The Chinese are now buying as much stuff as Americans, a game-changer for the world economy

[beijingwalker]

The Chinese are now buying as much stuff as Americans, a game-changer for the world economy
By Heather Long January 11 at 11:10 AM

The mighty force of consumerism has taken hold in China. In 2018, retail sales in China are expected to equal or surpass sales in the United States for the first time, another definitive marker in China's rise to economic superpower status. The growth of China's domestic retail market is luring everyone from automakers to make up companies that want to cash in on the country's growing middle class, but it also serves as another complication in President Trump's quest to transform U.S.-China trade.

Retail sales in China are on track to hit just over $5.8 trillion this year, according to Mizuho, a Japanese bank. It's a stunning rise from a decade ago, when retail sales in China were a quarter of those in the United States. China's rapidly growing middle class has been eager to buy brand-name clothes, cars and cellphones, among other products. Shanghai is now referred to in fashion circles as “Paris of the East.” Their spending habits have been supported by fatter paychecks, with China's income per capita jumping from about $2,000 a year a decade ago to over $8,000 a year now.

“China's best bargaining chip is its massive and fast-growing domestic market,” says Jianguang Shen, chief China economist for Mizuho, who pointed out the retail trend in a recent presentation in Washington, D.C. “This will change the balance (of power) tremendously, as it is first time when the U.S. is dealing with a market of equal size in a potential trade war.”

On the campaign trail, Trump railed against China as the “economic enemy” of the American people. He harped on the fact that the United States buys far more than it sells to China. The United States ran a $310 billion trade deficit with China in 2016. But Trump has softened his tone on China lately, especially after he visited China in November, and the countries have jointly faced escalating nuclear tensions with North Korea.

Stephen K. Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist, was one of the harshest critics of China in the White House. “To me, the economic war with China is everything," Bannon said over the summer. His excommunication from the Trump fold might also reduce the urgency in the White House to go after China.

Still, the two nations continue to dance around each other in a quest for global and economic dominance. Both sides continue to look for leverage over the other. On Wednesday morning, a Bloomberg story suggesting the Chinese government might halt its purchases of U.S. Treasurys was enough to temporarily spook U.S. markets, sending stocks sliding in early trading. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys. There are also more playful jabs between the countries. A mall in northern China put up a giant dog balloon that bears a striking resemblance to Trump.

If Trump really wants to go after China on trade, “we will need leverage and we will need allies,” says Olin Wethington, who served as a special envoy to China in 2005 and as an economic adviser to President George H.W. Bush. Wethington's name has surfaced for a possible role in Trump's State Department.

Wethington says he personally prefers bringing trade cases against China over the blanket tariffs Trump talked about on the campaign trail, which many warn would spark a trade war that could harm the U.S. economy and the stock market's rapid climb.

While Trump wants to show his blue-collar base he is being tough on trade, big businesses don't want to see any dramatic actions. Over 20 percent of sales at companies like General Motors, Boeing and Apple now come from China, says Shen, the Mizuho economist. Any restrictions on Chinese access to the United States would likely be met with barriers to American companies selling in China.

“China is one of the most important markets for many U.S. multinational companies,” Shen says. “This should lend China immense bargaining power.”

A record 17.6 million vehicles were sold in the United States in 2016, for example, but that was far below the 24 million passenger cars sold in China. U.S. automakers account for about 1 out of every 5 cars sold in China, even though the communist government placed a 10 percent tax on luxury cars and trucks imported from the United States.

But MIT economist David Autor, an authority on trade and automation, thinks the United States still has substantial leverage in any debate with President Xi Jinping of China.

“China exports a substantial piece of its GDP to the United States. They are very dependent on our markets,” Autor says. The United States currently buys 19 percent of China's total exports.

One area where there's a lot of agreement across the political spectrum is to go after China's theft of U.S. intellectual property. It's an increasingly important area as the race for global dominance in robotics, biotech and new energy takes off. Trump has been mulling whether to take action, although he's largely been focused on Chinese steel and aluminum. Trump has pointed to the tariffs President Ronald Reagan put on Japanese semiconductors in the 1980s as a model he wants to emulate, but the difference is the U.S. economy was far larger than Japan's at the time. Now the United States faces an economic equal.

As Trump deliberates what to do, Autor says the president has already handed China a great victory on trade.

“Trump did China the biggest favor of the last 10 years by tearing up TPP (the Trans-Pacific Partnership)," Autor says, calling it the best gift to China since the communist country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. “If you want to look for an inflection point in rate of U.S. global decline, we’ll probably be able to point to tearing up TPP.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...for-the-world-economy/?utm_term=.7d946c3f2cb6

 

[somebozo]

The difference is that Chinese are also producing a lot of stuff they consume..where as US has a huge trade deficit with China..

 

[beijingwalker]

Trump has pointed to the tariffs President Ronald Reagan put on Japanese semiconductors in the 1980s as a model he wants to emulate, but the difference is the U.S. economy was far larger than Japan's at the time. Now the United States faces an economic equal.

China is not Japan, China is unstoppable.

 

[Baby Leone]

its so sad that Pakistan the next door neighbor and best buddy of China is still not able to take benefit of it....some thing is wrong in our relations i think.

 

[Dungeness]

This is just the beginning.

 

[beijingwalker]

its so sad that Pakistan the next door neighbor and best buddy of China is still not able to take benefit of it....some thing is wrong in our relations i think.

What is wrong in our relations do you think and how should we fix it?

 

[Menthol]

I don't why... But I feel China will outcompete USA and many countries around the world.

The trade war between China and USA will be intensely increasing year by year.

Usually it's developing countries, who is trying to protect their market from being out slaughtered by developed countries products. But this time, it's USA who will do it against China.

China is not Japan, China is unstoppable.

China has a huge domestic market. Despite it was banned from USA, it will still grow.

 

[Baby Leone]

What is wrong in our relations do you think and how should we fix it?

there are some barriers that with that good partner ship with Pakistan still Pakistan is not able to enter and take benefits of Chinese market.

 

[RealNapster]

What is wrong in our relations do you think and how should we fix it?

You can't stop a Pakistani from daydreaming and can't make him to work just like a random Chinese work. That's wrong with Pakistani population. And then we will blame our incompetence on our relationship with you. That's the bonus part

 

[Yingluck]

China consumer demand is able to sustain the economy instead of relying on USA consumer.

 

[Mista]

the U.S. economy was far larger than Japan's at the time. Now the United States faces an economic equal.

Not really, if we are talking purely about nominal GDP.

Right now China's GDP is around 60% of the US's, around the same as Japan in the 80s. Japan went on to approach 70% in the 1990s until the bubble burst.

Of course, China is different as her population is 4x of the US and 10x of Japan. But if we are talking about nominal GDP, the relative size to the US are similar for Japan in those times and China today.

 

[Yingluck]

Not really, if we are talking purely about nominal GDP.

Right now China's GDP is around 60% of the US's, around the same as Japan in the 80s. Japan went on to approach 70% in the 1990s until the bubble burst.

Of course, China is different as her population is 4x of the US and 10x of Japan. But if we are talking about nominal GDP, the relative size to the US are similar for Japan in those times and China today.

Unlike Japan, USA is not able to force Plaza Accord on China -- meaning no way USA can leech on China's economy.

 

[Mista]

Unlike Japan, USA is not able to force Plaza Accord on China -- meaning no way USA can leech on China's economy.

I do know that. Just pointing out the factual inaccuracies.

 

[Cybernetics]

Not really, if we are talking purely about nominal GDP.

Right now China's GDP is around 60% of the US's, around the same as Japan in the 80s. Japan went on to approach 70% in the 1990s until the bubble burst.

Of course, China is different as her population is 4x of the US and 10x of Japan. But if we are talking about nominal GDP, the relative size to the US are similar for Japan in those times and China today.

In reality I don't think Japan was 70% of US's economic strength in 1995, its underlying economy was much smaller, GDP only shows part of the story.

The Plaza Accord was signed in 1985 and that was when the bubble began in Japan. It is clear that Japan had an GDP boost starting in 1985 until 1995 (growth at 14.5%) when no fundamental changes were made to its economy, productivity should have been increasing at 5% based on the "new normal" established from 1978-1985.

1965: American GDP was $744 Billion and Japan's GDP was 12% of American economy at $91 Billion
1970: American GDP was $1.08 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 20% of American economy at $212 Billion
1975: American GDP was $1.69 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 31% of American economy at $519 Billion
1985: American GDP was $4.35 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 32% of American economy at $1.4 Trillion
2008: American GDP was $14.7 Trillion and Japan's underlying GDP was 29% of American economy at $4.3 Trillion
2017: American GDP was $19.36 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 25% of American economy at $4.88 Trillion

Since 1975 Japan's underlying economy had maintained around 30% of American economy and is currently making a gradual relative decline.

Japan will gradually phase out its multi-decade long stagnation when the underlying economy surpasses the stagnation range around $5 Trillion, likely to happen in the next decade. This will coincide with Japan's reemergence on the global stage, realistically it's more of a normalisation of Japan and less of a powerful resurgent force.

China's economic growth had largely been due to steady growth in the underlying "real" economy through moving up the value chain, exports, boosting productivity, internal consumption and innovation. Though there was heating of real estate market in some areas, growth was largely due to the previously stated factors. China's economy reached 30% of US economy in 2008. The consumption ability of Japan at 30% US gdp was higher than when China was at 30% US economy, as they were in different developmental stages, per capital income, and savings rates. In 2017 China stands at 61% of American economy but stands much firmer than Japan did during the 80's and 90's. Chinese consumers can consume more goods relative to a country with similar income levels due to the ability to indigenously produce nearly all durable and consumer goods.

 

[Mista]

In reality I don't think Japan was 70% of US's economic strength in 1995, its underlying economy was much smaller, GDP only shows part of the story.

The Plaza Accord was signed in 1985 and that was when the bubble began in Japan. It is clear that Japan had an GDP boost starting in 1985 until 1995 (growth at 14.5%) when no fundamental changes were made to its economy, productivity should have been increasing at 5% based on the "new normal" established from 1978-1985.

View attachment 447748
1965: American GDP was $744 Billion and Japan's GDP was 12% of American economy at $91 Billion
1970: American GDP was $1.08 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 20% of American economy at $212 Billion
1975: American GDP was $1.69 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 31% of American economy at $519 Billion
1985: American GDP was $4.35 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 32% of American economy at $1.4 Trillion
2008: American GDP was $14.7 Trillion and Japan's underlying GDP was 29% of American economy at $4.3 Trillion
2017: American GDP was $19.36 Trillion and Japan's GDP was 25% of American economy at $4.88 Trillion

Since 1975 Japan's underlying economy had maintained around 30% of American economy and is currently making a gradual relative decline.

Japan will gradually phase out its multi-decade long stagnation when the underlying economy surpasses the stagnation range around $5 Trillion, likely to happen in the next decade. This will coincide with Japan's reemergence on the global stage, realistically it's more of a normalisation of Japan and less of a powerful resurgent force.

View attachment 447754
China's economic growth had largely been due to steady growth in the underlying "real" economy through moving up the value chain, exports, boosting productivity, internal consumption and innovation. Though there was heating of real estate market in some areas, growth was largely due to the previously stated factors. China's economy reached 30% of US economy in 2008. The consumption ability of Japan at 30% US gdp was higher than when China was at 30% US economy, as they were in different developmental stages, per capital income, and savings rates. In 2017 China stands at 61% of American economy but stands much firmer than Japan did during the 80's and 90's. Chinese consumers can consume more goods relative to a country with similar income levels due to the ability to indigenously produce nearly all durable and consumer goods.

Yes, Japan's economy was overheated at that time and the bubble burst at the end. But again, I'm pointing out the factual inaccuracies in the article regarding the size of the economy.

Both China and Japan were about 60% the size of the US. Japan isn't 'much smaller' or China is 'equal'.