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Le PIB français retrouverait fin 2013 son niveau d'avant-crise
Le PIB français retrouverait fin 2013 son niveau d'avant-crise
PARIS (Reuters) - The gross domestic product ( GDP) of France is expected to stagnate in the third quarter and then forge ahead to find the end of 2013 to its pre - crisis confirmation thinning began in the spring , said the INSEE.
In a memo on the economy released Thursday , the institute has accordingly revised upwards its forecast for employment in the private sector for the second half and now anticipates , with the sharp rise in parallel supported employment , a rate stabilization unemployment in late 2013.
For INSEE , the upturn in the European economy observed since the spring is likely to continue , even if the figures for the third quarter are expected to lag - blow against the strong rebound recorded in the second .
In France, after its 0.5 % in the second quarter, growth stagnate in the third quarter before accelerating again in the fourth ( 0.4 %).
"When you do the math , we see that there finally regain the level ( GDP) that was on the brink of crisis in early 2008 ," said Cedric Audenis , head of the environment department of INSEE .
With a potential annual growth was then estimated to be between 1.5 % and 2.0% French economy , ten percentage points of GDP that evaporated since , he said.
For 2013 , the average GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% , a very modest recovery after stagnating in 2012 . But yoy growth would have been 0.8% at the end of the fourth quarter, a level that better reflects its current momentum , against 0.3% in late 2012.
This would , according to the Institute of France in 2014 to deal with an asset growth of 0.4%.
" If the trend anticipated by INSEE confirmed in the coming quarters, our growth forecast of 0.9% for 2014 may be exceeded ," said the Minister of Economy, Pierre Moscovici, in a statement.
In its previous forecast in late June , Insee forecast a GDP stagnated in the third quarter and 0.2% growth in the fourth after a limited increase 0.2% in the second , all to result in a decline 0.1% over the entire 2013.
UNEMPLOYMENT STABILIZED 11%
The improvement is generally from the euro area, which INSEE anticipates growth of 0.1 % and 0.3 % in the third and fourth quarters, which positively guide the foreign demand addressed to France .
The stagnation of French GDP Q3 would especially a slight decline in industrial production and a return to normal consumption of energy products after surging in the spring because of the bad weather .
For INSEE , improving the business climate found for all sectors in its latest monthly survey (see ) heralds the rebound in activity in the fourth quarter .
This would be further fueled by a gradual acceleration of the construction sector in the wake of recovery in housing starts recorded in the first half.
The return to growth would limit the damage in employment and INSEE not expected 31,000 net job losses in the private sector in the second half (24,000 in the third quarter 7000 and 4th ) against 76,000 previously .
With the rise of the jobs of the future , which will swell the number of subsidized jobs , the institute expects the unemployment rate still rise by 0.1 points in the 3rd quarter , to 11.0% and then stabilize at this level in the fourth after a continuous rise since mid- 2011.
Asked whether a reversal of the unemployment curve is then possible, as promised by the government , Cedric Audenis replied that the activity of 2014, based on growth of 0.8 % to 0.9% anticipated by the current consensus of economists , not enough to start commercial employment .
Knowing that the French economy must absorb an annual increase in population of 120,000 people , " to have a lower unemployment will require supported employment continues to grow at a steady pace and the effects of credit competitive employment tax ( CICE ) rise over quickly, " he said.
INSEE is " relatively confident" about the fact that the CICE will forward a significant impact on job creation , which could amount to hundreds of thousands . " But the question is whether it will materialize in 2014 ," said the economist.
