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This Is Not A Sectarian Conflict!

bozorgmehr

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For the sane people out there viewing the threads out there, what's happening in the Middle East today has nothing to do with Sectarian views. Saudis could care less about Sunnis and their plight against external forces. If the Sunnis in question do not comply with the Saudi wishes or pose the remotest threat to their dogma or corrupt and obscenely decadent way of life, they will throw them to the wolves, without a moment's hesitation.

And on the other hand, Iran has proven time and again that they can make common cause with Sunni populations and support them at great cost to themselves.

This is about the national interests of countries and the shifting geopolitical center of gravity in the region.

So if you want to understand what motivates each actor to behave the way they do, trace their actions back to the root of their interests in the region. Things may often be couched in religious terms for the sheeple in each society. But there's a deeper layer that explains even the religious rhetoric.
 
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The facts on the ground speak otherwise. Why do you think IS is so strong in Sunni Arab places like Anbar, Fallujah, Tikrit, Mosul? Yes there is also an ethnic side pitting Kurds against Arabs.
 
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You are correct that it can be explained in terms of national interests and geopolitics at least at the highest level. But this does not explain everything. There are other reasons here and I have explained them in this thread: 137 killed, 345 injured in Yemen bombing attacks | Page 3

But overall, it is not inter-sectarian. It is an intra-sectarian war.
 
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The facts on the ground speak otherwise. Why do you think IS is so strong in Sunni Arab places like Anbar, Fallujah, Tikrit, Mosul? Yes there is also an ethnic side pitting Kurds against Arabs.


There are plenty of examples to contradict what you said, to go around. People group themselves along many different lines. One of them is religion. But when push comes to shove, brothers will betray their brothers, depending on the size and importance of their interests... let alone coreligionists.

How else do you explain Sunni tribes cooperating with the evil Shia militias? How else do you explain Assad holding on to power and beating back rebels, with 80% of the population being sunni?

With that said, I wasn't talking about individuals and relatively small groups... Rather I was talking about the black and white and zero sum conflict between Iran and some Persian Gulf countries, as portrayed by some of the extremist members on this forum.

You are correct that it can be explained in terms of national interests and geopolitics at least at the highest level. But this does not explain everything. There are other reasons here and I have explained them in this thread: 137 killed, 345 injured in Yemen bombing attacks | Page 3

But overall, it is not inter-sectarian. It is an intra-sectarian war.

I would say it goes way beyond inter or intra-sectarian lines... In very simplistic terms, at this point in time, it's a fight for the interests of Saudis and their allies, against those of Iran and her allies.
 
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How else do you explain Assad holding on to power and beating back rebels, with 80% of the population being sunni?


Sunni Arabs were only 64% of the Syrian population at the start according to wiki Syrian Civil War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A majority but not overwhelming. Plus that is old 1960 stats. As of 2011 it was likely down to 50% or so due to conversion, intermarriage. Plus, being a secular a state, Sunnis in Syria are mostly moderate. Heck, Assad himself married a Sunni woman, the prime minister and the defense minister are both Sunni.
 
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Sunni Arabs were only 64% of the Syrian population at the start according to wiki Syrian Civil War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A majority but not overwhelming. Plus that is old 1960 stats. As of 2011 it was likely down to 50% or so due to conversion, intermarriage. Plus, being a secular a state, Sunnis in Syria are mostly moderate. Heck, Assad himself married a Sunni woman, the prime minister and the defense minister are both Sunni.

Buddy it's not like this kinda data is hard to dig up:

Syria PEOPLE 2015, CIA World Factbook
Religions:
Muslim 87% (official; includes Sunni 74% and Alawi, Ismaili, and Shia 13%), Christian (includes Orthodox, Uniate, and Nestorian) 10% (includes Orthodox, Uniate, and Nestorian), Druze 3%, Jewish (few remaining in Damascus and Aleppo)


Syria Population 2014 - World Population Review
Syrian Demographics
Syria is a largely Islamic country; according to the latest data from 2007, 87% of the country's population was Muslim. Broken down, around 74% are Sunni and around 13% are Shia. There are approximately 2 million Alawi in Syria today, and representatives of this group dominate Syrian politics and the Syrian military. Syria's current President, Bashar al-Assad, is an Alawi Shia.

The other two major religious groups in Syria are Christian (around 9% of the population) and Druze (3%).



And this is 2015 data.... As we know a few million Sunnis have become external refugees since the beginning of the conflict.

When it comes down to it, people and even more so countries will behave based on their interests, even if couched in ideological terms.
 
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Maa chakerim dadash.... i had a little time on my hand and plus it was the new year, I thought I drop by and see how everybody is doing.... :yahoo:
 
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And on the other hand, Iran has proven time and again that they can make common cause with Sunni populations and support them at great cost to themselves

How generous of you guys to be in the front-lines fighting for the poor and oppressed. All as a free lunch of course. And look who is talking, a Persian American that either he or his family couldn't stand life under the Mullahs regime and left to live among the Americans. To pay taxes to the U.S Federal Government that is leading the sanctions against Iran. Yet, he is in favor of exporting the Mullahs' control elsewhere in the Middle East.

How classy of you.
 
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How generous of you guys to be in the front-lines fighting for the poor and oppressed. All as a free lunch of course. And look who is talking, a Persian American that either he or his family couldn't stand life under the Mullahs regime and left to live among the Americans. To pay taxes to the U.S Federal Government that is leading the sanctions against Iran. Yet, he is in favor of exporting the Mullahs' control elsewhere in the Middle East.

How classy of you.


You're really not good at this reading and comprehending thing, are you? Maybe that's why you keep losing! :p:

I just mentioned that the Saud fiefdom and the country of Iran both act based on their interests, or at least what they perceive to be their interests. What does that mean? That means that Iran is not doing everything just for the sake of being generous, either.

Unlike Saudis and Persian Gulf Arab countries, Iran is not covered by any security arrangements with western countries. We experienced that bitter truth during the 8 year Arab invasion and paid an extremely high price for it. That's why it's in Iran's interest to make sure that regional actors, if not friendly with Iran, at least remain independent. This is so that they cannot be used as pawns by others to put pressure on Iran or start another proxy war. To that end, Iran will make common cause with Sunni entities such as Hamas, the Kurds and even the Muslim Brotherhood, provided that their primary goal is not the eradication of Shias and the destruction of Iran.

Saudis on the other hand, rely on the Americans and westerners in general to provide their security and make the region hospitable for them. They do not have the military, industrial or even the cultural weight to stand in their own right. In fact we all know that if it weren't for the Western powers, Saudi Arabia as we know it today, would not exist. So Saudis' interests are to a large extent the exact opposite of Iran's'. They want and need a strong and powerful US presence in the region. That also explains why they were so much more friendly with the Shah, the Persian Nationalist Monarch, despite all the rhetoric. Because he had accepted the same security arrangements. And Iran and Saudi were in fact teammates.

But the Saudis have got a problem right now. And that is the fact that with the new oil extraction technologies and the mounting cost of keeping peace in the region, the US doesn't appear to be so committed to this security arrangement anymore. In fact, they seem to have come to the conclusion that it's better to leave the water to find its own level. And if they can come to some kind of face saving accommodation with Iran, they might just take it.

And this is what has had the Saudis hyperventilating for the past few years. They knew when W refused to "cut the head of the snake", they might be looking at a geopolitical re-alignment in the region, down the line. So they've done one of the last things they could: Play the blatant Sunni Vs Shia card, in the hopes of overwhelming Iran. But there again, their incompetence ensures that everything they touch, turns to sh!t. As it turns out, Iran is also quite good at this game and if necessary can outperform the Saudis, with a fraction of resources at its disposal.

Saudis' last hope in the region is Israel. They too do not wish to tolerate an independent power in the region. They much prefer the existing order, where dictators and strong men do the dirty job of controlling the Arab masses. So you might get lucky and the Jewish lobby may still prevail in Washington, even though they haven't been doing as well recently.

But even that would be a temporary last stand. The fact is the west has contemplated a war of prevention with Iran, and has passed on the idea. So you might have to start making nice with Iran, sooner rather than later.... :-)

Good to see you here dear @bozorgmehr .

Happy new year .

Ey jaan, baradar! Happy new year to you too! :-)

I wish you all the best for this year.... I think it will be a good one.

I tell you something.... do whatever the hell pleases your heart. Go after what's meaningful to you, regardless of what others say. Our lives are too short to do othewise....

Sharepen your tools and refocus your mind.... It's spring.... It's time for rebirth and new beginnings...

deer zivi, tandorost zivi
 
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