Taliban, Tajikistan embroiled in battle of words, saber-rattling

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

In Tajikistan, an Afghan Resistance Movement Simmers

Tajikistan’s objections to the current Taliban government include the potential for it to export radicalism to other countries.

nationalinterest.org

 

[Fahad20007]

Tajikistan in itself is pretty inconsequential but it is the gateway to Central Asia and the only CAR we can access through our borders via the Wakhan corridor and Xinjiang.

Plus you don't want to keep all your eggs in the Pashtun dominated Taliban. It's wise to have an alternative group to rely on, which the Khorasanis of Afghanistan can provide you. Pakistan should not alienate them.

Also, China has pretty good relations with Tajikistan (much more than it does with Afghanistan).

 

[FuturePAF]

Extracting lithium ore requires a lot of water, and more than 60% of the water resources in Central Asia are in Tajikistan.
Why didn't the Taliban give some unimportant positions to Tajiks?
If the Taliban want to develop its economy, it needs the support of all its neighbors and let Afghanistan join the economic system of the whole region.
Put down your AK47, hug all your neighbors and invite them to help you rebuild your home. Forget the hatred and pain of the past and welcome a peaceful and prosperous life in the future.

The Talibs will probably get there once the coming hard winter makes them see sense

Right now they seem to be mental transitioning from being a 20 year guerrilla army to the government. They weren’t even prepared to win this fast.

They have to save face amongst their younger commanders, keep up their revolutionary credentials. There are probably a lot of back channel negotiations happening between them and prominent people amongst the Minorities. So they don’t want to be seen as giving away hard won gains, earned by the blood of their people over the last 20 years, despite knowing what is the pragmatic transition they have to make. Probably in the coming weeks and months we will probably see them make this move slowly so as not to lose favor with their ground level fighters.

In the mean time, if the Talibs get transit trade up and running with major benefit to most of the other central Asia nations and Russia, they can veto any request by Tajikistan (under their collective defense agreement) for pre-emptive military actions against Taliban.

Also the Russians know this is just posturing by the Tajiks (because they won’t let them go adventuring); which is why the Russian representative can say there won’t be a fight.

From 10:10-10:48 the Russian representative says it straight forward
The Tajiks respond at 17:38

On a side note it is kind of ironic the Russian representative to Kabul is called Kabulov, and the American lead negotiator was also born in Kabul. Just an interesting observation.

so I agree a woman for women’s affairs minister and a Hazara for minority affairs minister should be appointed to at least reassure the voices of these people are represented. Although, Afghans don’t vote in their meetings, they try to come to a consensus, which is probably why they don’t want a woman minister. They have to know she will go along with most of what they want to do. So they are probably looking for the “right people”, that the people and the international community will accept.

 

[Kompromat]

Tajikistan will regret this.

 

[MH.Yang]

Taliban have been very patient with Tajikistan. This poodle of india have been sending weaooms and giving protection to northern alliance. They still are acting like a chihuahua and barking for no reason. Its also funny that a guy president since 27 years is preaching democracy to others.
Of taliban decides, they can really mess with Tajikistan.

I'm think you don't understand the relationship between Tajikistan and China. If China acts, India will quickly lose all its influence in Tajikistan.
Before, the Taliban were not friendly to China, the Tajik govt feared Taliban Pashtun nationalism, and China was unwilling to participate in the US war on terrorism. So China is not involved in these things.
Now the Americans have left, and the Taliban have agreed to eliminate drugs and terrorism. So China will certainly not allow India to return to Central Asia.


BTW: Tajiks also have lot influence on the Chinese govt and PLA. Even the CCP Central Committee members (equivalent to U.S. senators, who have the right to decide on the candidates for the CCP general secretary) have one Tajik.