The thread is progressing nicely and as promised to write something about agriculture. Before I start with the suggestions and thoughts on agriculture, I will touch on a few points which are essential and a few of members have already mentioned (These are not in order as all will need to be working in order for a successful economy):
@313ghazi @Reddington
1. Ease of doing business (or the lack of it) is a major barrier to success in Pakistan. A few members already hinted on it. Government to reform.
2. Tax: Make the tax filing easy and reduce taxes on businesses. Also make it simpler. I won’t go into details here but Government to reform.
3. Judiciary system: A justice system which is fair, is a foundation building block in a society/country. Judiciary should also make laws which are relevant and keep updating as and when needed (i.e. online hacking/social media, terrorism etc). Government to reform.
4. Police Force: After judiciary the nation need some force to implement the rules and laws, so a good police force will be needed. Government to reform.
5. Education system: Again, some members already have mentioned, and I will stress on having an educated youth which can innovate, work hard and think through processes will only make the journey easier. Government to reform.
6. Health system: A healthy nation will be able to materialise the opportunities and work towards a better future. Government should make reforms.
The above six points together with foreign policies as well as defence for the country should reside with the government. All the remaining sectors should be dealt by private investors or even private/public investment. My preference is private investors with oversight from the government by introducing quality controls as well as legislation/rules for environment factors (i.e. dealing with waste water, chemical and other waste etc).
Some members suggested a total ban on imports. I would suggest thinking about the consequences of this. There are certain essential goods which will need to be imported or the country will grind to a halt. Furthermore, if such a ban is applied one should expect the black/grey market to flourish (costing the State in revenues). Almost 21% of the tax collection was from Excise and Customs duties (2017-18). Say goodbye to this after the import ban. If you would like to check the figures:
http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/tax.pdf
The flight of forex may reduce slightly but not effectively. I like the idea of increasing the import duty on luxury and non-essential goods. We can further investigate the top 10 goods by import value and try to see which of those can be produced in Pakistan by making small/smart changes.
1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$17.1 billion (28.4% of total imports)
2. Machinery including computers: $6.3 billion (10.4%)
3. Electrical machinery, equipment: $4.3 billion (7.2%)
4. Iron, steel: $3.7 billion (6.1%)
5. Organic chemicals: $2.8 billion (4.6%)
6. Vehicles: $2.6 billion (4.3%)
7. Plastics, plastic articles: $2.5 billion (4.1%)
8. Animal/vegetable fats, oils, waxes: $2.1 billion (3.5%)
9. Oil seeds: $1.5 billion (2.4%)
10. Cotton: $1.3 billion (2.1%)
The above account for about 73% of the total imports. We can grow Animal/Vegetable fats, oils, waxes (to some extent), Oil seeds and cotton. Reducing the import bill by about 8%. All other sectors such as vehicles, computers and machinery will take a long time to setup and these industries will cost multi-billion-dollar in investment.
There should be parallel commitment to modernizing agriculture and producing not only the cash crops but also all other crops which reduce/eliminate imports. The aim should be to make life easier and not place hurdles/difficulties. Found the following page (good information, saved me pulling data into spreadsheet and analyse):
https://www.pbc.org.pk/research/selected-trade-and-manufacturing-data-for-pakistan-a-brief_analysis-2/
This is good point to look at agriculture and related industry. Where we stand and what the possibilities are based on data from developed countries. First, we need to understand that majority of the farmers have small land holdings. I think we are standing at the crossroads where small land holders would not be able to survive due to the costs of farming as well as unable to cultivate efficiently. I expect a major shift from small land holdings to commercial farming.
The above table shows how crop yields fair compare to world’s best. I would like to introduce modern agriculture in order to increase the yields. Imagine if Wheat, Rice and Maize production can be doubled with the same arable land. A few points to note in order to get higher yields:
1. Soil testing: (Government should build labs in every district to test soils types). This is very beneficial for the farmer as it will show the type of fertiliser is needed the most and which crop can be cultivated successfully.
2. Pesticide/Herbicide: Farmers should be made aware of the pesticides and herbicides used to kill weeds and the effects of these on crops. Modern practices should be introduced and use of these should also be minimised with better planning and crop management (i.e. crop rotation could take care of some of the problems).
3. Irrigation: This is most important as Pakistan is water stressed country and we should endeavour to introduce sprinkler/drip irrigation. Drip could above surface or sub surface. This will not only save water but also drip fertigation will reduce the use of fertilisers as well. Better yields with less water and fertiliser. Solar panels can be used to produce electricity for irrigation.
4. Seed selection: This is very important. After soil testing appropriate seed should be selected in order to get the most yield. Seed treatment should be applied before seeding etc. So, there should be seminars/workshops for farmers to introduce them to new techniques. Some seed research should also be done. Take example of Israel where they have research in new seed production (they have experimented with mixing saline water with sweet water to grow potatoes etc.).
5. Equipment: Modern equipment for agriculture. Be it tractors, planters, harvesters etc. This will not only mechanise the sector but also help with quality control.
6. Tillage/No Tillage: I am sure most of farmers in Pakistan will be unaware of no tillage farming and its benefits for the soil. Farmers can be made aware of this so this can be introduced for wheat crop or even for maize etc (won’t work for potatoes).
If the above points can be introduced, I am sure not only the yields will go up, but the quality of the grain will also be improved and better profits for the farmers.
Once the grain is harvested it could either be sold for processing or kept in on farm storage for livestock feed etc. This is where industry comes into play. We can process wheat, corn and oil seeds to get flour, edible oil from our own produce rather than importing it. Furthermore, feed mills can produce feeds which then can be used in livestock sector. Our livestock sector is one of the largest in the world (dairy, poultry etc). These sectors can make a major difference in not only producing enough for the 210 million population but also for export. One is astonished at findings that cheese and milk is still imported. Private sector should invest in poultry, meat and milk processing so that we can have milk available for all the population and in every season so is meat, cheese and yogurt.
The dairy and poultry sector manure can be used as fertiliser (reducing further reliance on fertilisers). Government should not only support (tax breaks etc) these sectors but also introduce quality control measures. This quality control will help us certify our products in the world market so after processing of meat and milk we will be able to export. I can write about other related sectors (textiles etc) but I think this should be enough to start a thought process in younger generation.
All of the above is useless unless until we start to work for our future and make a change at an individual level. As I am a strong believer that individuals make a community, village, city and a nation. So, do your part it doesn’t even have to be big. Just introduce Faith, Unity and Discipline in your lives. Be steadfast and march on for a better tomorrow.
