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Scots 'want an independence vote'
An opinion poll commissioned by BBC Scotland has shown a clear majority (58%) of Scots want a referendum on independence next year.
The poll also suggests support for the Union outstrips that for independence from the UK.
However, the poll found the percentage of people saying they support independence varies widely depending on how the question is phrased.
The Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum on the issue in 2010.
The poll of 1,010 people, carried out between 22 and 24 June by ICM, found 58% of respondents were in favour of the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent, with only 37% against.
Range of scenarios
When asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", 38% responded that they believed Scotland should become an independent country, with 54% saying they did not believe it should become independent.
However, the pollsters also asked a separate question asking whether people agreed or disagreed that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" - the preferred wording of the Scottish Government for a future referendum.
In this case, 42% agreed with the statement, with 50% opposed.
The poll also asked which of a range of scenarios were closest to people's views of how Scotland should be governed.
Under this wording, only 28% backed the option of Scotland becoming independent of the rest of the UK, with 47% in favour of remaining in the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland.
A further 22% said Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and spending in Scotland made by the UK Government.
Finally, respondents were asked whether they believed it was likely or unlikely Scotland would become completely independent from the UK within the next 20 years.
"Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel."-Alex Salmond, First Minister
The results showed that 10% thought it was very likely and 28% believed it was quite likely.
However, a larger percentage were not so sure, with 34% responding that it was quite unlikely and 24% believing independence was very unlikely.
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said it was clear that the way questions were asked in polls played a large part in how people responded.
Using the example of the poll suggesting most Scots wanted defence and foreign affairs to be left to Westminster, Mr Salmond said: "If you asked: 'Should we decide whether or not Scottish troops are sent to an illegal war in Iraq', most people would say we should take that decision in Scotland.
"Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel.
"Which direction are people going in? I think it is crystal clear from this poll and from many others that the trend is to see an increasingly powerful parliament because people think and believe, I think rightly, that the parliament has earned the trust of the people of Scotland."
Politics professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the findings suggested that 10 years of devolution - including two years of SNP government - had done little to whet Scots' appetite for independence.
"The straightforward question on whether people want independence or not has been asked many times by ICM over the past 10 years. At 37%, those saying they backed independence has never been lower, while at 54% the proportion saying they are against has never been higher.
"The option of proposing a multi-option referendum rather than a simple vote on independence must be to look increasingly attractive to the SNP government.beginning
"It seems as though a third option of increasing the tax powers of the Scottish parliament, but remaining part of the Union would be by far the most popular option."
BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | Scots 'want an independence vote'
Any thoughts? I will post M.O. on this later..
An opinion poll commissioned by BBC Scotland has shown a clear majority (58%) of Scots want a referendum on independence next year.
The poll also suggests support for the Union outstrips that for independence from the UK.
However, the poll found the percentage of people saying they support independence varies widely depending on how the question is phrased.
The Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum on the issue in 2010.
The poll of 1,010 people, carried out between 22 and 24 June by ICM, found 58% of respondents were in favour of the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent, with only 37% against.
Range of scenarios
When asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", 38% responded that they believed Scotland should become an independent country, with 54% saying they did not believe it should become independent.
However, the pollsters also asked a separate question asking whether people agreed or disagreed that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" - the preferred wording of the Scottish Government for a future referendum.
In this case, 42% agreed with the statement, with 50% opposed.
The poll also asked which of a range of scenarios were closest to people's views of how Scotland should be governed.
Under this wording, only 28% backed the option of Scotland becoming independent of the rest of the UK, with 47% in favour of remaining in the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland.
A further 22% said Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and spending in Scotland made by the UK Government.
Finally, respondents were asked whether they believed it was likely or unlikely Scotland would become completely independent from the UK within the next 20 years.
"Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel."-Alex Salmond, First Minister
The results showed that 10% thought it was very likely and 28% believed it was quite likely.
However, a larger percentage were not so sure, with 34% responding that it was quite unlikely and 24% believing independence was very unlikely.
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said it was clear that the way questions were asked in polls played a large part in how people responded.
Using the example of the poll suggesting most Scots wanted defence and foreign affairs to be left to Westminster, Mr Salmond said: "If you asked: 'Should we decide whether or not Scottish troops are sent to an illegal war in Iraq', most people would say we should take that decision in Scotland.
"Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel.
"Which direction are people going in? I think it is crystal clear from this poll and from many others that the trend is to see an increasingly powerful parliament because people think and believe, I think rightly, that the parliament has earned the trust of the people of Scotland."
Politics professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the findings suggested that 10 years of devolution - including two years of SNP government - had done little to whet Scots' appetite for independence.
"The straightforward question on whether people want independence or not has been asked many times by ICM over the past 10 years. At 37%, those saying they backed independence has never been lower, while at 54% the proportion saying they are against has never been higher.
"The option of proposing a multi-option referendum rather than a simple vote on independence must be to look increasingly attractive to the SNP government.beginning
"It seems as though a third option of increasing the tax powers of the Scottish parliament, but remaining part of the Union would be by far the most popular option."
BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | Scots 'want an independence vote'
Any thoughts? I will post M.O. on this later..
