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The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future

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The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future

August 1, 2006
Council on Foreign Relations

The conflict in Lebanon, escalation of sectarian violence in Iraq, and growing tensions between Iran and the United States have all drawn attention to the growing importance of the divide between Shias and Sunnis in shaping Middle East politics. In The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future, Council Adjunct Senior Fellow Vali Nasr offers an in-depth analysis of the various causes and forces that have contributed to this long-born political struggle for the soul of Islam and sheds light on historic moments of Shia-Sunni competition.

With the war in Iraq and a Shia majority rule there, Nasr argues that the subsequent demand for fair representation in an often Sunni-dominated Muslim world is not a localized phenomenon. However, Nasr cautions that the Shia, as a result of their recent ascendancy, are in grave danger of inciting Sunni extremism.

The Shia Revival effectively demonstrates the political and historical counterpoints to modern Iraq, asking Westerners to reconsider their assumptions about the Shia and recognize the delicate balance that must be maintained with the Sunnis. Throughout the Middle East, the presence of Sunni extremists retaliating against the Shia revival will pose the gravest danger to the United States.

Nasr voices an uncomfortable point: Westerners have too often conceived of the Middle East through a rarefied Sunni perspective. In these changing times, the Western world must learn to understand the history, motivations, and philosophy of the Shia, and how the differences between Shias and Sunnis will help shape the future of the region.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/11176/shia_revival.html

This aspect is a rather thought provoking issue for those interested in the political and strategic outcome of the Shia ascendancy in the Islamic world and proving to be more vociferous and capable to standing up to powerful forces for justice for Islam!

Maybe the philospohy is skewed that the world is against Islam, but the perception is quite popular amongst the Islamic folks.

The Sunni Arabs who considered themselves as the flag bearer of Islam have failed miserably having been repeatedly thrashed by a tiny state called Israel.

Then came Shia Iran on the scene.

Notwithstanding some noises the Ayotollah Khoemani and his cohorts failed to make an impression. However, Shia Ahmedinjad has shaken the world and is obstinately pursuing his agenda in the face of dire threats.

He is the new icon of Moslem honour so to say and he is but a Shia i.e. the minority of the two major sects of Islam.

Now, the Hezbollah, another Shia faction, has stood up to Israel.

To Shias, it is a matter of prestige that though they are a minority they have stood up to save face of Islam and restore some prestige back to Islam.

Therefore, they would rightfully demand that they be tle leaders of Islam.

That would not go well with the Sunni Arabs or evenSunnis in general.

Thus, this Lebanese campaign has widened the fracture in Islam. And coincidentally, a redrawn map of Islamic countries is doing the rounds!

A most dangerous situation has come to be.
 
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Okay what exactly does Shia hegemony mean? In the middle east Shia = Persian/ Iranian and thus bad.
 
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Possibly the author alludes to the ascendancy of Shias as a power to reckon with in the ME. Shias in large number are not only in Iran, but also in Iraq, Syria, Eastern Saudi Arabia and in the CAR.

And the way Ahmedinajid is at it, it sure can be termed to some extent as hegemonic persuasion.

He is the only leader of the Islamic world who has stood up for what he feels, even if one may not agree with him!

He is not afraid!
 
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There is absolutly never has and never will be a problem between shias and sunnis first .the problem is between westren controlled puppets who insist on creating this to legitimize there control on power.here is an intesting article about that I no this is bit off topic but here it is.
There is a widespread belief amongst political theorists that democracies do not go to war with one another. Indeed, this political paradigm acted as a prime justification for the Bush administration&#8217;s call to &#8220;democratise&#8221; the Middle East.
Since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, this theme of "democratisation" has become a major topic in American political discourse and in fact accompanies nearly all discussions of the Arab-Muslim world and America&#8217;s so-called role in it.
The Bush administration&#8217;s response to the current conflict in southern Lebanon, reveals the hypocrisy and true ideology of this administration in aiming at provoking sectarian tension in the region.
Western analysts continue to discuss an alleged "historic" hostility between Sunni and Shia in the region. Dexter Filkins, an Iraq based New York Times journalist claimed in a recent radio interview that the Sunni in Iraq have now &#8220;realised that the Shia are their true enemy, not the Americans.&#8221;

But the fact is that this statement contradicts history, Iraq Sunni and Shia have been living together for centuries. Modern history books are free from any reference to war between them, but not until the US-led invasion of Iraq.
"They already chose Israel since long long time ago! Just in case if someone didn't know. It is about us now, who have to choose between US or our dignity."
Martin Peretz claims that the most virulent social conflict in Middle Eastern history "is the Sunni hatred of the Shia, and vice versa," another groundless claim seems to suggest that Muslims somehow cause more harm to one another than the illegal occupations of their land. Western analysts and journalists newfound enthusiasm for sectarian history in the Muslim world needs to be contextualised.
The danger in baseless claims made by western journalists, become even greater when policy makers and American voters begin to rely on them to assess appropriate action in the Muslim and Arab regions.
It is remarkable that unpopular and unelected rulers, kings and occupiers are the only ones obsessed by alleged sectarian tensions in the region. King Abdullah II of Jordan, a close US ally had warned the west of the supposedly dangerous "Shia crescent" stretching from Iran, moving through Iraq, Syria and ending in Southern Lebanon.
Many in the west, including influential pro-Zionist journalists like Thomas Friedman, are praising Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia&#8212;states that Nicholas Blanford described as "western friendly Sunni-led Arab states."

George Bush has always been keen to invite the Saudis to the White House for a smile laden photo session with a president who is a frequent user of the term "free world".
This insistence on sectarianism revolves around a dangerous twist. Western journalists have continued to suggest that the US presence in Iraq is needed in order to prevent civil war, an idea that many Americans believe in.
Needless to say, the American presence has done nothing other than
perpetuate civil tensions in the country. Arab kings are freighting their peoples with a false sectarian threat, further consolidating their forceful hold on power.
While regimes like the Saudis are now ordering huge quantities of weapons from the west in order to protect themselves from an assumed sectarian threat posed by Iran.
Western journalists and analysts repeating and confirming the existence of sectarian tension in the Middle East are actually justifying an American occupation of great parts of the region, instigate a local arms race where the west is the prime benefactor and protect tyrants' grip on power and monarchies who rule by fear.
The fact that the west is arming the un-elected regime in Saudi Arabia against the elected regime in Iran serves as an emphatic indicator of American wishes in the region.
It seems that the mounting tensions of Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon, have placed too much stress on the American fa&#231;ade of freedom and democracy and have revealed the true nature of American policy behind it.
American policy in the Middle East has two major components: First, the Bush administration has an absolute disdain for true democracy in the Middle East and, secondly, this administration is in great need for civil war throughout the entire region.
These observations may appear bold to western reader&#8212;it is a common perception amongst Arab and Muslim readers*&#8212;when we examine US behaviour, however, it becomes difficult to conclude otherwise.
Firstly, the major targets of US criticism and Israeli aggression in the current crises&#8212;Hamas and Hezbollah are widely popular resistance groups who have democratically elected representative.
President Ahmednijad of Iran, who came to office elected by Iranian people himself, is a target of international criticism because of his hard stance against Israel.
Yet Mr. Bush who often says he is a leader of a state belongs to the "free world" supports unelected rulers in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. The Bush administration&#8217;s cosy relationship with those rulers should serve as fair warning to green eared reformers in the Arab and Muslim world who seek out this administration&#8217;s alliance in the hope for political change.
Furthermore, analyzing US policy in this regard should shed some light on the recent political history of Iraq and help explain why events have taken that turn in that country.
These Arab leaders have justified their unpopular alliance with the United States by invoking sectarianism, while the US has justified its alliance with kings and dictators in the name of "protecting" the mainly Sunni Muslim world against alleged sectarian threat posed by Iran and Hezbollah who are Shia Muslims.
Let us be clear&#8212;this threat cannot be detected amongst the Arab public, it exists largely as an abstract idea that conveniently serves those in power.
When one takes a step back and looks at the broad picture of the current conflict it becomes apparently and ironically clear that the elected officials and regimes of the Muslim world are the targets of American and Israeli hostility.
On one hand we have Iranians, Hamas, and Hezbollah, all of whom were brought to power through an electoral process to greater or lesser degrees. In the case of Hamas and the regime of Ahmadinejad in Iran, we have majority elected governments, in the case of Hezbollah we have a popular organisation elected as a part of a government.
On the other hand we have Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, a couple of un-elected kings and an unelected ruler standing side by side with the United States, the supposed champion of democracy in the region, acquiescing in Israeli aggression.
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, has described the current conflict as the "birth pangs" of a new Middle East, but it seems this is a Middle East that does not represent the wishes of the people.
As I have mentioned, if anyone is curious about Rice&#8217;s vision of a new Middle East, you need look no further than Iraq, where the US encouraged a sectarian election and Iraqi citizens have become obsessed by Sunni and Shia affairs to the extent they have forgotten that their land remains illegally occupied.
While western analysts are describing Hezbollah as merely an extension of Iran, and therefore "Shia interests," the people of Cairo and Amman, predominantly "Sunni cities" took to the streets carrying pictures of Hasan Nasrallah the Shia Arab leader, defying the "Sunni-Shia rift," described by Peretz.
Most western observers have conveniently ignored widespread Sunni support for Hezbollah throughout the Arab and Muslim world. In Iraq the US employed a formula of sectarianism in order to entrench itself all the more deeply into Iraqi politics; we now find this formula being extrapolated across the greater Muslim world.
Sunni in the Arab world are to forget the constant aggression of Israel against the Arab peoples and rely on the United States to "protect" them from the Shia, while the Shia in Iraq are being convinced they need the US to protect them from the Sunni.
Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya has perhaps put it all in perspective by commenting on the issue of a "new" Middle East. He observes that what the Americans mean by "change" in the Middle East is an end to legitimate resistance against illegal and immoral occupation and Muslim subordination to American and Israeli domination.

His observations seem well justified since the NYT has recently reported that the US is rushing arms to Israel. We must remember, these missiles are meant to bomb Lebanon, a nation with a democratically elected government (of which members of Hezbollah are represented). So much for the theory that democracies do not go to war with one another.

Laith Saud is an Iraqi academic researcher and lecturer in the United States.


ITS CALLED DIVIDE AND RULE BRITISH idea.:read:
 
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Interesting commentary.

However, what one sees on the ground in Iraq wherein the Shias are targeted in Baghdad and the Sunnis by the Iraqi Police death squads does indicate that the author is trying to push the realities under the carpet.

Of course, Americans are not liked. That is not a revelation that requires rocket science.

There has always been the historical divide, no matter what the author states. Even in India there have been gunfights and killings during Moharrum but now fortunately, the govt enforces strict control and so while there is no gunfights, there is merely the tension.

One just cannot delude and have false notions that all is well. All is not well. Even in Pakistan, there are sectarian violence.

The reality must be seen, accepted and a realistic solution enforced.

One must have courage to see the reality.
 
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Excellent response brother Cheetah786.

When one takes a step back and looks at the broad picture of the current conflict it becomes apparently and ironically clear that the elected officials and regimes of the Muslim world are the targets of American and Israeli hostility.
...

On the other hand we have Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, a couple of un-elected kings and an unelected ruler standing side by side with the United States, the supposed champion of democracy in the region, acquiescing in Israeli aggression.

One just cannot delude and have false notions that all is well. All is not well. Even in Pakistan, there are sectarian violence.

Yes unfortunately as we saw with the killing of Allamah Turabi, and remember he was martyred after coming home from an anti-israeli demonstration.

While western analysts are describing Hezbollah as merely an extension of Iran, and therefore "Shia interests," the people of Cairo and Amman, predominantly "Sunni cities" took to the streets carrying pictures of Hasan Nasrallah the Shia Arab leader, defying the "Sunni-Shia rift," described by Peretz.

I wonder what salim's intentions were in starting this thread, seems like Peretz and salim here have something in common: Fitnah.

Notwithstanding some noises the Ayotollah Khoemani and his cohorts failed to make an impression.

Spell his name properly at least, and your ignorance is quite baffling. The Revolution sent a chill across the entire corrupt world, which is why the entire arab world created by the west supported an made way for arms transfer to iraq against its war against Iran.

An interesting fact recently revealed that Hizbullah during the 80's had 3 christian suicide bombers, 20 communist and only 8 of them were staunch mo'mins. http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/story/0,,1838215,00.html

As br. Cheetah said, The British and by products of their education system still stand by their divide and rule it seems on both sides of the border. Too many ignorant war mongers spread false information and try to build up a case for sectarian violence in the future. Let's not forget that one of the players in a "shia crescent" is sunni Syria. This is a case of nations united against the western hegemony.

Here is a beautiful article by late Sheikh Ahmed Deedat on Iran (may Allah reward him with paradise).

http://www.inminds.co.uk/unity.html

Let us be clear&#8212;this threat cannot be detected amongst the Arab public, it exists largely as an abstract idea that conveniently serves those in power.
 
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What is Fitnah?

I found this article while surfing and I had just seen a programme which was analysing the latest Lebanon conflict.

It came down to the same stuff that the article was propounding and they had a tongue in cheek praise for the Hezbollah and its effect on the Islamic world and the ME in particular.

There was a discussion on how the Shia people has wrested the mantle from the Arab Sunnis and then they went on to the territorial expanse of what was under Shias and what was under Sunnis in the Islamic world including ex Soviet countries.

The final analysis was that the Shia under Iran was getting to becoming supreme in the Islamic world and that was not to the liking of the Arab Sunni nations, majority of which were under US tutelage.

Therefore, I thought it worth the while to put it here to hear from you all so that not only would I have benefited through the experts on TV but also what the common Muslim has to say about it.
 
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Averr&#246;es Salim is not "muslim" so he dosnt knows what "Fitnah" means
 
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Fitnah is arabic word for spreading mischeif...
 
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Well that is an interesting observation.

Thank you all. I learnt a new word.
 
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haha experts on TV? :D get a grip of yourself man. you've been acting as if your an authority on the subject when your posts are filled with inaccuracies and shere propaganda.
 
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Mr salim i have spent 20 years of my life living in karachi hyderabad.what i remmeber from that was sunnis respecting the muharram poccessions.and giving out niaz. i dont remmeber people standing on the roof shooting at shias or sunnis.what i do have a memory of is people like u making a big deal out of little things starting to say one thing to one and another to the other sect there is always been people like u that have counted on the people that will do things before think it through.but thank GOD almighty most people in pakistan understand that and can see right through it.only purpose for u to start this is to creat tension sit back and enjoy.the only thing it proves like the rest of people is sunnis and shias dont have a problem never have never will.DIVIDE AND RULE IS a old idea i suggest give it up.
 
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Fitnah's a big mama sin/mischief/wrong deed.

I learnt it a few years ago while reading up on the Islamic literature on the end of days, which is huge and detailed.
 
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Well, there is no doubt I am no authority, but then neither are you two.

It is true that you are of the Islamic faith, but then it is not that I am totally unlearned on the subject.

It is not my intention to ruffle feathers.

However, I had seen a nice advice on a forum - it read "Attack the Message and not the Messenger".

I sure would love to know the errors in the article and what the experts had to say. Well, there is no end of experts in this world, including both of you as one concludes from the tone and tenor of your posts. But then what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander!

Do point out the errors in the article. I did not write it. And ever since the Hezbollah has held up the so called mighty Israeli Army, this has become quite a talking point and hence my interest. I sure would like to believe that the articles and others are wrong since it has serious manifestations in my country also.

As you love your country, so do I. But I am not that bigoted!

Lastly, what I saw in India surely you could not have seen. So do not cloud your mind with preconceived notions. Open up your eyes and face reality.

I prefer not to go into delusions. I rather see things as it is and on ground. Not just listen to prattle. That is why I have posted it so that I realise what the ground realities are from posters of a country that is Islamic.

In case, it upsets you all, the thread can be removed.
 
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Shia/Sunni rivalry is nothing new and goes back a thousand years. They didnot start killing each other in Pakistan until Zia's bigoted regime. I grew up in Punjab and was amazed to see SSP/Lashkar targeting Shia's. ( SSP didnot exist until1985) Not that Shia's fare any better in retaliation.

Yes it is a true that unlike the orthodox Sunni regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, Hizbullah have fared better. There are however forces at work who would ensure that Shia /Sunni divide remains. The start would be the division of Iraq on sectarian grounds. Ironically Kurds are Sunnis too but they want a seperate homeland.

Sunni groups are playing in the hands of the enemies of Islam by shooting at Shia processions from the rooftop in Baghdad.There are so many diverging forces at work. Arab verses non Arab. Shias verses Sunnis. Within Sunnis, the Wahabi movement which targeted the Ottomon Turks; fellow Sunnis but of Hanafi persuasion. In my opinion, foremost need of the time is "Ijtehad" wherby all the Ulemas sit to gether and agree on a compromise. It is easier said than done.

Just in case I ruffle some feathers. I am no religious scholar, just that Islamic history is my passion. And I find the history is full of lack of muslim unity in the face of opposition. Two stark examples are Ismaili's (Shias)
of Egypt denied support to the Zangis of Syria during the first crusade and similar action by Abbassi Caliph of Baghdad who refused to help Khwarizm Shah of Iran against the Mongols because the ruling dynasty was of Shia sect.
 
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