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The Taliban have Kabul in their sights

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The Taliban have Kabul in their sights

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - As Pakistani politicians scramble to form a coalition government following last week's parliamentary elections, there has been a surge in violence in the Swat Valley and in other parts of North-West Frontier Province, and on Monday a senior army officer was assassinated.

The indications are that whoever takes power in Islamabad - be it the Pakistan People's Party or the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif or a combination of both - the real battle will be in Afghanistan between the Taliban and al-Qaeda-led militants and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its allies.

Army surgeon general Lieutenant General Muhammad Mushtaq Baig and seven other people were killed in a suicide attack in the



garrison city of Rawalpindi. It was the most high-profile killing since the death of former premier Benazir Bhutto in the same city last December.

Apart from the Swat Valley, there has been an increase in violence, including bomb blasts, in the North Waziristan tribal area and Bajaur and Manshera agencies, after a brief lull in the runup to the elections. More than a dozen incidents have been reported.

The trigger for this appears to have been planned joint Pakistan-NATO operations in the region against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The militants aim to open up several fronts in Pakistan to dissuade the military from cooperating with NATO.

This situation is an embarrassment to the security apparatus as it was believed that following recent countrywide operations that uncovered militant cells in Karachi, Rawalpindi, Mianwali, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan that the problem was being contained.

The regional war
Asia Times Online investigations show that the Taliban's three-pronged plan for their spring offensive comprises cutting off NATO's supply lines running from Pakistan to Afghanistan, recruiting fresh volunteers and, most importantly, the creation of a strategic corridor running from Pakistan all the way to the capital Kabul.

Since being ousted in 2001 and waging annual spring offensives, this is the first time the Taliban have come up with the idea of creating such a corridor.

The long road to Kabul
As things stand, the Taliban have established pockets of resistance all around Kabul, in addition to more settled pockets across the country. The Taliban roam around freely in the eastern province of Wardak, just 30 kilometers from Kabul.

But now the Taliban want to connect the dots, as it were, to ensure a quick and steady supply of arms and men to reinforce the pockets sufficiently for attacks on the capital.

It is envisaged that the corridor initially starts in Mohmand Agency and Bajaur Agency in Pakistan and then passes through Kunar and Nooristan provinces all the way to the Taghab Valley in Kapisa province in the northeast about 100 kilometers from the capital.

In 2006, the Taliban seized the strategic Taghab Valley - as well as the Musayab Valley to the south of Kabul - with the goal of an assault on the capital, but because of limited supply lines they were only able to maintain their positions for a few months.

This year, the Taliban aim to retake these positions, while having in place secure supply lines starting in the Pakistani tribal areas to maintain a steady stream of men and resources.

Over the past year, the Taliban have increased the number of their fighters in Mohmand Agency to 18,000 and to between 20,000 to 25,000 in Bajaur Agency. Taliban quarters believe this will provide sufficient strength to ensure operation, which is due to run from April to September.

The counter-strategy
This steady gathering of forces in the two agencies did not go unnoticed by NATO. So, with Pakistani assistance, NATO will increase military operations aimed at nipping the corridor idea in the bud.

American special ground troops have escalated their activities in Kunar and Nooristan provinces and a US base in Kunar, just three kilometers from Bajaur Agency, is now fully operational. Once the operations are in full swing, Pakistan will provide assistance through its air base in Peshawar for attacks on militant bases in the agencies.

"The operation has to start in the month of March as the Taliban have to launch their operation in April," a Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online.

However, Pakistan's plans could still be derailed. A powerful lawyers' movement is scheduled to launch protests on March 9 to pressure the new government into ousting President Pervez Musharraf. This would certainly delay any decision on Pakistan taking on the militants in a big way.

The lawyers are agitating for the reinstatement of members of the higher judiciary "who ceased to be judges" after Musharraf imposed emergency rule on November 3. Musharraf also suspended chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry last March,a move that set off country-wide protests.

Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, will be doing its best to fuel these flames to force Pakistan to back off and leave the way clear for the Taliban's corridor.
 
This guy Syed Saleem Shehzad is full of BS!

""The operation has to start in the month of March as the Taliban have to launch their operation in April," a Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online."

I am sure a Pakistani security official would disclose something so crucial as the timing of the operation to this idiot. Look up his archives at Asia Times and 90% of his predictions and reports have been way off the mark. Freaking joker! :hitwall:
 
Yes, I have the same opinion of SSS. He is absolutely clueless in most of what he writes and gets proved wrong eventually almost always. I don't know how some people rate him as credible.
 
This guy Syed Saleem Shehzad is full of BS!

""The operation has to start in the month of March as the Taliban have to launch their operation in April," a Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online."

I am sure a Pakistani security official would disclose something so crucial as the timing of the operation to this idiot. Look up his archives at Asia Times and 90% of his predictions and reports have been way off the mark. Freaking joker! :hitwall:

I have to disagree,i read his articles and his info is pretty good about the taliban.
 
I have to disagree,i read his articles and his info is pretty good about the taliban.

Post fact alwasy. Read his rantings about the 2007 Taliban spring offensive...it was just BS and all his points stood unrealized as this much touted spring offensive never materialized.

All of his input is baseless. He never ever names the sources when he writes and he only uses "unnamed sources" which is contrary to the norms of journalism. Look up any of his enlightening articles and you will never find the name of the sources whenever he is writing something controversial...its usually covered with this bs title "Asia time resources in xyz...tell us blah blah blah."

The guy was almost taken out in Afghanistan by the Taliban as he went in without any contacts...his lucky stars saved him despite all his claims of knowing the movers within the Taliban movement.

Overall BS content and information. Anybody in Pakistan can write what he writes. His only claim to credibility is that he gets the names right.
 
This guy seems to have a good take on Taliban.

I have read many of his articles.What I found was.

1)He seems to over estimate the strength of Taliban.they would do this or that but those come up to false.

2)He brings some extra sensation in the news.

3)His news about Mullah omar sacking Baitullah was denied the next day by Zabihullah Mujahid the spokesman of Mullah omar.

4)his portrays Taliban as a very big Threat.A very powerful thing.
Also never forgets to mention that whole resistance is comin from pakistan not from Afghanistan.


so my take is that he like Fox news 24/7 terrorizing people about WMDs,Alqaeda to rally them in support.

Saleem shehzad also terrorizes the people about Taliban though i dont think they are as much powerful as he says.


Even if they choke supplies to kabul.
They would send in forces form all over Afghanistan and taliban's hold would not last for more than a week.
 
Ok Mosabja. Calm down your bananas, and good luck. :)
 

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