Taiwanese people's rebellion due to cross-strait exchange

[Krueger]

Taiwanese people's rebellion due to cross-strait exchange

• 2014-05-05

Ma Ying-jeou during the KMT Central Standing Committee (File photo/Cheng Jen-nan)

The minister of China's Taiwan Affairs Office Zhang Zhijun announced at a regular press conference that a rare opportunity for economic cooperation across the Taiwan Strait has opened up, and China is willing to take advantage of it, stating that people across the strait are of the same family.

Although Zhang's statement expressed China's goodwill, this year's Sunflower Student Movement and more recent anti-nuclear protests show that Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou's administration can no longer depend on the incentives of cross-strait peaceful development to maintain and improve its approval rating.

China's favorable policies toward Taiwan were key for Ma in gaining people's support over the last six years and for his re-election in 2012. They are also important for peaceful development between the two countries.

The problem is that the economy in Taiwan has not improved over the last six years, and the general public's quality of life has not improved.

Also, external factors, such as Taiwan's gross domestic product and the nation's reputation, have pulled the nation down compared with the Four Asian Tigers. Domestically, the gap between the rich and the poor is widening. The cost of houses and commodities are several times higher than they were over a decade ago, while salaries remain the same.

The issue lies not only in the economics but also in a lack of confidence in Ma's administration. Ma's approval rating has been standing below 10% for a while now.

Mistrust of Ma can also be seen as mistrust of China. The question that arises is why aren't Taiwanese people reaping the benefits that China has shared?

The more China asserts that the cross-strait economic integration and development will benefit both countries, the more Taiwanese people raise doubts as to who actually reaps the benefits. Due to these concerns, student and social movements have become more widespread, with anti-Chinese sentiment first emerging after Taiwan and China signed trade agreements and finally broke out into social protests after the signing of the service trade pact, with the legislature occupied by students from March 18-April 10.

Anti-nuclear protests are representative of discontent at the widening gap between the rich and the poor, rather than relating to the issues surrounding the controversial fourth nuclear power plant.

During the last two years, China has been pressurising Ma to deal with the political issues and handle the call for mutual trust in military affairs, but after Taiwan signed a series of economic agreements with China, its economic reliance on China has increased. Its international status, however, remains the same.

Therefore, the anxiety of the Taiwanese people is mounting and has exploded through student and social movements, and the motivation behind them will have to be examined at length

Taiwanese people's rebellion due to cross-strait exchange

 

[Zero_wing]

Rebellion so funny the Maoist Imperialist neo nazi mainlanders are the real rebels in this sotry the real government of china is the nationalist Imperials well the chinese do hate each other so its true what the old saying goes " Ang magnanakaw ay galit sa kapwa magananakaw"

 

[TaiShang]

Probably one of the most cool-headed analyses on China-Chinese Taipei ties in light of recent developments:


Mainland-Taiwan economic ties already solid
Global Times

With the eye-catching Sunflower Student Movement heating up the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland, we've seen a lot of political analysis on the cross-Straits relationship, but little economic insight.

In 2012, Taiwan's ratio of dependence on trade from outside the island reached 112.59 percent, which indicates that the external market is of considerable importance to Taiwan.

Yet the global financial crisis decreased demand for goods in most developed economies. The Chinese mainland, one of the biggest and most promising markets, is like a giant magnet. Obviously, Taiwan is particularly drawn to this market.

In 2003, Taiwan gained a net trade surplus of $24.396 billion with the mainland. Since 2003, cross-Straits merchandise trade has sped up and its net trade surplus has increased with an average annual growth rate of over 10 percent.

Although affected by the global financial crisis, Taiwan's commodity exports to the mainland increased by an average $8 billion each year after 2010 when the cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, a de facto free trade deal, was signed. The mainland has now become Taiwan's largest export market.

Compared with cross-Straits trade, mutual investment between Taiwan and mainland is small. In 2011, the mainland's outward direct investment in Taiwan was $11.08 million, and its stock was only $29.35 million, accounting for 0.05 percent of Taiwan's total received external direct investment.

One reason is the mainland's comparatively short history of outward investment and its developing policies of seeking natural resources in raw material-abundant countries.

Another more important reason may come from strict cross-Straits constraints on mutual inward investment, especially investment on service industry.

The Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) between Taiwan and the mainland, signed on June 21, 2013, seems likely to herald a big change in cross-Straits service trade relations and promote further openness in service industries. According to the text of the CSSTA, the mainland will open 80 service sectors to Taiwan, while Taiwan will open 64 sectors to the mainland.

This agreement has been greatly debated and has led to massive protests in Taipei since March 18. But from an economic perspective, Taiwan in fact gains a preferential ticket to access the mainland's huge service market with a remarkable first-mover advantage.

Cross-Straits tourism has boomed since 2009. There were 5.16 million Taiwanese traveling to the mainland at the end of 2013.

Some 2.85 million mainlanders traveled to Taiwan in the same period. This frequent and substantial mobility of individuals sparks a great demand and opportunities for mutual service trade and investment.

A key point is that cross-Straits trade, investment and individual mobility are not strictly separated. If one channel is blocked, the other channels will make up and offset negative effects to a certain degree.

In the case of the cross-Straits economic relationship, the existing high cross-Straits trade volumes and booming tourism have revealed both sides' mutual real demands on the other's goods and services.

If Taiwan shuts the door to cross-Straits service investment, more demand will be fulfilled through trade, resulting in Taiwan's deeper trade dependence on the mainland market. It would not only run against Taiwan's policy of greater economic independence from the mainland, but also increase its economic risk with serious imbalance between their mutual trade and investment.

Also, trade and investment transfer from one economy to another could happen. If the CSSTA falls into abeyance, South Korea and Singapore, strong competitors with the island of Taiwan, will be motivated to compete to be the mainland's service partner.

Also, Chinese President Xi Jinping's 2014 visit to Europe brought about a joint announcement on developing a comprehensive strategic partnership with the EU. A Sino-EU free trade agreement, which had been under discussion for at least a decade, will be under greater consideration.

Therefore, the cross-Straits economic relationship is already tight and Taiwan's economy is greatly integrated into the mainland's huge economic system.

Like it or not, no one in Taiwan can really deny the great importance of the mainland to the island's economy.

The author is a visiting research fellow of New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington and PhD candidate in the School of International Business at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn