RobbieS
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Quite blunt, this one...
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Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon?
KANTI BAJPAI, TNN, 6 February 2010, 12:00am IST
You don't have to be a foreign policy hawk to be disconcerted by the surging gap between India and China. We in India think that we are the equal of China and that in the decades to come we will surpass it in national power - when actually the opposite is a more likely future. Power is of course not everything in international relations, but to ignore a massive power differential is strategic blindness. At the very least, India must consider its choices as it confronts the widening gap with China.
What is the ratio of national power and living standards between the two countries? China's GDP today is four times that of India. In addition, Chinese per capita GDP is roughly $4,000, India's is $1,000. The average Chinese therefore lives four times better than his Indian counterpart. In fact, this is an underestimation of his relative well-being because educational and health facilities make his life chances better still. If the two countries continue to grow at the rates they have grown in the past decade (India at 6-8 per cent and China at 10-12 per cent), China will have an economy eight times India's in 30 years.
What does this mean for international relations? We could express the difference in various ways, but let us simply cast a comparative eye on the question. For it to hit home, let us note that by 2040 India will be to China as Pakistan is to India. And that may be an optimistic judgment about the gap. In the January/February 2010 issue of the US journal, Foreign Policy, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Fogel predicts that by 2040 China will have a GDP of $123 trillion and 40 per cent of world output (the US will be next with 14 per cent!). At this point, China will be the most powerful entity on earth by far, as it has been for 18 out of the past 20 centuries of world history (chancellor of Oxford University Chris Patten's estimate). Even if this is an exaggeration, the Chinese dragon will be so big that the rest of the world will have to gulp several times before it says no to Beijing.
Critics of this triumphalist view cite any number of things that could go wrong. There is apparently a huge list of potential catastrophes awaiting China: financial bubbles, an ageing population, regional disparities, growing inequality, ethnic and religious disaffection, environmental collapse, resource scarcities, bad governance, hypernationalism, unchecked populism and so on. Prem Shankar Jha, in his provocative new book, Crouching Dragon, Hidden Tiger, makes the case that the economic gap between India and China is not as great as projected (though any visitor to China will tell you otherwise). Unfortunately, as he notes, while both are beset by problems, China has a better appreciation of its challenges.
What are India's choices as it faces a gargantuan China? It could build its military, enter into alliances, settle its disputes with China, or hide. India could compensate for the huge economic imbalance by massively building its military forces, principally its nuclear forces (to say 1,000 weapons). However, this would be hugely expensive and could set the economy further back. India could, alternatively, enter into an alliance with the other big powers - the US, Russia, and Japan. If China grows as projected, even this counterbalance of forces may not be sufficient. Both options would in any case be provocative to China. A third possibility is for India to settle its disputes with China when the power gap is relatively small. This might propitiate China and leave India safe, for a while. Finally, it could try to hide from China's gaze by tiptoeing through the jungle of international politics and trying not to offend the dragon. This would be virtual capitulation to Chinese power, for the first time in India's history. A judicious combination of the four might be the best way to hold off China - easy enough to conceive, not easy to achieve.
There is one other possibility - that China evolves into a magnanimous hegemon, unlike any previous hegemon in history, and deals generously with the world including India.
Here's hoping.
Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon? - Edit Page - Opinion - Home - The Times of India
***************************************
Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon?
KANTI BAJPAI, TNN, 6 February 2010, 12:00am IST
You don't have to be a foreign policy hawk to be disconcerted by the surging gap between India and China. We in India think that we are the equal of China and that in the decades to come we will surpass it in national power - when actually the opposite is a more likely future. Power is of course not everything in international relations, but to ignore a massive power differential is strategic blindness. At the very least, India must consider its choices as it confronts the widening gap with China.
What is the ratio of national power and living standards between the two countries? China's GDP today is four times that of India. In addition, Chinese per capita GDP is roughly $4,000, India's is $1,000. The average Chinese therefore lives four times better than his Indian counterpart. In fact, this is an underestimation of his relative well-being because educational and health facilities make his life chances better still. If the two countries continue to grow at the rates they have grown in the past decade (India at 6-8 per cent and China at 10-12 per cent), China will have an economy eight times India's in 30 years.
What does this mean for international relations? We could express the difference in various ways, but let us simply cast a comparative eye on the question. For it to hit home, let us note that by 2040 India will be to China as Pakistan is to India. And that may be an optimistic judgment about the gap. In the January/February 2010 issue of the US journal, Foreign Policy, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Fogel predicts that by 2040 China will have a GDP of $123 trillion and 40 per cent of world output (the US will be next with 14 per cent!). At this point, China will be the most powerful entity on earth by far, as it has been for 18 out of the past 20 centuries of world history (chancellor of Oxford University Chris Patten's estimate). Even if this is an exaggeration, the Chinese dragon will be so big that the rest of the world will have to gulp several times before it says no to Beijing.
Critics of this triumphalist view cite any number of things that could go wrong. There is apparently a huge list of potential catastrophes awaiting China: financial bubbles, an ageing population, regional disparities, growing inequality, ethnic and religious disaffection, environmental collapse, resource scarcities, bad governance, hypernationalism, unchecked populism and so on. Prem Shankar Jha, in his provocative new book, Crouching Dragon, Hidden Tiger, makes the case that the economic gap between India and China is not as great as projected (though any visitor to China will tell you otherwise). Unfortunately, as he notes, while both are beset by problems, China has a better appreciation of its challenges.
What are India's choices as it faces a gargantuan China? It could build its military, enter into alliances, settle its disputes with China, or hide. India could compensate for the huge economic imbalance by massively building its military forces, principally its nuclear forces (to say 1,000 weapons). However, this would be hugely expensive and could set the economy further back. India could, alternatively, enter into an alliance with the other big powers - the US, Russia, and Japan. If China grows as projected, even this counterbalance of forces may not be sufficient. Both options would in any case be provocative to China. A third possibility is for India to settle its disputes with China when the power gap is relatively small. This might propitiate China and leave India safe, for a while. Finally, it could try to hide from China's gaze by tiptoeing through the jungle of international politics and trying not to offend the dragon. This would be virtual capitulation to Chinese power, for the first time in India's history. A judicious combination of the four might be the best way to hold off China - easy enough to conceive, not easy to achieve.
There is one other possibility - that China evolves into a magnanimous hegemon, unlike any previous hegemon in history, and deals generously with the world including India.
Here's hoping.
Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon? - Edit Page - Opinion - Home - The Times of India
