The Chinese Army Flops in India. What Will Xi Do Next?

[Joe1351]

The Chinese Army Flops in India. What Will Xi Do Next?

Xi Jingping's desire for regional—and global—hegemony knows no bounds.

www.newsweek.com

GORDON G. CHANG , AUTHOR, COMMENTATOR, LAWYER
ON 9/11/20 AT 8:00 AM EDT

In China, "another brutal purge" is coming.

Ruler Xi Jinping, already roiling the Communist Party with a "rectification" campaign and mass persecution of foes, has risked his future with recent high-profile incursions into Indian-controlled territory.

Unfortunately for Xi, he is the "architect" of these aggressive moves into India and his People's Liberation Army (PLA) has unexpectedly flopped.

The Chinese army's failures on the Indian border will have consequences. As an initial matter, they give Xi an excuse to pick up the pace of replacing adversaries in the armed forces with loyal elements. Heads, therefore, will roll.
More important, the failures motivate China's aggressive ruler—who as chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission, is the leader of the PLA—to launch another offensive against Indian positions.

Beginning in early May, Chinese forces advanced south of the Line of Actual Control, the temporary border between the two giants, principally in three separate areas in Ladakh, high in the Himalayas. The boundary is not well-defined, and for years Chinese troops trespassed into Indian-controlled territory, especially after Xi became Party general secretary in November 2012.

The May incursions took New Delhi by surprise. As Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies tells Newsweek, Moscow in April had assured India that large-scale Chinese maneuvers in its Tibet Autonomous Region were not preparations for a move below the Line.

China also took India by surprise on June 15 in the Galwan Valley, the northernmost of the three areas of incursion. In a premediated move, Chinese troops killed 20 Indian soldiers. It was the first deadly confrontation between the two giants in 45 years.

Newsweek subscription offers >

Beijing is accustomed to getting its way in disputed territory, especially because Indian leaders and soldiers, "psychologically paralyzed" by their loss in the 1962 border war with China, played only defense.

Paralyzed no more. China is thought to have suffered at least 43 deaths in the Galwan clash. Paskal says the number of Chinese killed could exceed 60. Indian troops fought back ferociously. Beijing won't admit the extent of the debacle.

Then, beginning late last month, for the first time in a half-century, India carried out an offensive against China, taking back high ground the Chinese recently grabbed. China's forces were surprised when Indian troops mounted their attempt to retake strategic high points. Stunned Chinese soldiers retreated.

China's subsequent efforts to counter the Indian moves proved ineffective. At least for the moment, India's troops, in the southernmost of the three areas of conflict, are in control of territory once in Chinese hands.

Can the Dragon fight? The Ground Force of the People's Liberation Army can move against undefended targets, as a series of incursions south of the Line of Actual Control demonstrate, but it is not clear how effective it is in battle.

The Ground Force does not have a track record of success in contested situations. Its last major engagement was in 1979 when, in the effort to "teach Vietnam a lesson," the Chinese launched what they called a "defensive counterattack" into Vietnamese territory and, in the process, were repelled and humiliated by their much smaller neighbor.

Now, after decades of an unprecedented modernization effort, the Ground Force is far better equipped and trained, but it is apparently not much more effective on the battlefield.

India is not giving the invaders the opportunity to improve. Both sides have just accused the other of violating decades-old rules of engagement by firing warning shots. It appears, however, the Chinese are the ones closer to the truth: India's troops are displaying newfound boldness.

India has effectively ditched these rules intended to limit casualties. "The game has changed," Paskal told me. "You can say the Indians are more aggressive or more aggressively defensive, but they are in fact bolder and better."

Indian plane flying near Chinese-Indian borderMOHD ARHAAN ARCHER/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
We are going to learn more about Chinese capabilities soon. The setback in the Himalayas poses problems for Xi, which means it poses a problem for everyone else. Jayadeva Ranade, a former senior Indian intelligence official and now head of the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, said Xi needs "a victory" and could force further conflict in Ladakh.

In that conflict, the Chinese, Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center tells Newsweek, could roll out "joint mechanized warfare for which they have been preparing for 30 years."

Given the rapid buildup of Indian forces and their high state of readiness, Xi is not assured of the success that Ranade believes he craves and needs—especially because India's army has brought mechanized vehicles of its own to Ladakh.

In China's highly politicized system, the setbacks in Ladakh cannot be perceived as Xi's fault, so he will almost surely purge elements of the military. "PLA leaders begin to see little choice but to undertake offensive military actions to avoid becoming a victim of Xi's internal terror," Fisher says.

"What we are learning in 2020," Fisher notes, "is that Xi wants victories, and as the PLA is judged to have reached requisite levels of strength by rearming and reorganization, Xi is increasingly willing to use the military."

China's leader has shown he is good at political mobilization of the army and that he can spend large sums on military equipment. He has also perfected the art of intimidating other countries.

Xi Jinping, however, has yet to show his military, in a fight, is worth a damn.

Other nations will take notice that China's military is deficient. Why is the PLA less than the sum of its parts? It can be excessive political control of army operations—a problem in all communist militaries—or something else. Yet the failure to push around the Indian military means Xi's ability to intimidate anyone is much reduced.

Unfortunately, it looks like China's leader, who had looked invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, he appears absolutely determined to make his point by launching another attempt to break India apart.

 

[Beast]

Writing garbage and try fool the mass will not deflect yourselves from reality of Indian army and modi failure.

 

[Leishangthem]

BY GORDON G. CHANG ,the maniac who predicted the The Coming Collapse of China in 2001.

 

[Joe1351]

How India and China bought peace - for now

The countries say they will end a violent border stand-off, but differences will be hard to overcome.

www.bbc.com

After months of worsening tensions on their contested Himalayan border, India and China surprised many by announcing that troops are to quickly disengage.
The joint announcement followed a marathon meeting between Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Moscow.
It came despite spiralling rhetoric between the nuclear-armed neighbours, which had suggested increasing hostility.
Earlier in the week, China's state-run Global Times had said Chinese troops would "quickly deal a heavy blow to Indian troops, and they will be all annihilated" if Delhi provoked a war.
India, too, had upped the ante, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh saying "there should be no doubt" about the country's resolve to protect its territorial integrity.
The statements reflected the reality on the ground: a hostile face-off between troops.

Both countries still have a huge deployment in the region where they have overlapping territorial claims - and overcoming their differences will not be easy.
'Ice breaker' envoy
So, what made the countries agree to de-escalate, when few expected it to happen?
Many observers, including Michael Kugelman, deputy director at the Wilson Center think-tank, believe that both countries were ready for a confrontation, but they also realised that a war, even a limited one, was not an option.

"It would have been catastrophic for both countries and the wider region. The economic stakes were too high to risk a war," he said.
The fact that Mr Jaishankar served as ambassador in Beijing for many years and is known to share good relations with Chinese diplomats appears to have helped.
It did break the ice, Mr Kugelman says, adding that personal relations often play a role in crucial diplomatic negotiations.

• India-China border dispute explained in 400 words
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• China and India face off on the roof of the world

Weather, an unlikely factor, may have also played a role. The higher ridges of the Galwan Valley become inhospitable in winters.
Lieutenant General (retired) Vinod Bhatia, who served in the Indian army, says troops are used to operating in harsh conditions, but "given a chance, both armies would want to avoid that".
Reports also suggest that Indian troops recently occupied some ridges overlooking Chinese posts. Neither country has officially confirmed the reports.
"India may have used this advantage as a bargaining chip," Lt-Gen Bhatia adds.
Both countries also have many other crises to deal with. India's Covid-19 caseload continues to rise at an alarming rate and its economy is suffering. Any armed confrontation would affect the country's ability to overcome these issues.
China, meanwhile, has tensions with the US and a host of other countries to deal with, as well as global condemnation of its controversial security law in Hong Kong.
How soon could peace be restored?
Analysts say it's difficult to predict.
Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington, says the joint declaration lacks details.
Firstly, it doesn't mention the Line of Actual Control (LAC) - the de facto boundary separating the countries.
"Several points along the LAC are contentious where troops are still stationed, so there is no clarity on the resolution of these issues," she says.

De-escalation takes time, says Lt-Gen Bhatia, and it will take longer in the current scenario.
"The area is too big and it will take time for commanders to come to an understanding. The military-level talks will happen when tensions are still high and emotions are raw," he says.
What caused the escalation will also determine how quickly disengagement can happen. A major factor cited as a source of tension is a new road that connects Indian army stations in the region to a forward air base.

But Ms Yun believes the road can't be the only source because its construction took 20 years and "it wasn't a secret".

She believes many factors, including India's controversial decision to revoke a law that gave special status to the region and Washington's improving relations with Delhi, played a role.
"Beijing felt punishing India will give a warning to Delhi and Washington at the same time. But what they did not calculate was that India will refuse to back down," she says.
China has been in diplomatic confrontation with a number of countries since US officials accused it of not controlling the coronavirus outbreak effectively.

IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionIndia has expedited the construction of roads along its border with China
So, they became more aggressive, she says, adding that this was reflected in the statements of Beijing officials in recent days. Aggression has been a key factor in China's foreign policy - particularly in recent months. And Chinese state media often remind the country's neighbours of its superior military might.
This happened during the stand-off with India as well - but only in the past few days.
Officials in Delhi and Beijing were largely restrained in their comments in June and July, even after the Galwan clash that left the Indian soldiers dead.
Mr Kugleman says this was because they didn't want to undo PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping's efforts in improving relations. The two have met 18 times since Mr Modi came to power in 2014.
"But it all came undone in recent days, and now it will be interesting to see how China and India sell the announcement to their people," he says.
Ms Yun says China will find it tricky to reverse the rhetoric because "it can't come across as weak or bullied by India".
Resolving these core issues, including unsettled disputes going back decades, along the LAC that stretches for 3,440km (2,100 miles), will not be resolved in a few days.
"So, it's a good start," Mr Kugleman says. "Talks are better than no talks, but we just have to be cautiously optimistic."

 

[dbc]

BY GORDON G. CHANG ,the maniac who predicted the The Coming Collapse of China in 2001.

He is citing Cleo Paskal an Associate Fellow at the Foundation of Military and Political Power. As to how Ms. Cleo knows of 60 Chinese deaths at the border is unclear.

 

[Leishangthem]

He is citing Cleo Paskal an Associate Fellow at the Foundation of Military and Political Power. As to how Ms. Cleo knows of 60 Chinese deaths at the border is unclear.

Informed by PLA!!! (sarcasm)
Cleo who?
the nobody ,who 's a writer at fraud Indian site called The Sunday guardian, for trolling?-> https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/ ?

Imagine citing someone that writes for a shitty fake news Indian site that even nobody in India cares about? The clutch at straws desperation is real.

 

[lonelyman]

BY GORDON G. CHANG ,the maniac who predicted the The Coming Collapse of China in 2001.

yet he still appears on TV regularly talking bullshit, amazed people become so dumb because they like to hear what they want to hear

 

[dbc]

Informed by PLA!!! (sarcasm)
Cleo who?
the nobody ,who 's a writer at fraud Indian site called The Sunday guardian, for trolling?-> https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/ ?

Imagine citing someone that writes for a shitty fake news Indian site that nobody in India even cares about? The clutch at straws desperation is real.

I don't know of her, but I do know of her institute the Chatham House, a world-leading policy institute, with a mission to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.

You may of course choose to disregard. But something has the Chinese all hot and bothered a fracus at the border does not usually get them this riled up.

Any way, who knows; your desire to become a Chinese national may soon become reality.
Good luck!

 

[Leishangthem]

I don't know of her, but I do know of her institute the Chatham House, a world-leading policy institute, with a mission to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.

You may of course choose to disregard. But something has the Chinese all hot and bothered a fracus at the border does not usually get them this riled up.

Any who, your desire to become a Chinese national may soon become reality.
Good luck!

Any one with working braincell will get she's some troll that want to make living parroting Indian version of bs, and instigating conflicts,a FDD shill and a troll.

She works as Adjunct Faculty, Department of Geopolitics, Manipal University in India .


Now after failed prospects in any reputable firm,she's a fake news propagator at the shitty Indian fake site called "the sunday guardian to sow animosity with china using Indian fake new culture,->

You searched for Cleo Paskal - The Sunday Guardian Live

Her twitter is diarrhea of Indian fake news.---->https://twitter.com/CleoPaskal.

One have to be insane to take some manipal faculty's words about chinese pla .Her intentions are clear.

 

[Figaro]

The Chinese Army Flops in India. What Will Xi Do Next?

Xi Jingping's desire for regional—and global—hegemony knows no bounds.

www.newsweek.com

GORDON G. CHANG , AUTHOR, COMMENTATOR, LAWYER
ON 9/11/20 AT 8:00 AM EDT

In China, "another brutal purge" is coming.

Ruler Xi Jinping, already roiling the Communist Party with a "rectification" campaign and mass persecution of foes, has risked his future with recent high-profile incursions into Indian-controlled territory.

Unfortunately for Xi, he is the "architect" of these aggressive moves into India and his People's Liberation Army (PLA) has unexpectedly flopped.

The Chinese army's failures on the Indian border will have consequences. As an initial matter, they give Xi an excuse to pick up the pace of replacing adversaries in the armed forces with loyal elements. Heads, therefore, will roll.
More important, the failures motivate China's aggressive ruler—who as chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission, is the leader of the PLA—to launch another offensive against Indian positions.

Beginning in early May, Chinese forces advanced south of the Line of Actual Control, the temporary border between the two giants, principally in three separate areas in Ladakh, high in the Himalayas. The boundary is not well-defined, and for years Chinese troops trespassed into Indian-controlled territory, especially after Xi became Party general secretary in November 2012.

The May incursions took New Delhi by surprise. As Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies tells Newsweek, Moscow in April had assured India that large-scale Chinese maneuvers in its Tibet Autonomous Region were not preparations for a move below the Line.

China also took India by surprise on June 15 in the Galwan Valley, the northernmost of the three areas of incursion. In a premediated move, Chinese troops killed 20 Indian soldiers. It was the first deadly confrontation between the two giants in 45 years.

Newsweek subscription offers >

Beijing is accustomed to getting its way in disputed territory, especially because Indian leaders and soldiers, "psychologically paralyzed" by their loss in the 1962 border war with China, played only defense.

Paralyzed no more. China is thought to have suffered at least 43 deaths in the Galwan clash. Paskal says the number of Chinese killed could exceed 60. Indian troops fought back ferociously. Beijing won't admit the extent of the debacle.

Then, beginning late last month, for the first time in a half-century, India carried out an offensive against China, taking back high ground the Chinese recently grabbed. China's forces were surprised when Indian troops mounted their attempt to retake strategic high points. Stunned Chinese soldiers retreated.

China's subsequent efforts to counter the Indian moves proved ineffective. At least for the moment, India's troops, in the southernmost of the three areas of conflict, are in control of territory once in Chinese hands.

Can the Dragon fight? The Ground Force of the People's Liberation Army can move against undefended targets, as a series of incursions south of the Line of Actual Control demonstrate, but it is not clear how effective it is in battle.

The Ground Force does not have a track record of success in contested situations. Its last major engagement was in 1979 when, in the effort to "teach Vietnam a lesson," the Chinese launched what they called a "defensive counterattack" into Vietnamese territory and, in the process, were repelled and humiliated by their much smaller neighbor.

Now, after decades of an unprecedented modernization effort, the Ground Force is far better equipped and trained, but it is apparently not much more effective on the battlefield.

India is not giving the invaders the opportunity to improve. Both sides have just accused the other of violating decades-old rules of engagement by firing warning shots. It appears, however, the Chinese are the ones closer to the truth: India's troops are displaying newfound boldness.

India has effectively ditched these rules intended to limit casualties. "The game has changed," Paskal told me. "You can say the Indians are more aggressive or more aggressively defensive, but they are in fact bolder and better."

Indian plane flying near Chinese-Indian borderMOHD ARHAAN ARCHER/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
We are going to learn more about Chinese capabilities soon. The setback in the Himalayas poses problems for Xi, which means it poses a problem for everyone else. Jayadeva Ranade, a former senior Indian intelligence official and now head of the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, said Xi needs "a victory" and could force further conflict in Ladakh.

In that conflict, the Chinese, Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center tells Newsweek, could roll out "joint mechanized warfare for which they have been preparing for 30 years."

Given the rapid buildup of Indian forces and their high state of readiness, Xi is not assured of the success that Ranade believes he craves and needs—especially because India's army has brought mechanized vehicles of its own to Ladakh.

In China's highly politicized system, the setbacks in Ladakh cannot be perceived as Xi's fault, so he will almost surely purge elements of the military. "PLA leaders begin to see little choice but to undertake offensive military actions to avoid becoming a victim of Xi's internal terror," Fisher says.

"What we are learning in 2020," Fisher notes, "is that Xi wants victories, and as the PLA is judged to have reached requisite levels of strength by rearming and reorganization, Xi is increasingly willing to use the military."

China's leader has shown he is good at political mobilization of the army and that he can spend large sums on military equipment. He has also perfected the art of intimidating other countries.

Xi Jinping, however, has yet to show his military, in a fight, is worth a damn.

Other nations will take notice that China's military is deficient. Why is the PLA less than the sum of its parts? It can be excessive political control of army operations—a problem in all communist militaries—or something else. Yet the failure to push around the Indian military means Xi's ability to intimidate anyone is much reduced.

Unfortunately, it looks like China's leader, who had looked invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, he appears absolutely determined to make his point by launching another attempt to break India apart.

Lol this is coming from the same guy who said China would collapse in the 90s, 00s, and 10s. This guy does not any credibility left whatsoever.

 

[casual]

BY GORDON G. CHANG ,the maniac who predicted the The Coming Collapse of China in 2001.

hehe, sometimes i wonder if this guy is actually an ccp asset always feeding lies to western governments.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

As to how Ms. Cleo knows of 60 Chinese deaths at the border is unclear.

 

[Figaro]

Beginning in early May, Chinese forces advanced south of the Line of Actual Control, the temporary border between the two giants, principally in three separate areas in Ladakh, high in the Himalayas.


Lmao looks like Mr. Gordon Chang does not even know the basic geography of the LAC or Ladakh.

 

[fallstuff]

He is citing Cleo Paskal an Associate Fellow at the Foundation of Military and Political Power. As to how Ms. Cleo knows of 60 Chinese deaths at the border is unclear.

Ms. Cleo is actually a psychic !

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Cleo

 

[mig25]

Ruler Xi Jinping, already roiling the Communist Party with a "rectification" campaign and mass persecution of foes, has risked his future with recent high-profile incursions into Indian-controlled territory.

Unfortunately for Xi, he is the "architect" of these aggressive moves into India and his People's Liberation Army (PLA) has unexpectedly flopped.

The Chinese army's failures on the Indian border will have consequences. As an initial matter, they give Xi an excuse to pick up the pace of replacing adversaries in the armed forces with loyal elements. Heads, therefore, will roll.

More important, the failures motivate China's aggressive ruler—who as chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission, is the leader of the PLA—to launch another offensive against Indian positions.

Beginning in early May, Chinese forces advanced south of the Line of Actual Control, the temporary border between the two giants, principally in three separate areas in Ladakh, high in the Himalayas. The boundary is not well-defined, and for years Chinese troops trespassed into Indian-controlled territory, especially after Xi became Party general secretary in November 2012.

The May incursions took New Delhi by surprise. As Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies tells Newsweek, Moscow in April had assured India that large-scale Chinese maneuvers in its Tibet Autonomous Region were not preparations for a move below the Line.

China also took India by surprise on June 15 in the Galwan Valley, the northernmost of the three areas of incursion. In a premediated move, Chinese troops killed 20 Indian soldiers. It was the first deadly confrontation between the two giants in 45 years.

Beijing is accustomed to getting its way in disputed territory, especially because Indian leaders and soldiers, "psychologically paralyzed" by their loss in the 1962 border war with China, played only defense.

Paralyzed no more. China is thought to have suffered at least 43 deaths in the Galwan clash. Paskal says the number of Chinese killed could exceed 60. Indian troops fought back ferociously. Beijing won't admit the extent of the debacle.

Then, beginning late last month, for the first time in a half-century, India carried out an offensive against China, taking back high ground the Chinese recently grabbed. China's forces were surprised when Indian troops mounted their attempt to retake strategic high points. Stunned Chinese soldiers retreated.

China's subsequent efforts to counter the Indian moves proved ineffective. At least for the moment, India's troops, in the southernmost of the three areas of conflict, are in control of territory once in Chinese hands.

Can the Dragon fight? The Ground Force of the People's Liberation Army can move against undefended targets, as a series of incursions south of the Line of Actual Control demonstrate, but it is not clear how effective it is in battle.

The Ground Force does not have a track record of success in contested situations. Its last major engagement was in 1979 when, in the effort to "teach Vietnam a lesson," the Chinese launched what they called a "defensive counterattack" into Vietnamese territory and, in the process, were repelled and humiliated by their much smaller neighbor.

Now, after decades of an unprecedented modernization effort, the Ground Force is far better equipped and trained, but it is apparently not much more effective on the battlefield.

India is not giving the invaders the opportunity to improve. Both sides have just accused the other of violating decades-old rules of engagement by firing warning shots. It appears, however, the Chinese are the ones closer to the truth: India's troops are displaying newfound boldness.

India has effectively ditched these rules intended to limit casualties. "The game has changed," Paskal told me. "You can say the Indians are more aggressive or more aggressively defensive, but they are in fact bolder and better."

We are going to learn more about Chinese capabilities soon. The setback in the Himalayas poses problems for Xi, which means it poses a problem for everyone else. Jayadeva Ranade, a former senior Indian intelligence official and now head of the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, said Xi needs "a victory" and could force further conflict in Ladakh.

In that conflict, the Chinese, Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center tells Newsweek, could roll out "joint mechanized warfare for which they have been preparing for 30 years."

Given the rapid buildup of Indian forces and their high state of readiness, Xi is not assured of the success that Ranade believes he craves and needs—especially because India's army has brought mechanized vehicles of its own to Ladakh.

In China's highly politicized system, the setbacks in Ladakh cannot be perceived as Xi's fault, so he will almost surely purge elements of the military. "PLA leaders begin to see little choice but to undertake offensive military actions to avoid becoming a victim of Xi's internal terror," Fisher says.

"What we are learning in 2020," Fisher notes, "is that Xi wants victories, and as the PLA is judged to have reached requisite levels of strength by rearming and reorganization, Xi is increasingly willing to use the military."

China's leader has shown he is good at political mobilization of the army and that he can spend large sums on military equipment. He has also perfected the art of intimidating other countries.

Xi Jinping, however, has yet to show his military, in a fight, is worth a damn.

Other nations will take notice that China's military is deficient. Why is the PLA less than the sum of its parts? It can be excessive political control of army operations—a problem in all communist militaries—or something else. Yet the failure to push around the Indian military means Xi's ability to intimidate anyone is much reduced.

Unfortunately, it looks like China's leader, who had looked invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, he appears absolutely determined to make his point by launching another attempt to break India apart.

The Chinese Army Flops in India. What Will Xi Do Next?

Xi Jingping's desire for regional—and global—hegemony knows no bounds.

www.newsweek.com