Taiwan’s ruling party replaces pro-beijing candidate

[anon45]

Yeah, US will go to the war with another major nuclear power over a small island more than 10,000 miles away from US home soil and fought the war at said power's door step. That will happen.

Sure, if there is a security guarantee. it is a pillar of our primacy

A core interest of ours so to speak.

 

[terranMarine]

Nobody in their same mind in KMT or DPP want to repeat the political fiasco Cheng made.

 

[tranquilium]

Sure, if there is a security guarantee. it is a pillar of our primacy

A core interest of ours so to speak.

Just like Syria and Ukraine, amiright?

 

[terranMarine]

heck even DPRK case the US didn't have the mood to restart the Korean War because it will suffer a freaking humiliation if they lose. A modernized PLA + 1 mln DPRK troops versus South Korea and US, doesn't take a genius to place the bet who is gonna win Korean War v2

 

[oproh]

As long as the replacement is not pro-tokyo, then everything is good. Japan can remain delusional about being the motherland of Chinese Taipei

 

[William Hung]

LOL, us talking about strategic ambiguity while being strategically ambiguous ? LOL! I love it !

This is an interesting take... and plausible.

I think the CCP fear Japan. The evidence is in the Senkaku Isl. The CCP believe, without a doubt that it is Chinese territory occupied by Japan. Yet, other than some meaningless posturing, the CCP still does not dare to do anything about it, preferring to leave the islands under Japanese administration. Read the section specifically on the East China Sea:

Why Chinese Nationalism Could Impact the East and South China Seas VERY Differently | The National Interest

Taiwan is clever in building military-to-military relation with Japan. And Japan having a MDT with the US is icing on the cake.

 

[anon45]

Just like Syria and Ukraine, amiright?

Why on gods green earth do you think the US had a security guarantee with Syria or Ukraine of all countries ?

 

[Aepsilons]

I think the CCP fear Japan. The evidence is in the Senkaku Isl. The CCP believe, without a doubt that it is Chinese territory occupied by Japan. Yet, other than some meaningless posturing, the CCP still does not dare to do anything about it, preferring to leave the islands under Japanese administration. Read the section specifically on the East China Sea:

Why Chinese Nationalism Could Impact the East and South China Seas VERY Differently | The National Interest

Taiwan is clever in building military-to-military relation with Japan. And Japan having a MDT with the US is icing on the cake.

There is no doubt that the Senkaku Islands are clearly an inherent part of the territory of Japan, in light of historical facts and based upon international law. Indeed, the Senkaku Islands are under the valid control of Japan. There exists no issue of territorial sovereignty to be resolved concerning the Senkaku Islands.

Japan will act firmly and calmly to maintain its territorial integrity.

Japan continues to strive for peace and stability in the region, which is to be established through the observance of international law.

 

[tranquilium]

Why on gods green earth do you think the US had a security guarantee with Syria or Ukraine of all countries ?

To quote wikipedia: "The Taiwan Relations Act potentially requires the U.S. to intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan. The act states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities”. However, the decision about the nature and quantity of defense services that America will provide to Taiwan is to be determined by the President and Congress."

Yeah, that "guarantee" guarantee as much as McDonald's promise that their food are healthy and nutritional.

 

[Zsari]

Why on gods green earth do you think the US had a security guarantee with Syria or Ukraine of all countries ?

Actually US did sign a security assurance with Ukraine, in exchange for it to give up its nuclear stockpile. Matter fact all 5 nuclear power signed the memorandum.

 

[anon45]

Actually US did sign a security assurance with Ukraine, in exchange for it to give up its nuclear stockpile. Matter fact all 5 nuclear power signed the memorandum.

The budapest memorandum was not not a security guarantee

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

We have respected their independence, sovereignty, and existing borders at the time. Obviously Russia hasn't.

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or

political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;

We have refrained from threatening force, Ukraine's Territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. Our weapons are also not being used against Ukraine. Russia obviously has not.

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind;

Threats were based off non-payment, so doesn't really apply.

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear

weapons are used;

does not apply as no nuclear weapons have been used.

5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclearweapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State;

does not apply.

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

Signed in four copies having equal validity in the Ukrainian, English and Russian languages.

For Ukraine:

(Signed) Leonid D. KUCHMA

For the Russian Federation:

(Signed) Boris N. YELTSIN

For the United Kingdom of Great

Britain and Northern Ireland:

(Signed) John MAJOR

For the United States of America:

(Signed) William J. CLINTON

Nowhere in here was there a legal security obligation, only personal guarantees of not threatening Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which the US has followed through on.

Russia however did not.

Make no mistake it is a big blow to future non-proliferation efforts though.


http://www.cfr.org/nonproliferation...t-memorandums-security-assurances-1994/p32484

To quote wikipedia: "The Taiwan Relations Act potentially requires the U.S. to intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan. The act states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities”. However, the decision about the nature and quantity of defense services that America will provide to Taiwan is to be determined by the President and Congress."

Yeah, that "guarantee" guarantee as much as McDonald's promise that their food are healthy and nutritional.

As you say it can be construed as ambiguous, however US guarantees with Japan are ironclad. Closer Taiwan Japan relations and military relationships will obviously lead to a bigger Chinese focus on Japan as a military threat.

Given this the US would essentially be forced to declare war on a China invading Taiwan because China would have to attack Japan as well to make sure it goes smoothly in a scenario where Taiwan and Japan have military guarantees with each other.