Genesis
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Now now, let's not be too over-critical, my dear. China's CPC has made it known that it claims the South China Sea as its own. We know that many of the islands and shoals in that region are either controlled or inhabitted by various powers -- for example, Vietnam has administrative control of most of those islands, while the Philippines, Brunei and even Malaysia have administrative control over various other islands that China claims. Please refer to image #1:
If there's one thing I learnt from the Americans is it doesn't matter what the other thinks, I'll do my thing, stop me or deal with it.
Why should we compromise, let say we drop all claims, the Philippines and Vietnam will still claim those area as theirs. Which means what ever inconvenience it may have had on America will now be on China. Nobody ever seems to discuss what would happen if China did drop these claims, and hwo ridicules their claims are as well.
By dropping our claims, we would effectively back ourselves into a corner and severely limit our ability to project power, protect interests, and even conduct trade and military operations.
View attachment 184776
Image #1: list of islands effectively administered by China, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.
Clearly China will not abrogate its claims now because doing so would weaken the national mandate of the CPC in leiu of the national image. At the same time you cannot expect Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam to abandon their shoals and islands which they already effectively administer -- outside the point of gun. Now can you ? So what can the region do? What can China do?
We don't care what the others do, we care what we do, continue the expansion of our navy and operation capability, continue to use the Gangis Khan strategy of encirclement, and move our interests into Indian Ocean and Africa, then turn back and start another front on the other side.
The difference will only be bigger not less, I'm sure you would agree on this point, not that the difference isn't enough now.
As you said national image is important, Philippines, if they win the tribunal will want to cash in, we will simply bait them, and even if we dont' get them here, we'll get them sometime, as long as we don't fire the first shot, we will have the initiative, and since we don't send warships, we will.
We don't have to turn it in our favor, just make it murky and questionable is good enough.
Well, if Sino-Japanese inter-ADIZ dynamic can shed some semblance of understanding on the possible solution to tihs is this --- differences in claims are natural and normal , but systems should be set in place either in the case of a maritime hotline to effectively reduce the instance of flare ups or -- at least have the mechanism in place to implement damage control in the event of an unforeseeable circumstance. You know -- as well as I do -- that Japan and China have ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zones) that crosses each other, yet at the same time there have been -- ZERO (0%) instance of shooting or military related deaths between the Japanese Air Self Defense Force and the People's Liberation Army Air Force. Why is this? Please refer to Image #2. Its because of responsible inter-governmental-based military to military communication mechanisms set in place. I believe the same thing can be implemented in South China Sea and in the greater ASEAN region.
View attachment 184777
Image #2: The Japanese and Chines ADIZ, note their cross-over.
Japan doesn't have anything to prove, China at this point don't need to prove much, at least not against ASEAN.
That's more than can be said for the others. ASEAN has a knack of shooting themselves in the foot, as proven by their current state of affairs. I have confidence in them to make some sort of bone headed play. If nothing else, we have an entire playbook to work with, but for them, it's like they are playing against the Legion of Boom, and the long ball is gone, and their quarterback isn't Rodgers, but more like Geno Smith.