Scenario: PAF inducts 5th Generation Fighters

[ziaulislam]

Adding a few 5th Gen fighters to the inventory right now?

There will be absolutely no implications or consequences to anything except indians will go ahead and buy something quickly as well, although they would just be fine without em.

Add a couple of squadrons of 5th Gen fighters and let them be there for a few months. That changes many things. And yet again, india will go ahead and buy some quick solution like F-35.

Not necessary
Onlybfifth gen fighter available is chinese one which indians think is inferior to their mig21

 

[MastanKhan]

why?

Simply stated, it is better that way.

Not necessary
Onlybfifth gen fighter available is chinese one which indians think is inferior to their mig21

We should be very happy of their assessment.

 

[Thorough Pro]

A limited number of 5th Gen fighters can only be used for providing cover during long range deep strikes on strategic targets, in the absence of true long range fighter bombers, just one squadron of 5th Gen fighters won't make a big difference.

Good Day! Gentlemen & Ladies of the PDF Forum.

There is a scenario that i am working upon and wanted PDF much vaunted contributors and posters opinion. it is essentially a what if scenario.

Premise of this scenario is PAF inducting 5th Generation Fighters in limited quantity (probably Half a Squadron or a full strength Squadron) in coming months what would be the environment. what will be the consequences in current situation..let say as of today.

What will be the implications across the border. how would it effect the overall Geo-strategic position.

To clarify lets take this 5th Generation Fighter as off the shelf solution..that means No Project Azm or Block III so it is based upon today..current and what if its J-20?

I would expect contributors and posters will discuss this scenario in detail

@The Eagle @airomerix @MastanKhan @messiach @Mangus Ortus Novem @Trailer23

 

[War Thunder]

Not necessary
Onlybfifth gen fighter available is chinese one which indians think is inferior to their mig21

I didn't know you had connections in the indian security apparatus?

 

[Cookie Monster]

Good Day! Gentlemen & Ladies of the PDF Forum.

There is a scenario that i am working upon and wanted PDF much vaunted contributors and posters opinion. it is essentially a what if scenario.

Premise of this scenario is PAF inducting 5th Generation Fighters in limited quantity (probably Half a Squadron or a full strength Squadron) in coming months what would be the environment. what will be the consequences in current situation..let say as of today.

What will be the implications across the border. how would it effect the overall Geo-strategic position.

To clarify lets take this 5th Generation Fighter as off the shelf solution..that means No Project Azm or Block III so it is based upon today..current and what if its J-20?

I would expect contributors and posters will discuss this scenario in detail

@The Eagle @airomerix @MastanKhan @messiach @Mangus Ortus Novem @Trailer23

In terms of what it means for Pak...not much.

If we assume everything as is...and add let's say a squadron of a 5th gen fighters like u said...and let's also assume that the 5th gen fighter is one of the best(in terms of capabilities...regardless of whatever name u wanna put on it).
--> PAF gains the ability to carry out deep strikes into Indian territory with less worries of interception by Indian jets and air defenses.
--> that capability would mean nothing bcuz RIGHT NOW economically Pak cannot sustain a prolonged war and just a squadron of 5th gen jets don't offer enough of an advantage to Pak to quickly secure a victory. India has much strategic depth...even when PAF carries out deep strikes unopposed(relatively) with its 5th gen jets aiming to destroy IAF aircrafts on the ground...they can still keep those out of range.

So while PAF gains an advantage...due to other factors...in the big scheme of things...it wouldn't amount to much.

From the Indian side...
--> Indian government and media would use that as an excuse to strike fear in their people...then use that to secure a bigger budget for their military. From that bigger budget they would start flashing money everywhere.
--> US would use this opportunity to cite Pak/China having 5th gen aircraft and wanting billions of Indian dollars...they would approve selling F35 to India. This would build Indian capability against Pak(but the main US goal would be to build it up against China) while US would also be milking India. If China raises any objections US can simply point to China selling Pak the 5th gen jet and use that as the justification to "bring balance to the region".

Result: Unnecessary escalation of an arms race which wouldn't gain much neither for India nor for Pak...and instead only leave their pockets lighter by a few billion dollars.

 

[TheTallGuy]

In terms of what it means for Pak...not much.

If we assume everything as is...and add let's say a squadron of a 5th gen fighters like u said...and let's also assume that the 5th gen fighter is one of the best(in terms of capabilities...regardless of whatever name u wanna put on it).
--> PAF gains the ability to carry out deep strikes into Indian territory with less worries of interception by Indian jets and air defenses.
--> that capability would mean nothing bcuz RIGHT NOW economically Pak cannot sustain a prolonged war and just a squadron of 5th gen jets don't offer enough of an advantage to Pak to quickly secure a victory. India has much strategic depth...even when PAF carries out deep strikes unopposed(relatively) with its 5th gen jets aiming to destroy IAF aircrafts on the ground...they can still keep those out of range.

So while PAF gains an advantage...due to other factors...in the big scheme of things...it wouldn't amount to much.

From the Indian side...
--> Indian government and media would use that as an excuse to strike fear in their people...then use that to secure a bigger budget for their military. From that bigger budget they would start flashing money everywhere.
--> US would use this opportunity to cite Pak/China having 5th gen aircraft and wanting billions of Indian dollars...they would approve selling F35 to India. This would build Indian capability against Pak(but the main US goal would be to build it up against China) while US would also be milking India. If China raises any objections US can simply point to China selling Pak the 5th gen jet and use that as the justification to "bring balance to the region".

Result: Unnecessary escalation of an arms race which wouldn't gain much neither for India nor for Pak...and instead only leave their pockets lighter by a few billion dollars.

lets be honest..there is no balance of arms per say..and you know it Rafales are very good weapon systems..PAF F-16s MLUed or Block 52+ are no match for a properly flown & trained Rafale and Rafale Pilots. lets keep JF17 out of it as it not spear tip. PAF 5th Gen fighter induction will bring balance that is urgent need of PAF.

Why are you not considering US policy on high end aircraft. they are not going to sell it to India until India complies with US policy. what will that bring is india who has 90% Russian equipment will just cancel the orders for S400 SAM system and risk its Military relationship with Russia ...will that be of no consequence.

your thoughts?
PS: Then what about Shaheen 1 SSM with Hypersonic Glide Vehicle will that come into picture.

Few years also is too early
Neither china is going to give you their not Russia forget USA

Implications are deadly, India will be forced to look towards f-35 , less likely pakfa.
But definitely it's an area where Pakistan finds itself not Ina wise position to throw money at

That if india complies with US Policy and risk its 90% equipment supplier Russia. plus F35 in IAF will bring Shaheen 1 SSM with HSG vehicle into fruition...

Hi,

Work on the 5th gen project but do not procure any at this time---. Keep adding the 4th or 4.5 gen as long as you can---.

Hi,
Are you serious! do you really expect that Pakistan industrial resources are capable of pulling this off project AZM without help. Sqn or two worth of 5th Gen will actually help Project AZMs prospects in PAF.

to operate and utilize 5th Gen fighter requires different set of expertise..you yourself said it. that GAP is to big to be fulfilled by current expertise.

 

[MastanKhan]

lets be honest..there is no balance of arms per say..and you know it Rafales are very good weapon systems..PAF F-16s MLUed or Block 52+ are no match for a properly flown & trained Rafale and Rafale Pilots. lets keep JF17 out of it as it not spear tip. PAF 5th Gen fighter induction will bring balance that is urgent need of PAF.

Why are you not considering US policy on high end aircraft. they are not going to sell it to India until India complies with US policy. what will that bring is india who has 90% Russian equipment will just cancel the orders for S400 SAM system and risk its Military relationship with Russia ...will that be of no consequence.

your thoughts?
PS: Then what about Shaheen 1 SSM with Hypersonic Glide Vehicle will that come into picture.



That if india complies with US Policy and risk its 90% equipment supplier Russia. plus F35 in IAF will bring Shaheen 1 SSM with HSG vehicle into fruition...



Hi,
Are you serious! do you really expect that Pakistan industrial resources are capable of pulling this off project AZM without help. Sqn or two worth of 5th Gen will actually help Project AZMs prospects in PAF.

to operate and utilize 5th Gen fighter requires different set of expertise..you yourself said it. that GAP is to big to be fulfilled by current expertise.

hi

i donot know from where you got that idea from pakistan doing 5th gen by themselves alone.

i have never stated that. So please dont direct it at me.

my stand has always been JV—-in other words—-Joint Venture

 

[Cookie Monster]

lets be honest..there is no balance of arms per say..and you know it Rafales are very good weapon systems..PAF F-16s MLUed or Block 52+ are no match for a properly flown & trained Rafale and Rafale Pilots. lets keep JF17 out of it as it not spear tip. PAF 5th Gen fighter induction will bring balance that is urgent need of PAF.

There isn't...the "balance" is one of those things cited by the major world players to make sure their pawn in the game doesn't die off. Have u not heard this? US cites this many times while selling weapons to Pak or India. For example if India protests US selling some weapons to Pak...US would say something like "it wouldn't disturb the balance of power in the region" to appease India. This is what I was referring to.

As for counter for Rafale...the Rafale is indeed a very potent aircraft. But u shouldn't underestimate the JF17 block III as far inferior to it. At the very least bcuz China wants Pak in the region to be strong enough to fend off India so that India can't focus all its might on China...I assume the Chinese put some of their best work into block III avionics.

With an AESA radar(rumored to be KLJ7A with a range of 170km for fighter sized target...though that may vary for Rafale depending on Rafale's capability)...potentially coupled with PL15...it can probably go head to head with Rafale in terms of BVR. I assume the EW capability has also been significantly improved.
If it can't go head to head and I have overestimated the block III...still an important point to consider is that in modern warfare assets hardly operate alone by themselves. This means that as we already saw in Feb...JF17 block III would be operating with Pak's AWACS and possibly DA20 Falcon too. PAF's AWACS and ground radars can probably pick up Rafale way before Rafale can pick up JF17 block III on its radar...a PL15 can be fired from JF17 and guided by PAF's AWAC that has picked up the target on its radar.

In conclusion...Rafale is indeed a capability boost for IAF but it has so far not been acquired in enough numbers to give a significant advantage to IAF while they are taking on PAF at their home base(inside Pak under the cover of SAMs, ground radars, airborne assets like AWACS and DA20 Falcon).

Why are you not considering US policy on high end aircraft. they are not going to sell it to India until India complies with US policy. what will that bring is india who has 90% Russian equipment will just cancel the orders for S400 SAM system and risk its Military relationship with Russia ...will that be of no consequence.

your thoughts?

Most of the 90% Russian equipment u mention is old. Other than S400...and a couple other systems like Su30(even that's like a good 15 or more years ago) most of it is obsolete. For a majority of their recent acquisitions India has purchased those through Western countries. The major concern that the US has is the F35's radar signature getting into Russian hands(and leaking from there to basically anywhere else). This is why S400 is a major thorn like for example when it comes to Turkey. The same could be an issue with India...but IMO in the big scheme of things where the US wants India to balance out China...I think US would still try to give India the capability that comes with the F35. They can come to an agreement to deploy S400 far enough away from wherever F35 is deployed.

PS: Then what about Shaheen 1 SSM with Hypersonic Glide Vehicle will that come into picture.

That if india complies with US Policy and risk its 90% equipment supplier Russia. plus F35 in IAF will bring Shaheen 1 SSM with HSG vehicle into fruition.

It wouldn't risk anything from Russia...everyone loves money...this has been true since the creation of mankind. India flashes money and everyone(including Russians) race to bag those billions. If Russia wanted to cut India off they would've already done so...India has bought way more western defense equipment in the last decade than it did before...and yet Russia didn't do anything except maybe express displeasure behind closed doors to Indian leadership. This however doesn't mean that they don't want to make future deals worth billions with India. It's open market nowadays...gone are the days of the cold war and being strictly in the camp of one or the other. If u throw money around they will all sell u whatever u want.

Moral of the story is that Pak needs to strengthen it's economy...as we can see above with India having everyone drooling to get a piece of their pie...Pak should learn from it.
Pak needed a strong economy yesterday...still though I guess better late than never. Without a strong economy as I already mentioned any advantage of a 5th gen in PAF is meaningless. Pak cannot acquire top of the line defense equipment without a strong economy and Pak cannot sustain a long drawn out war without a strong economy.

As for the hypersonic glide vehicle...that's a debate for another day. A lengthy topic all on its own. For now let's stick to what u proposed here in this thread.

 

[TheTallGuy]

So US is already offering India replacement of S400

US Pitches American Weapons System to India as Alternate to Russia's S-400 Missile
Defense
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201912...s-alternate-to-russias-s-400-missile-defence/

any thoughts?

@Cookie Monster @MastanKhan

 

[Ultima Thule]

So US is already offering India replacement of S400

US Pitches American Weapons System to India as Alternate to Russia's S-400 Missile
Defense
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201912...s-alternate-to-russias-s-400-missile-defence/

any thoughts?

@Cookie Monster @MastanKhan

And are they going to induct PAC-3 or THAAD, S-400 is done deal

 

[TheTallGuy]

And are they going to induct PAC-3 or THAAD, S-400 is done deal

Then we have to leave out F-35 option for IAF

 

[Ultima Thule]

Then we have to leave out F-35 option for IAF

No, there is other ways to disable Indian S-400 like suicide jet drone/CM/loitering munitions/ long range MRLS etc etc

 

[Cookie Monster]

So US is already offering India replacement of S400

US Pitches American Weapons System to India as Alternate to Russia's S-400 Missile
Defense
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201912...s-alternate-to-russias-s-400-missile-defence/

any thoughts?

@Cookie Monster @MastanKhan

IMO India wouldn't go for it as a replacement for S400. They could potentially get the American SAM systems in addition.

 

[MastanKhan]

So US is already offering India replacement of S400

US Pitches American Weapons System to India as Alternate to Russia's S-400 Missile
Defense
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201912...s-alternate-to-russias-s-400-missile-defence/

any thoughts?

@Cookie Monster @MastanKhan

Hi

and that way the US will have total control over what india can do.

Kashmir will be free, india would not be able to suppress any freedom movement if it went on a large scale.

it would basically mean end of india.

india exists with soviet weapons, american major weapons systems are a trap for india.

Let india try and see what happens---.

 

[Armchair]

If PAF goes for half a squadron of J20s, we would be able to threaten the southern flank of India, which is not properly defended.
This would mean India would have to shift at least 4 squadrons, radars, awacs, etc to Defend the Southern flank, meaning this equipment would not be available for offence against Pak.

I would say least J20s or Su35s for 5 years until project Azm matures.

The way things are going war can start anytime between now and 5 years from now.