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Sri Lankas economy grew 9.1% in 2010, IMF report
*Grouped with emerging Asian heavyweights
April 17, 2011, 6:43 pm
The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Sri Lankas economy grew 9.1 percent last year, much higher than official estimates and it expects the post-conflict economy would grow at a slower pace of 6.9 percent this year and 6.5 percent in 2012.
Last week the IMF released its flagship publication the World Economic Outlook 2011 on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC.
Although there are differences in the forecast methodologies and assumptions, the IMFs 9.1 percent real GDP growth rate for Sri Lanka during 2010, the first full year of peace after a thirty-year conflict ended the previous year, is encouraging given that the Central Banks official estimates had been around the 8 percent mark. In fact, the IMFs October 2010 World Economic Outlook had estimated Sri Lankas economic growth to be 7 percent.
This phenomenal high growth however, comes from a low base after the economy grew at a sluggish 3.8 percent in 2009 (the official figure being 3.5 percent)
The economy is expected to slow down, growing at 6.9 percent this year, 6.5 percent the next leading to an estimated growth rate of 6.5 percent in 2016.
The Central Banks estimates are more optimistic; the economy is expected to grow by 8.5 this year and is expected to hover between this range and close to 9 percent in the medium term. However, matching these targets would be impossible at the current rate of investments, economists point out.
The IMF in its World Economic Outlook 2011 has also classified Sri Lanka as an Emerging Asian Economy along with heavyweights China India, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Global banking giant HSBC recently said as reported in these pages, that vibrant growth would help Sri Lanka face global commodity price increases, but unlike the Central Bank and IMF, it believes interest rates would have to be tightened later this year in order to contain accelerating inflation.
source
*Grouped with emerging Asian heavyweights
April 17, 2011, 6:43 pm
The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Sri Lankas economy grew 9.1 percent last year, much higher than official estimates and it expects the post-conflict economy would grow at a slower pace of 6.9 percent this year and 6.5 percent in 2012.
Last week the IMF released its flagship publication the World Economic Outlook 2011 on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC.
Although there are differences in the forecast methodologies and assumptions, the IMFs 9.1 percent real GDP growth rate for Sri Lanka during 2010, the first full year of peace after a thirty-year conflict ended the previous year, is encouraging given that the Central Banks official estimates had been around the 8 percent mark. In fact, the IMFs October 2010 World Economic Outlook had estimated Sri Lankas economic growth to be 7 percent.
This phenomenal high growth however, comes from a low base after the economy grew at a sluggish 3.8 percent in 2009 (the official figure being 3.5 percent)
The economy is expected to slow down, growing at 6.9 percent this year, 6.5 percent the next leading to an estimated growth rate of 6.5 percent in 2016.
The Central Banks estimates are more optimistic; the economy is expected to grow by 8.5 this year and is expected to hover between this range and close to 9 percent in the medium term. However, matching these targets would be impossible at the current rate of investments, economists point out.
The IMF in its World Economic Outlook 2011 has also classified Sri Lanka as an Emerging Asian Economy along with heavyweights China India, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Global banking giant HSBC recently said as reported in these pages, that vibrant growth would help Sri Lanka face global commodity price increases, but unlike the Central Bank and IMF, it believes interest rates would have to be tightened later this year in order to contain accelerating inflation.
source
