Second-quarter GDP plunged by worst-ever 32.9% amid virus-induced shutdown

[zectech]

Here is what anti-Obama sites quote as GDP. US GDP = less than 13 trillion. US = place where they push around money and believe it to be product.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

What is wrong with the US stock market, the DOW should be at 40.000 at this positive news.

The markets are totally disconnected from reality, no just in United States but in the whole world, they are fueled by Central Bank printed money with the objective of keep prices insanely inflated so the people in the top dont lose their money for their own bad decisions. But what most people dont understand is that is NOT the value of assets that have increased but is the value of money that have decreased over time creating this fake wealth effect.

 

[Indos]

Not 32.9 % but 9.5 % contraction for second quarter

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/gdp-q2-coronavirus/

By
Rachel Siegel and
Andrew Van Dam
July 31, 2020 at 1:38 a.m. GMT+7
The U.S. economy shrank 9.5 percent from April through June, the largest quarterly decline since the government began publishing data 70 years ago, and the latest, sobering reflection of the pandemic’s economic devastation.

 

[zectech]

I am not an economist, this is what I tried to piece together with my limited economy knowledge:

9.5 % is YoY. When you make it a quarter, I am pretty sure it is reported as 32.9%, seasonally adjusted quarterly decline annualized (annualized is essentially x 4, with adjustments). If the economy stays this good in the US with 32.9% decline in the next quarter, if every quarter has this drop, then YoY drop should be in the 30s%, (if 1st quarter was reported this good in the 30s% decline).

I am guessing the 9.5% means that US reported GDP is under 20T again.

I simply want the actual figures of what is the GDP now, not seasonally adjusted percentages. To get that you have to find what the GDP was reported in 2nd quarter 2019, then take off 9.5% to find the GDP now.

If GDP is flat 1st quarter, 3rd quarter and 4th quarter, and 2nd quarter is an annualized quarterly decline of 33%, you are looking at a YoY decline of around 7-10%, depending on what the economy grew in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2019.

 

[Indos]

I am not an economist, this is what I tried to piece together with my limited economy knowledge:

9.5 % is YoY. When you make it a quarter, I am pretty sure it is reported as 32.9%, seasonally adjusted quarterly decline. If the economy stays this good in the US with 32.9% decline in the next quarter, if every quarter has this drop, then YoY drop should be in the 30s%, (if 1st quarter was reported this good in the 30s% decline).

I am guessing the 9.5% means that US reported GDP is under 20T again.

I simply want the actual figures of what is the GDP now, not seasonally adjusted percentages. To get that you have to find what the GDP was reported in 2nd quarter 2019, then take off 9.5% to find the GDP now.

If GDP is flat 1st quarter, 3rd quarter and 4th quarter, and 2nd quarter is a quarterly decline of 33%, you are looking at a YoY decline of around 7-10%, depending on what the economy grew in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2019.

There is indeed some number playing here, it should be -32.9 % YoY (compared to similar period in 2019), while the second quarter is -9.5 % contraction from first quarter.

The -9.5 % number I just heard from Aljazeera English, but base on the standard calculation, it should be YoY (compared to the same period in the previous year). So the real number should be -32.9 %

 

[zectech]

2019 3rd quarter reported gain = ~1%
4th quarter reported gain = ~1%
2020 1st quarter reported loss = ~1%
2nd quarter reported loss = ~9%

That 33% loss is for April to June (2nd Quarter) if those figures stayed that way for the year.

I just looked it up on an investment site,
Annualized = One month's return would be multiplied by 12 months while one quarter's return by four quarters.

So my explanation was pretty close. It is for 4 quarters of that bad losses or growth.

 

[Mista]

There is indeed some number playing here, it should be -32.9 % YoY (compared to similar period in 2019), while the second quarter is -9.5 % contraction from first quarter.

The -9.5 % number I just heard from Aljazeera English, but base on the standard calculation, it should be YoY (compared to the same period in the previous year). So the real number should be -32.9 %

View attachment 657163

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

-32.9% refers to annualized growth. It is calculated by compounding -9.5% by 4 quarters. It assumes the US economy will contract by 9.5% every quarter for the next 4 quarters, which is obviously very misleading.

 

[Mista]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ND000334Q

 

[atan651]

Good for the USA. Now they can focus on their domestic issues and delay/stop their global hegemony.