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Sun rising for Bangladesh Automotive Industry

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Sun rising for Bangladesh Automotive Industry
INDUSTRY
Mahfuz Ullah Babu
18 April, 2021, 10:45 pm
Last modified: 19 April, 2021, 12:25 pm
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A roadmap to develop automobile and automotive industry will focus initially on incentivising local assembling, then more on sourcing local components – technically called progressive manufacturing policy
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In less than a decade, the two-wheeler market in Bangladesh grew more than three times. During this period the source of supply shifted from the imports to the local manufacturing which accounts for more than 90% of the units sold here annually.
The government, in collaboration with partner nations, foreign investors and the local private sector, is trying to replicate the motorcycle success story in automobiles which is raising hope for the development of Bangladeshi automobile and automotive industry in coming years.
The roadmap will focus initially on incentivising local assembling, then more on sourcing local components – technically called progressive manufacturing policy.
In a webinar titled " Automobile Industry Development: Present Situation and Future Prospects" organised by the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) on Sunday the speakers outlined the potentials and challenges on the way to have a strong local automobile and automotive industry which can help diversify exports and the burgeoning economy mature.
Industries Minister Nurul Majid Mahmud Humayun in his speech as the Chief Guest said with the increasing purchasing power of people local demand for vehicles is rising and his government is inviting the foreign and private sector investors to set up vehicle and component plants in economic zones.
Following the Motorcycle Industry Development Policy 2018, the government now is working to finalise the Automobile Industry Development Policy 2020, the draft of which is drawing mixed reaction since that contains a plan to phase out imports of reconditioned vehicles in five years and Bangladesh car market is mostly made of reconditioned Japanese cars due to their perceived reliability and a wide range of models from the top Japanese car brands.
However, even before the policy is finalised, some top local groups including Uttara Motors, Ifad, Runner, GPH, in collaboration with their foreign technological partners, have proposed to invest nearly Tk3,000 crore in total to invest in Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Shilpa Nagar in Chattogram alone as the emerging industrial park offers a suitable package for automobile investors.
Bangladeshi company Fair Technologies is planning to set up a local Hyundai car assembling plant. Besides, The Ministry of Industries is in talks with Japanese Mitsubishi Motors for a joint venture car assembly plant like the state-owned Pragati Industries' six decade-old vehicle assembly plant, while more than a dozen plans for automotive investments appeared in media reports in recent years.
PHP Automobiles is assembling Malaysian Proton branded cars in Chattogram in recent years to offer little more affordability amid the abnormally high tariff existing in the country.
Some local companies are assembling commercial vehicles too.
The market
Taskeen Ahmed, deputy managing director of Ifad group, in his keynote presentation at the programme said, "Prior to Covid-19, Bangladesh automobile market had been growing at an annual average of 15-20% rate while the auto parts market was growing at 12%. Both the growth rates are way above the respective global averages."
"With the noticeable national infrastructure investments for roads and highways, bridges and tunnels, and regional connectivity initiatives Bangladesh is likely to see a high demand for automobiles, like two-wheelers, passenger cars, light and heavy commercial vehicles or three-wheelers, in coming days too," said Taskeen.
According to the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) there are more than 46 lakh registered motorised vehicles in Bangladesh, while a large number such vehicles, especially two and three-wheelers, are running without registration.
Of the total registered vehicles, nearly 80% are two-wheelers, 5% are passenger cars, while buses and trucks together, pickups, auto rickshaws, vans, microbuses made the remainder of the pie.
The potentials and Challenges
With localised manufacturing in recent years, motorcycles' affordability helped the two-wheeler market to reach the sales of half a million units per year. Industry experts say crossing the milestone of selling a million units annually would enable the local industry to invest more for component manufacturing which is the backbone for a strong industry.
Citing a study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Bangladesh Reconditioned Vehicle Importers Association (Barvida) President Abdul Haque said for a feasible car industry the car market needs to grow to one lakh units a year, otherwise the lack of scale would make the investor companies' task difficult.
Currently 12,000-29,000 units of cars are sold each year in the country.
Bangladesh has full potential to grow the car market at that level if the government rationalise taxes and duties to make cars affordable, said the leader of around 900 reconditioned car importers and dealers of the country.
Bangladesh is a rare country where imported cars face abnormally high duties and taxes that begin from 128% and can go higher than 700% depending on the engine capacity.
Export of cars would not be an easy task since the regional market is very competitive, opined Hayakawa Yuho, chief representative of JICA Bangladesh.
He advised the government to proceed in phases, firstly incentivising investments which would enable mere assembling, and then gradual pushes for more local component sourcing in line with the growth of the market.
For a stronger car market, a practical combination of both brand new and reconditioned cars would be better, opined Hayakawa Yuho.
A careful sequencing that can help investors proceed with the economies of scale might change the landscape of Bangladesh's industrialisation, he added.
Component manufacturing has bigger potentials
Automotive components, a vital part of the government's priority sector light engineering, have even greater potentials both to support the desired development of a local car industry and also in exports, said experts.
Taskeen said in his keynote speech the annual local market for auto parts worth Tk1,400 crore now and it is growing at 12% rate. Around 200 auto parts importers are catering to the demand now.
Globally the component market is even bigger than the apparel market, he said while talking to The Business Standard.
Non-resident Bangladeshi engineer Syed Imtiaz Ahmed, a Detroit automotive technology consultant, said Bangladesh has full potential to contribute to the global market for automotive electronic components.
"For example," he said, "An electronic control unit (ECU) hardware costs around $30 which are used in dozens in a modern vehicle. But global companies spend millions for the software installed in the units."
The government should take initiatives to engage thousands of local computer science graduates to work in the field which can be a big boost as it would enable exports to the developed countries.
John D Dunham, chief of the Economic and Indo-Pacific Affairs Unit of the US Embassy in Dhaka, said the backbone of the US auto industry is thousands of component makers and Bangladesh should focus there.
Japanese ambassador to Dhaka Ito Naoki said automobile, light engineering and agro-based sectors can play a vital role in Bangladesh's export diversification. He urged the government to ensure policy supports, tax benefits, and incentives to grow the automobile industry.
What is needed now
Matiur Rahman, chairman and managing director of Uttara Group of Companies, which is going to invest around Tk285 crore in a local assembling plant for Suzuki cars, said "We are far behind in this (Automobile) sector. A long term policy and incentives will foster the promising sector."
Md Touhiduzzaman, the managing director of Pragati Industries, expressed the state-owned firm's readiness to contribute more in coming days.
DCCI President and the programme moderator said despite having potentials, the absence of long-term policy and consistent tax structure, lack of domestic source of raw materials and relevant skilled human resources, as well as inadequate backward linkage limit the automobile manufacturing industry's development.
He also urged for a long-term policy and a minimum 5-10 years sustaining tariff policy to support the assembling and manufacturing of vehicles.
He also called for a separate Automobile Zone and allowing joint ventures for parts manufacturing to create local experts.



 
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Series production of passenger cars and suvs has been reality since Pakistan times (erstwhile Gandhara industries, now called Pragati Industries).

Local assembly of SKD and CKD kits (for both personal and commercial vehicles) are happening with private sector for almost two decades now. PHP has been assembling various Proton cars and SUVs for the last five years from CKD kits.

For meeting local demand, manufacturing from scratch (as opposed to SKD/CKD assembly) does not yet make sense - minimum feasible volume for one vehicle line is usually 100,000 per year and local demand does not warrant it.

What will be happening in the near future will be volume automobile manufacturing for export, several private sector enterprises are already gearing up for this as outlined in the report.

I don't think we need to pay heed to anyone or any group who says export market is too competitive. Bangladesh labor costs are generally one half that of India and one third that of China (probably even less) and assembly/labor costs are a large part of total vehicle costs. Why wouldn't export be competitive from Bangladesh. What was lacking before (and is no longer lacking now) is the technology expertise, funding and investment capabilities of local industrialists to put up vehicle assembly/manufacturing units.

BARVIDA people (re-conditioned car importer group from Japan) are against developing local manufacturing of cars. They have been fighting this by bribing ministers for the last three four decades. They also have a bunch of JICA people in their pockets. Importing re-conditioned vehicles from Japan is huge business in Bangladesh.

Commercial bespoke/custom body making for buses and trucks is of course very much in vogue locally. Some local body makers have started fabricating luxury sleeper coaches and double decker intercity express buses on Volvo and Scania bus chassis, which are in great demand by local operators. I would say Bangladeshi bus-body and coach assemblers are not any less capable than any other country in the subcontinent (and pretty close to Indonesian standards now) on fabricating advanced bus bodies.
 
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Series production of passenger cars and suvs has been reality since Pakistan times (erstwhile Gandhara industries, now called Pragati Industries).

Local assembly of SKD and CKD kits (for both personal and commercial vehicles) are happening with private sector for almost two decades now. PHP has been assembling various Proton cars and SUVs for the last five years from CKD kits.

For meeting local demand, manufacturing from scratch (as opposed to SKD/CKD assembly) does not yet make sense - minimum feasible volume for one vehicle line is usually 100,000 per year and local demand does not warrant it.

What will be happening in the near future will be volume automobile manufacturing for export, several private sector enterprises are already gearing up for this as outlined in the report.

I don't think we need to pay heed to anyone or any group who says export market is too competitive. Bangladesh labor costs are generally one half that of India and one third that of China (probably even less) and assembly/labor costs are a large part of total vehicle costs. Why wouldn't export be competitive from Bangladesh. What was lacking before (and is no longer lacking now) is the technology expertise, funding and investment capabilities of local industrialists to put up vehicle assembly/manufacturing units.

BARVIDA people (re-conditioned car importer group from Japan) are against developing local manufacturing of cars. They have been fighting this by bribing ministers for the last three four decades. They also have a bunch of JICA people in their pockets. Importing re-conditioned vehicles from Japan is huge business in Bangladesh.

Commercial bespoke/custom body making for buses and trucks is of course very much in vogue locally. Some local body makers have started fabricating luxury sleeper coaches and double decker intercity express buses on Volvo and Scania bus chassis, which are in great demand by local operators. I would say Bangladeshi bus-body and coach assemblers are not any less capable than any other country in the subcontinent (and pretty close to Indonesian standards now) on fabricating advanced bus bodies.
Once EV becomes popular in Middle East we are in perfect position for that market since we don’t want to get in combustion engine
 
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Once EV becomes popular in Middle East we are in perfect position for that market since we don’t want to get in combustion engine

That would be a bit of a long shot maybe for gulf countries, because they are essentially sitting on oil. Maybe you're talking about countries which do not have oil - right? Like maybe Egypt and the other countries in the Maghreb?
 
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That would be a bit of a long shot maybe for gulf countries, because they are essentially sitting on oil. Maybe you're talking about countries which do not have oil - right? Like maybe Egypt and the other countries in the Maghreb?
Rn EV is a luxury in Middle East. Falling oil prices making it harder to sustain their economy. They might just have ships, airplanes (until 2035) and electricity generation depend on their supply.
also countries like bd for atleast 2040x2050
 
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Rn EV is a luxury in Middle East. Falling oil prices making it harder to sustain their economy. They might just have ships, airplanes (until 2035) and electricity generation depend on their supply.
also countries like bd for atleast 2040x2050


There is EV here ??
 
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There is EV here ??

Don't know if you asked the question, but I have seen some Toyota Prius and Nissan Leaf running around in Dhaka (maybe reconditioned ones or even new, who knows?). I suspect they will get popular very rapidly because Hybrids (even full electrics) do not spend any energy while sitting in traffic, which is the majority of time spent in Dhaka commutes.

The only thing standing in front of rapid widespread adoption is Bangladesh govt, subsidizing purchase of these vehicles with rebates, which China is doing for small size electrics. Rate of adoption in California is higher than rest of the US.
 
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amid the abnormally high tariff existing in the country.
Abdul Haque said for a feasible car industry the car market needs to grow to one lakh units a year, otherwise the lack of scale would make the investor companies' task difficult.
Currently 12,000-29,000 units of cars are sold each year in the country.
How these two can be reconcile? Govt. imposed import tariff upto 850% for a reconditioned Japanese car. With such an exorbitant price how can the car sale will break that limiting factor? In Bangladesh, private car is out of reach for the Middle class. Only millionaire(crorepati) afford to buy one. Unless govt. shed it's thinking of car as a very luxurious product thus need heavy taxing, things will not improve. Even if they promote car assembly but maintain high tariff for importing assembly parts, this industry will struggle. So the thinking and policy change need first.
 
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How does BD fare with pick up trucks (Hiluxs, Nevara's etc), are they in demand?
 
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How does BD fare with pick up trucks (Hiluxs, Nevara's etc), are they in demand?

Those are mainly used for power and water utility crews and police force transport (in Bangladesh and Pakistan), as I have seen.

Private owners don't buy those things. unlike Thailand, where these are produced and used in quite significant numbers by personal owners, like the USA.

In fact the US-Market Chevrolet Colorado pickup (Holden Colorado in Australia) is made in Thailand in GM Thailand's Rayong Plant, which is a mid-sized pickup and is actually an Isuzu product (as GM owns Isuzu).

The Toyota Hilux (US-Market Tacoma Pickup) and Nissan Navara (US-Market Nissan Frontier Pickup) are roughly equivalent, and competes in the same market category.
 
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How these two can be reconcile? Our import tariff run upto 850% for a reconditioned Japanese car. With such an exorbitant price how can the car sale will break that limiting factor? In Bangladesh, private car is out of reach for the Middle class. Only millionaire(crorepati) afford to buy one. unless govt. shed it's thinking of car as a very luxurious product thus need heavy taxing, things will not improve. even if they promote car assembly but maintain high tariff for importing assembly parts, this industry will struggle. So the thinking and policy change need first.

I would prefer Bangladesh focus on public transportation and making a bus. It is also good to Bangladesh economy in general, it will make less pressure on infrastructure investment and oil import as well. I would say with the emergence of Grab/Uber/Gojek, people would rather use that service if they want to use car for some thing. It is much convenience since we dont need to drive a car, unless if you have your own driver and dont have problem to pay him every month.
 
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