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Sensex@21,800; Re below 61: Thank Russia, NDA and economics

Aarush

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The markets have been on a roll ever since Russia pulled out troops from Crimea, and President Vladimir Putin blamed "unconstitutional overthrow and seizure of power" in the region for the crisis.

"Yes, politically, we get a sense that things are improving ... so, no wars; and we should not be paying a massive premium on the markets for the risk of war," says David Gaud, Senior Portfolio Manager, Asia ex-Japan Equity, Edmond De Rothschild Asset Management.

At 11:27 am, the Sensex was at 21,812.92; up 299.05 points, or 1.39%. The broader 50-stock Nifty was at 6,489.90; up 88.75 points, or 1.39%.

The markets around the world had taken about a marginal 1% hit when reports of Russian troops entering Crimea came out.

"We all saw a situation. A small part of Ukraine got taken over, it had an impact because you were getting two superpowers into a face-off kind of a situation. Now, the Russian president has clearly said that they are not looking to invade that country," says K Harihar, Head-Global Markets, FirstRand Bank.

The stock markets could be now sitting pretty as they had earlier feared escalation of tension between the US and Russia in the aftermath of Ukraine flare-up.

The US may have ordered sanctions, but they are not on Russia but "on people responsible for the military intervention in Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula'. The sanctions include travel bans and freezing of their US assets.

This indicates that the feared flare-up of tension between the two superpowers is now happening, at least for now.

Meanwhile, in a big victory for Russia, Crimea's parliament late on Thursday voted to join Russia.

In another reason for the markets to rejoice, a latest opinion poll indicated that the NDA is likely to get between 212 and 232 seats "if the Lok Sabha elections were held today", with BJP alone winning between 193 and 213.

The poll, based on a survey of six states, puts UPA a distant second with 119-139 seats, of which Congress was projected to gain between 94 and 110.

Market experts have been saying for long that a NDA-led government would bode better for the markets.

Another reason for the market to be happy is the improving macro economic situation.

"FIIs have realised that macro governance in India, both at the central bank level and at the Finance Ministry level, has been of a different standard over the last year compared to most other emerging markets. There is a much greater faith in the way the Indian economy is being run now compared to many other emerging markets," said Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO, Institutional Equities, Ambit Capital.

"Secondly, it is increasingly clear that the Indian economy is bottoming out and the macro imbalances around inflation and CAD are gradually coming under some sort of control. Thirdly, the announcement of election dates and the direction of the opinion polls are giving cheer to the FIIs," he said.

Deutsche Bank recently reiterated its target for BSE's benchmark Sensex at 24,000 for the end of 2014.

Foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 1,272.93 crore while domestic institutional investors were net sellers at Rs 567.1 crore on Thursday, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Sensex@21,800; Re below 61: Thank Russia, NDA and economics - The Economic Times
 
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