South China Sea decision a hollow victory for the Philippines
ANALYSIS
Bill Birtles
Updated about 2 hours ago
Rarely does a victorious party in such a major legal dispute welcome a decision with such caution.
But the short three-sentence statement read out by Philippines Foreign Minister Perfecto Yasay shows how little
the country's international legal win over China will change the situation on the water.
The move by the former Aquino government to attempt to defend the Philippines' maritime territorial rights in the arena of international law was always going to be a bold gamble.
Three years on, the Arbitration Court's award has decimated the basis for most of China's territorial claims, including its historical claims to the "nine-dash line" that engulfs most of the sea.
Even worse for Beijing, the ruling rejects China's assertions that the artificial islands it has constructed give it the legal basis for exclusive economic zones.
That, combined with further adverse findings about China breaching the legal rights of the Philippines and causing "severe harm" to the coral reef environment, should be cause for celebration in Manila.
But this is a David-and-Goliath battle, and whatever moral clout the decision gives to the Philippines, it means little for its fishermen trying to make a living near Chinese-occupied reefs.
After the decision, China declared the ruling "null and void", declared it had carried out more civilian aircraft landings on disputed islands and announced the commissioning of a new guided missile destroyer.
President Xi Jinping declared the ruling would not affect China's interests in the heavily disputed waters, while nationalistic state media outlets declared the tribunal's decision "shameless" and "hopelessly one-sided".
In other words, Beijing is now openly flouting international law and firing up a nationalistic movement at home, ensuring there will be no domestic political softening on its stance.
It appears the Philippines' new government, under President Rodrigo Duterte, is already resigned to that outcome, knowing neither it nor its ally the United States, can do anything substantial to force China to abide by the tribunal's decision.
In the lead-up to the decision, the Philippines made overtures suggesting it was open to joint exploration with China in the areas it claims.
It is obvious which country would hold the power in any negotiations.
"The award of the court vindicates those many nations which have called on China to accept a rules-based order in Asia," ANU's National Security College analyst Rory Medcalf said.
"And it puts expectations on other countries in the region, such as Australia, to stand up for international law."
But with China unwilling to bend, the Philippines may be left wondering if it has won the argument but lost the overall contest for control.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-13/south-china-sea-philippines-hollow-victory/7623460