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Sanctions against Russia could have a serious impact on German Exports, GDP Growth and Jobs

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303948104579535983960826054.html

German Businesses Urge Halt on Sanctions Against Russia
Vocal Opposition Has Helped Keep Merkel From Endorsing Broader Penalties on Moscow

By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
Updated May 1, 2014 10:11 p.m. ET
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office Friday. Reuters


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BERLIN— Angela Merkel is carrying a clear message from Germany's business lobby to the White House: No more sanctions.

Several of the biggest names in German business—including chemical giant BASFBAS.XE +0.70% SE, engineering group Siemens AG SIE.XE -0.96% , Volkswagen AGVOW3.XE -1.70% , Adidas AG ADS.XE +0.27% and Deutsche Bank AG DBK.XE -0.49%—have made their opposition to broader economic sanctions against Russia clear in recent weeks, both in public and in private. (Read the latest updates on the crisis in Ukraine.)

As a result, Germany's position on additional, tougher sanctions is unlikely to shift, barring a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Ukraine—a message Ms. Merkel is expected to deliver to President Barack Obama when they meet in Washington on Friday, officials in Berlin say.

As the Ukraine crisis has worsened, German officials have faced a barrage of telephone calls from senior corporate executives, urging them not to take steps that would damage business interests in Russia, people familiar with the matter say.



At a joint press conference in Washington, D.C. Friday with U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Obama says that while the U.S. and Germany continue pursuing a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, they are united on imposing increased sanctions on Russia if necessary. Photo/Video: Associated Press

Until now, Western sanctions have targeted individuals and companies, but the U.S. is pushing for broader sanctions that could hit entire Russian sectors if the situation escalates.

In public, some German corporate chieftains have warned against escalating the measures.

"If there's a single message we have as business leaders, then it's this: sit down at the negotiating table and resolve these matters peacefully," Eckhard Cordes, a former Daimler AG executive who now heads the Ostauschuss, German industry's lobbying arm for Eastern Europe, told a recent conference in Berlin.

BASF Chief Executive Kurt Bock, whose company is a close partner with Russia's state-owned gas giant OAO Gazprom, OGZPY -1.81% recently admonished European politicians to consider the costs of sanctions and warned that unwinding the measures is often difficult. "It's up to politicians and historians to determine efficacy of boycotts, but I have my doubts," Mr. Bock said in an interview with the daily Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Herbert Hainer, chief executive of Adidas—which outfitted Russian athletes in the Soviet era and operates more than 1,000 retail outlets in the country—has suggested the West should have done more to engage Mr. Putin. "One has to wonder if someone like Putin shouldn't have been included in the process much earlier, instead of waiting until it was too late," he said.



At a joint press conference in Washington, D.C. Friday with U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ms. Merkel pointed to the May 25th elections in Ukraine as the next moment that could trigger more punitive sanctions against Russia if it doesn't stabilize the Ukraine crisis. Video/Photo: Associated Press

In most countries, it would be highly unusual for corporate executives to inject themselves into geopolitics and matters of national security with the forcefulness that a number of German business leaders have. But many of Germany's largest companies have substantial Russian operations, built in some cases over decades, and worry that tough economic sanctions would rob them of a key growth market when their home market—Europe—is stagnant.

That has led to intense pressure on Berlin. Germany's chancellor has repeatedly criticized Russia for its actions in Ukraine and warned the Kremlin it would face serious consequences if it doesn't change course. Yet Ms. Merkel has stopped short of endorsing broader economic sanctions, opting instead to impose travel bans and asset freezes on individuals with close ties to the Kremlin.

"Merkel is coming knowing that she faces a heavy debate with the Americans," said John C. Kornblum, a former U.S. ambassador to Germany who also previously served as U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs.

U.S. companies, which have less at stake in Russia compared with their European competitors, are expressing their concerns about further sanctions more privately with the Obama administration. American companies have stressed in Washington that proposed sanctions on broad sectors of the Russian economy, if pursued unilaterally, would cause Russian state-dominated industries to back out of deals with U.S. firms and open the market to competitors from Europe and elsewhere. Business officials in Washington say International Business Machines Corp. IBM -1.08% , for instance, has urged the Obama administration to take as multilateral of an approach as possible to further penalties.

Sanctions on Russia: Who is Who
Europe and the U.S. announced new sanctions in late April in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine. EU sanctions focus on individuals but U.S. sanctions also target banks and other companies. Here is a full list.



"The concern for business is that if it becomes a fragmented approach, with the U.S. going out in front of the Europeans, it won't be effective," said Myron Brilliant, executive vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "And we are worried about the boomerang effect of getting caught in the crossfire."

U.S. business dealings in Russia includeBoeing Co. BA +1.15% 's contracts with state-controlled airlines and Exxon MobilCorp.'s XOM +0.59% Arctic venture with state-controlled oil giant OAO Rosneft. This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Rosneft's chief, Igor Sechin, as well as Sergei Chemezov, head of a state conglomerate that includes aircraft production and Russian titanium used to build Boeing planes.


Exxon Mobil said it is pushing ahead with its plans to drill in Russia's Arctic seas—its biggest opportunity to discover oil and gas—though deteriorating relations between Moscow and the U.S. have increased the risks.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said the administration was continuing to hold "informational conversations" with American companies over Russian sanctions. The White House has urged top U.S. executives to scrap plans to go to the coming St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which Mr. Putin formally hosts.


On Thursday, PepsiCo Inc. PEP -0.06%said Chief Executive and Chairman Indra Nooyi canceled plans to participate in the forum. The company, though, said that the change of plans was due to a scheduling conflict rather than political tensions and that other executives from the snack-and-beverage giant would attend.



Germany isn't alone in Europe in its reluctance to take a harsher line with Moscow. Italy and Greece also have resisted a more aggressive response because of the potential impact on their economies. Some of Washington's closest military allies, including Japan, Egypt and Israel, also are cautioning the Obama administration against taking steps that could permanently rupture Mr. Putin's ties to the West, according to Asian and Middle East officials.

But Germany's size and economic weight make its voice especially crucial. Without Berlin's backing, U.S. attempts to box in Russia through sanctions and other measures will be hampered.

Some 6,200 German companies, from industrial giants such as Volkswagen to small family-owned machine-makers, are active in Russia, more than those in the rest of the EU combined. Many of those companies, both in public and behind the scenes, have warned that any sanctions affecting trade with Russia could cost tens of thousands of German jobs and hit the economy hard, officials in Berlin say.



"There's no question that Germany's economic interests would be best served by avoiding sanctions," said Klaus-Jürgen Gern, an economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a leading German economic institute.

German economic growth could decline by as much as two percentage points if harsh sanctions were leveled against Russia, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute led by Mr. Gern. Under current economic forecasts, that could push Europe's largest economy into recession.

A breakdown in Germany's trade relations with Russia could cost as many as 300,000 German jobs, according to the German government.

Germany's bilateral trade with Russia is relatively modest, at €76 billion ($105.4 billion) in 2013, and Russia accounts for about 3% of German exports. But Germany derives one third of both its gas and oil from Russia. The latter point is critical, Mr. Gern said, because a loss of access to Russian oil would hit the German economy hard. A $20-per-barrel increase in the price of crude alone would shave about one percentage point off German growth, according to the institute's analysis.

Many big German companies were active in the Soviet Union and began an aggressive expansion into Russia and its neighbors after the fall of communism. German industry's focus on heavy engineering made it well-suited to service a vast region hungry to modernize everything from its railroads to its energy sector.



German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with President Obama on Friday to discuss economic sanctions on Russia. However, she is in a difficult position because many German businesses could be negatively affected.

Russia itself accounts for a fairly modest, though not inconsequential, proportion of total revenue for most big German companies. What the figures don't reflect is the importance of Russia as a growth market.

Just days after Russia annexed Crimea, Siemens Chief Executive Joe Kaeser visited Mr. Putin at his residence outside Moscow, posing for the cameras with the Russian leader.

While Ms. Merkel has censured Russia's actions in Ukraine, Mr. Kaeser described the geopolitical crisis as "temporary turbulence."

One reason German companies have been more vocal on German foreign policy is that their home market has waned in importance. Siemens, for example, generated less than 15% of its €77 billion in global revenue in Germany last year, compared with 28% in the Americas.

That dynamic has made some German companies less beholden to their own governments than in previous decades.

"You're dealing with a global German industry that barely hangs onto its German identity, while at the same time using it to its advantage to do business in places like Russia," Mr. Kornblum said.

Deutsche Bank would suffer little direct impact from economic sanctions against Russia, but Jürgen Fitschen, the bank's co-CEO, recently warned against taking further punitive measures against Moscow, arguing that the broader economic damage could be substantial.

Martin Winterkorn said recently.

Ms. Merkel's efforts to build a united front at home against Russia have been further undermined by her predecessor as chancellor, Gerhard Schröder.

Mr. Schröder, who is the chairman of Gazprom's Nord Stream AG pipeline subsidiary and a personal friend of Mr. Putin's, traveled to St. Petersburg this week to celebrate his 70th birthday. He was photographed embracing Mr. Putin upon the Russian president's arrival.

Though Mr. Schröder's affinity for Russia and Mr. Putin are well known, the symbolism of the party as German soldiers were in the custody of pro-Russian forces in Ukraine drew harsh criticism from some in Germany.

The party, organized by Nord Stream, underscored the close ties between Gazprom and Germany's business community. Several German executives, including representatives from BASF's gas subsidiary, Wintershall, and German power company E. ON SE, attended the party, as did Germany's ambassador to Russia.

Philipp Missfelder, the foreign affairs speaker for Ms. Merkel's center-right bloc in parliament, also joined the celebration.
 
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I don't get it. Russia is not yet involved in Eastern Ukraine. It's not like sanctions could stop the chaos in Ukraine :hitwall: Or do they believe the chaos in Ukraine is entirely due to Russia?
 
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America's GDP growth has fallen to 0.1%, and they are trying to get people to sanction Russia?

Does Germany also want their GDP growth to collapse?

Why? It is much better to do business and bring benefit to all sides.
 
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America's GDP growth has fallen to 0.1%, and they are trying to get people to sanction Russia?

Does Germany also want their GDP growth to collapse?

Why? It is much better to do business and bring benefit to all sides.

The fact Obama trying to force big EU economies to sanction Russia shows America doesn't care about EU's economy, let alone its recovery. It will hurt the Europeans very hard and at the same time Russia will also suffer to some degree too and that's what the US wants. Afterall Putin gave the Americans a jab in the face when he prevented America bombing Syria and sheltering Snowden. Luckily leaders from big enterprises have lots of influences on their politicians and they prefer good ties with Russia. Putin has some nice trump cards and one of them is China if EU wishes to commit economic suicide. Man i'm laughing at the pizza boy and other anti Russian members here. The Americans and the NATO do not dare use military force and plenty European countries are holding back sanctioning Russia.
 
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The fact Obama trying to force big EU economies to sanction Russia shows America doesn't care about EU's economy, let alone its recovery. It will hurt the Europeans very hard and at the same time Russia will also suffer to some degree too and that's what the US wants. Afterall Putin gave the Americans a jab in the face when he prevented America bombing Syria and sheltering Snowden. Luckily leaders from big enterprises have lots of influences on their politicians and they prefer good ties with Russia. Putin has some nice trump cards and one of them is China if EU wishes to commit economic suicide. Man i'm laughing at the pizza boy and other anti Russian members here. The Americans and the NATO do not dare use military force and plenty European countries are holding back sanctioning Russia.

This is why I f*****g LOVE the Russians. The Yankees can't use their military option against Russia and don't have much influence over the Russian economy because they do very little trade with each other.
 
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This is why I f*****g LOVE the Russians. The Yankees can't use their military option against Russia and don't have much influence over the Russian economy because they do very little trade with each other.

Exactly, it will not hurt America if they decide to sanction Russia, but on the other hand EU does a lot of trade and they will feel the heat. I know EU politicians are America's pet dogs but those business leaders ain't no idiots either, surely they have something to say to their leaders. I believe the Americans are behind the sudden collapse of the Euro when that currency was gaining momentum vs the Dollar. EU is just a pawn the US wish to play against Russia that's all there is to it.

Bragging about the US being the No 1 military power doesn't impress Russia or China at all. Only those with some screws loose in their heads would want to declare war against the Russians. When China was a backward country we showed the Americans we will always fight when the Vietnam and Korean War broke out. It comes as no surprise the Americans didn't take any military actions against our neighbor after its nuclear tests despite sending stealth bombers near North Korea and holding military drills with the South. Yankee don't have the balls to fight Russia or China mano a mano.
 
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Only this time, Yankees play the role of the Nazis.

Unhappily the Nazis are the masked Spetznatz special forces now in pitched battle with the Ukrainian National Army.

The Russian's game now is to beat the announced Ukrainian nationwide vote scheduled for 25 May to President and Parliament with a Russian Spetznatz driven 11 May separatist vote. I believe an honest uncoerced vote will find those Putin refers to as Russian speakers are not in favor by a two to one against idea...they do not ever want to be under Russian rule again, ever since Ukraine escaped from old Soviet rule.
 
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This is why I f*****g LOVE the Russians. The Yankees can't use their military option against Russia and don't have much influence over the Russian economy because they do very little trade with each other.

You are too young to remember that:

1. After WW II the US developed the Marshall Plan used to help Germany, Italy, all of Europe start life fresh and anew post WW II. That was and still remains how much the US cares about after war recovery at our US taxpayer expense.

2. The US did the same thing with and thru General MacArthur for Japan. Japan's well developed democracy today cost the US taxpayers a bundle but was and is well worth it.

3. Russia's economy includes many US to Russia economic and business initiatives. Russia seized most of Eastern Europe as "Stalin's war prizes" after WW II. After WW II and after the Cold War ended, Eastern European nations have largely gotten economic help and commercial and industrial recovery from the US, the EU, and two major institutions e US and our Allies founded after WW II, the International Monetary Fund, and dthe US Export Import Bank.

Some of the younger readers and commenters on this site show a thin awareness of what has and still is happening for world benefit.

The distortion of one of the major world religions by a bunch of self appointed religious murdering heretics has been going on for years now, in SW Asia, parts of Africa and parts of the Middle East.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is a sick idea.
 
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Hm.... So Germany has a huge exports to Russia, But Russia also has huge exports of Oil and Gas from Russia to EU.
 
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I entirely agree with you, all Western leaders have the same mindset as Adolf Hitler.
This is agony. Western leaders realize that their centuries of parasitic domination now close to end. So they rush to extremes - make a anti-Chinese pivot in Asia. Bring in a coup to power Nazis in Ukraine, torturing and burning alive people. Throw thousands and thousands of crazy terrirists-cannibals from around the world against brave Syrian people...
 
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