From 2020's China to ????

Vietnam, BD, Southeast Asia? or India?
still too many variables and competitors. political situation in these countries or regions differs and changes all the time. and the development in 3D and robotics could bring it back to US. hard to tell now.

 

[TaiShang]

....the English translation is hilarious.

Vietnam, BD, Southeast Asia? or India?
still too many variables and competitors. political situation in these countries or regions differs and changes all the time. and the development in 3D and robotics could bring it back to US. hard to tell now.

I would say, ASEAN. Forget India, because the country is way too inefficient and risky for investment.

 

[Martian2]

Taiwan is special for two reasons.

1. Taiwan has a cumulative 137,867 USPTO patents (which makes Taiwan the third-highest foreign USPTO patent holder after Japan and Germany). Taiwan is a technological powerhouse. In comparison, Hong Kong is merely a financial center.

Citation: Patents By Country, State, and Year - All Patent Types (December 2013)

2. Taiwan is responsible for 60% of Chin'a high-tech exports. This was still true in 2012.

2005 Citation: MAS

(Page ii, first paragraph under Executive Summary): "Taiwanese electronics companies now carry out roughly a third of their production in China, and collectively account for around 60% of China's total information technology exports."

2012 Citation: Why Taiwan Is Asia’s Hidden Tech Mecca | Uncommon Wisdom Daily

"More than 60% of Chinese technology exports are made by Taiwanese companies. What that means is that most of the technology profits coming from anything stamped with 'Made in China' are probably going to Taiwan."
----------

Many of Taiwan's technologies have migrated to China. Notebook computers are now produced exclusively on the mainland. Another example is that China's SMIC is comprised of ex-TSMC employees. It is common for mainland Chinese companies to hire Taiwanese experts. If someone asks, I will use cutting-edge LED technology or specialty chemicals (citation from New York Times) as an example.

Taiwan is the third country in the world to build a sub-micron machine tool (after Japan and Germany). The last citation that I have from 2012 shows China can build a 3-micron machine tool. Taiwan built its first machine tool in 1954. It is reasonable to believe that Taiwanese machine-tool technology has migrated to China. Outside of the West, only Taiwan and China build CNC five-axis machine tools. Taiwan got there first. The West most certainly would not help China to build advanced CNC five-axis machine tools. Given the rapid rise of Chinese CNC five-axis machine tool manufacturers, a reasonable inference is Taiwanese help. Russia still can't build its own indigenous CNC five-axis machine tools. China leapt past Russia with Taiwanese technology transfer.

Taiwan's cumulative USPTO patents are clearly massive in terms of quantity. However, we have to examine the quality of the Taiwanese patents. This can be done indirectly and easily by mentioning ten large leading Taiwanese companies in diverse industries.

1. TSMC (or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world leader in the foundry business with 50% worldwide market share. TSMC logic chip technology is currently being mass produced at a leading-edge 20nm.

2. Mediatek is a leading multi-billion dollar designer of systems-on-chip (SOC) for smartphones and tablets.

3. Quanta and Compal produce 80-90% of the world's notebook computers with Taiwanese patents.

4. AU Optronics is a leading LCD manufacturer. AU Optronics won a monstrous patent lawsuit against South Korea's LG where a U.S. Federal District Court ruled that LG infringed on four key AU Optronics patents.

5. Epistar is a leading LED manufacturer with 1,000 LED patents.

6. Formosa Plastics is a leading manufacturer of specialty chemicals.

7. Taiwan is the world's fourth-largest machine tool exporter and has built a sub-micron CNC machine tool.

8. "Delta Electronics, Inc. (Chinese: 台達電子工業股份有限公司), founded in 1971, is the world's largest provider of switching power supplies and DC brushless fans,[1] as well as a major source for power management solutions, components, visual displays, industrial automation, networking products, and renewable energy solutions. Delta Group has sales offices worldwide and manufacturing plants in Taiwan, China, Thailand, Mexico, India and Europe."

9. "In Taiwan, which has the second-largest chip-design industry after the U.S., Novatek is a standout. Chairman Ho Tai-shung has turned it from a little spinoff of United Microelectronics (the Taiwanese chipmaker that is the world's second-largest foundry, behind only neighbor and rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) into a chip-design powerhouse. Novatek, based in Taiwan's premier high-tech zone, the Hsinchu science park, is the island's dominant provider of TFT-LCD driver and controller chips, key components in the liquid crystal displays used in PC monitors and TV screens." (from BusinessWeek)

10. "Largan is the world’s biggest designer and manufacturer of imaging lens products used in mobile devices." (from Bloomberg News)

 

[Aepsilons]

@TaiShang @Nihonjin1051 @Martian2

Yes those are facts as you both mentioned. Taking that into account, about Martian2's 3 waves of industrialization, my view is as below:

1st wave "Industrial revolution": Industrial revolution started in GB around 1800, spread over to W-Europe, US and Japan within a few decades.

2nd wave "Re-build": Post WWII, since 1945, US helped war-devastated W-Europe and Japan to re-industrialize.

3rd wave "Flying-Geese Paradigm": By 1960's Japan set the role model for 4 East Asian dragons to industrialize

4th wave "Hans": From 1980's Taiwan, HK and overseas Chinese helped sparked off industrialization in China.

5th wave "???": From 2020's China to ????​

Excellent @Shotgunner51 ! This is quite accurate and I concur!

 

[Shotgunner51]

Taiwan is special for two reasons.

1. Taiwan has a cumulative 137,867 USPTO patents (which makes Taiwan the third-highest foreign USPTO patent holder after Japan and Germany). Taiwan is a technological powerhouse. In comparison, Hong Kong is merely a financial center.

Citation: Patents By Country, State, and Year - All Patent Types (December 2013)

2. Taiwan is responsible for 60% of Chin'a high-tech exports. This was still true in 2012.

2005 Citation: MAS

(Page ii, first paragraph under Executive Summary): "Taiwanese electronics companies now carry out roughly a third of their production in China, and collectively account for around 60% of China's total information technology exports."

2012 Citation: Why Taiwan Is Asia’s Hidden Tech Mecca | Uncommon Wisdom Daily

"More than 60% of Chinese technology exports are made by Taiwanese companies. What that means is that most of the technology profits coming from anything stamped with 'Made in China' are probably going to Taiwan."
----------

Many of Taiwan's technologies have migrated to China. Notebook computers are now produced exclusively on the mainland. Another example is that China's SMIC is comprised of ex-TSMC employees. It is common for mainland Chinese companies to hire Taiwanese experts. If someone asks, I will use cutting-edge LED technology or specialty chemicals (citation from New York Times) as an example.

Taiwan is the third country in the world to build a sub-micron machine tool (after Japan and Germany). The last citation that I have from 2012 shows China can build a 3-micron machine tool. Taiwan built its first machine tool in 1954. It is reasonable to believe that Taiwanese machine-tool technology has migrated to China. Outside of the West, only Taiwan and China build CNC five-axis machine tools. Taiwan got there first. The West most certainly would not help China to build advanced CNC five-axis machine tools. Given the rapid rise of Chinese CNC five-axis machine tool manufacturers, a reasonable inference is Taiwanese help. Russia still can't build its own indigenous CNC five-axis machine tools. China leapt past Russia with Taiwanese technology transfer.

Taiwan's cumulative USPTO patents are clearly massive in terms of quantity. However, we have to examine the quality of the Taiwanese patents. This can be done indirectly and easily by mentioning ten large leading Taiwanese companies in diverse industries.

1. TSMC (or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world leader in the foundry business with 50% worldwide market share. TSMC logic chip technology is currently being mass produced at a leading-edge 20nm.

2. Mediatek is a leading multi-billion dollar designer of systems-on-chip (SOC) for smartphones and tablets.

3. Quanta and Compal produce 80-90% of the world's notebook computers with Taiwanese patents.

4. AU Optronics is a leading LCD manufacturer. AU Optronics won a monstrous patent lawsuit against South Korea's LG where a U.S. Federal District Court ruled that LG infringed on four key AU Optronics patents.

5. Epistar is a leading LED manufacturer with 1,000 LED patents.

6. Formosa Plastics is a leading manufacturer of specialty chemicals.

7. Taiwan is the world's fourth-largest machine tool exporter and has built a sub-micron CNC machine tool.

8. "Delta Electronics, Inc. (Chinese: 台達電子工業股份有限公司), founded in 1971, is the world's largest provider of switching power supplies and DC brushless fans,[1] as well as a major source for power management solutions, components, visual displays, industrial automation, networking products, and renewable energy solutions. Delta Group has sales offices worldwide and manufacturing plants in Taiwan, China, Thailand, Mexico, India and Europe."

9. "In Taiwan, which has the second-largest chip-design industry after the U.S., Novatek is a standout. Chairman Ho Tai-shung has turned it from a little spinoff of United Microelectronics (the Taiwanese chipmaker that is the world's second-largest foundry, behind only neighbor and rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) into a chip-design powerhouse. Novatek, based in Taiwan's premier high-tech zone, the Hsinchu science park, is the island's dominant provider of TFT-LCD driver and controller chips, key components in the liquid crystal displays used in PC monitors and TV screens." (from BusinessWeek)

10. "Largan is the world’s biggest designer and manufacturer of imaging lens products used in mobile devices." (from Bloomberg News)

Absolutely true, Taiwan is a hidden tech mecca, but it cannot hide its wealthiness being among the top of the world.

Top 10 Weathiest Nations of the World

....the English translation is hilarious.

Vietnam, BD, Southeast Asia? or India?
still too many variables and competitors. political situation in these countries or regions differs and changes all the time. and the development in 3D and robotics could bring it back to US. hard to tell now.

Yeah I know Flying-Geese Paradigm (雁行模式) seems awkward translation ...

The next wave is a big question mark. If we talk about the "revival of silk road". i.e. Beijing-Moscow-Berlin and Beijing-Islamabad-Tehran-Cairo, then it's like talking about the future Eurasian bloc, an expansion from SCO.

If we talk about "maritime silk road", then it is like China - SCS - IOR - Arabian Sea - Mediterranean - Africa.

Or both? ("一带一路").

Excellent @Shotgunner51 ! This is quite accurate and I concur!

Thanks. Japan and the 4 dragons have set good examples in socio-economic developments, perfect benchmarks for Chinese!

 

[Yizhi]

The next wave is a big question mark. If we talk about the "revival of silk road". i.e. Beijing-Moscow-Berlin and Beijing-Islamabad-Tehran-Cairo, then it's like talking about the future Eurasian bloc, an expansion from SCO.

If we talk about "maritime silk road", then it is like China - SCS - IOR - Arabian Sea - Mediterranean - Africa.

Or both? ("一带一路").

remember Eurasia Economic Union? Russians are into this.

i wonder what will be Russia's reaction to the 'belt'. Russia's dominant role in Central Asia could be under challenge.

 

[Shotgunner51]

remember Eurasia Economic Union? Russians are into this.

i wonder what will be Russia's reaction to the 'belt'. Russia's dominant role in Central Asia could be under challenge.

It's not about challenge, it's about pragmatism, members should be equal partners.

 

[Martian2]

remember Eurasia Economic Union? Russians are into this.

i wonder what will be Russia's reaction to the 'belt'. Russia's dominant role in Central Asia could be under challenge.

I had commented on an article about the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). I said that Russia's current nominal GDP (at the exchange rate of 65 Rubles per US Dollar) is $1.1 trillion. The other three members total $300 billion, which is less than Taiwan's $500 billion.

My point was that Russia is forming an economic union with a bunch of pipsqueaks that were collectively smaller than Taiwan's economy. I suggested Russia had to make a deal with the massive Chinese $10.4 trillion economy. Since China grows by a Russia each year (or $1 trillion in nominal GDP), the Russian economy could benefit by forming a free trade union with China.

Alas, the moderator for the Eurasian website deleted my post. Talk about touchy.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I had commented on an article about the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). I said that Russia's current nominal GDP (at the exchange rate of 65 Rubles per US Dollar) is $1.1 trillion. The other three members total $300 billion, which is less than Taiwan's $500 billion.

My point was that Russia is forming an economic union with a bunch of pipsqueaks that were collectively smaller than Taiwan's economy. I suggested Russia had to make a deal with the massive Chinese $10.4 trillion economy. Since China grows by a Russia each year (or $1 trillion in nominal GDP), the Russian economy could benefit by forming a free trade union with China.

Alas, the moderator for the Eurasian website deleted my post. Talk about touchy.

People has to face reality in the end, let's be pragmatic like you said.

What Eurasian website?

 

[Martian2]

People has to face reality in the end, let's be pragmatic like you said.

What Eurasian website?

I don't remember the name of the website. It covered all of the Stans. There was a bunch of articles on the right hand column for different Central Asian countries. It uses the Livefyre comment system.

If I saw it again, I would recognize it. However, I rarely comment on small websites.

I made a similar comment on Japan Times.

People don't realize that deleting my comment has no effect. I usually post the same comment on mainstream websites as well (such as ABC News). It's futile to try and silence me. You can't kill an idea.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I don't remember the name of the website. It covered all of the Stans. There was a bunch of articles on the right hand column for different Central Asian countries. It uses the Livefyre comment system.

If I saw it again, I would recognize it. However, I rarely comment on small websites.

I made a similar comment on Japan Times.

People don't realize that deleting my comment has no effect. I usually post the same comment on mainstream websites as well (such as ABC News). It's futile to try and silence me. You can't kill an idea.

It's OK if just a small site then I might as well ignore it.
Btw, can't see your flags, care to introduce briefly?

 

[tranquilium]

Two hundred and thirty years ago, Britain started industrializing. Industrialization spread into Europe and America. Due to the necessity of the Cold War, industrialization expanded into East Asia.

I believe these factors were unique and no further expansion of industrialization will occur.

Thus, I had proposed an artificial form of industrialization. Whereas the Cold War caused the natural transfer of technology, I want to use a market-based willing-seller and willing-buyer model.

I had previously suggested China should offer an Asian Union or United States of China model to Mongolia, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

I would like to add one more country to the list. Afghanistan should also be an eligible candidate. Afghanistan is a critical country, which connects China to Iran. If Afghanistan can be brought into the Chinese sphere then it would ensure a permanent pipeline to Iran's vast oil fields.

Also, the Iranians have indicated a willingness to move into the Chinese camp. (Citation: Iran dumps US dollar, adopts Chinese yuan for settlements | Asia First )

Establishing a permanent pathway to Iran is in China's long-term interest.

People's Republic of China's industrialization can trace its roots to USSR. While China did enter global market in the 80s, its industrialization started more than two decades before that. (This is one of the reason China was able to compete so well. Its industrial base was already well established before it opened up its market to the international stage)

USSR's industrial revolution can trace its roots to its European neighbors. Germany was actually one of the major provider for technology transfer----right up to the day before their invasion in fact.

 

[Martian2]

It's OK if just a small site then I might as well ignore it.
Btw, can't see your flags, care to introduce briefly?

I'll wait for the option of three flags. I'm a Taiwanese-American of ethnic Chinese origin. Picking two out of three could be misleading to the reader.

People's Republic of China's industrialization can trace its roots to USSR. While China did enter global market in the 80s, its industrialization started more than two decades before that. (This is one of the reason China was able to compete so well. Its industrial base was already well established before it opened up its market to the international stage)

USSR's industrial revolution can trace its roots to its European neighbors. Germany was actually one of the major provider for technology transfer----right up to the day before their invasion in fact.

China's military industrialization does have roots in technology from the USSR.

My post/chart was discussing the transfer of civilian technology from Britain to US to Taiwan to China.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I'll wait for the option of three flags. I'm a Taiwanese-American of ethnic Chinese origin. Picking two out of three could be misleading to the reader.

If I were you I will put Taiwan flag and US flag, not necessary to put PRC flag.
Anyway good to meet you bro!

 

[tranquilium]

I'll wait for the option of three flags. I'm a Taiwanese-American of ethnic Chinese origin. Picking two out of three could be misleading to the reader.


China's military industrialization does have roots in technology from the USSR.

My post/chart was discussing the transfer of civilian technology from Britain to US to Taiwan to China.

Erm, civilian technology is the same thing. See the 156 projects from USSR in the 1950s:

苏联援建的156个项目_百度百科

The project include automobile, mining, heavy machinery manufacturing, power generation, pharmaceutical, fertilizer, chemical plants, textile, steel, transportation, etc. In fact, vast majority of the projects are civilian based. It is rather easy to understand, USSR needs a strategic partner that can stand on its own, but depends on USSR for military technology, hence the transfer is mainly civilian.