The Electric Vehicle Disruption - End Of Oil by 2030

[ahojunk]

Before Tesla came along, car manufacturers were not interested in electric cars. One reason is that EV has 20 moving parts compared to ICE having 2000 moving parts. These car companies couldn't make much money in after market sales for EV.

That's probably a reason why GM killed off their EV1 in early 2000's. Who knows, if GM had continued with EV1 (i.e. EV2, etc), they could be the main player today in EV. What a missed opportunity!

Moreover, the EV is about 3 to 4 times more efficient than ICE. To "transport" electricity, the current electric grid will do, no need for a new infrastructure as opposed to the "hydrogen economy".

Tesla's Elon Musk will be remembered in history as the person who single-handedly forced the auto industry transition from ICE to EV. Tesla made the EV acceptable, practical and "sexy". Prior to Tesla, nobody believed that EV can out perform ICE.

IMO, the following are needed before the switch-over to EV:-
1) A common EV charger/charging standard. At the moment, different EV manufacturers have different standards.
2) Improve the battery tech with higher energy density to increase the mileage. (Current tech is good enough but it can be improved.)
3) Fast charging.

Even if all cars run on electricity, there will still be a need for gasoline. However, the demand will be reduced substantially.

Solar and wind energy is just the tip of the iceberg, the real disruptive force is fusion power.

Regardless of the source of energy, it will still be based on "electricity". This is the good news.

 

[BMM Solar]

It is also imperative to note that

EVs were among the earliest automobiles, and before the preeminence of light, powerful internal combustion engines, electric automobiles held many vehicle land speed and distance records in the early 1900s. They were produced by Baker Electric, Columbia Electric, Detroit Electric, and others, and at one point in history outsold gasoline-powered vehicles. In fact, in 1900, 28 percent of the cars on the road in the USA were electric. EVs were so popular that even President Woodrow Wilson and his secret service agents toured Washington DC in their Milburn Electrics, which covered 60–70 mi (100–110 km) per charge.


A number of developments contributed to decline of electric cars. Improved road infrastructure required a greater range than that offered by electric cars, and the discovery of large reserves of petroleum in Texas, Oklahoma, and California led to the wide availability of affordable gasoline/petrol, making internal combustion powered cars cheaper to operate over long distances. Also internal combustion powered cars became ever easier to operate thanks to the invention of the electric starter by Charles Kettering in 1912, which eliminated the need of a hand crank for starting a gasoline engine, and the noise emitted by ICE cars became more bearable thanks to the use of the muffler, which Hiram Percy Maxim had invented in 1897. As roads were improved outside urban areas electric vehicle range could not compete with the ICE. Finally, the initiation of mass production of gasoline-powered vehicles by Henry Ford in 1913 reduced significantly the cost of gasoline cars as compared to electric cars.

source: wikipedia

Very unlikely ... solar efficiency is very low even in the idealistic conditions whereas in most part of the world it simply cant work due to low temperatures and timming of sun ...

Wind energy is much more expensive than nuclear hydel and coal ...

On car .. self driving cars are much expensive and might require alot of infrastructure investment which is not available in underdeveloped countries .. for example how will it react when traffic signal is out ...

Solar power system works best under low-temperature conditions, all it needs is sunlight(photons) to generate electricity with the rise in temperature solar cell losses tend to increase as well which results in lower yield. I will quote you in another where I am doing a cost analysis for different sources.

 

[The Accountant]

It is also imperative to note that

EVs were among the earliest automobiles, and before the preeminence of light, powerful internal combustion engines, electric automobiles held many vehicle land speed and distance records in the early 1900s. They were produced by Baker Electric, Columbia Electric, Detroit Electric, and others, and at one point in history outsold gasoline-powered vehicles. In fact, in 1900, 28 percent of the cars on the road in the USA were electric. EVs were so popular that even President Woodrow Wilson and his secret service agents toured Washington DC in their Milburn Electrics, which covered 60–70 mi (100–110 km) per charge.


A number of developments contributed to decline of electric cars. Improved road infrastructure required a greater range than that offered by electric cars, and the discovery of large reserves of petroleum in Texas, Oklahoma, and California led to the wide availability of affordable gasoline/petrol, making internal combustion powered cars cheaper to operate over long distances. Also internal combustion powered cars became ever easier to operate thanks to the invention of the electric starter by Charles Kettering in 1912, which eliminated the need of a hand crank for starting a gasoline engine, and the noise emitted by ICE cars became more bearable thanks to the use of the muffler, which Hiram Percy Maxim had invented in 1897. As roads were improved outside urban areas electric vehicle range could not compete with the ICE. Finally, the initiation of mass production of gasoline-powered vehicles by Henry Ford in 1913 reduced significantly the cost of gasoline cars as compared to electric cars.

source: wikipedia


Solar power system works best under low-temperature conditions, all it needs is sunlight(photons) to generate electricity with the rise in temperature solar cell losses tend to increase as well which results in lower yield. I will quote you in another where I am doing a cost analysis for different sources.

Yes please do. Last time I reviewed the feasibility of a solar power plant it was twice the per unit cost of crude oil ... But those analyses are almost 5 to 6 years old and cost of cells is going down drastically ...

Wind was cheaper but still way too expensive in Pakistan in comparison to Gas however slightly cheaper than oil ...

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

https://futurism.com/volvo-says-that-they-will-stop-making-diesel-engines-thanks-to-tesla/

Volvo Says That They Will Stop Making Diesel Engines, Thanks to Tesla

Diesel’s Death Knell

Electric vehicles (EVs) are rapidly becoming a juggernaut in the future of personal vehicles. Tesla is leading the charge in bringing electric cars to the mainstream. Now, other companies looking to capitalize on that momentum are joining in on the fun. Volvo’s President and CEO, Hakan Samuelsson, recently talked to a German newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, about how the Swedish car company is ramping up its plans for EVs.

Not only are they looking to expand on electric engines, but the CEO also mentioned in the interview that they will no longer pursue developing diesel engines. “From today’s perspective, we will not develop any more new generation diesel engines.”

Image credit: Volvo

This announcement comes shortly after Elon Musk gave the world a first look at Tesla’s upcoming all-electric semi-truck.

Samuelsson explained further in an email to Reuters, “We have just launched a brand new generation of petrol and diesel engines, highlighting our commitment to this technology. As a result, a decision on the development of a new generation of diesel engines is not required.”

Thanks Tesla
Samuelsson admits that Tesla is the driving force behind the decision to focus on EVs. “We have to recognize that Tesla has managed to offer such a car for which people are lining up. In this area, there should also be space for us, with high quality and attractive design,” he said in the email.

Volvo does not intend to completely phase out the further development of its latest diesel engine — it will continue to upgrade the engines to meet tightening emissions standards. Samuelsson expects these stricter environmental standards to add to the price of diesel engines, giving an additional advantage to electric engines. Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs estimates an additional cost of more than $330 to each engine.

The Volvo EVs are expected to become available in 2019 and cost something in the range of $35,000 to $40,000. Volvo is hoping to release the cars with a range of roughly 402 kilometers (250 miles) per charge. These additions to the EV market will give commuters more options than ever to reduce their carbon footprints.