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The Conflict in Syria as it Relates to Turkey | Updates & Discussions

I am getting bored of following Syrian conflict news. Both Assad, and his opposition are bunch of incompetent low-IQ morons. Does Anyone else have the same feelings? @Alienoz_TR @Sinan @xenon54 @Hakan @tesla
I have never seen anyone being more stupid than these goons. I don't even understand how Assad lost to oppositions at the beginning and how fast his forces lose battle, cities, ... in each raid, in contrast to having big air force and thousands of tanks, .... The FSA is also another incompetent goon. They have been pumped by a lot of equipments, TOWs, ... yet they cannot do shit against anyone. The only advantage of ISIS is having a handful of Chechens who know how to fight, but, even ISIS are not as much as strong that they are shown. those ISIS stupids still fight with sandals, and are not encountered any serious armed forces on the ground. In sum, it's like watching bunch of turtles doing a marathon competition.
1) ATGMs are good for defence but you cant do much with them in offensive. Rebels still lack artillery, (all they have is self made mortars and hell cannons). They lack armor, except few captured tanks, they dont have any air force.

2) Assad does not have enough manpower to control the entire Syria, but today his territory shrank more than twice, so he can control what has remained much more effectively.

3) Assad receives aid from Hezbollah, Iraqi Shias and some other which compensate lack of manpower.

4) Assad realized that no one gives a damn, so he barrel bombs and starved encircled rebels with no mercy. This forced them either surrender/flee or sign truce.

Thats why we are in stalemate.
 
1) ATGMs are good for defence but you cant do much with them in offensive. Rebels still lack artillery, (all they have is self made mortars and hell cannons). They lack armor, except few captured tanks, they dont have any air force.

2) Assad does not have enough manpower to control the entire Syria, but today his territory shrank more than twice, so he can control what has remained much more effectively.

3) Assad receives aid from Hezbollah, Iraqi Shias and some other which compensate lack of manpower.

4) Assad realized that no one gives a damn, so he barrel bombs and starved encircled rebels with no mercy. This forced them either surrender/flee or sign truce.

Thats why we are in stalemate.

Well, I believe all sides are really incompetents.
As far as oppositions are concerned, they are weakened by fighting against each other, and even two islamists groups with 99% the same mentality cannot get along. As far as artillery is concerned, they have captured a considerable amount from Assad, and providing the rest needs is on their own supporters in Arab countries. Anyway, opposition are receiving huge amount of aid from Jordan border, and receiving more fighters, yet, they have done nothing special in Dar'aa and Quneitara after several years. Also, they have not done anything special in Idlib(The city is still in Assad's hand) and Aleppo either, and have lost their influence in eastern Syria to bunch of ragtag sandal wearing ISIS fighters.
Assad and his army on the other hand, is not much capable either, and the biggest joke is that a few Hezballah fighters, and some few Iranians have outperformed units of Assad army. Sohail Hasan is the only Syrian general with some brain, although he is not that good as Assadists say. Assad had a huge fleet of tanks, and fighters, but mindlessly lost huge lands at the beginning. Also, I cannot even digest how they easily lost Tabqa, and also how much easily they were going to lose Tiyas, their most important air base, with the first insignificant raids of ISIS, although Tiyas was designed to be very well guarded against invaders.
In sum, I do conclude that all sides really lack knowing basics about a war.
 
Anyway, opposition are receiving huge amount of aid from Jordan border, and receiving more fighters, yet, they have done nothing special in Dar'aa and Quneitara after several years.
Aid is very small and limited basically to several hundreds of ATGMs. They currently control some 70% of Dara and Quneitra. Also these provinces had very large concentration of military bases.

Also, they have not done anything special in Idlib(The city is still in Assad's hand) and Aleppo either
They control most of these provinces as well.

and have lost their influence in eastern Syria to bunch of ragtag sandal wearing ISIS fighters
ISIS are not bunch and not rag tag either. They have tens of thousands fighters, they have battlehardened iraqi baath officers and Chechens, they are fanatical, motivated and well organized.

Plus fighting on two fronts is not easy for anyone.

Assad and his army on the other hand, is not much capable either, and the biggest joke is that a few Hezballah fighters, and some few Iranians have outperformed units of Assad army.
The big mistake of Assad that he tried to control the entire Syria although he lacked forces for it.

Claiming that Hezbollah outperforms all the army is not true either. Hezbollah lost hundreds of men while storming tiny totally encircled Quseir. I'm sure they would fail without the massive firepower support from the army.

Also, I cannot even digest how they easily lost Tabqa
Yeah that was strange, just like second takeover of Shaer. But in Deir Zor SAA is doing ton bad vs IS. There is almost no Hezbollah there.
 
I partially agree with your post.
Aid is very small and limited basically to several hundreds of ATGMs. They currently control some 70% of Dara and Quneitra. Also these provinces had very large concentration of military bases.
Well, it has been several thousands, not several hundreds ;) USA, in one pack alone, sold about 3000 TOWs to arabs to be delivered to oppositions, if you remember.
Anyway, it is like 70% in Quneitara, 60% in Dar'aa, and still the city is not captured yet, and 5% or less in Suwayda. It's a very poor result after this long time, although I do understand your point about the big number of army bases units stationed in that area.
They control most of these provinces as well.
Not about Aleppo, but they have upper hands in Idlib. Still have not capture the city of Idlib, though.
ISIS are not bunch and not rag tag either. They have tens of thousands fighters, they have battlehardened iraqi baath officers and Chechens, they are fanatical, motivated and well organized.
That's true for their leaders and elites, but I don't think that the body of ISIS forces are like Chechns or ex-Saddam officers. They are mostly paid, or have blind religious motivations and not much training.
The big mistake of Assad that he tried to control the entire Syria although he lacked forces for it.
I agree :tup:
Claiming that Hezbollah outperforms all the army is not true either. Hezbollah lost hundreds of men while storming tiny totally encircled Quseir. I'm sure they would fail without the massive firepower support from the army.
Except for usual propagandas in favor of Hezballah goons and Iranian goons, also in reality they have shown to be better than SAA, or NDF and such goons. Well, if you remember, a video from Iranian officers was exposed in Syria about 1 year ago, in which the Iranian commander clearly was critical of Assad forces, and was suggesting that Iranians do the attacks, then use Assad forces for keeping the area.
Yeah that was strange, just like second takeover of Shaer. But in Deir Zor SAA is doing ton bad vs IS. There is almost no Hezbollah there.
:tup:

In sum, still I feel to stand correct about my opinion regarding Assadists and oppositions. Non of them have done what they supposed to do and have had very rookie mistakes.
 
I partially agree with your post.

Well, it has been several thousands, not several hundreds ;) USA, in one pack alone, sold about 3000 TOWs to arabs to be delivered to oppositions, if you remember.
The supplies of ATGMs started only in June 2013. Thats some 500 days total. They fire no more than 2-3 a day on average. More than 1 thousand but less than 2 thousands. Assad has some 10,000 pieces of armor.

Anyway, it is like 70% in Quneitara, 60% in Dar'aa, and still the city is not captured yet, and 5% or less in Suwayda. It's a very poor result after this long time, although I do understand your point about the big number of army bases units stationed in that area.
Dar'a as province bordering Israel was one big fortification. Virtually every hill there had an army base. Storming a hill without heavy weapons is extremely hard thing.

Suwayda is virtually all Druze and loyal to Assad. Also in Daraa and Quneitra there are loyal towns.

Not about Aleppo, but they have upper hands in Idlib. Still have not capture the city of Idlib, though.
Well rebs controlled most of the Aleppo province prior ISIS takeover. The Aleppo city itself is mostly loyal to Assad.

Idlib and Hama are two cities which experienced massive crackdowns in early stages of the revolt, before any serious resistance appeared there. But that backfired for Assad, since as result Assad had not enough troops to protect his main economic hub - Aleppo and Damascus suburbs.

That's true for their leaders and elites, but I don't think that the body of ISIS forces are like Chechns or ex-Saddam officers. They are mostly paid, or have blind religious motivations and not much training.
Since IS is well organized, they are highly mobile and can dispatch their elite commanders to main fronts.

But most important is actually was their strategy. They came in in spring 2013 as rebel allies. Slowly populating areas with their men. Then in january 2014, when rebels had hard times in Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, Qalamun, they backstubbed the rebels. And for over half year they almost did not fight Assad. They basically had some sort of informal truce and even allowed supplies to encircled Assad bases.

Except for usual propagandas in favor of Hezballah goons and Iranian goons, also in reality they have shown to be better than SAA, or NDF and such goons. Well, if you remember, a video from Iranian officers was exposed in Syria about 1 year ago, in which the Iranian commander clearly was critical of Assad forces, and was suggesting that Iranians do the attacks, then use Assad forces for keeping the area.
Hezbollah are carefully selected fanatics out of 1.5 million Shia population of Lebanon. They pass extensive training (which starts since school summer camps), they are well financed, they have experience in guerilla warfare. So obviously they are much higher quality than average drafted SAA soldier.

Nevertheless they are highly overrated and would not do much without Assads barrel bombs, Volcanos and armor.

In sum, still I feel to stand correct about my opinion regarding Assadists and oppositions. Non of them have done what they supposed to do and have had very rookie mistakes.
I actually think that both sides actually did the max:

* Assad while being a little minority managed to hold the integrity of his army (there were virtually no unit defections), functional regime (with massive foreign aid though), and control over the core of Syria.

* Rebels virtually without any support (as I said minor support started only in mid 2013) managed to take some half of the country by the end of 2012.

Then in 2013 new forces came in now the war looks something like this:

B0q7LKwIIAIdI0e.jpg large.jpg
 
The most impressive thing about ISIS is how they quickly and effectively adapt and change their tactics to changing situations. That's what separates them from Al-Qaeda and other scum.

Besides, they became the rallying point for all the battle hardened extremists from all over the world because of that so-called Caliphate.
 
@Sinan @Alienoz_TR @atatwolf @kaan
What's the best feasible solution for Syria in your opinions?
Dividing Syria into Sunni and Alewite parts in a way that the sunni part holds at least some border with Jordan, is a thinkable option in my mind. What's your opinion?
 
@Sinan @Alienoz_TR @atatwolf @kaan
What's the best feasible solution for Syria in your opinions?
Dividing Syria into Sunni and Alewite parts in a way that the sunni part holds at least some border with Jordan, is a thinkable option in my mind. What's your opinion?
1. Oust the dictator Assad.

2. Hold free elections. Will of the majority. Sunni will regain control.

3. Establish central government. The Sunni Arabs will take care of the Kurdish terrorist cells/enclaves or other seperatists

Best for Turkey is unitary Syria and democracy/will of the majority. Farsi's won't like that because if dictator Assad is gone. They will loose influence and probably also backfire to Iran.

I think US is doing this on purpose. Anger Sunni so when Iran's time comes. They can unleash the dogs of war.
 
@Sinan @Alienoz_TR @atatwolf @kaan
What's the best feasible solution for Syria in your opinions?
Dividing Syria into Sunni and Alewite parts in a way that the sunni part holds at least some border with Jordan, is a thinkable option in my mind. What's your opinion?

I dunno bro.... that country seems beyond repair to me....
 
@Sinan @Alienoz_TR @atatwolf @kaan
What's the best feasible solution for Syria in your opinions?
Dividing Syria into Sunni and Alewite parts in a way that the sunni part holds at least some border with Jordan, is a thinkable option in my mind. What's your opinion?
Best thing is to keep the country together. Borders are good right now. If one part splits everyone else will want to split.

You would have PKK bordering Turkey and a hostile Alevi state bordering hatay and controling the rest of syria's access to the mediteranean. Also an Extremist state would be a problem.
 
What about, applying a Russia Federation state model and annex syria ?, and than have a democratic syria under observation by the federation. But when we do this, we can't enter the EU("good riddance if you ask me").
 
Best thing is to keep the country together. Borders are good right now. If one part splits everyone else will want to split.

You would have PKK bordering Turkey and a hostile Alevi state bordering hatay and controling the rest of syria's access to the mediteranean. Also an Extremist state would be a problem.

I can understand that. But, is it going to happen? Oppositions will not be able to drag Assad out of Alewite regions, and Assad will not be able to drag opposition out of their current held region in the next 2-3 years. That's my thought. So, we need to think about choosing the best available options.
 
there are no real allies in Syria. Turkmen are too low in population and outnumbered in the regions where they are present. So in this case keeping the mess together seems to be a better idea, as long as Assad and Iranian influence is kept out as much as possible that is, because if a type like Assad returns, he most probably will increase ties with Iran and be more anti-Turkey. if it's gonna split up somehow, we will have to deal with pyd, probably alevite state, shia and sunni region. But it might end up pyd being contained by the sunni part while the alewites by the shia part. aside from politics, a united and democratic pro-Turkey Syria would be much better for us from business and geopolitical point of view instead of smaller, weaker, divided and continually being problem makers, which actually might have its merits too, but still.
 
annex syria

:omghaha:

that would be the most idotic thing we could do.... you go to war.. first you have to win that will cost many lives.. than you will have to keep the region that will cost many many more lives.. than you have to deal with guerilla and terrorist attacks.. that will turn into a hell.. you can annex special parts that would be realistic but whole country? that is possible if you have some ppl there who do the dirty job and are local ppl.. eg many sunni arabs (there are not enough turks) wich would act as leader with own troops police etc..
 

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