I think entire South Asia because India also imports a lot of electronic items from China, right?
- PRTP GWD
Go Read This slowly and comprehend.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/2...cause-wuhan-flu-has-unmasked-it-to-the-world/
@abcxyz0000
Now read the above article with - my prediction about what is going to happen.
China's reputation would have taken a beating after this. Its days of being a factory to the world are over. OBOR is either dead, or will be increasingly risky. China's economy will be hit by the double whammy of the virus and falling (and irrecoverable) exports. I see bipartisan consensus in the US on the long term threat posed by China.
Europe and the US will take a long time to recover.
I don't see the Trump presidency surviving his handling of the virus. With a democrat in the white house, the biggest impact I see is a thaw in relations with Iran and Venezuela. It will bring even more oil into the market, in a scenario of depressed demand from the West and China. The US won't mind the fall in prices because the Dems are against fracking for Shale oil and would be happy to live with cheap imported gas. That will positively impact India's foreign exchange reserves and the Rupee. Both Saudi and Iran would be too concerned with surviving in an era of low oil prices, than trying to either export Jihad, or destabilise the Middle East.
Erdogan would be in the same situation (politically and economically weaker) - assuming he is still in power agfter 2022.
The EU experiment would be almost over. I see them struggling to survive another recession rather than ganging up against Russia (the other winner in the virus war). With no becoming less relevant in Europe, the Syrian war almost over and no inclination of NATO to be involved in Afghanistan and the Middle East, there might be a recognition on the part of the US, that China is the principal adversary and I see a new grouping of US+Japan+Taiwan+SoKo+Vietnam+India emerge to take on China. This would be far too powerful for China to take on, so I see China trying to reset its relationship with India, possibly by being less visibly supportive of Pak (which becomes more of a basket case than it currently is).
Politically a lot of pluses for India, Economically, India would strengthen domestic manufacturing (reducing Chinese imports) in areas like drug APIs and electronics. A consequence would be emerging as an alternative to China for low cost manufacturing, which is where the low tax regime for new manufacturing companies will, IMO, have a big impact.
