Khafee
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Interesting point - exorbitant tariffs on imported items should ideally force Int'l companies to manufacture locally, is that happening?
The Ugly Truth About Pak Economy: A Brief History
- Thread starter Mangus Ortus Novem
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Did you just posted for the sake of posting?
I have zero sympathy for people who sit on the road side staring at girls thinking it is something cool, neither do I have sympathy on 30 year old babies whose daddy is still feeding them, forget about hatta katta beggars. So if you were mentioning that kind of awam you got my answer...this laziest bunch who are dependent on foreign bheek deserve to die, the saying fits perfect here for such people "dharti per boojh".
Yes they can, and btw the items you mentioned is mostly used by upper middle/upper/elite class --- if Imran Khan has the courage (which he doesn't), straightaway ban these products including LAND CRUISERS???
Coming to Awaam, they can't survive with expensive electricity/gas rates and they also can't survive with exorbitant taxes on necessities.
Not going to happen at least in near future.
One ugly truth:
ISLAMABAD: Amid growing pressure from lawyers over a reference against Justice Qazi Faez Isa of the Supreme Court, Law Minister Dr Farogh Nasim on Thursday distributed Rs175 million of taxpayers money among 133 bar associations to win over their support.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1490842/govt-distributes-rs175m-among-lawyers-bodies
Imran Khan & co must pay from their pockets to win the support of lawyer mafia.
ISLAMABAD: Amid growing pressure from lawyers over a reference against Justice Qazi Faez Isa of the Supreme Court, Law Minister Dr Farogh Nasim on Thursday distributed Rs175 million of taxpayers money among 133 bar associations to win over their support.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1490842/govt-distributes-rs175m-among-lawyers-bodies
Imran Khan & co must pay from their pockets to win the support of lawyer mafia.
Mangus Ortus Novem
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@Khafee old friend, you asked for it...so there it is.
How we got here?
I shall be forced to cut this tale of sorrows short...the article at the start of this thread is there for reference.
Let us take last ten years... without an economic policy and a National Sport of Organised Corruption and State Bank of Pakistan supervised moneylaundering is not a new thing to discuss here...but as a marker will do.
It is not just the debt servicing, maturity and redemption in this financial year and next... but also a strong component of hybridwar that the economy was brought to the edge of abysee.
SOEs were destroyed not only due to corruption, nepotism but also by design.... leaving the state in debt/annulised losses of these SOE of 1.5+ Trillion PKR. Thus more borrowing... a classic Debt Trap.
NFC award was another masterstroke of hybridwar, a byproduct of 18th amendment which essentially turned Pak into a confederation than a federation.
Hybridwar again... as the NROfied leaders have to do their masters bidding..and they did to hilt.
With last five years of debt accumulation, combined with there-is-no-tomorrow moneylaundering brought the state finances to literal bankrupcy.
It was once again the trusted friends and brothers who bailed out GoP/PakState.... in this closing financial year $9Bln have been used to service debt. However, in this next fiscal year a debt servicing of $27+Bln needs to take place. So not out of woods yet.
Expats send about $35-40Bln backhome. But more than half comes back through hundi. This is multi trillion PKR business as it is linked to moneylaundering/black economy.
Noora leauge economic data is fudged and also based on import based numbers as indicators of GDP growth... where as actual growth was negative...save construction sector...which was/is black anyway. Reference: SCP vs Baharia Town verdict.
Dog food to jams are imported in a country where 60% are on/below the povertyline. So, it was a classic case of EconomicTerrorism.
This CPEC-CPEC gamechanger/fatechanger was a truck ki bati... as again it was not..not at least in its present form. With expensive Showbaazi loans and then eating out the money from contracts with off-shore trusts/companies... you can fill in the rest.
But there is a less discussed case of smuggling from AF and Iran...
1) Afghanistan
Of course you know that PTM is also financed by smugglers who are loosing a trade of $10Bln annually. Both route from former FATA and Chaman are being fenced... btw Quetta open market dollar trading is an open secret of dollars coming in and going out of Pak without records...
2) Iran
About 1Trillion PKR worth of oil products are smuggled from Iran...hence their resistence to fencing there.... and this smuggling in NOT paid in PKR... it is an elaborate network leading all the way to Karachi...and you know the ubber Don there.
So, in short Pak economy has been feeding Iran/Af for a long time... the combined loss in revenues and Forex runs into tens of billions... cash dollars are used...which go on to feed Iran/AF ruling elites/forces..
So this PTM/BLA issues is more complex...there is economic dimension to it as well.
Then of course... models taking cash out of the country...old story...but happening today as well... it hasn't been plugged yet.
The fundamental mistake this current GoP made was not going hard on imports and smuggling routes.. an outright ban on non-essentials would have been done in the first few weeks of their arrival. But they were taken for a ride by the FinMin, SBP and 'Business Community'... also their #Buzdarism is to blame... less prepared on top of that.
GoP chose the lazy route of devaluation... the rest is obvious. IMF should have not been pursued and even NOW can be avoided. Our friends helped a lot..and Asad Umar tried honestly...but the #CriminalEnterprise in FinMin/SBP and the 'market' didn't want him...so he got the chop, replaced by professional hitman.
What is way ahead:
Dollar came down yesterday before the Chief even uttered a word. Of course, validating the fact that the artifical manipulation by the #CriminalEnterprise. IMF only requires that there be solid management on balance of payment...that new loans are not acquired which cann't be serviced....
But in the current package the FATF compliance requirement is the First in the history of IMF. Why?
Regardless, the natural value of PKR at the moment is around 130-135..even less... simply because the size of Pak Economy.. registered and unregistered is at the minimum $800Bln.. as black economy is about 70%.... with asset declaration scheme... this will come to forth.
As of now FBR portal has crashed...because now they blackmarkteers are waking up to the reality that this time Pak State means business. Chief's speech has magical effect!
Sloutions:
1) Declare possession of foreign currency in cash form illegal. Period. Everyone goes to bank and opens an account.
2) Trade with AF will be conducted in PKR... Period. Untill smuggling stops fully... Only in PKR... even after that.
3) Turn a blind eye to oil smuggling from Iran...but payment in PKR... let My Jinnah become favourite in Tehran... I say double the size of this smuggling..now that no one is buying their oil... but NO More dollars going that way.
4) Ban all private money changers... overnight ban. Period. All through banks...
5) Stop Capital outflows... only authorised money transfer and only for those who are taxpayers. Period. No More TTs.
6) Pak State knows about every single hundi wala... just stop it. It will cause problems to expats for a couple of month... but PakPost is offering to-the-door-delivery of money sent to families... so this has to be the only way.
7) Announce that before the end of this fiscal year all PKR currency notes will be changed in design... so better put money in the bank... will help with registeration of undocumented economy as well...along with revenue growth.
8) Grand bargain with the US... safe/honourable exist for debt redemption/reduction...
9) Trade with China in mutal currencies only! And with agreed balanced trade without defecit...this would require some effort...
Perservation of the State is Highest Virture. The Only Virtue.... it is Do or Die moment... because the inflation will create a massive pain for already crushed 60% Paks.... and this has been the gameplan of Hybridwar all along...
Weaponised Finance has hit Pak hard.... now time to fight back. Kindly, see that economy is not an exact science. Devaluation hurts both in short and long term. So this decision is outright stupid...but then FinMin, SBP and Fin markets in Pak are thoroughly compromised... Pak State knows it!
But it is not all lut gae mur gae.... neither it is 'no problem'.... it is a serious attack with help of NROfied elites and permanent #CriminalEnterprise...
State is ready to strike.... proof... shut-up call to #MarasiParliment... all song-and-dance on Charter of Economy... #DieselMullah punctured in APC... Billo doing full Dallas... Maryam in the rabbit hole.. Showbaaz... on the ground...
A de facto Financial Emergy is in the works... if it doesn't go according to Plan then.. full monty!
For validation... kindly, have a look what Pak State is speaking softly...but carrying a Big Stick...
Supreme Court is in for the Kill:
Chief Justice SCP has made some remakable observations and given verdicts which would be binding to the lower courts... he has slowly, without much fanfare transformed the judiciary... LaWhore highcourt put the Showbaaz son in jail!
What is most interesting is his observation about corruption, moneylaundering and tax evations.... the Pillar of Pak State has spoken.. IHC denied bail to mega moneyluandering accused just yesterday...
Only option slowly left is that of Plea Bargain..
Chief has spoken!:
In 2017 Chief spoke to seminar in Karachi and conveyed his concerns about economy and rising debt profile of the country...then Isaq$ went all balerina with #MarasiMedia and #Lifafas going all JumWhoriaat... Civilian Superemcy
Now again Chief spoke..but this time in National Defence University.... the message is clear.
Weaponised Finance will be fought back tooth and nail. And everyone needs to fall in line...before he spoke...PKR fell by 4... freemaket?
All leading economists and our lovely de facto finance minister and FBR chairman were there... you know what I mean... but most interesting fact is that the conference was hosted by the one who hates IMF..and there were other Pak economists who have been speaking out against EconomicTerrorism and Weaponised Finance... you know Pindi better than I ..so you can 'read' it better than I!
PMIK and Pak State are on the same page i.e. Perservation of State is Highest Virtue.
As I hinted in my pervious post in this thread... a Financial Emergency is in the works... first phase unannounced... if it doesn't work...then .... anyhow, it all will be clear after PMIK's Washington tour.
The Hidden Hand:
Adam Smith is dead. Long live his hidden hand... it is alive and kicking... the rise in dollar value was pure EconomicTerrorism conducted by the 'freemarket' manipulators... with full cooperation of FinMin, SBP, dollar traders and private banks... this needs to be crushed.
The current chairman of SBP needs his pasport blocked..and a good chat needs to be had... he ain't going anywhere... the little stunt he pulled off in Eygpt is not going to fly in Pak.
Since IMF wants the market to determine the real value of PKR against dollar...then I say let the free market decide that the real value of PKR is between 130-135... within next two months.. and when the above mentioned measure take hold obviously freemarket shall decided that the PKR is undervalude and gradually bring it down...
Similarly... with the rise in dollar accounts, as mentioned above, will 'allow' the SBP to bring markup to lower figures... hence lowering inflation... all these measure will lower national debt. A true relief to Paks!
With housing sector to be launched soon... a kickstart of economic growth can be managed. I say CAN be managed... because for this you would need professionals and not coconut babus with their shell companies and trusts..
Mauritius is a beautiful place!
Your people and Chinese want to invest heavily in this... I say go for it.
Important in all this to see that #MarasiMedia and #Lifafas start praying... there is too much negativity...all paid-for... you shall slowly see them starting singing a different tune.
It is however imperative that the Bench no. 1 of SCP and COAS get a three years extension. No should not be taken for an answer.
PS. The Strategic Economic & Security Framework between GCC and Pak is lying dormant for so long... when/if it gets signed...would be a transformative event.
Money, old friend, is NO problem... I assure you as moneyman!
#DandayWaliSarkar is coming! And NO it is not marshal law... libtards can commit harakiri...but they wont'.
How we got here?
I shall be forced to cut this tale of sorrows short...the article at the start of this thread is there for reference.
Let us take last ten years... without an economic policy and a National Sport of Organised Corruption and State Bank of Pakistan supervised moneylaundering is not a new thing to discuss here...but as a marker will do.
It is not just the debt servicing, maturity and redemption in this financial year and next... but also a strong component of hybridwar that the economy was brought to the edge of abysee.
SOEs were destroyed not only due to corruption, nepotism but also by design.... leaving the state in debt/annulised losses of these SOE of 1.5+ Trillion PKR. Thus more borrowing... a classic Debt Trap.
NFC award was another masterstroke of hybridwar, a byproduct of 18th amendment which essentially turned Pak into a confederation than a federation.
Hybridwar again... as the NROfied leaders have to do their masters bidding..and they did to hilt.
With last five years of debt accumulation, combined with there-is-no-tomorrow moneylaundering brought the state finances to literal bankrupcy.
It was once again the trusted friends and brothers who bailed out GoP/PakState.... in this closing financial year $9Bln have been used to service debt. However, in this next fiscal year a debt servicing of $27+Bln needs to take place. So not out of woods yet.
Expats send about $35-40Bln backhome. But more than half comes back through hundi. This is multi trillion PKR business as it is linked to moneylaundering/black economy.
Noora leauge economic data is fudged and also based on import based numbers as indicators of GDP growth... where as actual growth was negative...save construction sector...which was/is black anyway. Reference: SCP vs Baharia Town verdict.
Dog food to jams are imported in a country where 60% are on/below the povertyline. So, it was a classic case of EconomicTerrorism.
This CPEC-CPEC gamechanger/fatechanger was a truck ki bati... as again it was not..not at least in its present form. With expensive Showbaazi loans and then eating out the money from contracts with off-shore trusts/companies... you can fill in the rest.
But there is a less discussed case of smuggling from AF and Iran...
1) Afghanistan
Of course you know that PTM is also financed by smugglers who are loosing a trade of $10Bln annually. Both route from former FATA and Chaman are being fenced... btw Quetta open market dollar trading is an open secret of dollars coming in and going out of Pak without records...
2) Iran
About 1Trillion PKR worth of oil products are smuggled from Iran...hence their resistence to fencing there.... and this smuggling in NOT paid in PKR... it is an elaborate network leading all the way to Karachi...and you know the ubber Don there.
So, in short Pak economy has been feeding Iran/Af for a long time... the combined loss in revenues and Forex runs into tens of billions... cash dollars are used...which go on to feed Iran/AF ruling elites/forces..
So this PTM/BLA issues is more complex...there is economic dimension to it as well.
Then of course... models taking cash out of the country...old story...but happening today as well... it hasn't been plugged yet.
The fundamental mistake this current GoP made was not going hard on imports and smuggling routes.. an outright ban on non-essentials would have been done in the first few weeks of their arrival. But they were taken for a ride by the FinMin, SBP and 'Business Community'... also their #Buzdarism is to blame... less prepared on top of that.
GoP chose the lazy route of devaluation... the rest is obvious. IMF should have not been pursued and even NOW can be avoided. Our friends helped a lot..and Asad Umar tried honestly...but the #CriminalEnterprise in FinMin/SBP and the 'market' didn't want him...so he got the chop, replaced by professional hitman.
What is way ahead:
Dollar came down yesterday before the Chief even uttered a word. Of course, validating the fact that the artifical manipulation by the #CriminalEnterprise. IMF only requires that there be solid management on balance of payment...that new loans are not acquired which cann't be serviced....
But in the current package the FATF compliance requirement is the First in the history of IMF. Why?
Regardless, the natural value of PKR at the moment is around 130-135..even less... simply because the size of Pak Economy.. registered and unregistered is at the minimum $800Bln.. as black economy is about 70%.... with asset declaration scheme... this will come to forth.
As of now FBR portal has crashed...because now they blackmarkteers are waking up to the reality that this time Pak State means business. Chief's speech has magical effect!
Sloutions:
1) Declare possession of foreign currency in cash form illegal. Period. Everyone goes to bank and opens an account.
2) Trade with AF will be conducted in PKR... Period. Untill smuggling stops fully... Only in PKR... even after that.
3) Turn a blind eye to oil smuggling from Iran...but payment in PKR... let My Jinnah become favourite in Tehran... I say double the size of this smuggling..now that no one is buying their oil... but NO More dollars going that way.
4) Ban all private money changers... overnight ban. Period. All through banks...
5) Stop Capital outflows... only authorised money transfer and only for those who are taxpayers. Period. No More TTs.
6) Pak State knows about every single hundi wala... just stop it. It will cause problems to expats for a couple of month... but PakPost is offering to-the-door-delivery of money sent to families... so this has to be the only way.
7) Announce that before the end of this fiscal year all PKR currency notes will be changed in design... so better put money in the bank... will help with registeration of undocumented economy as well...along with revenue growth.
8) Grand bargain with the US... safe/honourable exist for debt redemption/reduction...
9) Trade with China in mutal currencies only! And with agreed balanced trade without defecit...this would require some effort...
Perservation of the State is Highest Virture. The Only Virtue.... it is Do or Die moment... because the inflation will create a massive pain for already crushed 60% Paks.... and this has been the gameplan of Hybridwar all along...
Weaponised Finance has hit Pak hard.... now time to fight back. Kindly, see that economy is not an exact science. Devaluation hurts both in short and long term. So this decision is outright stupid...but then FinMin, SBP and Fin markets in Pak are thoroughly compromised... Pak State knows it!
But it is not all lut gae mur gae.... neither it is 'no problem'.... it is a serious attack with help of NROfied elites and permanent #CriminalEnterprise...
State is ready to strike.... proof... shut-up call to #MarasiParliment... all song-and-dance on Charter of Economy... #DieselMullah punctured in APC... Billo doing full Dallas... Maryam in the rabbit hole.. Showbaaz... on the ground...
A de facto Financial Emergy is in the works... if it doesn't go according to Plan then.. full monty!
For validation... kindly, have a look what Pak State is speaking softly...but carrying a Big Stick...
Supreme Court is in for the Kill:
Chief Justice SCP has made some remakable observations and given verdicts which would be binding to the lower courts... he has slowly, without much fanfare transformed the judiciary... LaWhore highcourt put the Showbaaz son in jail!
What is most interesting is his observation about corruption, moneylaundering and tax evations.... the Pillar of Pak State has spoken.. IHC denied bail to mega moneyluandering accused just yesterday...
Only option slowly left is that of Plea Bargain..
Chief has spoken!:
In 2017 Chief spoke to seminar in Karachi and conveyed his concerns about economy and rising debt profile of the country...then Isaq$ went all balerina with #MarasiMedia and #Lifafas going all JumWhoriaat... Civilian Superemcy
Now again Chief spoke..but this time in National Defence University.... the message is clear.
Weaponised Finance will be fought back tooth and nail. And everyone needs to fall in line...before he spoke...PKR fell by 4... freemaket?
All leading economists and our lovely de facto finance minister and FBR chairman were there... you know what I mean... but most interesting fact is that the conference was hosted by the one who hates IMF..and there were other Pak economists who have been speaking out against EconomicTerrorism and Weaponised Finance... you know Pindi better than I ..so you can 'read' it better than I!
PMIK and Pak State are on the same page i.e. Perservation of State is Highest Virtue.
As I hinted in my pervious post in this thread... a Financial Emergency is in the works... first phase unannounced... if it doesn't work...then .... anyhow, it all will be clear after PMIK's Washington tour.
The Hidden Hand:
Adam Smith is dead. Long live his hidden hand... it is alive and kicking... the rise in dollar value was pure EconomicTerrorism conducted by the 'freemarket' manipulators... with full cooperation of FinMin, SBP, dollar traders and private banks... this needs to be crushed.
The current chairman of SBP needs his pasport blocked..and a good chat needs to be had... he ain't going anywhere... the little stunt he pulled off in Eygpt is not going to fly in Pak.
Since IMF wants the market to determine the real value of PKR against dollar...then I say let the free market decide that the real value of PKR is between 130-135... within next two months.. and when the above mentioned measure take hold obviously freemarket shall decided that the PKR is undervalude and gradually bring it down...
Similarly... with the rise in dollar accounts, as mentioned above, will 'allow' the SBP to bring markup to lower figures... hence lowering inflation... all these measure will lower national debt. A true relief to Paks!
With housing sector to be launched soon... a kickstart of economic growth can be managed. I say CAN be managed... because for this you would need professionals and not coconut babus with their shell companies and trusts..
Mauritius is a beautiful place!
Your people and Chinese want to invest heavily in this... I say go for it.
Important in all this to see that #MarasiMedia and #Lifafas start praying... there is too much negativity...all paid-for... you shall slowly see them starting singing a different tune.
It is however imperative that the Bench no. 1 of SCP and COAS get a three years extension. No should not be taken for an answer.
PS. The Strategic Economic & Security Framework between GCC and Pak is lying dormant for so long... when/if it gets signed...would be a transformative event.
Money, old friend, is NO problem... I assure you as moneyman!
#DandayWaliSarkar is coming! And NO it is not marshal law... libtards can commit harakiri...but they wont'.
What is EconomicTerrorism. Who is doing it. How are they doing it. What does dog food have to do with it.
why did the imports fall ?? if you reduce imports by not buying capital equipment the consequences will be felt down the road
El Sidd
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Economy will now suddenly start improving as incentives will be given to the GoP to ignore Indian aggression in Kashmir valley.
People will come here and praise how Muslim Imran Khan changed Pakistan and gave poor the hope to see and witness Kashmir genocide by India by indulging in consumerist cannibalism.
People will come here and praise how Muslim Imran Khan changed Pakistan and gave poor the hope to see and witness Kashmir genocide by India by indulging in consumerist cannibalism.
TRNDSTTR
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We've already cut down imports to 45 bn dollars and we've been in a surplus for the past 5 months as well. Pakistan's imports mostly constitute edible oil, machinery and petroleum anyway so we really can't afford additional taxes on anything else unless it's luxury items. Instead of singularly focusing on imports, our chief interest should be to increase exports by stimulating new industries like olive oil and value-added items, and which also means getting rid of some protectionist policies that have made local industries complacent and unable to compete in international markets.
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The PML-N artificially controlled the exchange rate and kept the rupee overvalued at 100-110 PKR to 1 USD. This might bring short-term boons but is horrible for long term development. IK and his team realise this well.
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