The West and Russia

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

The West and Russia
Less chilly

A slightly warmer relationship between the West and Russia

GEORGE BUSH'S planned missile-defence system in eastern Europe was always contentious: would it provoke Russia into an arms race, was the threat of Iranian missiles real and would the proposed shield even work? But President Barack Obama’s decision to scrap it, arguably his biggest break yet with the foreign policy of his predecessor, is proving controversial too.

Allies in eastern Europe and Republican critics at home have been quick to cry treason and appeasement. “Betratyal! The USA has sold us to the Russians and stabbed us in the back,” screamed one Polish tabloid, Fakt. Senator John McCain, who lost the presidential race to Mr Obama last year, called the move “seriously misguided”. John Bolton, America’s tough ambassador to the UN under Mr Bush, declared: “Russia and Iran are the big winners. I just think it’s a bad day for American national security.”
In the view of Mr Obama’s critics, America retreated in the face of Russian bullying, and its threats to aim nuclear missiles at eastern Europe. Allies who took the risk to back the project, and tried to convince their sceptical publics of its value, have been left exposed. The potential costs of Mr Obama’s move are apparent. But what might he get in return? For now, little that is concrete: the hope that the gesture would help improve relations with Russia and unlock a host of foreign-policy issues, from arms-control agreements to enhanced sanctions against Iran and co-operation over Afghanistan.

President Dmitry Medvedev said there was no “primitive” bargain with America, but he dropped a tantalising hint: “The fact that they are listening to us is an obvious signal that we should also attentively listen to our partners, our American partners.” Yet Mr Medvedev’s may not be the voice that matters. Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister and still the real power of the land, suggested that he wants more concessions. “I do anticipate that this correct and brave decision will be followed by others,” Mr Putin said, pointing in particular to the joint bid by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

An early chance to gauge Russia’s response will come on October 1st, at talks in New York between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council (including America, which is seeking to engage Iran) as well as Germany. Iran has steadfastly refused to halt its nuclear-enrichment programme, which it says is to make fuel for civil reactors but which the West and others suspect is a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Russia and China have been most resistant to tightening economic sanctions against Tehran. Sanctions will not be on the agenda next month, but Western diplomats will be looking for signs of a change in Russia’s “mood music”, particularly whether it shares the same sense of urgency about the need to stop Iran’s nuclear work quickly.

“What I would expect is that Russia will join us in putting maximum political and diplomatic pressure on Iran to stop Iran’s nuclear aspirations,” declared NATO’s Secretary-General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Friday. He said that the world may be at a “nuclear tipping point”. Iran’s unchecked enrichment work, along with North Korea’s nuclear test this year, means that many other countries could soon seek to acquire nuclear weapons.

Still, the Obama administration has been at pains to say there was no bargain with Russia, and the decision to abandon Mr Bush’s missile-defence scheme was taken on its own merits.

Firstly, an unspecified fresh intelligence assessment concludes that the earliest Iran could develop long-range missiles—which Mr Bush’s shield was designed to defeat—is 2018 rather than 2015 as previous reckoned. Until then, the real Iranian threat comes from hundreds of short- and medium-range missiles.

So instead of having a large radar in the Czech Republic and powerful interceptors in Poland, Mr Obama says he will reconfigure the missile shield to establish smaller radars closer to Iran (perhaps in Turkey) and to deploy smaller interceptor missiles on board Aegis warships.

By 2015, more capable interceptors would be deployed at unspecified sites on land and by 2018 these would be replaced by even more capable ones that would provide coverage for all of Europe. Moreover, improvements in sensor technology and computer networks mean that the system would not need a large radar in central Europe. Instead the sensors would be mobile and dispersed on land, at sea, on aircraft and in space. Their information would be linked up by computer systems that could guide the interceptors. This, said Mr Obama, would offer “stronger, smarter and swifter defences”.


The West and Russia: Less chilly | The Economist

 

[nightcrawler]

Russia could challenge US interests – Report
Defense & Security News — By RIA Novosti on September 16, 2009 at 4:45 am

WASHINGTON: Russia has been among the countries that could challenge U.S interests, according to the U.S. 2009 National Intelligence Strategy (NIS).

The NIS, a four-year blueprint for intelligence services, was released late on Tuesday.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been listed as countries that "have the ability to challenge US interests" not only in traditional ways, such as military force and espionage, but also in "emerging" ways, in particular cyber operations.

"Russia is a U.S. partner in important initiatives such as securing fissile material and combating nuclear terrorism, but it may continue to seek avenues for reasserting power and influence in ways that complicate U.S. interests," NIS says.

However, the U.S. intelligence does not rule out cooperation with these states.

"There also may be opportunities for cooperation with many nation-states, including those cited above, in support of common interests that include promoting rule of law, representative government, free and fair trade, energy, and redress of troublesome transnational issues," the report says.

For the first time, enhancing cyber security was included in the list of national priorities. Though the document itself did not name any particular country that could be "a cyber threat," Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair mentioned Russia and China in connection with the issue.

"China is very aggressive in the cyber-world, so too is Russia and others," he said.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

Russia abandons plans to deploy missiles near Poland

The move comes in response to Obama's decision to scrap a proposed missile defense shield based in Poland and the Czech Republic.

By Megan K. Stack

An undated file picture shows a Russian Iskander on display during a military equipment exhibition in the Siberian town of Nizhny Tagil. (Evgeny Stetsko, AFP/Getty Images)


Reporting from Moscow - Russia will drop its controversial threat to deploy missiles near Poland in a reaction to shifts in U.S. missile shield plans, a Defense Ministry spokesman said today.

After President Obama decided this week to scrap its planned missile facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic, Moscow was widely expected to follow suit and abandon its threat to deploy Iskander missile systems in the far western Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

"Naturally, we will cancel the measures that Russia planned to take in response to the deployment of U.S. missile defense systems," Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin said in an interview with Ekho Moskvy radio. "Common sense has finally prevailed over ambitions."

Obama's move to scrap plans for the missile facilities, which the Kremlin viewed as a menace, removes a stubborn sticking point from U.S.-Russian relations. The timing suggests it might have been intended to woo Moscow into growing more helpful on the issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But Russian officials have remained noncommittal -- and their abandonment of an unfulfilled threat is unlikely to boost Western hopes for cooperation on the Iran issue.

Moscow has generally backed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and been at pains to maintain cordial relations -- and considerable trade interests -- with Iran. The Iranian president traveled to Russia this summer amid raging street protests over the legitimacy of his reelection, and was received by his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev.

Today, however, the Russian government sharply criticized Ahmadinejad for calling the Holocaust a "myth."

"Statements to that effect, no matter where they come from, signify a departure from the truth, and are unacceptable," Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said. "Attempts to deny the Holocaust . . . are an insult to all [ World War II] victims and to all those who fought against fascism."

Russia has come under heavy pressure from Israel and the United States to toughen its stance against Tehran's nuclear program. Expectations are growing in advance of Oct. 1, when officials from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China will meet with Iranian diplomats in Turkey.

The idea of deploying missiles in Kaliningrad had been roundly criticized by the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European countries. NATO officials warned that setting up missiles in the patch of Russian land between Poland and Lithuania would have violated U.S.-Russian security treaties.

Moscow replied that any military plans for Kaliningrad were an internal affair, and not up for international discussion. If the United States pressed ahead with its plans, Russian officials said, then so would Moscow.

Russia abandons plans to deploy missiles near Poland -- latimes.com

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

wat a tit for ta responce . I fear the US would get something big out of this understanding . Moreever the timing of such a move is very critical and now the ball is in Russia's court. The big question is would Russia abandone Iran's support over its peacefull Nuclear Programe or will continue to sheild it ?. Further The Chinese stance have attained a crucial importance regarding the Iran's Nuclear Programe i dont know what the Chinese would extract out of this basket .The comming days for Iran would be challenging .

The output of OCT 1st meeting in turkey would be critical for the Region.

 

[nightcrawler]

Moscow praises NATO's proposal to link missile defense systems
20:3218/09/2009

BRUSSELS, September 18 (RIA Novosti) -- Linking the U.S., NATO and Russia missile-defense systems is a feasible proposal, Russia's envoy to the North Atlantic alliance said on Friday.

NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen said earlier in the day that the Western alliance and Russia should consider linking their defensive missile systems.

"Given political will, such technical matters can be successfully resolved," Dmitry Rogozin said.

He said Russia was ready to team up with the West in developing a "road map" for a European missile defense architecture.

He cited a joint NATO-Russia Theater Missile Defense Computer Assisted Exercise under the aegis of the NATO-Russia Council (January 2008) as an example of such cooperation.

Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace conference, Rasmussen invited Russia to work with the bloc on a joint assessment of security challenges, adding that NATO, the U.S. and Russia had shared interests in working to prevent the proliferation of intercontinental ballistic missile technology.

Adjusted U.S. missile defense more effective against Iran - Gates
07:0219/09/2009


WASHINGTON, September 18 (RIA Novosti) - An adjusted U.S. missile defense in Europe would be more effective than the previously planned one even if the current intelligence data on the Iran threat is wrong, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Friday.

President Barack Obama announced Thursday that Washington was dropping its previous plans to deploy elements of a missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Two major developments led to the revision of the U.S. missile defense strategy in Europe: the increasing threat from Iran's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, rather than intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the significant advances in the U.S. missile defense capabilities in recent years.

"I probably am more familiar with the risks of over-reliance on intelligence than anybody because I've seen how often it's been wrong," Gates told journalists. "If the intelligence is wrong and the Iranians develop a capability sooner than the intelligence is saying, this architecture gives us a better chance of being able to cope with it."

The Bush administration sought to deploy an omni-directional radar in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in Poland as defense against potential strikes from Iran. Russia has consistently opposed the plans as a threat to its security and the strategic balance of forces in Europe.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev praised the U.S. move to scrap the missile shield plans as "a responsible approach" toward the dialogue between Moscow and Washington.

 

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China says pressure won't help Iran nuclear solution

By Ben Blanchard
Reuters
Thursday, September 24, 2009; 7:26 AM

BEIJING (Reuters) - Stepping up pressure on Iran was not an effective way to persuade the country to halt its nuclear programme, Beijing said on Thursday, even as China joined other major powers to demand a "serious response" from Tehran.

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and Germany, told Iran on Wednesday to prepare a "serious response" by October 1 to demands it halt its nuclear program, or risk the consequences.

The ultimatum came after U.S. President Barack Obama made his first speech to the U.N. General Assembly, urging leaders to join him in confronting world issues including Iran's nuclear plans.

Obama has also said he and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed this week that further U.N. sanctions will be considered if Iran does not respond to proposals to end a nuclear standoff.

CHINA UNEASY

But China, which has traditionally been ambivalent about bringing international pressure to bear on other nations and imports large amounts of crude oil from Iran, signaled that it would be uneasy with a heavy-handed approach.

"We believe that sanctions and exerting pressure are not the way to solve problems and are not conducive for the current diplomatic efforts on the Iran nuclear issue," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a regular news briefing in Beijing.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, in comments to the official Xinhua news agency also repeated China's stance that the issue of Iran's nuclear programme was best resolved peacefully through dialogue.

Foreign ministers from the six nations who signed off on the letter to Tehran had met at the United Nations to continue discussions about Iran's disputed nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at developing atomic weapons.

"We expect a serious response from Iran and will decide, in the context of our dual track approach, as a result of the meeting, on our next steps," British Foreign Minister David Miliband said, reading a statement agreed by Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

In Vienna, the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been urging Iran to explain Western intelligence reports suggesting Tehran has conducted research into building a nuclear warhead.

Iran says the intelligence is fabricated. It insists its nuclear ambitions are limited to the peaceful generation of electricity and has rejected Security Council demands that it suspend all sensitive nuclear activities.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in his own U.N. address on Wednesday, did not directly mention the nuclear issue.

washingtonpost.com

 

[nightcrawler]

Russian gen. says global missile shield could eliminate nuke threat
17:5721/09/2009
MOSCOW, September 21 (RIA Novosti) - A missile defense system developed jointly by the world's leading powers could eliminate the global threat of nuclear strikes, a former top Russian military official said on Monday.

The U.S. last week announced the cancellation of plans to deploy an anti-missile system in central Europe, which had been fiercely contested by Moscow. NATO has since said it is willing to consider a joint missile defense project with Russia.

"If we return to the issue of a European missile defense system, which was abandoned a few years ago and included the U.S., we could organize mutual controls, and use the means available to all participants, in order to control the mutual nuclear potential," said Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, who led the Strategic Missile Forces in 1991-1993.

If a global missile defense system was to be built in cooperation with Russia, France, Italy, Israel and Britain, on equal terms, then China would also need to be included, he said.

"If we decide to do this without China, then on a certain level, China may react angrily," Yesin said.

According to a senior fellow at the Center for International Security, Gen. Maj. Vladimir Dvorkovich, China would have to be included in data collection at first in order to ease possible tensions with China.

"Without China, this would be dangerous and irrational. China is a very significant player in these processes," Dvorkovich said.

According to Yesin, a framework document would need to be created that would be open for all interested parties in order to create a unified missile defense system "from Vladivostok to Vancouver."

"China must not sit on the sidelines and if we develop such a global system, then we will not be afraid of any nuclear strike," Yesin said.

Missile defense remains a controversial issue in military circles, with many experts saying the technology for intercepting ballistic missiles - often compared to hitting a bullet with a bullet - is still a long way off.

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency says interception of incoming missiles "has been successfully demonstrated in test after test," while critics say the tests depend on detailed advance planning and information on the incoming missile.