The Weakness of Xi Jinping - How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future

The Weakness of Xi Jinping

Hubris and paranoia threaten China’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

@Paul2
What do you think will happen in the next months, Xi will take all?

 

[MH.Yang]

I do not support Xi Jinping's third term.

1. I like the rule that every leader is in power for two terms and 10 years. During this period, our politics was very stable and our economic performance was very good. According to Occam's razor, we should not change it.

2. In addition to its excellent performance in anti-corruption. Xi's economic performance is worse than that of his predecessors.

3. If Xi wants a third term, he needs to extend everyone's retirement time. I don't like this.

4. In recent years, there are signs of carrying out personality cult propaganda. I think he needs to understand that the CCP and the 1.4 billion Chinese people, not him, are truly successful and great. Without practice, CCP can still provide us with better leaders. The hardworking and wise Chinese people can still do everything well. But without CCP and the Chinese people, Xi can do nothing.

 

[S10]

Ya, and the property bubble also started under Jiang. Hu refused to do anything about it as his admin was corrupt and made too much money from it. Xi tried to engineer a soft landing by repeatedly raising interest rates and reserve requirements but it already gotten out of hand when he came into power.

Also, you much have been living under a rock if you really think Xi was not good for innovation. Xi identified key emerging technologies and had industrial plans to became leaders in those areas. Under Xi, China really took off in the areas of clean technology, AI, robotics, aeronautics, bioengineering. Hu would have been content relying on western tech as long it made money.

Hu was basically made ineffectual by Jiang's cronies and did not have support of the PLA, so he was not able to carry out any major reforms. Xi is politically the most powerful since Deng, and he had 9 years to make major corrections but could not get the job done. If he can't pull off a soft landing and enact the economic reforms needed, then he should not occupy the position for longer. Someone else should take the post. Instead, he's doubling down on cult of personality and censorship. He puts the party ahead of the country.

Under Hu there was too much corruption and class conflict was coming to the fore. You might be one the newly wealthy class in china - so you wouldnt have minded.

But yea the zero covid looks bad. whats the end game here ? someone told me china would stop it once they have enough supply of therapeutics and enough icu beds.

Wealth inequality has gotten worse, not better under Xi. The real estate bubble has gotten worse under Xi. The economy has gotten worse under Xi. The political censorship has gotten worse under Xi.

There is a way out of zero COVID. It's called vaccination, face mask and promoting good personal hygiene. China had 11 million natural deaths before COVID, so people die regardless of causes. Crashing the economy over zero COVID at this point is insanity. Zero COVID made sense at the start of the pandemic when we had little effective means of managing and treating it, but this is no longer the case.

Oh, now you guys understand that?

Not everyone is a fan of the CPC in China.

 

[etylo]

I do not support Xi Jinping's third term.

1. I like the rule that every leader is in power for two terms and 10 years. During this period, our politics was very stable and our economic performance was very good. According to Occam's razor, we should not change it.

2. In addition to its excellent performance in anti-corruption. Xi's economic performance is worse than that of his predecessors.

3. If Xi wants a third term, he needs to extend everyone's retirement time. I don't like this.

4. In recent years, there are signs of carrying out personality cult propaganda. I think he needs to understand that the CCP and the 1.4 billion Chinese people, not him, are truly successful and great. Without practice, CCP can still provide us with better leaders. The hardworking and wise Chinese people can still do everything well. But without CCP and the Chinese people, Xi can do nothing.

Chinas economic performance under Xi has leveled off from high growth to middle high growth, thats a natural progession as china matures in development.

The standard retirement age in america is 67 and canada is 65 while that for male chinese is 60 and female chinese is 55 or 50 in some cases. Maybe its time for china to adjust its retirement age for its citizens considering esp now china is a steadily aging society, china needs workers to develop further.

 

[letsrock]

I do not support Xi Jinping's third term.

1. I like the rule that every leader is in power for two terms and 10 years. During this period, our politics was very stable and our economic performance was very good. According to Occam's razor, we should not change it.

2. In addition to its excellent performance in anti-corruption. Xi's economic performance is worse than that of his predecessors.

3. If Xi wants a third term, he needs to extend everyone's retirement time. I don't like this.

4. In recent years, there are signs of carrying out personality cult propaganda. I think he needs to understand that the CCP and the 1.4 billion Chinese people, not him, are truly successful and great. Without practice, CCP can still provide us with better leaders. The hardworking and wise Chinese people can still do everything well. But without CCP and the Chinese people, Xi can do nothing.

china may anyway have to extend retirement age for everyone considering the shortage of youth .

The two term rule exists only in china and usa.

I am surprised at everyone here saying economically china was very good pre-2012. Was there not like humongous pollution then ? and even a revolt of sorts where people were migrating back to villages in protest against rising inequalities ?

 

[nahtanbob]

if you replace Xi with random Chinese CCP leader what will really change (if any) ?

 

[MH.Yang]

china may anyway have to extend retirement age for everyone considering the shortage of youth .

The two term rule exists only in china and usa.

I am surprised at everyone here saying economically china was very good pre-2012. Was there not like humongous pollution then ? and even a revolt of sorts where people were migrating back to villages in protest against rising inequalities ?

There are many reasons for the collapse of the former Soviet Union, one of which is that Brezhnev destroyed the Communist Youth League led by seleping and changed the tenure of senior officials to life-long.

This led to the emergence of a fault in the gradient of senior officials in the Soviet Union, and finally enabled officials lacking qualifications and experience such as Gorbachev and Yeltsin to obtain the highest power.

I know Xi just wants a third term. However, this will also lead to the extension of the retirement age of the most senior officials by five years in the future. This is not a good thing.

The human physiological law determines that the last peak of human intelligence is before the age of 73. Delaying retirement may reduce the overall quality of our top leadership team.

 

[casual]

Hu was basically made ineffectual by Jiang's cronies and did not have support of the PLA, so he was not able to carry out any major reforms. Xi is politically the most powerful since Deng, and he had 9 years to make major corrections but could not get the job done. If he can't pull off a soft landing and enact the economic reforms needed, then he should not occupy the position for longer. Someone else should take the post. Instead, he's doubling down on cult of personality and censorship. He puts the party ahead of the country.


Wealth inequality has gotten worse, not better under Xi. The real estate bubble has gotten worse under Xi. The economy has gotten worse under Xi. The political censorship has gotten worse under Xi.

There is a way out of zero COVID. It's called vaccination, face mask and promoting good personal hygiene. China had 11 million natural deaths before COVID, so people die regardless of causes. Crashing the economy over zero COVID at this point is insanity. Zero COVID made sense at the start of the pandemic when we had little effective means of managing and treating it, but this is no longer the case.


Not everyone is a fan of the CPC in China.

Innovation took off under Xi. You are correct about his failings but you cannot overlook the accomplishments under Xi. With the US determined to keep China down, China needs a strong leader.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

China needs a leader like Putin, Xi is too soft.

Putin is an idiot.

Xi is 1000 times smarter than Putin.

 

[casual]

if you replace Xi with random Chinese CCP leader what will really change (if any) ?

Most likely more hawkish towards US.

 

[Leishangthem]

My opinion as observer,

XI's might be a capable leader,but the precedent would be set for a power struggle for future leaders, china needs a system to train the best cadre and future leaders with a predictable succession process,a party can't leave the succession to games of thrones like process,otherwise, cpc risk losing ground.
It's absolutely necessary to train young cadres instead of stacking old people who are refusing to leave their post ,inexperience among cadres can produce incompetent leaders which could be detrimental for a party like ccp.
But is there a leader capable of navigating a nation like China against the whole of US empire-EU,AUS,NZ,CA.KR,JP mobilized to contain china?It's not easy to be chairman of cpc in these tymes.

I had a bad opinion about zero covid policy as countries like India is operating with zero covid restriction while relishing on cheap russian oil,thus registering high growth.
But for Chinese leadership,covid casualties are unacceptable, loss of life is easier to discard in so called democracy,they just need to shift blame .I think Xi gov is waiting for the inhale vaccine which is more effective than mrna and can be mass used .
Once the inhale vaccine goes mass production,china can lift almost all restrictions.

 

[Beast]

Xi is much better than Hu.
Zero COVID was a good idea in 2020 and 2021 but needs to go now.
Xi I'd argue would make a good wartime president. You can't deny his transformation of China's armed forces.
The military's level of technology, training, and readiness is much better now than under Hu. Given today's global security environment, China needs to keep him for another term.

Not to mention his made in China 2025 vision helps to shape a lot of high tech and given China the backbone to fight US sanction.

If under Hu leadership, it will be non existent and Hu will likely try please western by becoming a factory instead of innovator for west.

 

[MH.Yang]

Putin is an idiot.

Xi is 1000 times smarter than Putin.

Xi only has better cards than Putin.

 

[MH.Yang]

My opinion as observer,

XI's might be a capable leader,but the precedent would be set for a power struggle for future leaders, china needs a system to train the best cadre and future leaders with a predictable succession process,a party can't leave the succession to games of thrones like process,otherwise, cpc risk losing ground.
It's absolutely necessary to train young cadres instead of stacking old people who are refusing to leave their post ,inexperience among cadres can produce incompetent leaders which could be detrimental for a party like ccp.
But is there a leader capable of navigating a nation like China against the whole of US empire-EU,AUS,NZ,CA.KR,JP mobilized to contain china?It's not easy to be chairman of cpc in these tymes.

I had a bad opinion about zero covid policy as countries like India is operating with zero covid restriction while relishing on cheap russian oil,thus registering high growth.
But for Chinese leadership,covid casualties are unacceptable, loss of life is easier to discard in so called democracy,they just need to shift blame .I think Xi gov is waiting for the inhale vaccine which is more effective than mrna and can be mass used .
Once the inhale vaccine goes mass production,china can lift almost all restrictions.

CCP has very perfect rules for building and promoting the echelon of officials. The problem now is that someone wants to break this rule.

 

[ARMalik]

Yep Western Media and their White Zionist masters know what is good for China. Yes of course, just submit yourselves to the slavery of Whites and it will all be good. All non-white, non-Zionist people are STUPID, dumb and Kill their own people. SO ONLY WHITES ZIONISTS are intelligent and humaine, and know what is good for you. China is an Evil Empire, Russia is an Evil Empire, everyone is EVIL except for White Anglo Saxons and their cronies !

 

[casual]

Not to mention his made in China 2025 vision helps to shape a lot of high tech and given China the backbone to fight US sanction.

If under Hu leadership, it will be non existent and Hu will likely try please western by becoming a factory instead of innovator for west.

Ya, and China absolutely needs a strong leader now. If Xi does step down, his replacement better has balls of steel and complete control of the military.