1 Introduction
On September 25, 2022, a satellite image of North Korea's Panghyeon Airfield revealed an unfamiliar aircraft in one of the facilities at the airfield.
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Enlarged view of a hangar or maintenance facility (unmanned aircraft parked in the center) Image ©︎ 2022 Maxar Technologies
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Enlarged view of the location of the drone Image ©︎ 2022 Maxar Technologies
This Fangbang Airfield is an airbase equipped with older MiG-17 fighter jets located in Gusong, Northwestern North Pyeongan Province, North Korea, and differs from other bases in that it is equipped with extensive maintenance facilities.
It is also known as the airfield where then First Secretary Kim Jong-un personally piloted a light aircraft purportedly made in Japan around late March 2015.
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Fangbang Airfield is located about 100 kilometers north of Pyongyang
In addition to the fact that the newly confirmed aircraft is completely different in shape from existing North Korean aircraft, and in light of the "Five-Year Plan for Scientific Development of National Defense and Weapon System Development (commonly known as the Five-Year National Defense Plan)" presented by North Korea at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January 2021, it is likely that the aircraft will be developed as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), as mentioned in the plan. (For the sake of convenience, we will refer to them as UAVs in this article.
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Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) exhibited at JSDF-2021 (left side of the screen)
2 Location of the shooting
The detailed location where this aircraft was found is on a corridor near the entrance and exit of a hangar or maintenance facility of a group of facilities on the airfield (coordinates: 39°55'5.23 "N, 125°12'45.53 "E).
Usually, aircraft awaiting (or finished) maintenance are parked in this corner of the facility, and in the past many MiG-23 fighters, Su-25 ground attack aircraft, and An-2 transport aircraft have been seen (between September 20 and 25, two An-2 aircraft were moved north of what appeared to be UAVs). (Between September 20 and 25, two An-2s were moved to the north of what appeared to be UAVs).
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Image ©︎ 2022 Maxar Technologies
3 About the UAV photographed this time
(1) Examination of whether or not it is a UAV
As mentioned above, the shape of the aircraft is clearly different from the known North Korean aircraft. We considered the possibility that it could be another aircraft or the wreckage of some other aircraft based on the image quality and sunlight reflection.
1 The shape of the aircraft is peculiar and does not appear to be a manned aircraft
2 There is absolutely no case of a damaged aircraft being parked at the airfield.
(3) There are reports that small UAVs have been tested at Fangye Airfield in the past.
(3) The fact that there have been reports of small UAVs being tested at Banghyeong Airfield in the past, we have concluded that there is a very high probability that this is a UAV.
(2) Shape
Assuming that this aircraft is in fact a UAV, we observed that it has a wing with a high aspect ratio, which is a common shape for medium-altitude long-range airborne vehicle (MALE) UAVs.
Regarding the size of the aircraft, it is about 20 meters wide and 9 meters long, and its overall width is so long that it does not match that of foreign-made MALE UAVs.
In the satellite image, in addition to the absence of a horizontal tail fin, what appears to be a vertical tail fin and its shadow can be seen, but the problem arises that it is impossible to even fly without a horizontal tail fin (in general, MALE UAVs have a V-shaped wing at the rear of the fuselage that serves as both a horizontal and vertical tail fin). However, close examination of satellite imagery shows that it appears to be a V-shaped wing rather than a vertical tail, so it goes without saying that we will need to keep a close eye on future developments.
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Enlarged image of the drone (black areas are shadows) Image ©︎ 2022 Maxar Technologies
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Ref: Ethiopian Air Force's Biraktar TB2 (left) and Winged Dragon I (center and right)
Image ©︎ 2022 Maxar Technologies
(3) Related equipment
No ground control station (GCS) or other equipment that might be related to the aircraft was observed in the satellite images obtained this time. Therefore, it is unclear whether the remote control system of this aircraft will use satellite communications (SATCOM) or whether it will be limited to line-of-sight (LOS) communications only, like the well-known Turkish-made Bailaktar TB2 (the five-year defense plan calls for a 500-km radius of operation, so the latter is a possibility given the aircraft's size). (Given the size of the aircraft, the latter is likely to be the case).
(4) Armed or not armed
The Five-Year National Defense Plan mentions that UAVs "have completed the design of various electronic weapons, unmanned strike equipment and reconnaissance detection means, and military reconnaissance satellites," and that "the most important research to develop reconnaissance means, including UAVs that can conduct precision surveillance at a range of up to 500 km, will be promoted in earnest. It suggests that a wide variety of UAVs and UCAVs will be developed, but it is unclear if the UCAV photographed this time is a UCAV. However, it is not unnatural to assume that it is a UCAV based on the size of the aircraft.
The problem is armament, but this is not likely to be a major issue since a new AGM that closely resembles China's Blue Aro-11 air-to-surface missile (AGM) was displayed at the "Self-Defense-2021" national defense development exhibition held in Pyongyang in October 2021 (the missile's guidance system is unknown, but North Korea equipped and developing semi-active laser-guided anti-tank missiles (ATGMs) and a portable infrared imaging (IIR) guided ATGM that closely resembles the "Spike SR").
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New air-to-surface missiles similar to the "Blue Arrow 11" (center and far right)
(5) Others
(a) Electro-optical sensors to be installed
UAVs are usually equipped with electro-optical sensors such as forward-looking infrared (FLIR) devices as a means of search and target indication. Many may question whether North Korea possesses such advanced electronic equipment, but this does not mean that it does not have the capability to develop such equipment, as it was confirmed that the same type of sensor was installed on its naval vessels as of November 2013, and a new type of sensor was introduced in 2018.
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Electro-optical sensors for naval vessels
(a) The pros and cons of North Korea's ability to develop UAVs
Many may question the impossibility of developing UAVs, which require advanced technology, because North Korea has low technological capabilities.
However
1 Possesses a certain level of aircraft manufacturing capability through domestic production of the An-2 transport aircraft, etc.
2 The company already has experience in manufacturing and operating UAVs (including self-destruct models).
3 Must be selling UAV control technology to foreign countries through front-line entrepreneurship
4 Must be self-sufficient as there is no prospect of improvement in air power
5 In other words, we are forced to focus on the development of UAVs with low technical difficulty
6. The development of domestically produced UAVs is flourishing in Africa and Southeast Asia, and North Korea is no exception to this trend.
North Korea is no exception to this rule, and this is considered quite natural.
4 Future Trends
It has been confirmed that North Korea exhibited several types of UAVs at the time of the "Self-Defense-2021. Since the "Five-Year National Defense Plan" is expected to be accomplished in 2025, only about three years remain at this point.
Therefore, tests will be conducted and possibly inspected by Kim Jong Il. Although there are many unknowns, such as the means of attack, it can be inferred that the development of the UAV is progressing smoothly through the presence of an aircraft that appears to be the UAV photographed this time.
Although the UAV announced by North Korea does not have the capability to reach Japan, it is by no means an entity that should be ignored, as it is believed to reflect the country's current national power, including its technological characteristics.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Also a year ago rumors of test of UCAV:
