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Terrorism: sadly, the worst is still to come-Daily Times
Such is the omnipotent image of our intelligence agencies and the military that official statements are like a bikini hiding the essentials
All those who matter have spoken the army, the foreign office, the president and the prime minister as they recovered from the shock that Osama bin Laden was killed by the US in a Rambo-style operation last week. When their official statements are read together, one can easily say that this case will be presented by communications gurus as one of the worlds worst communications management examples.
Despite the fact that the foreign office and army statements have conceded the countrys failure on two counts intelligence failure because they did not know Osama was the military academys neighbour, and a security failure because the US helicopters carried out an operation of well over an hour, 150 kilometres from the Afghan border, in a primarily cantonment town of which the defenders of our borders did not know. Unfortunately there are no takers for these confessions, domestically and internationally.
Whether the doubters, which in this case is almost the entire world, are right or wrong is now the job of investigative reporters in Pakistan and the US. For the time being, such is the omnipotent image of our intelligence agencies and the military that official statements are like a bikini hiding the essentials.
The fear in the Pakistani establishment that if they accept that they knew where Osama was and they led the US to the compound, as stated by President Obama, will result in a backlash from the militant supporters of Osama is ridiculous. After all the Islamist militants are already targeting security personnel and installations.
In the week before Osama was taken out by US forces, three navy buses had been attacked in Karachi in which several people lost their lives and many were injured. This is a clear signal that the various terrorist groups want to expand their area of war against the Pakistani establishment.
Now let us take the issue of the violation of Pakistans sovereignty. The strong reaction of the media and some political leaders reflects their subjective analysis of the predicament in which Pakistan finds itself. Almost every week, one US general or admiral lands in Pakistan to consult, lobby and do some straight talking with his counterpart in Rawalpindi. When they do not fly in to Pakistan, our generals visit the US military top brass at their bases in the Middle East or all the way to the US.
The Pakistan military has had a blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with the US administration for the last six decades. The reason? Pakistans objective was to get US arms and support to secure itself against the perceived Indian threat; the USs objective, on the other hand, was to use Pakistan against the socialist bloc during the Cold War and now against the permanent global Islamic threat. After the Cold War, India quietly moved away from its non-aligned socialist leanings to a US-aligned capitalist country. This is the major shift in the regional and global politics, which Pakistani official analysts had failed to fathom, although the reality is hitting them in the shin.
Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not mince his words during his recent visit when he blamed Pakistani intelligence for nurturing the Haqqani jihadi group and protecting Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT). The fact that Osama was living in a garrison town of Pakistan has further strengthened the case of the US and India that we are abetting the terrorist outfits. Official denials cannot change this perception unless we stop believing that these terrorist organisations are our first line of defence.
A large section of the media and some political parties are outraged over the US governments pressure on Pakistan. Pakistans Chief of the Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, reacted to Mullens remarks without naming him and debunked the notion that Pakistan is not doing enough. Imran Khan has launched a movement against drone attacks that supports the Pakistani establishments demand. The establishment has to show to the American administration that public opinion is against the drone attacks.
But the question is: will the US government, which is looking for an exit from Afghanistan, listen to the Pakistani establishment and inconsequential leaders like Imran Khan? Realistically speaking, they will continue the drone attacks, as, despite the collateral damage, the attacks have also managed to take out some notorious terrorists who have been dangerous for Pakistan.
I have maintained for the last many years in my columns that if we do not stop the Afghan Taliban and their local supporters from operating from Pakistani sanctuaries, the US will not just sit back and keep on pleading. They are rightly or wrongly in Afghanistan with UN approval and have the right of hot pursuit under international law. The choice of playing a double game for Pakistan is no more. The more our establishment sides with the Afghan Taliban and India-specific terrorist organisations, the harder we will be squeezed. If the beneficiaries of the war economy think we can fool the world, they are insulting everybodys intelligence.
We are in a nutcracker. The only way out is a major shift in the national security policy that dreams about strategic depth in Afghanistan and pressurising India by supporting the jihadi organisations. It seems that the Pakistani establishment has finally made a breakthrough and has convinced the US that it has a role to play in the peace process in Afghanistan. The recent visit of the Prime Minister, Yousaf Gilani, flanked by his military and ISI chief to Kabul was significant. It was also a success because President Karzai agreed to the joint mechanism for furthering the peace process in Afghanistan. All through the last decade, Pakistan has been saying that it has a stake in the future of Afghanistan. It is this foolish desire that has embroiled the country with the terrorists.
The real problem will start when the US will pull out of Afghanistan in a couple of years and their honeymoon with us will be over. Already the couple is bickering with each other publicly. Over the last 15 years, India has not only become important for the US strategically, it has also become a major economic partner of the west. Today, India sits not only on the G-20 table but on other such world elitist forums also. It has a global say. Even our erstwhile friend China has deeper economic interests with India and has an aversion for the religiously indoctrinated militant groups.
Intense pressure on Pakistan to wind up LeT and other such organisations will be hard to resist. Our establishment will have to change its policies and work to eliminate these groups. It will not be easy as we are likely to see strong and violent resistance from the jihadi organisations all over the country. Painfully, the future is bloody. I wish my forecast is proved wrong. But that is what my heart says. Alas! The realistic mind gives me no comfort.
Such is the omnipotent image of our intelligence agencies and the military that official statements are like a bikini hiding the essentials
All those who matter have spoken the army, the foreign office, the president and the prime minister as they recovered from the shock that Osama bin Laden was killed by the US in a Rambo-style operation last week. When their official statements are read together, one can easily say that this case will be presented by communications gurus as one of the worlds worst communications management examples.
Despite the fact that the foreign office and army statements have conceded the countrys failure on two counts intelligence failure because they did not know Osama was the military academys neighbour, and a security failure because the US helicopters carried out an operation of well over an hour, 150 kilometres from the Afghan border, in a primarily cantonment town of which the defenders of our borders did not know. Unfortunately there are no takers for these confessions, domestically and internationally.
Whether the doubters, which in this case is almost the entire world, are right or wrong is now the job of investigative reporters in Pakistan and the US. For the time being, such is the omnipotent image of our intelligence agencies and the military that official statements are like a bikini hiding the essentials.
The fear in the Pakistani establishment that if they accept that they knew where Osama was and they led the US to the compound, as stated by President Obama, will result in a backlash from the militant supporters of Osama is ridiculous. After all the Islamist militants are already targeting security personnel and installations.
In the week before Osama was taken out by US forces, three navy buses had been attacked in Karachi in which several people lost their lives and many were injured. This is a clear signal that the various terrorist groups want to expand their area of war against the Pakistani establishment.
Now let us take the issue of the violation of Pakistans sovereignty. The strong reaction of the media and some political leaders reflects their subjective analysis of the predicament in which Pakistan finds itself. Almost every week, one US general or admiral lands in Pakistan to consult, lobby and do some straight talking with his counterpart in Rawalpindi. When they do not fly in to Pakistan, our generals visit the US military top brass at their bases in the Middle East or all the way to the US.
The Pakistan military has had a blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with the US administration for the last six decades. The reason? Pakistans objective was to get US arms and support to secure itself against the perceived Indian threat; the USs objective, on the other hand, was to use Pakistan against the socialist bloc during the Cold War and now against the permanent global Islamic threat. After the Cold War, India quietly moved away from its non-aligned socialist leanings to a US-aligned capitalist country. This is the major shift in the regional and global politics, which Pakistani official analysts had failed to fathom, although the reality is hitting them in the shin.
Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not mince his words during his recent visit when he blamed Pakistani intelligence for nurturing the Haqqani jihadi group and protecting Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT). The fact that Osama was living in a garrison town of Pakistan has further strengthened the case of the US and India that we are abetting the terrorist outfits. Official denials cannot change this perception unless we stop believing that these terrorist organisations are our first line of defence.
A large section of the media and some political parties are outraged over the US governments pressure on Pakistan. Pakistans Chief of the Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, reacted to Mullens remarks without naming him and debunked the notion that Pakistan is not doing enough. Imran Khan has launched a movement against drone attacks that supports the Pakistani establishments demand. The establishment has to show to the American administration that public opinion is against the drone attacks.
But the question is: will the US government, which is looking for an exit from Afghanistan, listen to the Pakistani establishment and inconsequential leaders like Imran Khan? Realistically speaking, they will continue the drone attacks, as, despite the collateral damage, the attacks have also managed to take out some notorious terrorists who have been dangerous for Pakistan.
I have maintained for the last many years in my columns that if we do not stop the Afghan Taliban and their local supporters from operating from Pakistani sanctuaries, the US will not just sit back and keep on pleading. They are rightly or wrongly in Afghanistan with UN approval and have the right of hot pursuit under international law. The choice of playing a double game for Pakistan is no more. The more our establishment sides with the Afghan Taliban and India-specific terrorist organisations, the harder we will be squeezed. If the beneficiaries of the war economy think we can fool the world, they are insulting everybodys intelligence.
We are in a nutcracker. The only way out is a major shift in the national security policy that dreams about strategic depth in Afghanistan and pressurising India by supporting the jihadi organisations. It seems that the Pakistani establishment has finally made a breakthrough and has convinced the US that it has a role to play in the peace process in Afghanistan. The recent visit of the Prime Minister, Yousaf Gilani, flanked by his military and ISI chief to Kabul was significant. It was also a success because President Karzai agreed to the joint mechanism for furthering the peace process in Afghanistan. All through the last decade, Pakistan has been saying that it has a stake in the future of Afghanistan. It is this foolish desire that has embroiled the country with the terrorists.
The real problem will start when the US will pull out of Afghanistan in a couple of years and their honeymoon with us will be over. Already the couple is bickering with each other publicly. Over the last 15 years, India has not only become important for the US strategically, it has also become a major economic partner of the west. Today, India sits not only on the G-20 table but on other such world elitist forums also. It has a global say. Even our erstwhile friend China has deeper economic interests with India and has an aversion for the religiously indoctrinated militant groups.
Intense pressure on Pakistan to wind up LeT and other such organisations will be hard to resist. Our establishment will have to change its policies and work to eliminate these groups. It will not be easy as we are likely to see strong and violent resistance from the jihadi organisations all over the country. Painfully, the future is bloody. I wish my forecast is proved wrong. But that is what my heart says. Alas! The realistic mind gives me no comfort.
