So here are two important on the ground situation to be considered first
(1) Anti-India does not mean pro-Pakistan. Sepratists are not all valley Kashmiris and that majority of the separatists want a secular independent J&K state representing the entire historical J&K state.
Firstly,
EjazR, thank you for being civil. You are certainly a trend-breaker, and I hope you are also a trend-setter.
Now, your points are understood. I have seen that study conducted by Peacepolls, and yes, it is indeed true that most Kashmiris in the Valley support the idea of an independent Kashmir. However, the vast majority of the people in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan strongly support remaining with Pakistan (as backed by the poll), whereas a majority of the people in Ladakh and Jammu have shown the desire to remain with India. Therefore, the Valley remains the only place which is not happy with the status quo (i.e., under Indian control). Now, the poll shows that the number who oppose merger with Pakistan and/or India is similar, however, it does not show how many of those who do not support merger with Pakistan claim India is unacceptable and vice versa. If this statistic were to be estimated using what we already know about the Valley, then the common view found in the Valley is "anything but India", and the events of this year and the year before are testament to that. Given the choice between Pakisan and India and no independence, most experts have little doubt that the people of the Valley would choose Pakistan. A study that further backs this claim is one conducted by an Indian journalism network in the early nineties whcih listed
only merger with Pakistan or India as possible solutions. It was found that the overwhelming majority (do not remember the number) supported merger with Pakistan (the poll was alluded to in the documentary Jashn-e-Azadi). This view has also been expressed by the likes of Yasin Malik, who has made it clear that, betwen the two, he would choose Pakistan. You don't have to take my word for it (as you probably won't), but I implore you to try and understand
why a referendum or an official opinion poll has never been conducted in the Valley by the Indian government. There is a reason why the Valley is boiling with anti-Indian sentiments to this day.
(2) Militant/proxy groups targeting Kashmir are part of the problem. Even from the separatist pov, they have caused enormous harm to their cause and have alienated them from the local population. All attempts must be undertaken by the GoP to restrict and dismantle these groups BEFORE any settlement could be reached. This is vital to provide a free atmosphere to pro-India politicians and people to articulate their vision and media groups to freely criticize them.
Sir, the militant networks are not majority Pakistanis as is being claimed, because such an idea is absurd to say the least. Separatist militant networks
originated in Kashmir, and received traning, logistical support and reinforcements from Pakistan. Nobody is denying that Pakistanis are involved in the Valley, but their involvement is exaggerated to spread the false claim that
we started this problem. Furthermore, Kashmiri youth has been becoming increasingly militant-minded, according to Eric Margolis, a Canadian expert on this issue. The reason for this is that the youth see little or no other options; they see that in the first 40 years of peaceful and political struggle got them nowhere, whereas the 20 years of militancy forced the Indian government to take notice. Hence, militancy cannot be stopped by Pakistan alone, as it would clearly be seen as withdrawal of support by the people of Kashmir. Militant networks, however, can be
controlled or made
passive for certain periods of time (as Yasin Malik's JKLF) to allow pro-India politicians and groups to express their opinions freely. For that to happen India will first have to show the resolve to find a solution. All we have been seeing so far is half-hearted participation in meetings where the Kashmir issue is put last on the to-do list.
Thus, the following points will make my solution possible:
(I) If independence is not an option, the Valley would choose Pakistan, plain and simple. Since self-determination is not something that India is keen on, and since indepence will not be supported in India, Pakistan, Jammu, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir, merger with Pakistan remains the only way forward that would be acceptable to the Valley.
(II) The militancy began a long time after the occupation began, therefore, it will end once the occupation winds down. You cannot expect Pakistanis and Kashmiris to have blind faith in India's intentions to resolve the issue, mainly because India has given neither of us any reason to do so. Work towards a solution, reach a compromise, and I guarantee, militancy will decline (as it will no longer be seen as a requirement by Pakistanis or Kashmiris).
(III) India has not been serious about discussions at all, and is quite happy with the status quo at the expense of the people of the Valley. This can only change if the people of India stop the charade and actually awaken their collective conscience. What makes it okay for Kashmiris to sleep in fear while Bombay-ers sleep peacefully? That is the question they have to ask themselves. Only then can India get serious. Once you are determined to solve the issue, you should have no problem realizing that losing a small piece of territory will save us both years of frustration and bloodshed.
(IV) The presence of a mountain of Indian armed personnel and the constant human rights abuse are unacceptable to the people of Kashmir, and these factors also greatly hinder peace-building and trust-building. However, since India would be reluctant to decrease the troop-presence by too much before any resolution is reached, and both Pakistanis and Kashmiris would be reluctant to pull back all militant efforts as long as there is a strong Indian military presence, the solution
must be reached
before either side can de-escalate its military presence in the region.
