OPINION
The Philippines' Greatest Mistake About China
by MARIO ALVARO LIMOS | 10 HOURS AGO
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Four years ago, the Philippines made a very unconventional gamble: It decided to abandon its traditional allies and made a very publicized pivot to China.
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For many observers, the move was initially seen as a masterstroke: Leveraging the rivalry between the two superpowers, the Philippines was suddenly in the international spotlight, as the U.S. attempted to win it back with soft power. But America’s oldest Asian ally had decidedly fallen out of its orbit and into its rival’s arms.
In the last four years, the Philippines has kowtowed to China in the face of issues surrounding the West Philippine Sea. Little has been done to assert the country’s sovereign rights in its own waters.
In 2019, the most violent incident occurred in the West Philippine Sea: A Chinese ship rammed a Filipino fishing boat in Reed Bank, a shoal within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. The Philippines, afraid to displease China, merely shrugged off the incident. “I’m sorry but that’s how it is,” President Rodrigo Duterte told the Filipino fishermen, who were rescued not by China or the Philippine Coast Guard, but by Vietnamese fishermen who witnessed the attack.
A Chinese Coast Guard Ship
Throughout his presidency, Duterte has made four trips to China, the latest was in April 2019. The trips were seen as opportunities to secure investments for the Philippines. Mere months after Duterte took office, the Philippines trumpeted China’s pledges, which are now worth P1 trillion. But as Duterte nears the end of his presidency, most of China’s promises have not materialized.
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Four years on, it seems the gamble has not paid off. The belief in not displeasing China in exchange for investments was an amateur mistake of someone with a poor grasp on Chinese foreign policy.
Until now, the Philippines has yet to receive the much-awaited COVID-19 vaccines from China, and has not even closed a deal with the Chinese as of this writing.
In contrast, Indonesia, which has taken a very strong stance against China on its sea disputes and even sunk a number of confiscated Chinese vessels, has already received 1.2 million initial doses of the vaccine delivered from China last week. Another 1.8 million doses are going to be delivered in January.
Where did the Philippines go wrong in its pivot to China?
“Chinese statecraft has contempt for the weak and the naive,” political analyst Richard Heydarian tells Esquire Philippines. “But China grudgingly respects those with strategic dignity and courage.”
It is ironic how the Philippines saw a significant decrease in Chinese investments in the last four years compared to the previous administration, which successfully took China to court and won.
“People forget that the past administration, which had the audacity to take China to international court and liken their imperial tendencies to those of Nazi Germany, oversaw an increase in Chinese investments,” said Heydarian. “There was no war, skirmishes, or any form of aggression after we filed the arbitration case.”
Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario shares the same opinion. “China has continued to move forward with its unlawful agenda. Why? Because we allow them to do so,” he told CNN Philippines. Retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who was one of the legal luminaries who laid the groundwork for the Philippines’ case against China, agrees. “Our problem today is that our own government simply doesn't want to displease China,” said Carpio.
Unfortunately, the Philippines burned its most valuable trump card when it decided not to enforce the 2016 ruling in favor of the Philippines. The Philippines was too eager to give up leverage without ensuring strategic reciprocity.
Why China snubbed the Philippines
PHOTO BY PCOO/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS. PCOO/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
Utang na loob (debt of gratitude) is a very Filipino concept that Duterte thought would work on China. Utang na loob has been a tenet of this administration, from appointing people to key positions in government to refusing to punish erring officials.
Despite the Philippines’ trumpeted pivot to China, its undignified kowtowing did not produce as many visible results in investments or grants. The lesson, which government leaders seemed to have learned late into night, is that China does not reward favorable foreign policy toward it. It does not think in terms of utang na loob, but in terms of self-interest, like any mature state would.
"We haven't seen a single major concession from China on the West Philippine Sea. And then, China snubbed the Philippines for Indonesia, a country that has taken a much tougher stance against Beijing over maritime disputes, for the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines," said Heydarian.
The Philippines' warm approach toward China did not pay off because China did not need to bargain anything for it. We gave our leverage away for free.
More important, the Chinese Communist Party, which thinks in terms of centuries, knows this sudden shift in foreign policy is not sustainable and will likely end once Duterte steps down from office.
The Philippines has a very long history of standing up to China (while gaining from it), and this has dazzled the international community to a great extent. It is up to the next batch of leaders to correct the misguided pivot to China and assert what is just and equitable for the sake of Filipinos.
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Indonesia is a perfect case in which you could have all the benefits of having a burgeoning trade with China while not kowtowing with China when it comes to sovereignity.
Kowtowing with China just don't work.
@maverick1977
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