The implication of India's failed narrative - US think tank's analysis

[PradoTLC]

PAF shot down two Indian aircrafts inside Pakistani airspace on Feb 27. — ISPR/File

WASHINGTON: India’s inability to prove its claims of bringing down a Pakistani plane and hitting terrorist targets in Balakot could have “some deleterious political implications”, warns a US analyst.

The analyst — Michael Kugelman — is associated with the Woodrow Wilson Centre, Washington, which has released a set of documents covering the 2019 India-Pakistan situation.

In an introductory note, the Washington-based think-tank warned that the recent India-Pakistan conflict alarmed the world because each of the two nuclear-armed states demonstrated its readiness to climb up the escalation ladder during this crisis.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD


Mr Kugelman’s warning about the harmful implications of India’s inability to prove its claims came hours before Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi made a startling revelation that New Delhi was planning more military action against Pakistan later this month.

“There is now compelling evidence that badly undercuts two prime Indian assertions from its standoff with Pakistan: India hit terrorist targets in Balakot and it shot down a Pakistani jet,” he wrote in his tweet.

“There could be some deleterious political implications there, just days before the election.”

Mr Kugelman also refers to a tweet by Christopher Clary, an assistant professor of political science at The State University of New York, who wrote:

“Some people say the US knows it lost an F-16 but can’t admit it for commercial/pride reasons. Let me just say that Pakistan has many enemies in the US bureaucracy and even more on the (Capitol) Hill, and I think if Pakistan lost an F-16 they would gleefully leak it.”

“Agree completely,” Mr Kugelman commented. “Had a Pakistani F-16 really been shot down, someone in the US government would have been happy to leak/admit it.”

He also referred to an assertion by an Indian journalist that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has something he will use right before voting”.

Mr Kugelman observed that “the optics of Balakot and its aftermath have been quite suboptimal for New Delhi”.

Commenting on an Indian media report that Pakistan had borrowed F-16s from Jordan to hide its loss, Prof Clary suggested that it’s unlikely “Jordan would endanger $1.275bn in US aid per year to illicitly sell Pakistan an extra F-16” and nobody would notice it.

The debate was triggered by a report this week on the site of the Foreign Policy magazine, which rejected India’s claim that it shot a Pakistani F-16 aircraft on Feb 27, a day after the Indian Air Force bombed an alleged terrorist site in Balakot, KP.

In the documents released by the Woodrow Wilson Centre, US scholars say that the chances of another flare-up between India and Pakistan were high.

“Lot depends on what happens in India’s elections. If the ruling party is re-elected, I think things will just get worse,” said one of the experts. The next flare-up, he warned, “could be worse as each side has demonstrated it is happy to climb up the escalation ladder”.

Mr Kugelman warned that another terrorist attack inside India could “risk a very destructive Indian response, if that happens then you have to start worrying about nuclear scenarios”.
Aaron David Miller, another Woodrow Wilson scholar, referred to Henry Kissinger’s famous quip that the Israelis have no foreign policy, only domestic politics. “And I am inclined to believe that on Kashmir, that may well pertain to both India and Pakistan as well,” he said.

One of the papers quoted Nirupama Rao, a former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to the US, as telling the Centre’s scholars that most Indians see their country as a victim of terrorism and “no government in India can go against this tide of popular opinion that is also fanned by a nationalistic media”.

Salman Bashir, a former Pakistani foreign secretary, however, warned against using force to resolve disputes. “The use of force can only aggravate the situation, he said, adding that “there’s a sense in Pakistan that our desire for peace must not be misconstrued as weakness”.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2019

https://www.dawn.com/news/1474645/india ... plications

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Some thinktank...

Why does an American thinktank third rate analysis has more value than local Pak one?

Heck.... have read far better, thorough and in-depth analyses here on PDF than these thinktankers.

PDF is seriously undervaluded!

 

[War Thunder]

Some thinktank...

Why does an American thinktank third rate analysis has more value than local Pak one?

Heck.... have read far better, thorough and in-depth analyses here on PDF than these thinktankers.

PDF is seriously undervaluded!

It's not the analysis. It's the analysis over the analysis by the reporter.

 

[WarKa DaNG]

Stop this bloody crap, we shot down 2 indian jets, captured abhi none done,safely returned him to india, india says we shot down a ef soola, US counts says all PAF ef soolas are accounted for.
Now we should move on till when we will be bragging about it

 

[PradoTLC]

Some thinktank...

Why does an American thinktank third rate analysis has more value than local Pak one?

Heck.... have read far better, thorough and in-depth analyses here on PDF than these thinktankers.

PDF is seriously undervaluded!

oh this is just to piss of the indians...

as every western source has irked the indians

 

[Mrc]

if that happens then you have to start worrying about nuclear scenarios”.

I agree with this part

 

[Liquidmetal]

“Some people say the US knows it lost an F-16 but can’t admit it for commercial/pride reasons. Let me just say that Pakistan has many enemies in the US bureaucracy and even more on the (Capitol) Hill, and I think if Pakistan lost an F-16 they would gleefully leak it.”

“Agree completely,” Mr Kugelman commented. “Had a Pakistani F-16 really been shot down, someone in the US government would have been happy to leak/admit it.”

This is the bit butt-hurt bhartis (this has a certain ring to it maybe this is what they should be known as BHBs (butt-hurt bhartis) from now on) cannot fathom.

 

[PradoTLC]

“Some people say the US knows it lost an F-16 but can’t admit it for commercial/pride reasons. Let me just say that Pakistan has many enemies in the US bureaucracy and even more on the (Capitol) Hill, and I think if Pakistan lost an F-16 they would gleefully leak it.”

“Agree completely,” Mr Kugelman commented. “Had a Pakistani F-16 really been shot down, someone in the US government would have been happy to leak/admit it.”

This is the bit butt-hurt bhartis (this has a certain ring to it maybe this is what they should be known as BHBs (butt-hurt bhartis) from now on) cannot fathom.

butt hurt?

more like we handed their arse on a plate.

 

[Riz]

And this is how india bagged 4 victories in the past . This will be their 5th one...

 

[alphibeti]

PAF shot down two Indian aircrafts inside Pakistani airspace on Feb 27. — ISPR/File

WASHINGTON: India’s inability to prove its claims of bringing down a Pakistani plane and hitting terrorist targets in Balakot could have “some deleterious political implications”, warns a US analyst.

The analyst — Michael Kugelman — is associated with the Woodrow Wilson Centre, Washington, which has released a set of documents covering the 2019 India-Pakistan situation.

In an introductory note, the Washington-based think-tank warned that the recent India-Pakistan conflict alarmed the world because each of the two nuclear-armed states demonstrated its readiness to climb up the escalation ladder during this crisis.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD


Mr Kugelman’s warning about the harmful implications of India’s inability to prove its claims came hours before Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi made a startling revelation that New Delhi was planning more military action against Pakistan later this month.

“There is now compelling evidence that badly undercuts two prime Indian assertions from its standoff with Pakistan: India hit terrorist targets in Balakot and it shot down a Pakistani jet,” he wrote in his tweet.

“There could be some deleterious political implications there, just days before the election.”

Mr Kugelman also refers to a tweet by Christopher Clary, an assistant professor of political science at The State University of New York, who wrote:

“Some people say the US knows it lost an F-16 but can’t admit it for commercial/pride reasons. Let me just say that Pakistan has many enemies in the US bureaucracy and even more on the (Capitol) Hill, and I think if Pakistan lost an F-16 they would gleefully leak it.”

“Agree completely,” Mr Kugelman commented. “Had a Pakistani F-16 really been shot down, someone in the US government would have been happy to leak/admit it.”

He also referred to an assertion by an Indian journalist that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has something he will use right before voting”.

Mr Kugelman observed that “the optics of Balakot and its aftermath have been quite suboptimal for New Delhi”.

Commenting on an Indian media report that Pakistan had borrowed F-16s from Jordan to hide its loss, Prof Clary suggested that it’s unlikely “Jordan would endanger $1.275bn in US aid per year to illicitly sell Pakistan an extra F-16” and nobody would notice it.

The debate was triggered by a report this week on the site of the Foreign Policy magazine, which rejected India’s claim that it shot a Pakistani F-16 aircraft on Feb 27, a day after the Indian Air Force bombed an alleged terrorist site in Balakot, KP.

In the documents released by the Woodrow Wilson Centre, US scholars say that the chances of another flare-up between India and Pakistan were high.

“Lot depends on what happens in India’s elections. If the ruling party is re-elected, I think things will just get worse,” said one of the experts. The next flare-up, he warned, “could be worse as each side has demonstrated it is happy to climb up the escalation ladder”.

Mr Kugelman warned that another terrorist attack inside India could “risk a very destructive Indian response, if that happens then you have to start worrying about nuclear scenarios”.
Aaron David Miller, another Woodrow Wilson scholar, referred to Henry Kissinger’s famous quip that the Israelis have no foreign policy, only domestic politics. “And I am inclined to believe that on Kashmir, that may well pertain to both India and Pakistan as well,” he said.

One of the papers quoted Nirupama Rao, a former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to the US, as telling the Centre’s scholars that most Indians see their country as a victim of terrorism and “no government in India can go against this tide of popular opinion that is also fanned by a nationalistic media”.

Salman Bashir, a former Pakistani foreign secretary, however, warned against using force to resolve disputes. “The use of force can only aggravate the situation, he said, adding that “there’s a sense in Pakistan that our desire for peace must not be misconstrued as weakness”.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2019

https://www.dawn.com/news/1474645/india ... plications

"...warned that the recent India-Pakistan conflict alarmed the world because each of the two nuclear-armed states demonstrated its readiness to climb up the escalation ladder during this crisis."
Partially true. Modi did that out of sheer stupidity. He though India has earlier staged a drama of surgical strike across the LoC and Pakistan didn't effectively respond to that aggression. Even though the reasons for Pak's timid reaction were different, Modi took that as Pak's weakness and its inability to respond. Emboldened by that, he this time decided to launch a real strike in proper Pakistan (raids across LoC are not very unusual for both sides) that forced Pakistan to feel compelled respond Indian aggression in a no uncertain way. So, Pakistan punished Modi and his gang of sick-minded Hindu terrorists on the morning of 27/2 by enforcing a complete air superiority over the Indian occupied J&K, downing a number of IAF planes, and hitting six ground targets (in proximity) including the site of a high level meeting being chaired by Indian army chief. Yes, Pakistan was forced to climb the escalation ladder for the benefit of regional peace and strategic stability. Lest brainless Indians deem Pakistan not responding as their strategic regional dominance based on a false impression of their military superiority. Pakistan has corrected and cleared the strategic regional picture by injecting some sense in Indian head by kicking its azz.

 

[untitled]

He also referred to an assertion by an Indian journalist that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has something he will use right before voting”.

What's he referring to?

 

[Secret Service]

I want DG ISPR to arrange another media press conference and kill this issue.

 

[Liquidmetal]

butt hurt?

more like we handed their arse on a plate.

hahahaha LOL

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Someone made a valid point in this forum that when Israeli top of line F16I sofa was brought down well within Isreali space by ancient Syrian air defence, that event was not hushed under the carpet, no issue raised for sales or marketing despite everyone knowing the nature of Israeli and American relations.

Why these fktards in east think America will brush Pakistani loses under the carpet?.for what? They hate our guts. America is India strategic ally for crying it loud!

 

[GumNaam]

this article by pro-isreali think tank written by a staunch, militant zionist kugelman cannot be taken lightly. YES, it DOES indicate that india achieved ZILCH...NOTHING! but it indicates something else...it is an indirect signal to india that its masters are NOT buying the crap the indians are barfing and that india needs to prove itself militarily if it wants to continue to get belly rubs from washington! after all, america has been investing in india and raising it to be the "bull in the CHINA shop" but Feb 26th, Feb 27th and the following days proved india to be a female poodle with pink ribbons running for her life after repeatedly getting kicked in her arse. I did NOT use word CHINA as a figure of speech.

this is an indirect order to india that if you can't even make a dent in a country 1/6th your size, how the hell will you handle CHINA'S military? and if you can't, then why the hell should we bother to invest any further in you.

india just got told to prove her worth or go back to the day days of begging.

I'm taking this article very seriously. Now I KNOW something is gonna happen since india wants to remain as washington's pet bull bred for fighting.

PAKISTAN MUST REMAIN PREPARED AND FULLY VIGILANT TO RESPOND WITH A FATAL BLOW TO india.