Mangus Ortus Novem
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I would like introduce the generations of warfare, mainly focusing in 5th Generation Warfare. We have heard the terms like 5th Generation aircraft, even up coming Cellular technology 5th Gen or 5G, but most of us don't know 5th Generation warfare and that it could be another name for Hybrid Warfare.
Warfare generations can be based on the deployment of weapons and then modernization of weapons leading up to different generation of warfare.
1st Generation Warfare : The first generation of modern warfare was intended to create a straightforward and orderly means of waging war. The increased accuracy and speed of the rifled musket and the breech-loader marks the end of first generation warfare; the concept of vast lines of soldiers meeting face to face became impractical due to the heavy casualties that could be sustained. Because these technologies were adopted gradually throughout the Americas and Europe, the exact end of the first generation of modern warfare depends on the region, but all world powers had moved on by the latter half of the 19th century.
2nd Generation Warfare : The contributions of the second generation were responses to technological development. The second generation saw the rise of trench warfare, artillery support, more advanced reconnaissance techniques, extensive use of camouflage uniforms, radio communications, and fire team maneuvers.
3rd Generation Warfare : The use of blitzkrieg during the German invasion of France first demonstrated the power of speed and maneuverability over static artillery positions and trench defenses. Through the use of tanks, mechanized infantry, and close air support, the Germans were able to quickly break through linear defenses and capture the rear. The contributions of the third generation were based on the concept of overcoming technological disadvantage through the use of clever strategy. As linear fighting came to an end, new ways of moving faster began to appear.
4th Generation Warfare : Fourth generation warfare is defined as conflicts which are complex and long term wars. They could involve Terrorism as a tactic. A non-national or transnational base – highly decentralized - direct attack on the enemy's core ideals. Highly sophisticated psychological warfare, especially through media manipulation and legalities of law. All available pressures are used – political, economic, social and military. It can occur as low intensity conflict, involving actors from all networks where Non-combatants become tactical dilemmas especially in areas where insurgency and guerrilla tactics are used.
5th Generation Warfare and Hybrid Warfare
5GW has confronted Pakistan with an evolving strategic paradigm. Some of the affected nations could also be waging a fight against terrorists and must first confront this most potent and real threat of terrorism. It has been called as a new type of war, where the enemy is not a defined entity but a movement and as a war of ideas against extremism and without any borders. War has become is a social institution that evolves along with changes in societies, political entities and technologies. If a nation is to maintain its security, it must also look beyond the war on terror and prepare itself for the ascension of 5GW. This kind of unrestricted warfare demands a totally new thinking and approach, different from the perspective of military preparedness for past wars and embracing the perspective of national preparedness for the evolving spectrum of future forms of conflicts.
Issues Haunting Pakistan
Pakistan has faced a media war, along with other manifestations of dangers that surround it. Use of media against Pakistan has been propagated especially against Pakistan's Government including Military and its institutions. This further includes cyber attacks, fake news, social media, money laundering, hacking of bank accounts, secessionist movements in Baluchistan, sectarian strife, creating unrest by raising popular religious slogans ( blasphemy related protests by TLYR) hacking etc . The acts of terrorism especially against hard core military targets like Army ,Naval and PAF bases and targeting foreign missions like the Chinese Consulate with responsibilities claimed by various terrorists entities like Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TPP), ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Baluchistan Liberation Army(BLA), but would have been perpetrated by hostile foreign power(s) to showcase the weakness of the State and erode conventional war fighting capability. The primary objective of these nefarious activities is to mar the credibility of the State, create a wedge between Army and the Executive, create mass unrest and portray Pakistan unsafe for foreign investment and as a failed state.
Pakistan and The Frustrated Enemies
US Army Major Shannon Beebe, the top Intel officer for Africa at the time, as describing the “fifth-generation as a vortex of violence, a free-for-all of surprise destruction motivated more by frustration than by any coherent plans for the future.”
Hybrid war may not be a war at all. The objective may not be to secure an adversary’s immediate defeat, but to erode its morale; isolate it; ‘soften’ it up before a conflict; deflect it from pursuing unacceptable military or political objectives; disrupt its communications, command and control and/or important infrastructure; impose economic pain to secure adherence to political demands; de-legitimize an adversary’s government; compromise its leaders. Thus hybrid warfare exploits the full-spectrum of modern warfare
A state engaging in hybrid warfare fomented instability in another state’s domestic affairs by using the techniques of cyber and influence operatives in conjunction with economic pressures, support to local opposition groups, disinformation and criminal/terrorist activities.
The hybrid war against Pakistan is focused on Baluchistan, the former FATA region, Gilgit-Baltistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan has developed credible capabilities to deter nuclear and conventional aggression. However, it remains very vulnerable to hybrid warfare. Pakistan’s adversaries enjoy considerable prowess in IT, cyber, media projection and narrative construction, including ‘fake news’, subversion and sabotage, and sponsorship of terrorism, including ‘false-flag’ operations.
Pakistan must possess the cyber capability to defend its crucial command-and-control systems and its industrial and transport infrastructure against enemy attack. But to deter such attack, Pakistan must also have the capability for offensive cyber action. The technologies for waging a “comprehensive” conflict and “new generation warfare” are being actively developed by every significant State. Pakistan cannot afford to be left behind. To acquire credible capacity to defend against and repel hybrid wars, Pakistan will need to make dedicated efforts, comparable to those deployed to develop its nuclear and missile programs. The Pakistani Government should promote effective media policy not only to provide credible information to the public (both domestic and foreign), but also to counterbalance the hostile countries’ media, fake news and disinformation. This modern warfare is not about weapons, but rather of efficient use of technology.
Despite all this happening against Pakistan, the nation still stands and has a hopeful future.
@Mangus Ortus Novem @Khafee @Dubious
My dear Pak,
Brilliant!
Many thanks for your concise and educational piece. The entire point of this thread is to help us form a comprehensive understanding of what confronts us i.e. Problem Definition... before equally comprehensive solutions can be deployed.
Just to create a backdrop / context...
As you, no dobut, have read Total War... Hybridwar is an evolution of that same concept. Now only more means and speed has become available for the adversary.
With finance becoming weaponised and so-called human rights equally weaponsied tools of creating pressure points to hollowout a state from within and without has become quite easy.
The difference between first Gulf War and second shows the evolution of concepts, as you clearly pointed, being tested in the fields.
Open socieities such as Pak are more prone to such impositions of hybridwar attacks than those, say China/Russia, who have managed to create all kinds of firewalls to protect themselves from such hollowing out from within. Russia learnt the hard way as 1990s demonstrate.
In a way a smilar template is being employed on Pakistan as well... only more refined... of course, colour revolutions and arab springs provided valuable experience and validations of concepts to the actors.
Coming back to Pakistan, if we look closely, post NRO a certain acceleration in hollowing out of state instituitions... astronomical rise in national debt... total absence of basic, quality services and a media narrative against the security instituitions of Pak State.
Starting from TTP to evolution of PTM...constant keeping alive of BLA via Afghanistan... with the help of the usual suspects... we see a multipronged attack in the form of #MarasiMedia daily subliminal programming of Paks against the security establishment, NRO+ politicians openly undermining the forces, practically using them as punching bags and then creating an environment of unstability as blackmailing tool to push the process of accountability back....
Hierin media-cells and #trendmakers from Pak and outside of Pak pretending to be Paks have created a very challenging environment for Pak State to fight back.
A recent example of $ rate hike and KSE maninpulation is cae in point of economic element of blackmailing of state or perhaps more openly failure of the current government to act more resolutely.
However, the process of destruction of state instuitions and total Instituitional Capture as pointed about by SCP has limited the ability of the State to act. So the paralysis of curent government is understandable to some extent... not overlooking its own failures in execution of policies...
If we take the micro-cosmos of PDF as an example... we can clearly see the effects of this 'programming' by the #MarasiMedia and politicos that many Paks here tend to blame everything on security establishment... it is so an easy excuse that fits all bills....
This is one of the effects of this Hybridwar... confusion, inability to form clear picture and a readymade target to blame.
Quetta terror attack of yesterday and Pak posters reaction on it a clear example of this effect/programming.... without applying any rational thinking... they automatically blame... the failure of security forces... This is sad.
No dobut security establishment has made many mistakes. Of course, they have.... up untill Tricky Mush period. The entire nation was with him to do accountability but he chose to sip whisky and play bridge instead... the result of that is the plunder of next ten years after him.... Dictators are stupid!
Anyhow, it is not all gloom and doom... it is a very complex and sophisticated battle as you clinincally elaborated. There is a fight back also... by making the attack public the security establishment has announced a fightback.
What is missing is regulation of socialmedia and #MarasiMedia.... unless #LifafaJurnos are held accountable we will remain schakled to the pole... #CriminalEnterprise has created a counter state... a true state-within-state...
Unless Paks, ordinary Paks, become aware of this Hybridwar, we shall keep seeing PTM doing jalssaz in ISL.
Once again... Thankyou for a very informative piece!
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