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The next 20 years will define Bangladesh's position in world politics
Assessing where Bangladesh will be in international politics in 2041
MAHMUD HOSSAIN OPU
Tonmoy Chowdhury
June 7, 2022 11:06 AM
Since independence, Bangladesh has achieved miracles in the last 50 years. The country has transformed from a “basket case” to a donor state within four decades.
Currently, Bangladesh is in the process of its LDC graduation. If everything goes well, the country will graduate into a developing country by 2026. However, Bangladesh still has miles to go before it sleeps.
The government has devised its strategies to become a developed one by 2041, known as Vision 2041. By 2041, if Bangladesh's trajectory remains upward, it would also transform Bangladesh into a significant actor in international politics.
So, where will Bangladesh find itself in global politics in 2041? What are the potentials for Bangladesh to emerge as a significant actor in international politics? Let's use existing evidence, strategies, plans, and a bit of our imagination to create a picture of Bangladesh in global politics by 2041.
Economic potentials
In the year 2041, Bangladesh will have significant economic strength. According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC), the country can become the 28th largest economy by 2030 and has the potential to become the 23rd largest by 2050. Currently, Bangladesh is the 41st largest economy in the world. So, by 2041, Bangladesh will have a significant position in the global economic order. Already, the country has progressed miraculously.
The massive infrastructural “push,” increasing export, and development projects, have borne fruits. Bangladesh has emerged as a “fast-growing economy and is labelled a “frontier five economy.” It has also emerged as a donor state by providing currency swap to Sri Lanka and debt relief to Sudan. If the economy constantly grows as projected, Bangladesh will significantly contribute to development cooperation in the world by 2041. It will also be a token of gratitude that the world once showed to “war-torn” Bangladesh in the 1970s.
Military modernization
Apart from the economy, Bangladesh is also likely to emerge as a “Bastion” at the Bay of Bengal with a modern, strong, and dynamic military. Bangladesh is already in the process of modernizing its military through “Forces Goal-2030.” Through this program, Bangladesh aims to transform its armed forces into technologically advanced forces with both offensive and defensive capabilities. This modernization program will surely empower Bangladesh in “Hard Power” politics by ensuring its national security.
Bangladesh is regularly purchasing advanced equipment and hardware. The country has already included its first two submarines and is buying the latest fighter planes. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s latest visit to France included buying Rafale fighter jets. The country is also increasing its defense budget. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2010-11, the defense budget was $1.62 billion, which rose to $4.5 billion by FY2021-22.
If the trajectory remains upward, Bangladesh will emerge as an important military power in regional and global politics. The country will be an established “Middle Power” by 2041.
Contribution to global peace and knowledge
As the economy is booming and security is tightening, Bangladesh will also contribute to knowledge and peace in the world in the coming days. Over the last two decades, thousands of Bangladeshis have been going abroad to study and work worldwide.
Diaspora communities are flourishing, becoming an essential part of societies. They are contributing to global knowledgescape and promoting multicultural values. Besides contributing to the host country's economy, brilliant minds also work in numerous research labs and spread their knowledge in universities.
Bangladesh's contribution will surely increase in this aspect in the coming days. And these developments will boost Bangladesh's “soft power” in global politics.
Apart from that, Bangladesh will also contribute to global peace more than ever in the future. Bangladesh is already hosting the Rohingya refugees on humanitarian grounds. We can hope that the situation in Myanmar will lift quickly, and the crisis will be solved in the coming days with the effort of global communities.
Again, the country is already participating actively in the United Nations' Peacekeeping Operation (UNPKO). Our “men in blue helmets” are risking their lives to uphold global peace. It is worth mentioning that Bangladesh is one of the largest troop contributors to UNPKO. By 2041, Bangladesh's contribution will surely increase as it will have a modern military.
Hopefully, Bangladesh will formulate its National Policy on Peacekeeping and engage in the post-conflict reconstruction phase in 2041.
As Bangladesh will have a significant position in economic and military power order, it will emerge as a significant actor in world politics by 2041. It will have a stronger voice and extensive leadership role, especially in development cooperation and global peace. Thanks to its balancing policy and Bangabandhu’s immortal dictum, “Friendship towards all and malice to none,” the country will also find its allies in every corner of the world.
The path for our national aspiration is laid thanks to our long-term strategies such as Vision 2041 and Forces Goal 2030. The prime minister's leadership and political philosophy have also played a steering role.
But we must remember that the path will not be as easy as it sounds. Keeping the economy stable is a prerequisite amid this ongoing global “debt shock.” The country must address the growing inequality and strengthen its institutions for a better future. And, Bangladesh must have a clear roadmap to avoid the “middle-income trap” after the LDC graduation. Lastly, it must remain cautious amid the Quad-China rivalry.
The next 20 years will define Bangladesh's position in world politics. So it will be crucial for Bangladesh to administer itself efficiently. We need future leaders with visions and doctrines to guide the country to its aspiration, just like the predecessors and the current ones.
Amid many negatives, Bangladesh has made remarkable advances. And if the trajectory remains upward, we will emerge as one of the respectable nations of the world in the next 20 years with a stronger voice, extensive leadership, and more global responsibilities on our shoulders.
Tonmoy Chowdhury is a Security Affairs Analyst. Email: ctonmoy555@gmail.com.
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