The collapse of the Philippine-American alliance? Thread for ongoing events.

[anon45]

I felt this deserved a thread of its own for the ongoing discussion of the events happening in the Philippines and all articles concerning the weakening (or strengthening?) of American-Filipino ties.

Given recent events I think the thread is justified and will provide a continual source of news concerning the subject.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/duterte-signals-shift-in-u-s-philippine-military-alliance-1473774873

Duterte Signals Shift in U.S.-Philippine Military Alliance
Focus on combating drugs, insurgencies, not patrolling South China Sea

ENLARGE
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte speaks inside a military air base in Angeles City, east of Manila, Philippines, in July. Mr. Duterte ordered his defense secretary on Tuesday to seek gear from suppliers in China and Russia to fight drug traffickers and insurgents. PHOTO:FRANCIS R. MALASIG/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
By
TREFOR MOSS
Sept. 13, 2016 9:54 a.m. ET
14 COMMENTS

MANILA—Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ordered his defense secretary on Tuesday to seek gear from suppliers in China and Russia to fight drug traffickers and insurgents, signaling an abrupt departure from his nation’s longstanding military reliance on the U.S.

In another possible shift of significance, he also said the Philippines would stop patrolling the South China Sea alongside the U.S. Navy, to avoid upsetting Beijing. Instead, he said the nation’s military would focus on combating drugs and terrorism.

The Philippines has enjoyed close ties with the U.S. for decades, most recently bolstering military cooperation through a 2014 pact. Both Washington and Manila have leveraged their alliance to balance an increasingly assertive China.

But since coming to power on June 30, Mr. Duterte has signaled that he wants to distance the Philippines from the U.S., a stance that threatens to upend the Asia-Pacific region’s strategic balance. He said Monday he wanted the U.S. military to leave Mindanao, the site of a strategic base set to host American forces.

“We are not cutting our alliances, but we will follow an independent foreign policy,” Mr. Duterte told members of the Philippine Air Force on Tuesday.


In the speech, the Philippine leader told officers to begin preparing to face a new threat. Rather than a possible battle in the South China Sea, Mr. Duterte said the military should focus on fighting drug traffickers and insurgencies.

Until now, the Philippines has bought the gear needed to fight such battles from suppliers in the U.S. and its Asian allies such as South Korea. But on Tuesday Mr. Duterte ordered Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana to seek suppliers in Russia and China, saying they offered soft loans payable in 20 to 25 years.

“I want weaponry and armaments…We don’t need F-16 jets, that is of no use to us,” he said, referring to the U.S.-made jet. “We don’t intend to fight any country. Let’s content ourselves even with propeller-driven planes that we could use extensively in anti-insurgency.”

Neither the U.S. Embassy in Manila nor the foreign and defense ministries of China and Russia immediately responded to requests for comment.

The Philippine military itself seemed caught off guard. “We are awaiting guidelines on how the president’s policy statements will be implemented,” a defense spokesman said.

Mr. Duterte’s statements this week were the latest in a string of developments that have by turn pleased, surprised and horrified his audiences since his rise to power. His so-called war on drugs and crime has already claimed 2,956 lives, according to police on Monday, and his sometimes crude statements have insulted targets as varied as the pope, the United Nations head and U.S. President Barack Obama.

But no shift is arguably as important as Mr. Duterte’s political turn from the U.S., the Philippines’ former colonial ruler until 1946.

Although Mr. Duterte is unlikely to abrogate the U.S. defense treaty, he risks damaging ties with its closest ally since “friendly and constructive relations at the political level oil the wheels of the alliance,” said Angelica Mangahas, deputy executive director of the Albert del Rosario Institute for Strategic and International Studies in Manila.

The U.S. provided $441 million in security funding to the Philippines between 2002 and 2013, according to Rand Corp., a U.S. think tank. The Obama administration has earmarked a record $120 million in military aid to the poor country this year alone. The U.S. provided substantial aid to the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan devastated the country in 2013.

Now, Mr. Duterte’s apparent tilt toward Washington’s strategic rivals in Beijing and Moscow and open hostility toward the U.S. imperils that relationship.

“I do not like the Americans. It’s simply a matter of principle for me,” Mr. Duterte said Monday.

Last week, Mr. Duterte sparked controversy by appearing to call Mr. Obama a “son of a bitch” during a media briefing, leading Mr. Obama to cancel planned talks with the Philippine leader.

On Monday, Mr. Duterte said U.S. forces in Zamboanga on the island of Mindanao, which advise local troops on counterterrorism operations, should leave, saying they were targets for insurgents. “They have to go; I do not want a rift with the U.S. but they have to go,” Mr. Duterte said.


Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte further strained his country’s ties with the U.S., Manila’s most important military ally, by calling for the departure of American troops from troubled Mindanao island, where they serve as military advisers. Photo: Getty Images
The Philippine military said American personnel would be “eased from harm’s way” in the southern Philippines, where the army is waging a campaign against the extremist Abu Sayyaf group. “We assure our people and allies that Philippine-U. S. defense relations remain rock solid,” the military said.

The 2014 security pact was one of the main foreign policy initiatives of former Philippines President Benigno Aquino III, who aimed to secure American backing in the Philippines’ struggle against China over disputed territory in the South China Sea.

The pact was also an important plank of Mr. Obama’s strategy of rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region in response to China’s rising power. The two countries began joint patrols of the South China Sea in April.

Earlier this year, the two nations’ agreed to deploy thousands of American troops to five strategic Philippine bases. A time frame wasn’t disclosed. Mr. Duterte’s spokesman said on Tuesday the leader still planned to honor the defense pact.

The Philippine leader’s U.S. criticism falls on fertile ground. Resentment over the U.S.’s nearly half-century of colonial rule here remains strong in some quarters. Yet Philippine society is on the whole notably pro-American. A June survey by local polling service Social Weather Stations found that the U.S. had a net trust rating of 72% among Filipinos. China had a net trust rating of minus 24%, with many Filipinos regarding China as a bully.

Still, Mr. Duterte has sometimes contrasted the U.S. unfavorably with China. On a trip to Indonesia last week he thanked China “for being so generous to us” by offering to build drug rehabilitation centers in the country.

“Only China will help us,” he said. “America just gave you principles of law and nothing else.”

—Cris Larano in Manila contributed to this article.

 

[cloud4000]

This is the most telling quote from the article:

The Philippine leader’s U.S. criticism falls on fertile ground. Resentment over the U.S.’s nearly half-century of colonial rule here remains strong in some quarters. Yet Philippine society is on the whole notably pro-American. A June survey by local polling service Social Weather Stations found that the U.S. had a net trust rating of 72% among Filipinos. China had a net trust rating of minus 24%, with many Filipinos regarding China as a bully.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte was voted to make things better domestically -- and his policies are extremely popular, for the moment -- but the price would be weakening of relations with US. If Duterte wants better relations with China and Russia, so be it. But China has territorial claims against the Philippines, does Duterte has what it takes to take on China alone?

 

[lcloo]

Duterte may be out-spoken and acted beyond normal norm but I think he is wise in giving priority to domestic problems rather than entangled between China and USA.

And negotiating with China rather than taking on a fight will ensure cooling off tensions in South China Sea.

If Duterte follow the policy of his predessor, he will be just a pawn in conflicts between big powers, losing independence in decision making in SCS affairs.

China does not want heated SCS tension because a very large majority of China's international trade pass through SCS. A peaceful SCS benefits China more than any other countries. Thus Duterte made a good choice going for negotiation.

Creating tensions in SCS is a part of containing rising of China. If the commercial shipping routes in SCS is disrupted, China's external trades will be badly affected, dampening China“s economy thus disrupt rising of China.

 

[anon45]

Duterte may be out-spoken and acted beyond normal norm but I think he is wise in giving priority to domestic problems rather than entangled between China and USA.

And negotiating with China rather than taking on a fight will ensure cooling off tensions in South China Sea.

If Duterte follow the policy of his predessor, he will be just a pawn in conflicts between big powers, losing independence in decision making in SCS affairs.

China does not want heated SCS tension because a very large majority of China's international trade pass through SCS. A peaceful SCS benefits China more than any other countries. Thus Duterte made a good choice going for negotiation.

Creating tensions in SCS is a part of containing rising of China. If the commercial shipping routes in SCS is disrupted, China's external trades will be badly affected, dampening China“s economy thus disrupt rising of China.

Don't you think this is the very reason China will continue to have an expansionist policy in the SCS? Would China trust the Philippines to remain friendly to it in the next election? They know very well that their commercial shipping routes are a big point of vulnerability, and there is no better way to secure that vulnerability than to make the islands striding those lanes Chinese as is possible.

I think China will look at this as a godsend, and should Duterte ever be foolish enough to end the MDT (or should the US choose to do it first due to the erratic policy behavior and perceived lack of benefit) China might wait until he is almost at the end of his term, but it will secure control of the islands it claims, because the Philippines can't do anything against China alone, and no one will intervene.

That's assuming Duterte doesn't horse trade them away anyways for development incentives and assured access to historical fishing grounds. which will be fished jointly.

China would be willing to give the first because it provides more jobs for Chinese (you think the people who build them won't be Chinese?), and it would be more than willing to give the second because it would control access to those grounds anyways and could use that as leverage in the future, whatever it says now. Its not like China hasn't reneged on deals with the Philippines before.

None of this addresses the corruption issue in the Philippines, which expands beyond drugs, and which will still be present even once these projects are complete.

Respect for rule of law and respect for the state is needed to limit corruption. I don't see the first happening, and the second only flows from either the first, or fear of the state.

 

[Beast]

This is the most telling quote from the article:



Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte was voted to make things better domestically -- and his policies are extremely popular, for the moment -- but the price would be weakening of relations with US. If Duterte wants better relations with China and Russia, so be it. But China has territorial claims against the Philippines, does Duterte has what it takes to take on China alone?

To achieve great things sacriface needs to be make. You can't have the best of both world , right? For example , there is no such things as the lightest, strongest and cheapest racing bicycle. If bicycle needs to be lightest and strongest. It need to be very expensive. It will depend on what u want and what is deemed not neccessary.

 

[zestokryl]

He is in great risk with his statements and conduct ...

I wouldnt be suprise if he soon gets ill with pancreas or tyroid cancer

Look what happened with Chaves. Wars in Syria and Ukraine, assasinations, destabilization by Soros and other funds, thats all what satanic imperium left with

USA can stay number one , only with inciting wars and driving others in misery and poverty spyrals. Some lucky generations are going to witness final demise of satanic imperium of USA

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Don't you think this is the very reason China will continue to have an expansionist policy in the SCS? Would China trust the Philippines to remain friendly to it in the next election? They know very well that their commercial shipping routes are a big point of vulnerability, and there is no better way to secure that vulnerability than to make the islands striding those lanes Chinese as is possible.

I think China will look at this as a godsend, and should Duterte ever be foolish enough to end the MDT (or should the US choose to do it first due to the erratic policy behavior and perceived lack of benefit) China might wait until he is almost at the end of his term, but it will secure control of the islands it claims, because the Philippines can't do anything against China alone, and no one will intervene.

That's assuming Duterte doesn't horse trade them away anyways for development incentives and assured access to historical fishing grounds. which will be fished jointly.

China would be willing to give the first because it provides more jobs for Chinese (you think the people who build them won't be Chinese?), and it would be more than willing to give the second because it would control access to those grounds anyways and could use that as leverage in the future, whatever it says now. Its not like China hasn't reneged on deals with the Philippines before.

None of this addresses the corruption issue in the Philippines, which expands beyond drugs, and which will still be present even once these projects are complete.

Respect for rule of law and respect for the state is needed to limit corruption. I don't see the first happening, and the second only flows from either the first, or fear of the state.

Duterte knows he can negotiate with China without violence. We haven't had a single war in the past three decades. Compared to America which has launched 3 invasions in the past decade alone... Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya, not counting the countless other countries that are being bombed by cruise missiles and drones like Syria and even this forum's host nation Pakistan.

Duterte knows that the "mutual defence treaty" between the Philippines and the USA doesn't mean anything anyway, since they lost Scarborough shoal to China in 2012, and America did nothing. In fact the USA did not even sanction China for $0.01 for it.

I think maybe he feels that coming to the table and negotiating with China is worth more than that. Our position in the SCS is open to negotiation, as long as the other party is reasonable.

 

[anon45]

Duterte knows he can negotiate with China without violence. We haven't had a single war in the past three decades. Compared to America which has launched 3 invasions in the past decade alone... Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya, not counting the countless other countries that are being bombed by cruise missiles and drones like Syria and even this forum's host nation Pakistan.

Intentions can change very quickly as we are witnessing here, capabilities do not. That's precisely my point, and the core focus of geopolitics.

Duterte can negotiate, that doesn't mean he'll get what he wants. You know this... unless you think there is a realistic possibility that the Chinese won't lay claim to what it claims as its own, and will leave its vulnerable trade routes open to the whims of the next election when it could have done otherwise?

Duterte knows that the "mutual defence treaty" between the Philippines and the USA doesn't mean anything anyway, since they lost Scarborough shoal to China in 2012, and America did nothing. In fact the USA did not even sanction China for $0.01 for it.

True, and that's something I disagreed with, but for what its worth the Philippines didn't do anything to force the issue either. If the Filipinos aren't willing to step up for the defense of their own land, why should we?

Maybe the issue isn't as dear to the Philippines as Duterte pretends, in which case why did they want us back?

If that is the case then it makes sense.

I think maybe he feels that coming to the table and negotiating with China is worth more than that. Our position in the SCS is open to negotiation, as long as the other party is reasonable.

I think China is open to some negotiation on fishing and development (jobs for the Chinese!), I also think it has points that it won't budge on that either Duterte naively hopes it will budge on after cutting ties with the US, or more likely cares less about than he pretends to.

Basically a discussion of terms of surrender.

This is bouyed by his deep personal dislike of Americans.


I also think this won't solve the deep problems that will still exist in Philippine government. which will stunt its growth and continue to birth deep poverty and corruption

That can never be solved by outside help, only the Filipinos can fix their own country. Even the greatest tools are worthless when misused.

The only way to fix that is first and foremost the respect of rule of law and its own constitution, which Duterte has shown he does not respect.

without that there can be no respect of the state. There can still be fear though. Maybe Duterte will try to fix it through fear of his power, in which case breaking with the US is timely, because Duterte will become our adversary in the future in that case, and he'll need protection elsewhere.

:edit: just noticed that this was posted in the chinese defence section, my bad mods...

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This is bouyed by his deep personal dislike of Americans.

I do think Duterte is coming from a position of excessive emotionalism on this issue.

In fact all sides should aim to be as pragmatic as possible. Destablization of the regional economy is not in anyone's interests.

 

[anon45]

I do think Duterte is coming from a position of excessive emotionalism on this issue.

In fact all sides should aim to be as pragmatic as possible. Destablization of the regional economy is not in anyone's interests.

Well it looks to be to the benefit of China, so be happy about it. (but gracious in the 'victory' please) .

The 'game' is far from over but it is a blow that will force the US to adjust its strategy (assuming the collapse of this alliance).

 

[Zsari]

Intentions can change very quickly as we are witnessing here, capabilities do not. That's precisely my point, and the core focus of geopolitics.

Duterte can negotiate, that doesn't mean he'll get what he wants. You know this... unless you think there is a realistic possibility that the Chinese won't lay claim to what it claims as its own, and will leave its vulnerable trade routes open to the whims of the next election when it could have done otherwise?

True, and that's something I disagreed with, but for what its worth the Philippines didn't do anything to force the issue either. If the Filipinos aren't willing to step up for the defense of their own land, why should we?

Maybe the issue isn't as dear to the Philippines as Duterte pretends, in which case why did they want us back?

If that is the case then it makes sense.


I think China is open to some negotiation on fishing and development (jobs for the Chinese!), I also think it has points that it won't budge on that either Duterte naively hopes it will budge on after cutting ties with the US, or more likely cares less about than he pretends to.

Basically a discussion of terms of surrender.

This is bouyed by his deep personal dislike of Americans.


I also think this won't solve the deep problems that will still exist in Philippine government. which will stunt its growth and continue to birth deep poverty and corruption

That can never be solved by outside help, only the Filipinos can fix their own country. Even the greatest tools are worthless when misused.

The only way to fix that is first and foremost the respect of rule of law and its own constitution, which Duterte has shown he does not respect.

without that there can be no respect of the state. There can still be fear though. Maybe Duterte will try to fix it through fear of his power, in which case breaking with the US is timely, because Duterte will become our adversary in the future in that case, and he'll need protection elsewhere.

:edit: just noticed that this was posted in the chinese defence section, my bad mods...

He is far from naive, and that's why he is not going to cut tie with the US. Alot of tough talk against Obama is targeted to garner more concession since he knows Philippines is a very important piece in the US containment plan against China. Getting insulted afterall is a very small price for geopolitical power struggle between major powers. Other than nationalism, there are few points in these reefs for the Philippines.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

It will only happen if China were wise enough to seize this moment, and come to a settlement with Philippines. Something that both sides can agree on, like perhaps withdrawing from Scarborough Shoal, in exchange of Philippines acceptance of Chinese sovereignty on other islands, or something.

Duterte's 5 years are the best chance China will get to advance its interests. It would be foolish to miss this opportunity by not finalizing a deal with Philippines.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

 

[j20blackdragon]

The Philippines is smart enough not to be the proverbial grass. Now China can focus on the last remaining country Vietnam.

 

[Sanchez]

It will only happen if China were wise enough to seize this moment, and come to a settlement with Philippines. Something that both sides can agree on, like perhaps withdrawing from Scarborough Shoal, in exchange of Philippines acceptance of Chinese sovereignty on other islands, or something.

Duterte's 5 years are the best chance China will get to advance its interests. It would be foolish to miss this opportunity by not finalizing a deal with Philippines.

Pinoys are perhaps more interested in having a share of natural resources under SCS than the sovereignty rights that they claimed only from recent years. They are different from the Viets. Viets claim a territory almost as large as the traditional claims by China.

It's China's policy that natural resources can be dealt with but not the sovereignty of the rocks.