（十四）
下面首先分析一下明确以色列核身份对全球局势的影响：
在中东，当前有三个热点问题，巴以和谈，伊拉克重建，伊朗核问题。站在美国的角度看：巴以和谈是后防线，保卫着美元霸权；伊拉克是前线，摆平了有助于稳定美元，并可以为攻打伊朗提供资金支持，伊朗则是未来的战场，是未来要占领的国家。站在中俄欧三方的角度看，绝对不能让美国摆平了伊拉克，否则美国就完全控制了中东的石油，三家只好去喝西北风。
为了不喝西北风，三家开始想办法在伊拉克捣乱，同时摆出伊朗核问题让美国去解决。如果美国摆平了伊拉克，自然不管什么核问题心问题的，抒伊朗一打了事，可是美国被伊拉克的烂摊子拖住了腿，实在抽不出兵力来打伊朗，只好跟中俄欧搞六方会谈。美国愿意谈判，是为了争取时间来解决掉伊拉克的问题，中俄欧愿意陪他谈，则是为了逼他在中东（包括伊拉克）和地球上其他的地方让渡利益。结果谈来谈去谈了四五年，美国花费了大把的时间和美元，也没能搞定伊拉克，最后还不得不把战斗部队撤了出来。中俄欧三方则以伊核问题为前线，步步前推，先推到伊拉克（07年7月美国通过从伊拉克撤军时间表），再推就是巴以和谈了。这是美国最后的防线。
美国为了保住这条防线，选择了对欧盟让步，从07年年底开始，已先后多次让步，但是，他拒绝让中国加入。进入巴以和谈最大的好处是什么？就是可以争夺巴以和谈掩护着的美元霸权，欧盟也是得到了美国的让步之后才开始推动欧元与美元争霸的。前面的分析中，也提到了中国数次要求加入巴以和谈，均被拒绝。这一次，欧盟做了引荐中国加入态度后得到了美国的让步，之后便不再提引荐的事了，中国再次在巴以和谈问题上被欧盟利用了一把。
不过，此一时，彼一时。这时的中国已经不是以前的中国了。中国在中东已经拥有了主导权，自然可以用其他的方式达到自己的目的，而不是离了欧盟就活不了。北京采取了什么手段呢？要求明确以色列的核身份。
如果用一个比方来形容的话，北京的这个动作就相当于抡起一把锤子，对着方方面面示意，我准备砸掉巴以和谈这张谈判桌——你们不是不给我安排把椅子吗？我还不要了呢，我把这张桌子砸了，大家都别坐了。北京这个举动，也是自攻入中东以来做过的仅次于让朝鲜引爆原子弹的凶悍动作。这个动作在华尔街看来，简直就是刨他们的祖坟。
为什么说这个动作是在砸谈判桌呢？这得从以色列的身家性命说起。大家都知道，以色列在中东地区，只有敌人没有朋友。他能在中东活这么多年，离不开美国先进武器的支持，更离不开他有原子弹。众多的阿拉伯国家打不过他，是因为以前的大国都不希望中东真正实现和平。
自从以色列建国以来，美国就是最强大的国家，在中东一直占据主导地位，哪个国家想要争夺中东主导权，都必须通过巴以和谈这张谈判桌来跟美国较量，无论是苏联还是欧盟，都是这样。因为过去的苏联和欧明因实力上都没有超过美国，所以自然不能做出实质性伤害以色列的行动来。很自然的，众多的阿拉伯国家也就得不到可以战胜以色列的好武器，历次的中东战争中阿拉伯国家就也不能取胜了。同时，以色列拥有原子弹，是对阿拉伯国家极大的心理震慑，各国都怕把他逼急了会扔一颗出来，那小日子就别过了。
现在，中东局势发生了重要变化，美国的影响力严重下降，中国在中东取得了主导权。美国保护不了以色列已是事实，已发生的救援船事件和接下来发生的一棵树战争都足以证明这一点。这时，如果中国愿意，可以实质性的损害以色列。如果以色列再没有了最后的杀手锏原子弹，他也许真的就象内贾德说的那样，有一天会被人从地图上抹去。所以，核武器是以色列最后的救命稻草。现在，北京要求以色列以无核国身份加入《不扩散核武器条约》，就是在绝以色列的后路。一旦以色列没了核武器，中国（或者俄罗斯欧盟）再去卖力的武装一下阿拉伯人，以色列还敢在巴以和谈中唱黑脸吗？巴以和谈谈了这么多年不就是靠的以色列这个黑脸吗？没了黑脸中东不就和平了吗？和平了的中东谁还会买美国人的帐？谁还会用美元结算石油？所以说，北京的这个动作着实要命。
写到这里，还必须说明一点，北京的这个动作其实是虚招，是在吓唬美国的。中国也不希望美元（国）倒的太快。如果美元今年就倒掉了，那获利最大的国家是跟美国没有多少经济联系的俄罗斯，中国经济则会受伤。北京摆出这个虚招之后，接着亮出了实招，就是6月19日宣布的二次汇改。在分析北京为什么要先虚后实的出招之前，先看一下这次汇改的真正用意是什么。这次汇改有四个特点：
第一，把经济发展模式由出口导向型转内需拉动型，平衡国际收支，彻底改变卖血汗换白条的状况。这次汇改，完全是北京主动选择的，绝对不是也不可能为了满足美国人提出的用人民币升值改善中美贸易失衡现状的要求的，更不会去进行一步到位的（对美元）大幅升值，在这一点上，过去保尔森说了不算，现在盖特纳说了更不算。
第二，这次调整和05年的汇率不同，上次调整的基本原则是锁定美元、逐步提高汇率，这一次则是放弃盯住美元，准备全面脱钩。当时锁定美元，是非常不得已的，因为中国经济畸形太严重了，经常项目对美贸易顺差奇高，为了保证中国经济的正常运行，必须锁定美元。然后逐渐提高汇率，分阶段淘态血汗工厂，提高出口企业的技术水平，优化产业结构。
经过5年的努力，中国的主要贸易伙伴已经明显的多元化。前十大贸易伙伴占中国外贸总额的比重逐年下降，非洲、拉美占中国外贸总额的比重呈上升趋势。我手里有几个数据，可以简单参照一下：
从05年到08年，中国前十大贸易伙伴占当年进出口总值的比例分别是：81.5%、79.7%、78.6%、75.9%，估计到今年年底，这个数字可能降到72%左右（哪位有比较全面的宏观经济数据，可以给我一点，分析要用到）。
今年1-5月中国前五位贸易伙伴分别是欧盟、美国、东盟、日本和我国香港地区，他们的占比分别为16.3%、12.9%、10.1%、9.4%和7.5%。从这组数字可以看出，中国经济对美国的依赖性大为减小，美欧日加起来已不足40%，大头落在了广大的第三世界国家，这是一个重大的变化（对日贸易会在后面单独分析）。
这时，中国基本具备了甩开美国的能力。我们都知道，中美贸易的实质，其实就是美国打白条买中国的产品，中国再拿着白条买美国国债，收回了白条的美国人再用白条买中国产品的这么一个循环。以前，这个循环不敢打破，因为中国经济会很受伤；现在，这个循环可以打破了，是因为中国经济调整的差不多了。所以，北京决定放弃盯住美元单一货币（现在说是转向一篮子货币，其实这个篮子也是用来过渡的）。我们都知道，在中国商品换美国白条的过程中，与中国离不开美国相比，美国更离不开中国，毕竟没有白条可以生活，没有产品无法生存，所以，从一开始，中国处在相对主动的位置；现在，中国则彻底掌握了主导权。如果美国人还敢耍横，我们有能力让他去喝西北风！
第三，此次汇改将实行双向浮动。换句话说就是人民币可以升值，同样可以贬值。拿美元来，如果人民币升值一倍，那中国经济可能受不了；但是如果人民币贬值一倍，则可能会要美国的老命。为什么说贬值一倍会要美国的老命呢？
大家都知道广场协议，日元兑美元升值一倍，日本经济失去了十年。日元升值一倍，换个角度看，就是美元贬值一倍，当然不光是美元贬，大多数货币都跟着美元在贬。现在，中国经济已经基本成功的绑定了东盟，对广大的第三世界国家的影响性也越来越强。如果这些国家对中国经济的依赖度超过了对美国的依赖度，那么，当人民币猛然贬值一倍的时候，这些国家就必须选择重新站队：要么跟着人民币一块贬，要么跟着美元原地踏步走。每个国家首先要考虑自己的利益，当必须面对损失的时候，他会选择小的损失。在这时，这些国家必须跟着人民币贬值，否则损失太大。一旦出现了这样的情况，美国必须面对进口商品升值一倍的现状。
我们都知道，通过操纵石油价格暴涨，美国多次成功的掠夺各国财富。其实他的手段很简单，打个比方就可以说明白：假如某个小国每年需要进口50亿美元的石油，这个小国每年有50亿美元的贸易顺差。现在石油价格拉高了一倍，这个小国的顺差就没有了；如果油价拉高两倍，这个小国将逆差50亿美元。有人可能会说，他不会提高出口品的价格还弥补吗？不能，因为这类小国的产品往往是低端产品，竞争激烈，盲目提价无异于自杀。这也是不掌握高科技的悲哀。
同样的办法也可以用在美国身上：在美国的出口能力没有提高多少的情况下，出口产品贵了一倍，会沉重打击本已衰弱的出口制造业，美国也会因此产生更严重的贸易逆差，经济形势会进一步恶化，市场也将对美元形成强烈的贬值预期，从而引发美国国内资金的大量出逃，结果就是美国经济大失血。为了减少资金的出逃，美国只有提高利率来维持局面。可问题是美国经济还有两个更大的麻烦，一是美国开动印钞机已经把利率压到了零，二是美国经济就已经在债务堆里打不出滚来，这时提高利率就是经济自杀。可是不选择自杀美国经济也会在失血中崩溃，这是一个无解的问题。同样的招数也适用于欧盟。这里还需要指出的是，对美元暴贬是进行货币战争的手段，是杀招，如果美国能接受中国的要求，人民币不会对美元直接贬值，而是继续有节奏的升值，用有节奏的升值来进一步优化产业结构。人民币从05到08四年大幅升值了21%之后，近两年来一直稳住不怎么动，一个波次的调整时间也够了，再进行一轮的升值应该也是可以接受的（具体情况要分析数据，我不掌握，仅是猜测）。
第四，站在中国经济转型的角度看，本次汇改不是孤立的行动，它是一套组合拳中的一招。配套的还有发展战略性新兴产业、调整国民收入分配格局（扩大内需），完善社会保障体系等。关于这几点，我会放在文章的最后系统分析，在此先作一个结论，这套组合拳打好之后，中国经济将成为世界经济的火车头，中国将成为这个世界真正的主宰者。
现在，回头过来看，北京为什么要先虚后实的打出两招呢？其实这是北京在对美元霸权形成前后夹击之势。明确以色列核身份，是正面强攻，这线战线上还有欧盟和俄罗斯在强攻，如果从这条战线上猛攻，美元霸权会以极快的速度倒掉，但是好处要三家分；二次汇改的杀招，是侧翼包抄，同样可以击倒美元，但这条战线只有中国自己，美国倒掉的速度会慢很多，而好处会让中国独享。
所以，北京先虚后实的出招，是给华盛顿出题：你愿意快速的倒掉吗？如果不愿意，我这有让你慢慢倒掉的办法，你选择好了。当然，选择慢慢倒掉，也是要让度利益给北京的。这一次，北京想要得到什么呢？美国退出东北亚，把日本和韩国让给中国。要说这一次，也的确是狮子大开口。所以二次汇改的第二天，朝鲜就宣布自己要实施核聚变试验（暗指东亚局势要嬗变）。这时美国的态度是什么呢？
北京要求明确以色列核身份之后，华盛顿马上宣布对朝鲜的制裁延长一年；
北京宣布二次汇改后，华盛顿宣布美国已经开始调查并冻结朝鲜海外资产。
很显然，华盛顿用行动证明，自己反对东北亚一体化，决不退出东北亚。当然，所谓的东北亚一体化，也就是让日本、韩国和朝鲜接受中国的整编（不仅仅是经济层面）。此前，美国一直在东北亚，所以东北亚一体化也就一直停留在口头上。
现在，北京正式伸手，华盛顿拒绝。双方拉开架式，准备决斗。判断得分的标志是航母是否进黄海。
第一轮决斗从6月下旬开始。美国在朝鲜方向用联合军演进行挑衅，伊朗则马上升级核问题呼应，以色列跟着就威胁要武力打击伊朗，伊朗则以派救援船前往加沙反制。这时阿拉伯人跳了出来，组织了比伊朗规模更大的船队也要闯加沙。阿拉伯人选在这时出头，是希望北京能继续挑头明确以色列核身份，只要以色列无核了，阿拉伯人睡觉也就踏实了。当然，就算北京不做，阿拉伯人也是通过这种方式给欧洲人提醒，如果想让他们支持地中海计划的话，就得在以色列核身份问题上有所表示。
这么多伊斯兰国家一起闯加沙，非把坐困愁城的哈马斯给救了不行，那时巴以和谈可就出大麻烦了。别人不说，光俄罗斯的漫天要价就够美国人受的，这时，美国人不得不改变了对伊朗动武的念头，在6月24日把修理伊朗的办法换成了史上最严厉的制裁法案，接着在6月25日奥巴马出来喊话，美国不要求人民币快速升值，进一步表示诚意。，中国同意与美国就美国关心的救援船事件和中国关心的天安舰事件做一个妥协，中国不借机揪住开放加沙不放，美国则不指定朝鲜是天安舰的凶手，东北亚一体化出现了一丝曙光。看到了中国对美国的妥协态度，欧盟也就不好再追着以色列不放了。接着，朝鲜对即将举行的韩美军演摆出了擦枪走火的架式，中国也做好了战争准备，眼看无缝可钻，美韩两国在7月15日宣布原定的航母进黄海军演计划取消。美军航母一进黄海失败。
现在，有必要把中国与美国的敌友力量分布对比一下，毕竟是中美决斗的关键时刻。先说中国：非洲，那是我们的票仓；东南亚，已经被中国经济捆绑了，根本没有选择的余地；南美洲，巴西的支持是坚定的，阿根廷也跟中国进行过货币互换，两个政治反美大国古巴和委内瑞拉也不用多说，南美四个影响力最大的国家基本上是全面倒向中国的，小国好对付；再看中东，四个最大的国家，伊朗是我们的，沙特是全面亲华的，土耳其上面提到过了，埃及也早已开始全面反醒亲美路线了，在中东中国的影响力已超过美国；至于中亚，哈萨克斯坦是接受了中国的核保护的，其他几个跟中国搭界的斯坦们也没什么问题，就连远在东欧的白俄罗斯，都愿意充当中国入欧的桥头堡，至于朝鲜和巴铁，那更是没话可说。另外，在巴尔干中国也有相当的影响力（塞尔维亚总理6月24日访华）。
再看美国，他是完全被孤立了，这个下场也是罪有应得，谁叫他敌人遍天下呢？八十年代的第三世界债务危机、解体苏联休克疗法、广场协议打压日本、墨西哥金融危机、东南亚金融危机，99年打击欧元、南美金融危机………这些事哪一件不是他干的？他是围着地球抢了一遍，除了中东产油国和以色列。现在美国要倒了，谁会帮他？把他扶起来将来再抢自己？现在是墙倒众人推，只要有机会，谁都会踩上一脚。
这时的德国人，也感觉有必须做点什么了。7月15日，默克尔访华，宣布与中国建立全面战略伙伴关系，开始大量对华输出先进技术、帮助进行中国产业升级。德国人这么做，也有不得已的地方，因为他们多少次希望美国能做出实实在在的让步美国都没有让步，而且在今年上半年差点把欧元掐死了。现在，为了逼美国让步，欧盟必须首先交好中国，同时拉住俄罗斯，之后就可以抬高对美国的要价——允许欧盟整合科沃索。以前，整合科索沃的事可以从长讲议，但现在中国逼美国太急，欧盟不得不先顾这头。因为只有整合了科索沃，欧盟才能真正完成内部整合。如果不能赶在美国这个保护神倒掉之前倒掉之前完成内部的政治整合，将来他那点家底极有可能被中俄联手给抢了。
7月20日，看清了德国人态度的英国人也出来表态，亚洲，特别是中国，将是英国新政府未来外交优先考虑的区域；8月16日，瑞士联邦主席洛伊特哈德宣称，中瑞自由贸易协定谈判有望于明年年初启动。傍样的力量的确是无穷的。
对于德国人的投怀送抱，中国也很情领，温总理称默克尔的中国之行“具有历史意义”，并说欧洲市场一直是中国外汇储备的主要投资市场之一。随着中欧关系的猛然抱团，迅速把俄罗斯也牵引了过来。
两个月后，梅德韦杰夫访华，老梅对中国的态度如何呢？别的其实都不用看，只看老梅说的那两句话就可以了：优先发展对华关系，目前俄中关系处于最高水平。现在的中俄欧比起当初在伊核问题上协同抗美的关系来，更近了一步，亚（非）欧大陆经济整合要提速了。在这里需要说明一件事，有点可笑：欧盟力推的地中海计划，其实是法国意大利的最爱，德国人并不怎么感冒，德国人希望优先发展对俄关系。为什么会出现这样的情况呢？看看地图就可以明白，法国意大利在地中海边上，德国则离俄罗斯更近一些。说到底，大家为的还是自己的私利。欧盟，离成为一个国家差的太远了。
第二轮决斗随后展开，这次的战场转到了东南亚。7月20日，东盟外长峰会宣布，10月份的东亚峰会准备邀请俄罗斯和美国加入，10+6又被扩展成了10+8。这是美国人在新加坡之流的小国配合下搞成的，目的是把俄罗斯拉进来制衡中国。结果中国马上提出了“东盟+上合”模式，一下子吓坏了新加坡。7月24日，新加坡马上跟中国签了1500亿元人民币的互换协议，向中国投诚。
为什么“东盟+上合”会吓坏新加坡？摊开地图看看，如果“东盟+上合”真搞起来了，新加坡可就处在这个区域联盟的最边上了，也就变得可有可无了。千万不要小看是在边上还是在中间，这是对任何一个国家的发展都是致命的：当年的英国，以自己为核心，把非洲、美洲、大洋州和欧亚大陆编织在自己周围，才有了日不落帝国；之后的美国，以自己为中心，把南美、东亚、中东、大洋州和欧洲编织在自己周围，才有了今天的霸主地位；同样，今天的中国，以自己为核心，努力把东南亚、非洲、南亚、欧洲、中东、大洋洲和美洲纺织在自己周围，再造一个更大的日不落。看到这里大家也就应该明白为什么新加坡不喜欢10+3了，10+3他还是在边上。中国把“东盟+上合”的方案往桌子上一摆，新加坡立即交枪投降，跟中国搞货币互换，支持人民币全球化。
一计不成，美国又想一计，开始分别拉拢意志不坚定的国家。7月31日，美国承诺送菲律宾价值上百亿美元的精确制导导弹；8月5日，美国又说可能会允许越南铀浓缩。8月2日，美国宣布将在未来数周对朝鲜实施更多制裁。8月6日，美国接着放风航母还要进黄海军演。
华盛顿的玩火再次引起了北京的警觉，北京再次做出准备对敢于在南海配合华盛计划小国开战的姿态。之后，越南发誓永不与美国结盟，菲律宾则说东南亚国家不需要美国帮助来解决南海问题；朝鲜也宣布将对韩美两国举行的大规模联合军演发动“最严厉的惩罚”。到了8月20日，韩美联合司令部无奈的表示，华盛顿号航母不参加军演。美军航母二进黄海失败。
在这期间发生了香港游客菲律宾被挟持事件，就是中美斗法激起的一个浪花，菲律宾全面对华示好的态度引来了国旗被美国人倒挂。其实，美国的这个警告动作没有多少用处，几个大敌都伸着手要好处呢，这时还有闲心收拾菲律宾？就算奥巴马把菲律宾现政府推翻了，谁敢保证新上台的人会一定对美国客气？这种事华盛顿这么多年也遇上不少了吧？在这一轮的决斗中，以新加坡反水为标志，东盟国家全部明确选边站队了。以后，美国在南亚再也翻不起浪花来了。
在中美决斗进入第二轮后，伊朗也开始宣称自己要搞核聚变，再一次用联合行动警告美国，一旦开始闹起来，东亚中东一起乱，看你先顾哪一头。这时，美国也改变了对付伊朗的办法，开始联合一切可能的力量来加强对伊朗的制裁，7月26日，欧盟通过了针对伊朗能源领域的单方面制裁，进入9月份，日本和韩国也先后宣布对伊朗实施单方面制裁。过去几年的制裁，也给伊朗经济带来了不小的麻烦，未了防止出现意外，内贾德签署命令，让革命卫队来掌握经济机构。
按照规矩，欧盟制裁伊朗了，美国应该在巴以和谈上面做让步。这时，又出问题了，以色列拒不让步。以色列不让步的原因主要是欧盟开价太高（全面开放加沙口岸）。其实，欧盟开价这么高也是被中国逼的，因为中国之前要求明确以色列的核身份，直接吊起了阿拉伯人的胃口。如果欧盟的开价太低，根本打动不了阿拉伯人，这也是没有办法的事。但是，如果完全开放了加沙口岸，那哈马斯很快又会活蹦乱跳起来，那时自己的日子又要难过了，为了把哈马斯骗到加沙并封锁起来美国以色列和法塔赫费了多大劲！
恼怒之下的欧盟出手教训以色列，8月3日，以色列遇上了一棵树引起的战争。一棵树战争后，黎巴嫩总统认为自己吃亏了，说要用先进武器装备军队。这时，美国却暂时切断了对黎巴嫩的援助，一看有缝可钻，真主党马上凑合起来说：要不你找伊朗帮忙？那是我大哥，我给你引荐？内贾德一听，马上回应：想要什么武器，拉个清单过来！俄罗斯也出来支持黎巴嫩的主权和领土完整。通过这一棵树，中俄欧之间似乎又要在伊核问题上联合起来。其实，这是欧盟在两面叫牌：如果美国再不做出让步，欧盟可要翻脸了。
两轮决斗之后，金正日点名要美国前总统卡特来朝鲜捞人。这个含义非常明确，你们美国还是从东亚退位吧，带着你们的人（驻日韩美军）走吧。可是，美国人仍然不死心。9月9日美国国防部说，华盛顿号航空母舰还要参加黄海军事演习。这时，美国又在威逼印度与巴基斯坦交火，企图搞乱克什米尔地区，切断巴铁通道。
8月1日，印控克什米尔地区冲突加剧，有8人被打死；2日，印控克什米尔地区再现警民冲突，导致5人丧生；4日，印度安全部队在切蒂斯格尔邦巡逻时遭到反政府武装纳萨尔派武装的伏击，双方发生激战；22日印控克什米尔地区再次发生多起暴力抗议活动。
8月底，解放军进入了巴控克什米尔地区（人数有一万左右）。很显然，这是北京在准备应对可能出现的印巴交火。这也是两个月来，北京第三次摆出准备一战的态度。北京的强硬，摧毁了华盛顿战略摊牌的决心。
进入9月份，印控克什米尔又发生多次警民冲突，三个月来死亡人数达到80之多。9月13日，印度内阁开始讨论削克什米尔驻军特权，防止军民冲突再升级。之后，印巴局势趋于稳定。
9月15日，穆沙拉夫宣布，10月1日（注意这个日子）组建新政党重返政坛，计划在2013年参加大选，他要把“一种新的政治文化”带到巴基斯坦，并为巴基斯坦“找回自信”。
在搞乱克什米尔的同时，为了能拉阿拉伯人一起制裁伊朗，美国摆出彻底搞乱伊拉克的架式。这时的美军作战部队已经全面撤出了，伊拉克新政府却依然没有选出来，不排除伊拉克一分为三。这时的沙特，选择了破财免灾，跟美国人签了一个600亿的超大军火定单。沙特大吐血的原因有三，一是为不支持制裁伊朗付出代价；二是花钱买平安，防止美国把中东大乱引向沙特，三是对付伊朗在伊拉克疯狂扩张。当然，美国的恐吓并没有吓住三方已经结盟的土耳其、伊朗和叙利亚。
完成了这两步之后，美国又开始拿重启巴以和谈诱惑欧盟——之前以色列不是不同意完全开放加沙让欧盟很没面子吗？这次补回来。出乎美国人意料的是，这时的欧盟对美国人开出天价，他的要求就是前面提到的让美国同意欧盟彻底整合科索沃。要知道，这时《里斯本条约》已经通过了，美国想从欧盟内部下手击倒欧盟唯一地方就是科索沃了，再把这张牌扔了那麻烦可就更大了——如果欧盟内部整合提速了，那美元会死的更快！所以奥巴马直接说，兄弟，你比我还黑，我还是答应中国人（让出日本韩国）的条件好了！
当然，鉴于美国依然没有宣布取消航母三进黄海的事情，局势还会出现反复。不过，基本上大局已定。美国已经从朝鲜半岛到南海，再到克什米尔，再到中东闹了一圈子了，一点收获都没有。中国不是有这么一句古话吗？一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭。现在的美国，也已经是“三而竭”了。
应该说，对于即将到来的被中国收编的命运，韩国还是可以面对现实的，7月底，中美第二轮斗法的关键时候，朝鲜一进行战争威胁，李明博就安排自己的财长跑到北京来赞美中韩之间曾经的宗藩关系，狂拍北京的马屁，态度非常之好。进入九月份，韩国人又用扩大开城工业员韩方工作人员规模、运送5000吨大米赈和举行朝韩两国两年来的首次军事对话进一步表明了自己投诚的态度。
相比之下，日本就要难对付的多。要打个比方说，日本就是一个身强体壮的小个子，有一身的蛮力，真要硬拼，中国对付他也比较吃力，除非一枪（原子弹）把他崩了，可这小个子有个最大的麻烦，就是手脚被人锁着。现在他的主子要卖他，对卖主他是非常不满意，可他实在没有抗拒的能力，除非手脚被松开。美国会松开他吗？永远不会，两颗原子弹的旧仇，加上八十年代金融攻击日本的新恨，决定着美国永远不敢还日本自由身。否则，以日本人的报复心理，会让衰弱后的美国万世不得超生。
北京刚刚对华盛顿开了价，菅直人就蹦了起来，马上开始大谈驻日美军在“威慑中国”方面的重要作用。也不知道这个菅直人是眼瞎了还是急傻了，驻日美军一直只对日本人的钱包和日本女人有威慑作用，可从来没有威慑过中国。接着菅直人又要求强化日美同盟，摆出一副不被美国人玩弄就活不了的架式。中国则用舰队穿越冲绳近海的方式轻轻的敲了一下菅直人的脑袋：面对现实好不好？蹦来跳去有用吗？
现在，有必要全面理顺一下近几年的中日关系：自从北京开打朝核牌起，就露出了将来有一天收编日本的意思，日本对此也非常清楚，但是他不愿意接受。所以，当时的首相小泉就跟小布什谈判：“常言说的好，多年的父子成兄弟，你们美国也给我们当了60年多年的爹了，现在也该当回兄弟了吧？况且你身体也远不如以前壮实了，单凭你自己再想打遍天下无敌手是不可能的，我可以帮你，不过得咱俩拜把子，好不好？大哥？”小布什一听，说：“你不是我儿子，你是我的狗，是DOG，D-O-G，你的，明白？”从那时起直到小泉下台的一一年多时间里，小泉一直试图让小布什接受自己的想法，建立日美美日全球同盟，但是美国坚决不同意。
接着，安倍晋三上台，安倍一看形势，既然小泉的精诚所至换不来小布什的金石为开，那我就不装孙子了，装装大爷试试能不能把日美全球同盟搞到手？于是，安倍开始大玩强势外交，结果依然一无所获。接下来就轮到福田康夫了，他进一步把亲华动作做实，来试探美国的态度，结果很快被美国人搞下了台。之后又经历了两个短命首相，亲美的麻生和亲华的鸠山，最后就到了今天这位号称亲华却一上台就反华的菅直人。应该说，在美军控制下的日本政府，很难出现真正的亲华派，他们亲华只是手段，为了撑开日本全球发展空间的手段。
当然，日本不愿意被中国收编，有一个很重要的原因，就是日本经济不比中国差。也正是日本的“经济价值”，让华盛顿恋恋不舍。在07年下半年，次贷危机出现了，美国经济失血严重，为了自救，美国人开始推高日元，日元汇率从07年6月1：124.16经过四个波段的拉升冲到了10年9月的1：82.85，在这四个波段的操作中，肯定有人套利丰厚，同时，疯狂升值日元也沉重打击了日本的出口制造业，有利于美国（也包括欧盟）改善贸易赤字。当然，中国也没闲着，持续采用经济手段打压中日贸易，使中日贸易占中国贸易总额的比例从05年的13%降到了现在9.4%，要知道，日本经济当年之所以从“失去的十年”里面走出来，相当大程度是依靠的对华贸易。现在，中美欧三家联手打压日本经济，再加上中国加强了对东盟的经济整合（这本身就是在排挤日本在东南亚的经济势力），日本经济这几年一直在走下坡路。有这样的恶劣的外部环境，日本的官方和企业界怎么努力都是于是无补的，除非他成为一个独立的国家。
美国这样算计日本经济对中国也有好处：从日本经济上吸血可以减缓美国倒掉的速度，打击日本经济有利用将来的中国收编——有钱人家的狗穷人是喂不起的，可有钱人变穷了之后，狗习惯了低档食品的时候，穷人就喂的起了。所以，站在中国的角度上看，美国不必立即退出东北亚，可以慢慢吃穷日本人，这个现实中国是接受的。
面对着将要出现的巨大变化，菅直人显得非常不适应：一会扬言要由日韩美共治东北亚；一会又履行承诺不去参拜靖国神社（这也是自二战结束以来日本内阁首次集体拒绝参拜靖国神社）；一会又要在新版的《日美共同宣言》中明确提出应对中国威胁；一会发和平宣言要求脱离美国保护伞；一会又跟着美国制裁伊朗；一会重申要强化中日经济合作，一会又正式启动销毁日本遗弃在华化学武器……忽左忽右，忽上忽下，简直就象得了神经病。
到了九月份，忍无可忍的菅直人主动出击了，在钓鱼岛抓了一艘中国渔船，并扣住船长不放，结果被北京狂扁一顿：切断省部级以上联系，切断赴日旅游，停止出口稀土，钓鱼岛执法，军舰巡航春晓……小日本除了被砸疼了干嚎几嗓子外，一点抵抗也没有，的确够可怜的。日本为什么要自取其辱呢？答案很简单，他是在做牌，这个从日本人的一个细微动作里可以清楚的看到：
9月17日，日本外务大臣前原说如果一旦证实中国将勘探白桦油气田的话，日本将会采取断然的措施。
19日，这个前原又说：“尖阁诸岛是日本固有的领土，不存在所谓的领土问题……我们以妨碍公务的嫌疑逮捕了该船船长，并将根据日本的法律对此进行严正处理。”
20日，中国的两艘军舰就在高层授意下，前往春晓油气田巡逻，并且开始向春晓油气田搬运勘探设备。
这时，奇怪的一幕出现了，日本安排人出来强调，中方有意把撞船事件扩大成为领土争议事件，日方不会为“挑衅”所动，不采取对抗措施。
很显然，是日本人顺手一指在先，中国应手在后，如果日本真有本事翻脸，在春晓周围马上就会发生军事磨擦，不过日本人的态度马上软了。这里面就有问题了：任何一个国家，对于战争都是很谨慎的，日本也不例外。可他很轻率的就把战争爆发的红线划了出来，在中国应手后自食其言，很显然是不合常理的。他为什么要这样做呢？
其实，这次行动是菅直人向美国人要态度，看美国人是否同意搞日美全球同盟。如果美国点了点，菅直人是绝对不会放人放船的。正是因为美国人的不理不睬，菅直人只能用被中国狂扁一顿惨相告诉美国人，我们（日本人）是无力改变中国即将主导东亚的事实的，你们（美国人）如果真要抛弃我们的话，我们只有向中国投降了。
放人之后，日本还心存幻想，再次试探美国，搞出了日本是在美国压力下放人的传闻。结果中国再次应手：要求道歉、赔偿，并在钓鱼岛巡航，准备再次帮助日本确认美国的态度。结果呢，美国人有闲情倒挂菲律宾国旗，也有雅致陪韩国人搞反潜联合军演，就是没空就去看看日本那艘“被撞坏”的巡逻艇。
写到这里，该做一下总结了。
04年以来，北京首先以《反分裂国家法》锁死台湾，反手打出朝核牌在朝鲜半岛拖住美国，开始加快对东盟的收编工作。到了06年，中国以经济捆绑伊朗的方式加入了伊核六方会谈，之后推动伊朗核问题拖住美国，顺手展开全球布局。到06年6月，中俄联手第一次激化伊核问题逼迫美国允许中国加入巴以和谈，结果引得美国企图武力解决伊朗和哈马斯，之后被中国用朝鲜导弹发射和黎以冲突化解。
07年夏天，次贷危机爆发，中国顺势推动人民币扩张，争夺全球金融霸权。同时借美国自顾不暇之时，二次激化伊朗核问题进攻美国的巴以和谈防线，美国再次摆出对伊动武的姿态，结果被中俄欧三家联手顶住。之后，美国以巴和和谈问题上对欧盟让步交换欧盟的对伊制裁、以允许欧盟政治整合换取伊拉克配合、以允许科索沃独立换取欧盟的阿富汗增兵，之后，《里斯本条约》出炉，在中俄的力压之下，美国在欧盟没有兑现阿富汗增兵的前提下不得不允许科索沃独立，接着地中海计划启航，欧元与美元的矛盾激化。08年6月，俄罗斯发力争夺石油定价权，美国为自保挑动格鲁吉亚闹事，后被俄罗斯肢解，欧俄新关系上路。
之后，人民币强烈的扩张势头引起了美国的警觉，美国对俄罗斯让步，以放弃东欧反导和在中亚方向对俄罗斯的挤压来换取俄罗斯的阿富汗配合和伊朗制裁。这时，中国在伊朗核问题上面临着以一对三的局面。中国马上调整对策，联弱斗强，化解了美国在伊朗核问题上的进攻。这期间，欧元对美元的步步紧逼和欧盟的拒不增兵阿富汗，引来了美国的杀招。美国先引爆迪拜债务危机警告、后引爆了希腊债务危机下手、制造了欧元危机，欧美反目。后来在最关键的时候中国拉了欧盟一把，欧元危机结束。
中国在全球攻城掠地的同时，也在不断的进行内部经济整合：05年开始的人民币升值是依靠外压进行的第一轮经济结构调整，中国逐步了摆脱对美国经济的依赖，加大对第三世界国家的经济融合，卖血汗、卖资源的局面初步改变；07年次贷危机开始后，中国利用自己的资金优势和外交优势逼迫欧盟和美国大量对华输出先进技术，提升中国经济结构，到今年（10年）年中，中国基本具备了经济上甩开美国的能力。这时中国对美国使用了杀招二次汇改，逼迫美国把东北亚让给自己，由此引发了中美之间的决斗。结果美国的三轮进攻均被中国打退。
中国在全球斗争中的战略优势引来了德国的以身相投，中德全面战略伙伴关系出炉，在德国的牵引下，欧盟有全面倒向中国的态势。这时，一手拉着中国另一手拉着欧盟的俄罗斯没有选择的余地，只能全面向中国靠拢。中国以自己的实力再次成功的联合了欧盟和俄罗斯，亚（非）欧大陆全面整合即将提速。拿到了中国配合的欧盟转身对美国开出了退出科索沃的天价，美国不得不拒绝。之后，美国做势把东北亚让给中国。
这就是过去七年局势的整体概况。现在，可能有朋友会问，下一步局势会走向何方呢？巧的很，9月30日发生了几次大事，对下一步的局势走势会有深刻的影响起。下面看一下：
第一件，巴基斯坦宣布将拦截所有开往本国的北约供应军车。大家都知道了，自从上合完成了对阿富汗的战略包围之后，为了从巴基斯坦方向撕开一个口子，美国人是无所不用其极：自杀式爆炸袭击不断，越境轰炸连连，刺激印巴交火，甚至想接管巴基斯坦核武库，结果被中国用两次核爆（朝鲜）才稳住了局面。
9月30日，俄罗斯宣布，坚决反对美欧联手实施的对伊朗经济制（之前俄已为伊朗的首座核电站注核燃料），全面对中国靠拢。这时，美国已不可能再得到俄罗斯的阿富汗配合了。这样一来，巴基斯坦成为了北约（特别是美国）唯一可靠的食道。现在，轮到巴铁老弟开价了：如果想保证这条粮道的平安，第一不准再搞爆炸，第二不准越境袭击。可以肯定的是，美国没有说不的资本，而且随着局势的发展，巴铁兄弟也可以多要一点买路钱，毕竟巴铁也不富裕，公路维护的成本还是很高的。巴铁兄弟在跟着中国苦撑了四年之后，终于迎来了好日子。局势到了这一步，奥巴马喊了几年的增兵阿富汗也该停下了，如果美国不想陷得更深的话。
第二件，中国放了三个被扣的日本人。这件事国人比较关心，有必要详细说明一下：
9月28日，一开始在钓鱼岛扣人时无比强硬的日本外相前原召见了中国驻日本大使，要求中国确保四个日本人的人身安全，并且希望中国能让日本驻华使馆的人每天见这四个日本人一面，关怀之情日月可鉴。我就想不明白，你这么在意这四个小崽子，怎么不要求中国放人？按前原话说，理由应该是“我们只能信任中国”。既然你相信中国还说什么要求保证人身安全还要一天一见干吗？中国政府又不是黑社会，抓人的事全世界都知道，还会虐待他们不成？你到底信任还是不信任中国呢？
前原为什么这么做？一是演戏给国内看，所以他才没话找话说，二是演戏给美国人看，这一点日本官房长官仙谷由人说的明白，改善中日关系的主动权在中国手上（暗指未来中日关系的主导权在中国）。仙谷和前原的表态，其实是在向美国人要态度：如果你真的要退出东亚，我们也只能接受现实了。结果当天有个美国议员说了一句大实话，钓鱼岛自古以来就是中国的一部分。
既然美国人决定不管这一摊子了，那中国接下来又是怎么对付认罪态度良好的日本人的呢？放三留一，手法跟日本之前的一模一样，只不过放人的背景大不相同：
9月12日半夜，戴秉国把日本驻华大使丹羽宇一郎从床上拖起来狠狠数落一顿，强烈警告日本人不要误判形势，之后日本放了人；中国则是在日本连放人要求都不敢提的条件下放的。如果站在被放的三个日本人的角度看，放不放他们是天壤之别；可站在国家斗争的角度看，扣一个和扣四个没有区别——事情依然没有结束！很显然，北京摆出了进一步揉搓菅直人的姿态。北京想得到什么呢？道歉，赔偿，另外在钓鱼岛规矩点，不要再生事端。对于中国的动作，美国人的态度是什么呢？希拉里说了，祝中国人民国庆节快乐！她的话其实可以改一改，祝中国人民在国庆节玩弄日本人快乐！
美国选择在东亚断腕，必须从其他方向捞点本回来。现在，美国真正可以捞到好处的地方只有两个，欧盟，日本。因为他们三个之间经济上高度竞争，美国的整体实力最强，压倒另外两家自然不在话下。至于第三世界国家，只要对华示好的一律不准美国动，包括印度，这是个阶级立场立场问题。另外，美国对俄罗斯的全方位封堵是必须的，东欧反导要搞，乌克兰格鲁吉亚那边也得往回捞。
对欧盟来说，配合中俄策反以色列，彻底打掉以色列的强硬是他必须得做的，这也是欧盟要求美国对自己让步的资本所在。在中俄的理解下整合科索沃，和亚欧大陆经济整合（地中海计划也可以看作是这其中的一部分），同时加大对南美的渗透，力保欧盟的全球地位不再滑坡。但是，欧元与美元的争锋必将引来美国对欧元的再次下手，关键时刻中国会拉欧盟一把，不会让他倒掉。随着以色列的倒戈，中东会慢慢迎来真正的和平。在实现和平的过程中，中国会扶持起两个代理人集团，一个是土叙伊联盟，一个是沙特领导的海合会。通过这两个集团，中国将控制中东（埃及也会靠过来）。
对俄罗斯来说，努力消磨掉美国在波兰捷克乌克兰格鲁吉亚的影响力，再与中国联手从阿富汗赶走美国大兵，顺势南下联合印度，就可以进军非洲了，再加上与中国欧盟共推亚欧大陆整合、加大对南美的布局，俄罗斯也可以撑开自己的全球发展空间。
在中国修理日本人的同时，俄罗斯也拿北方四岛挤兑上了日本人，两家的配合还是很默契的：一个从琉球方向掐住日本南下的去路，一个从北方四岛方面断了日本北上的路线。美国也可以含笑九泉了，他退出东北亚以后，日本仍旧是瓮中之鳖。
至于中国，整合东北亚的关键是收编日本。考虑到日本庞大的经济规模所带来的不利因素，加上不能让美国过快的倒掉，中国允许美国继续吃穷日本，直到日本彻底投降。那时，琉球问题和东海划界也就一并解决。如果走先难后易的路子，把台湾问题和南海领土争端放在解决琉球问题的后面，时间上会慢一点，可效率上会高很多，手法也文雅的多。东亚的问题全部摆平以后，反手解决藏南问题将不在话下。那时，中国就可以成为这个世界的新主人了。
在这个激动人心的时刻，全球局势也迎来了重大的变革——中国开始一步步主导这个世界了。这一成就的取得，首先要感觉伟大领袖毛主席，是他一手缔造了我们的共和国，并领导中国人民建立了完整的工业体系，搞出了两弹一星，重进联合国拿回了否决票，构建了中美苏全球战略大三角，划分了三个世界搞全球统战，他是中华民族永远的巨人。这一成就的取得，还要感激我们英明的胡哥，他在极端艰难的情况下，领导中国人民在短短几年的时间里，取得了令人惊叹的成绩。
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Following the first analysis of Israel's nuclear status clear impact on the global situation:
In the Middle East, currently there are three hot issues, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the reconstruction of Iraq, the Iranian nuclear issue. With the United States point of view: the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks is the defense, to defend the dollar hegemony; Iraq is the front line, the issue was settled to help stabilize the dollar, and can provide financial support to attack Iran, Iran is the battlefield of the future is the future to occupation of the country. Stand the perspective of three in Russia and Europe, the United States must not be allowed to settle in Iraq, or the United States full control of the Middle East oil, the three had to go Hexibeifeng.
In order not to Hexibeifeng, the three began to think of ways to make trouble in Iraq, and put the Iranian nuclear issue to the United States to resolve. If the United States settle in Iraq, nuclear issues no matter what the natural heart of the problem, to express a dozen Iranian trouble, but the mess in Iraq the United States was holding his leg, it can not spare troops to fight Iran, Russia and Europe had to do with the six-party talks . U.S. willing to negotiate, in order to gain time to get rid of the problem in Iraq, in Russia and Europe are willing to talk with him, then forced him to the Middle East (including Iraq) and other places on the planet alienate interests. Talk talk talk about the results of four or five years, the U.S. spent a lot of time and dollars, did not get in Iraq, finally had to withdraw combat troops out. Three places in Russia and Europe as a front-line Iranian nuclear issue, step by step before the push, the first push to Iraq (July 2007 timetable for withdrawal from Iraq by the United States), is the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks has again and again. This is America's last line of defense.
The United States in order to keep this line of defense, chose to make concessions to the EU, starting from the end of 2007, it has already many concessions, but he refused to let China join. To enter the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks the biggest benefits? Israeli-Palestinian peace talks is that we can compete for the cover of the U.S. dollar hegemony, the EU is to get concessions from the United States began after the euro and the dollar hegemony. The preceding analysis, also referred to China on several occasions asked to join peace talks, were rejected. This time, the EU made a referral after China's accession to the attitude by the U.S. concessions after they no longer mention the referral of the matter, and China on the issue again in the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks by the EU use a.
However, this time, was. This time, China has not before China. China already has the initiative in the Middle East, naturally you can use other ways to achieve their own purposes, and not from the EU to survive. Beijing has taken what does it mean? Requires a clear Israel's nuclear status.
For example, if a to describe it, this action is equivalent to Beijing's picked up a hammer, facing all aspects of the hands, I am ready to shatter the peace talks this to the negotiating table - you are not arranged for me to chair is not it? I have not had it, I smashed this table, we all do not sit. Beijing this move, since the scoring is done after the Middle East since North Korea detonated an atomic bomb for aggressive action. The action on Wall Street view, simply dig their graves.
Why this action is to drop the negotiating table in it? This begins with talking about his life in Israel. We all know that Israel in the Middle East, only the enemy has no friends. He can live in the Middle East for so many years without the support of advanced U.S. weapons, atomic bombs can not do without him. Many Arab countries, beat him, is because the big countries do not want to realize peace in the Middle East.
Since the founding of Israel, the U.S. is the most powerful country in the Middle East has been dominant, which country you want to compete for dominance in the Middle East, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks must go through the negotiating table with the United States this contest, both the Soviet Union or the European Union, are so. Because in the past because of the strength of the Soviet Union and Ouming on no more than the U.S., so naturally can not make substantial harm to Israel's actions. Naturally, many Arab countries will not be a good weapon against Israel, previous Middle East war Arab countries can not win. Meanwhile, Israel has atomic bombs, is a great psychological deterrent to the Arab countries, countries are afraid he will throw a desperate out, that easy life on the other before.
Now, the situation in the Middle East has undergone important changes, a serious decline in U.S. influence, China has achieved dominance in the Middle East. U.S. can not protect Israel is a fact, have occurred following the occurrence of events and rescue boats, a tree is enough to prove this war. At this time, if China is willing, the damage can be substantial Israel. If Israel no longer a weapon of last resort an atomic bomb, Ahmadinejad said he might really like it, will one day be wiped off the map. Therefore, the Israeli nuclear weapons is the last straw. Now, Beijing demanded that Israel join the nuclear-free country, "Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty", that is, Israel must posterior. Once Israel had no nuclear weapons, China (or Russia, EU) to go gung-ho about the armed Arabs, Israel would be willing to sing in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks bad cop it? Palestine-Israel and not to talk about for so many years by Israel the bad guy is it? Not a bad guy on the Middle East peace is not it? Peace the Middle East who will buy the American account? Who will be settled in U.S. dollars of oil? So, in Beijing this action really terrible.
I write to you, you have to say that Beijing is unreal that this action is to frighten the United States. China does not want U.S. dollars (the country) down too quickly. If the dollar this year had been drained, and that country is the most profitable economic ties with the United States did not have much of Russia, the Chinese economy will be hurt. Beijing put on the unreal, the then showed the real, on June 19 announced that the second exchange reform. Why in the analysis of Beijing after the first virtual real moves before, look at the real intention of the reform is. The exchange rate reform has four characteristics:
First, the economic development mode to switch from export-oriented domestic demand-led, balance of international payments, completely changed the situation of selling blood and sweat for IOUs. The exchange rate reform is entirely Beijing active choice, and definitely not impossible to meet American's with appreciation of the renminbi to improve the status quo of Sino-US trade imbalance requires, and not to carry out one step (to the dollar) a substantial appreciation of the , at this point, Paulson said the past is not, now is not more Geithner said.
Secondly, the exchange rate adjustment and 2005 is different from the last adjustment of the basic principle is locked dollars, gradually increase the exchange rate, this time is to abandon the dollar peg, ready for full decoupling. U.S. dollar was locked, it is a last resort, because China's economy is too serious malformation, the U.S. current account trade surplus with the extraordinarily high in order to ensure the normal operation of the Chinese economy must be locked dollars. And then gradually increase the exchange rate, phased Amoy state sweatshops, export enterprises to improve the technological level, optimizing the industrial structure.
After five years of efforts, China's major trading partners have significantly diversified. Top ten trading partners, accounting for the proportion of China's total foreign trade declining, Africa, Latin America accounted for the proportion of China's total foreign trade rise. My hands a few data, you can simply refer to it:
From 2005 to 2008, China's top ten trading partners, accounting for the proportion of total imports and exports were: 81.5%, 79.7%, 78.6%, 75.9%, estimated end of the year, this figure may be reduced to 72% ( Which has a more comprehensive macro-economic data, can give me a little, use to analyze).
January to May this year, China's top five trading partners are EU, U.S., ASEAN, Japan, and China's Hong Kong, their proportion was 16.3%, 12.9%, 10.1%, 9.4% and 7.5%. From this set of figures we can see that the Chinese economy greatly reduced dependence on the United States, United States and Europe together have less than 40%, the bulk falls on the majority of Third World countries, this is a major change (to Japan Trade in the back of a separate analysis).
At this time, China has basically have the ability to throw off the United States. We all know that China-US trade in real terms, in fact, the U.S. IOUs to buy Chinese products, China is to buy U.S. treasury bonds holding the IOUs to recover the IOUs of the American IOUs to buy Chinese products, then such a cycle. Previously, not to break this cycle, because the Chinese economy will be hurt; now, this cycle can be broken, because China's economic adjustment almost the same. Therefore, Beijing decided to give up a single currency pegged to the dollar (now that is a shift to a basket of currencies, in fact, this basket is also used to transition). We all know that Chinese goods for U.S. IOUs in the process, can not do without the United States compared with China, the U.S. needs China, after all, IOUs can not live without the product can not survive, so from the beginning, in China relatively active position; now, China has completely mastered the initiative. If Americans Ganshua cross, we have the ability to let him go Hexibeifeng!
Third, the way a floating exchange rate reform will be implemented. In other words, the yuan can appreciate, can also be depreciated. Take dollars, doubled if RMB appreciation, it could not stand the Chinese economy; but if devaluation doubled, the United States may want to try any. Why double the depreciation of the U.S. will have to try any it?
We all know that the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated against the dollar to double Japan's economy lost a decade. Appreciation of the yen doubled, from another perspective, that is, double the depreciation of the dollar, of course, not just the U.S. dollar devaluation, most currencies followed the dollar devaluation. Now, the Chinese economy has been basically successful binding of the ASEAN, the majority of the impact of Third World countries is also growing. If the country's dependence on the Chinese economy than the dependence on the United States, then, when the devaluation of the yuan suddenly doubled, these countries must choose to re-stand: either follow a devaluation of the yuan, or go along with U.S. marking. Every country must first consider their own interests, when you must face the loss, he would choose a small loss. At this point, these countries must follow the devaluation of the renminbi, or lose too much. Once such a situation, the United States must face the double status of imported goods rise.
We all know that, through the manipulation of oil prices soaring, the United States a number of successful plundering national wealth. In fact, he means very simple analogy can be said to understand: If a small country needs to import $ 5 billion annually in oil, this small country's annual 50 billion trade surplus. Now raised the price of oil doubled, the small country's trade surplus, there is no; if oil prices pushed up twice, this small country will be $ 5 billion deficit. Some people might say, he will not raise the price of exports also make up for it? Can not, because such a small country the product is often low-end products, competition, price increases suicidal blind. This is not to master high-tech tragedy.
The same approach can also be used in the United States who: export capacity in the United States did not increase the number of cases, twice as expensive exports will hit hard the already weak export manufacturing, the United States will therefore have more serious trade deficit the economic situation will further deteriorate, the market will also form a strong depreciation of the dollar is expected to lead to a lot of money to flee the United States, the result is bleeding the U.S. economy. In order to reduce capital fled the United States only raise interest rates to maintain the situation. The problem is that the U.S. economy, there are two more trouble, first U.S. printing money has put interest rates down to zero, the second is the U.S. economy has played no roll in the pile of debt to, then raising interest rates is the economic suicide. But do not choose to commit suicide in the U.S. economy will collapse in a loss of blood, this is a problem without solution. The same tactic applies to the European Union. There should also be noted that violence against the U.S. dollar is the currency devaluation means of war, is Sha Zhao, if the United States to accept the request of China, the RMB would not depreciate against the U.S. directly, but continued appreciation of rhythm, with rhythmic appreciation to further optimize the industrial structure. From 05-08 yuan appreciated sharply by 21% four years after the last two years has been to stabilize the less dynamic, a wave of adjustment time is enough, another round of appreciation should also be acceptable (to analyze the specific situation data, I do not know, just guessing).
Fourth, the standing of China's economic transformation perspective, this exchange rate reform is not an isolated action, it is a combination of boxing in a move. Is accompanied by the development of strategic and emerging industries, adjust the income distribution pattern (expansion of domestic demand), improving the social security system. On these points, I will put the article's analysis of the final system, in this first make a conclusion, this combination of a good punch, the Chinese economy will become the locomotive of world economy, China will become the real masters of this world.
Now, look back over Beijing, after the virtual reality of why the first two strokes played it? In fact, this is Beijing in the form of U.S. hegemony around the pincer attack. Clear Israel's nuclear status is a positive storm, which on the front line in the EU and Russia still attacking, if from this onslaught on all fronts, the U.S. dollar hegemony will be drained very quickly, but the benefits to three points; second exchange reform Sha Zhao, is outflanking wing, the same can be down dollars, but their fronts only China, the United States will be drained much slower rate, and the benefits will give the Chinese monopoly.
Therefore, the Beijing after the first virtual real step by step, is to give Washington a question: Are you willing to quickly drained it? If not, I have let you slowly drained this way, you choose better. Of course, the selection slowly drained, but also to make the degree of interest in Beijing. This time, Beijing wants to get it? U.S. withdrawal from Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea to give to China. To say this time, there is indeed a big opening. Therefore, the reform on the second day after North Korea announced its nuclear fusion experiments to be implemented (alluding to the evolution of the situation in East Asia). At this time the U.S. attitude is it?
Beijing requires a clear Israel's nuclear capacity, Washington announced sanctions against the DPRK immediately extended for one year;
Beijing announced the change after the second exchange, Washington announced that the U.S. has begun to investigate and freeze North Korean assets abroad.
Obviously, the Washington to demonstrate that, his opposition to integration in Northeast Asia, not out of Northeast Asia. Of course, the so-called integration in Northeast Asia, which is to Japan, South Korea and North Korea to accept the reorganization of China (not just the economic level). Earlier, the U.S. has been in Northeast Asia, so the integration in Northeast Asia also has been lip service.
Now, Beijing formally hand, Washington refused. The two sides opened the shelf, ready to duel. Determine whether the score is marked by the aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea.
The first round of the duel from late June. The direction of the United States in the Korean joint military exercises with the provocative Iranian nuclear issue is to upgrade immediately echoed the Israeli force followed threatened to crack down on Iran, places to send rescue boats to the Gaza counter. Then the Arabs jumped out, organized a fleet larger than Iran must break Gaza. Arabs chose this time to succeed, is the hope that Beijing will continue to pick the first clear Israel's nuclear status, as long as Israel's nuclear-free, the Arabs will sleep at ease. Of course, even if Beijing not to the Arabs is in this way to remind Europeans that if they want to support the Mediterranean project, then have the issue of Israel's nuclear status has said.
So many colleagues, went to Gaza, the Islamic countries, non-Hamas to sit back and grudge not to save, when the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks may make a big trouble. Others do not say, enough to light Russia's exorbitant demands by the Americans, then, Americans had to change the idea of ​​military action against Iran in June 24 to repair Iran's way into the history of the most severe sanctions bill Then in June 25 Obama out propaganda, the United States does not require fast appreciation, further gesture of goodwill. China agreed with the United States and the United States concerned about China's rescue ship incident of concern Cheonan incident as a compromise, grabbed the opportunity to open China does not hold in Gaza, the U.S. designated the DPRK is not the day the ship's murderer, appear integration in Northeast Asia a ray of hope. See China's intransigence, the United States, the European Union will hold up well and then chasing Israel. Then, the ROK-DPRK on the upcoming play put the brink of the rack, the Chinese also do a good job preparing for war, Seamless seeing can be drilled, U.S. and South Korean on July 15 announced the scheduled carrier into the Multimodal speech plan to abolish. U.S. aircraft carrier entered the Yellow Sea to fail.
Now, it is necessary to force China and the U.S. friends and foes compare the distribution, after all, a critical moment in Sino-US duel. Let me talk about China: Africa, it is our ticket bunker; Southeast Asia, China's economy has been tied up, there is no choice; South America, Brazil's support is firm, Argentina had a currency swap with China, the two anti-American political power also goes without saying that Cuba and Venezuela, South America, four of the most influential countries are basically fully backward China, the small country a good deal; look at the Middle East, the four largest countries, Iran is our, Saudi Arabia comprehensive pro-China, Turkey, mentioned above, and Egypt has already begun to wake up against a pro-US line, China's influence in the Middle East has surpassed the United States; As for Central Asia, Kazakhstan is to accept China's nuclear protection, and other few take the industry with the Chinese who have no problem with Stan, and even as far away as Eastern Europe, Belarus, China are willing to act as a bridgehead into Europe, as North Korea and Pakistan iron, it is nothing to say. In addition, China is also in the Balkans have considerable influence (June 24, Serbian Prime Minister's visit to China).
Look at the United States, he is completely isolated, and the fate they deserve, who told him the enemy all over the world do? Eighties of the Third World debt crisis, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, shock therapy, to suppress the Plaza Accord in Japan, the Mexican financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis in 99 years against the euro, the financial crisis in South America ... ... ... Which one of these things is not his doing? He was robbed again around the Earth, in addition to Middle Eastern oil-producing countries and Israel. Now the United States to fall, and who would help him? To help him up and grab their own future? It is pushing everyone down the wall, given the chance, who will step on one foot.
At this time the German people, there must be something about the feeling. July 15, Merkel's visit, China announced the establishment of comprehensive strategic partnership, the output of advanced technology to China in large quantities to help with China's industrial upgrading. Germans do, but also a place of last resort, because how many times they want the U.S. to make real concessions to the United States did not budge, and the euro in the first half almost strangled. Now, in order to force U.S. concessions, the EU must first be friendly with China, and Russia pulled, then you can raise the asking price for the United States - to allow the EU integration Ke Wosuo. Previously, integration of Kosovo, things can speak from long meetings, but now China rush to force the United States, the EU had to be the first care of this. Because only the integration of Kosovo, the European Union in order to truly complete the internal integration. If you can not catch this protection in the United States before God drained drained before the completion of the internal political integration, will point his family property will most likely be China and Russia join forces to rob.
July 20, to see the attitude of the Germans came out of the British position in Asia, especially China, will be the British government in the future diplomatic priority areas; August 16, claiming the Swiss Confederation 席洛伊特哈德Sino-Swiss free trade agreement negotiations expected to start early next year. Near the kind of power is indeed endless.
For the German gestures, China is also feeling collar, Premier Wen said Merkel's trip to China "historic" and said the European market has been China's foreign exchange reserves of the major investment markets. Hold together with the China-EU relations suddenly, quickly pulling over to Russia.
Two months later, Medvedev's visit to China, China's attitude Laomei it? Others do not actually see, look Laomei say that two words on it: give priority to developing relations with China, the current Russia-China relations at the highest level. Than in Russia and Europe now had to work together on the Iranian nuclear issue to the anti-US relations, a step closer, Asia (non-) European mainland to speed up economic integration. One thing to note here, a little ridiculous: pushing the Mediterranean EU plan, Italy's favorite is France, the German people do not how cold the Germans want to give priority to developing relations with Russia. Why is this the case? Look at the map you can see, France and Italy in the Mediterranean side, away from Russia, Germany more recent. After all, all for or their own interests. EU, from a country far worse.
The second round of the ensuing duel, the battle shifted to Southeast Asia. July 20, ASEAN foreign ministers summit announced in October plans to invite the East Asia Summit and the United States to join Russia, has been expanded into 10 +6 10 +8. This is American and his ilk in Singapore under the mess of a small country with the aim to pull in Russia to counterbalance China. China put forward the results immediately, "ASEAN + SCO" mode, suddenly terrified Singapore. July 24, Singapore, immediately signed with China 150 billion yuan of the swap agreement, surrender to China.
Why is the "ASEAN + SCO" Singapore will be scared? Spread out the map to see if the "ASEAN + SCO" really out of it, Singapore may at this most edge of the regional alliance, becomes unnecessary. Do not look down at the edge or in the middle, this is the development of any country is fatal: when the British, with their core, to Africa, the Americas, Oceania and Eurasia woven around themselves, not only the Japanese Empire; after the United States, to themselves as the center, to South America, East Asia, Middle East, Oceania and Europe, weaving around themselves, leading to today's dominance; Similarly, today's China, with himself as core, and strive to Southeast Asia, Africa, South Asia, Europe, Middle East, Oceania and the Americas around in their own textiles, recycling a larger sun does not. We also see here should understand why Singapore does not like the 10 +3 10 +3 he was on the edge. China the "ASEAN + SCO," the program 往桌子上一 put, Singapore surrendered the gun to pay immediately, engage in currency swap with China, to support the RMB globalization.
A meter fails, the United States want an account, start each draw unsteady state. July 31, the Philippines, the United States promised to send billions of dollars worth of precision-guided missiles; August 5, said the United States in Vietnam may allow uranium enrichment. August 2, the U.S. announced in the next few weeks more sanctions against North Korea. August 6, the U.S. aircraft carrier should then leaked into the Multimodal speech.
Washington's playing with fire once again aroused the vigilance of Beijing, Beijing once again ready to dare to make the South China Sea with Washington's war plans small gesture. After the Vietnam vowed never to form an alliance with the United States, the Philippines said Southeast Asian countries do not need American help to solve the South China Sea; North Korea also announced it will hold large-scale joint military exercises between the two countries to launch "the most severe punishment." To August 20, the Korea-US Combined Forces Command says with frustration, Washington aircraft carrier does not participate in military exercises. Failure of two U.S. aircraft carriers into the Yellow Sea.
During this period occurred in the Philippines, Hong Kong tourists were held hostage incident, sparking a battle of wits is a spray-US, China and the Philippines show a good attitude led to a comprehensive national flag upside down by the Americans. In fact, the United States, this action is not very useful warning, several enemy of all the benefits of Shen Zhaoshou to it, then clean up the Philippines as well Xianxin? Even if Obama is the Philippine government overturned, who would ensure that the new office of the United States will certainly polite? This thing has encountered so many years in Washington, right? In a duel, the defection as a symbol of Singapore, all ASEAN countries to choose sides clearly the team. , The United States in South Asia can no longer afford to turn the waves came.
Duel in the United States after the second round, Iran also began to claim to engage in nuclear fusion, once again warned the United States with the joint operation, once you start up trouble in East Asia with the Middle East mess, look at what you care head first. At this time, the United States also changed the way to deal with Iran, began to unite all possible forces to strengthen sanctions against Iran, July 26, the European Union against Iran's energy sector through unilateral sanctions, entered in September, Japan and South Korea has announced unilateral sanctions against Iran. Over the past few years of sanctions, Iran's economy but also to no small trouble, outstanding prevent accidents, Ahmadinejad signed an order for the Revolutionary Guard to control of economic institutions.
Accordance with the rules, the EU sanctions against Iran, the United States should make concessions in peace talks above. At this time, has gone wrong, Israel refused to make concessions. Israel does not give due mainly to the EU asking price is too high (fully open Gaza crossings). In fact, the EU is such a high asking price forced by the Chinese, because China requires a clear prior to Israel's nuclear status, the direct lifting of the Arab appetite. If the EU's offer is too low, do not get rid of the Arabs, this is no way to do. However, if fully open Gaza crossings, and that Hamas will soon jump up, then his life but also sad, and Hamas in order to fool the American Israel sealed off Gaza and Fatah fee and how much Jin!
Angry punish Israel under the European Union, August 3, Israel met a tree caused by the war. A tree after the war, the Lebanese president that gets himself into trouble, and that use of advanced military weapons and equipment. At this time, the United States has temporarily cut off assistance to Lebanon, one can see a seam drilling, Hezbollah immediately improvise up and said: Why do not you look for Iran to help? That was my big brother, I'll give you referrals? Ahmadinejad one, immediately responded: what weapons you want, pull a list of over! Russia is also out in support of Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. With this tree, it seems like in Russia and Europe but also on the Iranian nuclear issue together. In fact, this is both sides of the EU bid: If the United States do not make concessions, you had better turn against the EU.
After the two duel, Kim naming former U.S. President Jimmy Carter to North Korean fishing people. The implication is clear, you abdicate the United States or from the East it, with your people (U.S. troops stationed in Japan and South Korea) go. However, the Americans still did not give up. September 9, said the United States Department of Defense, Washington aircraft carrier also participated in military exercises in the Yellow Sea. At this time, the United States and India and Pakistan exchanged fire in the coercion attempt to confuse the Kashmir region, cut off Pakistan Railway Road.
August 1, Indian-controlled Kashmir conflict intensified, eight people were killed; 2, Indian-controlled Kashmir clashes between police and reproduction, resulting in five people were killed; 4, Indian security forces patrol in Chhattisgarh when they were armed anti-government armed Naxalites ambushed the two sides clashed; 22 Indian-controlled Kashmir, more than the recurrence of violent protests.
The end of August, the PLA entered the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir (the number one million or so). Obviously, this is Beijing preparing to deal with possible exchange of fire between India and Pakistan. This is two months, Beijing put the third time to prepare a war attitude. Beijing's tough to destroy strategic showdown in Washington's determination.
Into September, the Indian-controlled Kashmir, police took place in several conflicts, the death toll to 80 in three months as much. September 13, the Cabinet began to discuss the Indian troops in Kashmir cut privilege to prevent civilian-military conflict and upgrade. After the India-Pakistan situation stabilized.
September 15, Musharraf announced that on October 1 (note that this day) to form a new political party to return to politics, plans to participate in the 2013 general election, he wanted "a new political culture" to the Pakistan and Pakistan "back confidence."
Kashmir, while in the mess, in order to pull together the Arabs sanctions against Iran, the United States assumed complete mess of Iraq shelf. This time, U.S. combat forces have fully withdrawn, the new Iraqi government has still not elected, do not rule out Iraq into three parts. This time, Saudi Arabia, selected avert disaster, the Americans signed a 600 million large arms orders. Saudi Arabia big vomiting for three reasons, first, to pay the price do not support sanctions against Iran; the second is to spend money to buy peace and prevent chaos lead the U.S. to the Middle East Saudi Arabia, the third is to deal with crazy expansion of Iran in Iraq. Of course, of intimidation and the United States has not scare the tripartite alliance of Turkey, Iran and Syria.
After completion of these two steps, the United States began the temptation to take the EU to restart peace talks - before Israel was not fully open Gaza do not agree with the EU lose face it? The added back. Contrary to American expectations that, when the EU opened a high price for Americans, his request was mentioned earlier, the United States agreed to complete the EU integration of Kosovo. You know, when the "Lisbon Treaty" has passed, the United States wants the European Union from the EU to start down the only place where is Kosovo, then this card may throw more of that trouble - and if the speed within the EU integration , that the dollar will die faster! Obama said so directly, brother, you are black than I am, I promised the Chinese people (give up Japan and Korea) and conditions are good!
Of course, as the United States is still not announced the cancellation of aircraft carriers into the Yellow Sea, three things, the situation will be repeated. But basically a foregone conclusion. The United States has from the Korean Peninsula to the South China Sea, and then to Kashmir, to the Middle East trouble a circle, and that harvest at all. China is not so old saying it? A drum for the gas, and then to decline, and thrice. Now the United States, has also been a "thrice" the.
It should be said, for the upcoming incorporation of the fate of the Chinese, Korean, or you can face the reality of the end of July, a key U.S. battle of wits when the second round, North Korea a threat of war, Lee went to Beijing to arrange their own finance ministers to praise the former suzerain-vassal relations between China and South Korea, Kuangpai Beijing's , attitude is very good. Into September, with the Korean people but also to expand the Kaesong industrial scale of the staff members of South Korea, transport 5000 tons of rice relief and the two Koreas held the first two years of military dialogue and further that his attitude of surrender.
In contrast, many Japanese will tough. To an analogy that Japan is a strong and healthy little man, with a brute force, you really want to recklessly, he is also more difficult to deal with China, unless the shot (atomic bomb) to his collapse, and can this little man There biggest problem is the hands and feet were locked. Now his master to sell him, he is very satisfied with the seller, but he is no ability to resist, unless the hands are released. U.S. will release him? Never, the old hatred of two atomic bombs, coupled with the eighties hate Japan's new finance attacks, the decision of the United States but also Japan will never dare to free themselves. Otherwise, the Japanese revenge, after weak U.S. will not be condemned to hell eternally.
Beijing has just opened a price to Washington, Naoto Kan jumped up and immediately started talking about the U.S. military in "to deter China," the important role. Do not know that Naoto Kan was blind a silly or anxious, the U.S. military has been on the Japanese woman's purse and Japan have a deterrent effect, but never a deterrent to China. Then Naoto Kan also requested to strengthen the Japan-US alliance, the Americans put on a play can not live without the frame. China is using the fleet across the sea of ​​Okinawa way gently tap the head Naoto Kan: face reality, OK? Hopping to work?
Now, what is necessary to fully rationalize the Sino-Japanese relations in recent years: since Beijing broke the North Korean nuclear card, the one day to reveal the future incorporation of the meaning of Japan, Japan should be very clear, but he was unwilling to accept. Therefore, the then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi talks just like George W. Bush: "The saying goes well, years of father and son as brothers, you also give us the United States for 60 years when the father for many years, and now back to the brothers also deserve it? Moreover, your body also far less sturdy before, and simply think of your own hot topic invincible hand is impossible, I can help you, but have we two sworn brothers, okay? brother? "Bush one, said:" You're not my Son, you are my dog, is DOG, DOG, you, understand? "From then until Koizumi stepped down in a more than a year, Koizumi has been trying to get Bush to accept their ideas, the establishment of US-Japan Japan-US Global alliance, but the United States strongly disagreed.
Then, Abe took office, Abe saw the situation, since Koizumi's Faith will not lead to Bush's metal and stone, I will not install grandson, uncle if you can install equipment to Japan-US alliance picking the world? Thus, Abe began playing strong diplomacy, the result is still nothing. Yasuo Fukuda on the next turn, he further pro-Chinese movement to do it, to test the attitude of the United States, the results quickly to engage the Americans under the table. Later experienced two short-lived Prime Minister, the pro-US and pro-China Aso, Hatoyama, who finally called on to today's pro-China but came to power on anti-Kan. It should be said, the U.S. military under the control of the Japanese government, there really is difficult to pro-China camp, their only means of pro-China, Japan softened to the global development of the means.
Of course, Japan was China reluctant to incorporate, there is a very important reason is that the Japanese economy than China is poor. It is also Japan's "economic value" to Washington reluctantly. In the second half of 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. economy is bleeding severely, in order to save themselves, Americans are beginning to push up the yen, the yen exchange rate from June 2007 1:124.16 rushed through the four bands of 10 years pulled September 1:82.85 in the four bands of operation, the arbitrage was certainly rich, while the appreciation of the yen is also a heavy madness hit Japan's export manufacturing industry, will help the United States (also including the EU) to improve the trade deficit. Of course, China is also pitching in, continuing the use of economic means to suppress the Sino-Japanese trade, the Sino-Japanese trade accounted for China's total trade increased from 13% in 2005 down to 9.4% now, you know, then why the Japanese economy from the "lost decade "inside out, to a large extent rely on trade with China. Now, three joint US-European pressure in the Japanese economy, together with China to strengthen economic integration of ASEAN (which itself is in the exclusion of Japan's economic power in Southeast Asia), Japan's economy has been in decline in recent years. There is such a harsh external environment, how the Japanese government and business efforts are so useless, unless he became an independent country.
Calculations such as the U.S. Japan's economy is also good for China: from sucking on the Japanese economy could slow down the speed of the U.S. drained the fight against the Japanese economy has incorporated the use of the future of China - a wealthy family dog ​​is to feed the poor can not afford to be rich become poorer, the dog accustomed to low food, the poor to feed the plays. Therefore, the side of the Chinese point of view, the United States do not have to immediately withdraw from Northeast Asia, can slowly eat the poor Japanese, the reality that China is acceptable.
The face of great changes will occur, Naoto Kan is very suited: for a threatened to rule by the United States by the Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia; for a while and its commitment not to visit Yasukuni Shrine (which is also the Cabinet since the first time since World War II Japan collective refusal to visit the Yasukuni Shrine); for a while but also in the new version of the "Japan-US Joint Declaration" clearly raised the question of the China threat; a peace declaration will be issued from the United States asked the umbrella; one would then follow U.S. sanctions against Iran; one will reiterate to strengthen Sino-Japanese economic cooperation, one would then officially launched the destruction of chemical weapons abandoned by Japan in China ... ... Comparative Study and Integration, and down, just as had neuropathy.
To September, intolerable Naoto Kan initiative, and the Diaoyu Islands caught a Chinese fishing boat, hold and withhold the captain, the result is Beijing Kuangbian meal: cut off contact provincial level or above, cutting off travel to Japan to stop exports rare earth, the Diaoyu Islands law enforcement, small ships cruise Spring ... ... smashed the Japanese in addition to pain Ganhao several voice, but that did not resist, did enough poor. Why did the Japanese disgrace it? The answer is simple, he is doing the card, this from a slight movement in Japanese you can clearly see:
September 17, before the former Japanese Foreign Minister said that if China will soon prove white birch oil and gas exploration, then Japan will take drastic measures.
19, the former former said: "Senkaku Islands are Japan's inherent territory, there is no so-called territorial issues ... ... we suspected of obstructing the arrest of the vessel master, and according to Japanese law have made solemn treatment . "
20, China's two ships on the high behest, to Chunxiao field patrol, and began moving to the Chunxiao exploration equipment.
At this time, a strange scene appeared, the arrangements were out of Japan stressed that China intends to expand it into a territorial dispute collision event, Japan will not "provocative" by the move, do not take counter-measures.
Obviously, the Japanese Shun pointing to earlier, China should hand in the post, if the Japanese really have the ability to turn hostile in the Spring of military conflicts around soon, but the attitude of the Japanese immediately soft. There is there is a problem: any country, are very cautious for the war, Japan is no exception. He was very rash can put the war out of the red line plan, China should hand in after eat their words, is clearly anomalous. Why did he do that?
In fact, this action is Naoto Kan attitude to the Americans want to see the Americans agree to engage in Japan-US global alliance. If the United States nodded, Naoto Kan will never release the crew and ship. It is precisely because Americans ignore, Naoto Kan Kuangbian meal can only be miserable with China told the Americans that we (the Japanese) is the dominant East will not change the fact that China, and you (Americans) if really want to abandon us, we just surrendered to China.
After release, the Japanese also illusions, once again test the United States, come up with a delegation of Japanese people in the United States pressure on the rumors. China once again the results should hand: apology, compensation, and the Diaoyu Islands cruise, ready once again to help Japan to confirm U.S. attitude. The result, Americans have the leisure Philippine flag upside down, but also engage in anti-submarine elegant accompany Korean joint military exercises, is not empty vessels that go to see Japan, "was damaged," the patrol boat.
I write to you, do what the summary.
Since 2004, Beijing first to "Anti-Secession Law" locked Taiwan, backhand play on the Korean peninsula nuclear card is holding the United States, began to accelerate the incorporation of the work of the ASEAN. To 2006, the Chinese economy tied to the way Iran joined the Iranian nuclear talks, to promote the Iranian nuclear issue after holding the United States, easily expand the global layout. To June 2006, China and Russia join forces for the first time the intensification of the Iranian nuclear issue to force the U.S. to allow China to join the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, the results attracted an attempt to force the U.S. to resolve the Iranian and Hamas, followed by China with North Korean missile launches and the Lebanon-Israel conflict resolution.
The summer of 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis, the Chinese yuan to promote the expansion of the flow, competition for global financial supremacy. Same time as the U.S. leg to stand on when the second attack on the Iranian nuclear issue intensified Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the U.S. defense, U.S. military action against Iraq once again assumed the posture, the result was three in Russia and Europe together to withstand. After the United States on the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and exchange of concessions to the EU sanctions against the EU, to allow for the Iraqi political integration with the EU, to allow Kosovo's independence in exchange for EU troops in Afghanistan, after the "Lisbon Treaty" released in Russia the beat under the European Union did not honor the U.S. troops in Afghanistan in the premise to allow the independence of Kosovo, then sail the Mediterranean project, the euro and the dollar's conflicts. June 2008, the Russian force pricing for oil, the United States to protect themselves provoking trouble in Georgia, after Russia's dismemberment, the new EU-Russia relationship on the road.
The yuan strong momentum for expansion has aroused the vigilance of the United States, the U.S. concessions to Russia to give up missile defense in Eastern Europe and Russia in Central Asia, the direction of extrusion in exchange for Russian cooperation on Afghanistan and Iran sanctions. Then, on the Iranian nuclear issue China faces a one-on-3 situation. China immediately adjusted measures, together strong fighting the weak, and resolve a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear issue. During this period, pressing harder and harder against the U.S. dollar the euro and the European Union refused to send more troops to Afghanistan, led the U.S. Shazhao. Dubai, the United States detonated the first debt crisis warning, set off after the debt crisis to start to create a euro crisis, European enemies. Later in the most critical time a Chinese pull the EU, the euro crisis is over.
China gaining ground in the world, while also continue to conduct an internal economic integration: 2005 RMB appreciation is beginning to rely on external pressure for the first round of economic restructuring, China has gradually had to get rid of dependence on the U.S. economy, increase Third World countries, economic integration, selling effort, the initial selling resources to change the situation; 07 after the start of the subprime crisis, China has used its financial strength and diplomatic resources to coerce a large number of EU and U.S. export of advanced technology to China, to enhance China's economic structure, and this year (10 years) years, China has basically have the economic ability of bypassing the United States. At this time the U.S. used the Chinese exchange rate reform Shazhao second, forcing the U.S. to give their Northeast Asia, which led to a duel between the United States. The results of three U.S. attack on China were repulsed.
China in the global struggle led to Germany's strategic advantage to the body congenial, released comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Germany, in Germany traction, the EU has turned to China's overall situation. At this time, one hand holding another hand holding the European Union China, Russia no choice but to move closer to China overall. China once again successful in their own strength, joint EU and Russia, Asia (non-) integration of the European continent full speed soon. With the EU to get the Chinese out of the United States turned out for the price of Kosovo, the United States had refused. , The United States do give China the potential to Northeast Asia.
This is an overview of the situation in the past seven years. Now, there may be a friend will ask, the next situation will go from here? Very clever, September 30, several events took place on the next trend will have a profound impact on the situation since. The following look:
The first, Pakistan announced that it would block all military vehicles bound for the country's NATO supply. We all know, since the completion of a combined strategy in Afghanistan after the siege, in order to tear a hole in the direction from Pakistan, the Americans are doing their utmost: suicide bombing attacks continued, cross-border bombing again and again, to stimulate the exchange of fire between India and Pakistan, even want to take over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, the result with twice the Chinese nuclear explosion (North Korea) was to stabilize the situation.
September 30, Russia announced firmly opposed to the U.S. and Europe together to implement the economic system of Iran (Iran before Russia's first nuclear power plant has fuel injection), a comprehensive approach to China. At this time, the United States can never again be in line with the Russian Afghanistan. As a result, Pakistan became a NATO (especially American) the only reliable esophagus. Now, turn to offer the Palestinian iron brother: if you want to ensure the safe road of this grain, are not allowed to go in the first explosion, the second are not allowed to cross-border attacks. To be sure, the United States did not say the capital, and with the development of the situation, Pakistan can iron brothers to a little money from many, after all, not rich iron bar, highway maintenance costs are high. Palestinian brothers in iron along with China, after struggling for four years, finally ushered in the good old days. Situation to this point, Obama call for a few years of the troops in Afghanistan also stopped if the U.S. did not want to delve too deeply so.
Second, the Chinese put three detained Japanese. People are more concerned about this matter, it is necessary to explain in detail:
September 28, the start button on the Diaoyu Islands were very tough time before the former Japanese Foreign Minister summoned the Chinese ambassador to Japan, four Japanese asked the Chinese to ensure personal safety and hope that the Japanese Embassy in China to make people see every day The four Japanese side, caring love sun and the moon from their mistakes. I wanted to do not understand, you are so concerned about the four Xiaozai Zi, how not to ask the Chinese to release? Press the front of the original words, reason should be "we can only trust the Chinese." Since you believe what the Chinese said requirements to ensure personal safety but also see why day by day? The Chinese government has not triad, arrests of things the whole world knows, will abuse them not? Trust in the end you still do not trust China?
Why do so before the original? First, acting for a domestic perspective, so he Meihuazhaohua that the second is a show to the Americans, this little Japanese Chief Cabinet Sengoku said to understand and improve the Sino-Japanese relations initiative in the hands of China (alluding to the initiative in the future Sino-Japanese relations in China). Paradise Valley, and before the original position, is in fact the attitude to the Americans: If you really want to quit East Asia, we can only accept the reality. Results day, a U.S. congressman said a great truth, the Diaoyu Islands is part of China since ancient times.
As Americans decide whether the stall, and that is how to deal with China then pleaded guilty to a good attitude the Japanese do? Place three to stay one, exactly the same way with Japan before, but let's background very different:
September 12 at midnight, the Japanese Ambassador to China Dai Niwa Koizumi dragged up from the bed and severely reprove meal, strongly warned the Japanese not to misjudge the situation, after the Japanese release of the person; in Japan, even China is required to release all not to mention the conditions of decentralization. If we stand by release of three Japanese point of view, they put the hold is a big difference; can stand the perspective of national struggle, a buckle and button four is no different - something still not over! Clearly, Beijing put on a further gesture of rubbing Naoto Kan. Beijing want it? Apology, compensation, in addition to the Diaoyu Islands behave, not renewable trouble. For China's action, the American attitude is it? Hillary said, Zhu Zhongguo people happy National Day! Her words can actually be altered, Zhu Zhongguo Japanese people happy playing in the National Day!
Select the broken wrist in the United States in East Asia, must take an the back from the other direction. Now, the U.S. can really cash in only two places, the European Union and Japan. Because they are highly competitive economy among the three, the strongest overall strength of the United States, overwhelming the other two can not be overemphasized. As for the third world countries, as long as the United States to China are not allowed to show a good move, including India, this is a class stand stand. In addition, the United States on Russia's all-round sealing is necessary, pursue missile defense in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Georgia also have back there fishing.
For the EU, with Russia instigation of Israel, was completely destroyed Israel's hard-line he had to do, which is the European Union asked the United States where the capital of their own concessions. In the understanding of China and Russia to integrate Kosovo, and continental economic integration in Asia and Europe (Mediterranean plan which can be seen as a part of), while increasing the penetration of South America, to secure the EU's global position is no longer decline. However, the euro and U.S. dollar against the euro contend will lead to the re-start, the key moment of a Chinese will pull the EU, will not let him drained. With the defection of Israel, the Middle East will gradually usher in true peace. In the peace process, China will support the two agents from the group, a Syrian-Iranian alliance is the soil, a Saudi-led GCC. By the two groups, China will control the Middle East (Egypt will come by).
For Russia, the United States in efforts to kill off the influence of Georgia, Poland, Czech and Ukraine, together with China and then away from American soldiers in Afghanistan, the flow south to the joint India, we can expand in Africa, coupled with the EU were pushing the Asia-Europe and China continental integration, increase the layout of South America, Russia can also softened its global development.
Repair of the Japanese in China, Russia could get a run on the four northern islands Japan, the two co-ordination is still very understanding of: a direction from the Ryukyu Islands south of Japan grabbed the path, one from the four northern islands off Japan's north side route. The United States also can Hanxiaojiuquan, he quit after Northeast Asia, Japan is still Wengzhongzhibie.
As for China, Northeast Asia is the key to integration incorporated in Japan. Taking into account the huge economies of scale in Japan the adverse factors, coupled with the United States can not be drained too fast, China allowed the U.S. to continue to eat the poor in Japan until the Japanese surrender completely. At that time, Okinawa and the East China Sea issue will be resolved. If you go before tackling the difficult path, the question of Taiwan and South China Sea territorial disputes on solving the problem behind the Ryukyu, time will slow down, the efficiency can be much higher, more elegant way also. Settle all the problems in East Asia after the backhand to solve the problem will mention southern Tibet. At that time, China could become the new masters of the world.
In this exciting time, the global situation has also ushered in significant change - a step China has begun to dominate the world. The achievements, we must first feel great leader Chairman Mao, he single-handedly created our Republic, and led the Chinese people to establish a complete industrial system, come up with bombs and one satellite, re-enter the United Nations a veto back , constructed in the triangular US-Soviet global strategy, is divided into three global united front to engage the world, he is always the Chinese giant. The achievements, Hu also grateful to our wise brother, he was extremely difficult circumstances, led the Chinese people in just a few years, with impressive results.
