CardSharp
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So, the USS George Washington is steaming back towards Japan after four days of joint exercises in the Yellow Sea, and here we still are. However, while the immediate danger of further conflagration may have passed, the situation on the Korean peninsula remains perilous.
Seoul has already announced further exercises for next week (it was a live fire drill that Pyongyang used as a pretext for last weeks bombardment) and is talking about stationing short-range missiles on the island that was attacked. This might be posturing on the part of the Lee government which is under serious pressure at home not to turn the other cheek if the North attacks again but it will certainly keep that disputed sea border on a hair-trigger for the forseeable future.
Equally worrying is the diplomatic deadlock which has put China flatly at odds with America (and South Korea and Japan) over how to handle Pyongyang. The divisions were made abundantly clear from the fact that the US, Japan and South Korea are planning talks in Washington (not Beijing) next week, while China has blocked all attempts to get a censure of North Korea at the UN in New York.
There has been much talk, following the WikiLeaks revelations this week, that China is ready to abandon North Korea, but you only have to look at Chinas reaction to the events of the past week to see that that is a fanciful notion.
The point is that right from the word go, the Chinese have acted as a virtual spokesman for the North Korean position. The houses were still burning when the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman was at his rostrum calling for an immediate return to the Six Party talks.
This is exactly what Pyongyang wants. Kim Jong-il couldnt have put it any better if it hed scripted the remarks himself. This doesnt mean China is happy with North Koreas belligerence, but rather that from a self-interested perspective it sees that talks are the only way to put a lid on the Korean situation before it gets out of control and something really nasty happens.
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo are talking tough for now, but with war not an option, they dont honestly have a better proposal. Their refusal to talk really comes down to a matter of timing ie talks, yes, but not now, otherwise it would look like Pyongyang was shelling and torpedoing its way to the table.
But talk they must, however unpalatable that might be, and the longer the Korean hiatus continues, the greater the chance that an accident will happen. The Chinese are right about that.
And there is, of course, one final nuclear elephant in the room here. The Obama and Lee administrations want North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons in return for handsome aid packages. That was the deal that was almost struck a few years ago when the Six Party talks were on, but it fell apart when it became clear that Pyongyang wasnt honouring its side of the bargain.
Trouble is, I havent spoken to a single North Korean expert or analyst Chinese or American who seriously believes that North Koreas hyper-militarist regime would give up its strongest bargaining counter, viz. its nuclear ace. If you were Kim (Snr or Jnr) would you?
Which means the entire concept of an aid for nukes deal is built on a premise that all sides know to be false: hence the deadlock and the diplomatic vacuum which North Korea is increasingly filling with fire. It really is a game of high-stakes poker, with both sides Pyongyang and Washington/Seoul in their own ways trying to tough it out, in the hope that the other side will blink first.
Viewed from that perspective, Chinas position of talks, based onrealpolitik and throwing the dog a bone (instead of threatening to club him on the head) starts to look rather more sensible.
The War Games are over, but North Korea hasn't blinked. The US is running out of options – Telegraph Blogs
Seoul has already announced further exercises for next week (it was a live fire drill that Pyongyang used as a pretext for last weeks bombardment) and is talking about stationing short-range missiles on the island that was attacked. This might be posturing on the part of the Lee government which is under serious pressure at home not to turn the other cheek if the North attacks again but it will certainly keep that disputed sea border on a hair-trigger for the forseeable future.
Equally worrying is the diplomatic deadlock which has put China flatly at odds with America (and South Korea and Japan) over how to handle Pyongyang. The divisions were made abundantly clear from the fact that the US, Japan and South Korea are planning talks in Washington (not Beijing) next week, while China has blocked all attempts to get a censure of North Korea at the UN in New York.
There has been much talk, following the WikiLeaks revelations this week, that China is ready to abandon North Korea, but you only have to look at Chinas reaction to the events of the past week to see that that is a fanciful notion.
The point is that right from the word go, the Chinese have acted as a virtual spokesman for the North Korean position. The houses were still burning when the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman was at his rostrum calling for an immediate return to the Six Party talks.
This is exactly what Pyongyang wants. Kim Jong-il couldnt have put it any better if it hed scripted the remarks himself. This doesnt mean China is happy with North Koreas belligerence, but rather that from a self-interested perspective it sees that talks are the only way to put a lid on the Korean situation before it gets out of control and something really nasty happens.
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo are talking tough for now, but with war not an option, they dont honestly have a better proposal. Their refusal to talk really comes down to a matter of timing ie talks, yes, but not now, otherwise it would look like Pyongyang was shelling and torpedoing its way to the table.
But talk they must, however unpalatable that might be, and the longer the Korean hiatus continues, the greater the chance that an accident will happen. The Chinese are right about that.
And there is, of course, one final nuclear elephant in the room here. The Obama and Lee administrations want North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons in return for handsome aid packages. That was the deal that was almost struck a few years ago when the Six Party talks were on, but it fell apart when it became clear that Pyongyang wasnt honouring its side of the bargain.
Trouble is, I havent spoken to a single North Korean expert or analyst Chinese or American who seriously believes that North Koreas hyper-militarist regime would give up its strongest bargaining counter, viz. its nuclear ace. If you were Kim (Snr or Jnr) would you?
Which means the entire concept of an aid for nukes deal is built on a premise that all sides know to be false: hence the deadlock and the diplomatic vacuum which North Korea is increasingly filling with fire. It really is a game of high-stakes poker, with both sides Pyongyang and Washington/Seoul in their own ways trying to tough it out, in the hope that the other side will blink first.
Viewed from that perspective, Chinas position of talks, based onrealpolitik and throwing the dog a bone (instead of threatening to club him on the head) starts to look rather more sensible.
The War Games are over, but North Korea hasn't blinked. The US is running out of options – Telegraph Blogs
oh ya!! goes without sayin!! but i'm talkin abt kim n his foes though!!
